Vilma in a 3-4 (1 Viewer)

[Bob_Magaw]

just wondering if others see a drop in production (especially a significant one) associated with the scheme change, such that they think it might be sell high time...

or wait & see, in case it is minimal, negligible hit?

in the 4-3, i think vilma is the #1 IDP to have in dynasty leagues...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I wouldn't worry about him. Donnie Edwards was all right in a 3-4 last year.

 

[ffchamp1]

just wondering if others see a drop in production (especially a significant one) associated with the scheme change, such that they think it might be sell high time...

or wait & see, in case it is minimal, negligible hit?

in the 4-3, i think vilma is the #1 IDP to have in dynasty leagues...

He could drop a bit but they do not have the personel to run a full time 3-4. Couple that with the fact that he is their best playmaker, I believe the DEF will be centered around him so a small drop would be the most IMOTom

 

[Rovers]

Chase and I went at this topic pretty hot and heavy on the main board last week or so....

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=235079

Edwards is a real exception to the rule though, IMO.

I think the best gold standard comparison might be Zach Thomas. Saban used a 3-4/4-3 hybrid, and Thomas still racked up the numbers, even though most depth charts show Miami in a 4-3. The fact remains however, that something like 8 out of the top ten LB's were in 4-3 schemes, and most of them are MLB's.

At this point, it's very hard to guess at, and will remain so until the end of the preseason, when we will all have a better idea of how much 3-4 Mangini will run.

Having said all of that, I think Vilma won't remain at the top of LB's for FF purposes. He could stay in the top five, but these reports that Kassell will be an OLB really has me scratching my head. He's a natural to be on the inside with Vilma. For that matter, I think Hobson could end up in the middle too.

As a rabid Jets homer, here is my best guess. Mangini will mix things up... a LOT. 3-4, 4-3, and even including lining Vilma up on the outside as a pass rushing OLB situationally. I think Vilma's tackle numbers will go down, but he may be able to make up the difference, and then some, with his big play ability. Forced fumbles and sacks could go up, and if he's in the backfield, and dropping into coverage, a couple of defensive TD's isn't far fetched.

He's the best playmaker on that defense now, and I have to think Mangini will try to put him in a position to make game breaking plays. Bottom line, the jury is out. I do however expect his IDP value to drop some.... how much is the question.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

thanx guys,

this was the kind of feedback i was looking for...

i wasn't trying to be an alarmist, but i read something recently (i read a lot & can't always remember where... i think this was pompei in recent SN) speculating that vilma wouldn't do as well in 3-4 as OGs would be getting to him more, & that got me thinking...

bloom had an interesting comp, & rovers had another... i'll give you guys some different ones still...

mangini comes from NE, so we could look at bruschi... also PIT plays a 3-4, & farrior had a monster season in 2004 (didn't do as good last year, but he was hurt a lot)...

also ray lewis used to play in 3-4 (now 4-3) & did pretty good... same with jamie sharper in HOU...

intuitively, it would seem like 3-4 ILB would have fewer tackles (a few less, anyway), being as they would divide tackles between two ILB, as opposed to one MLB...

last full season, bruschi had about 80 solos... farrior had about 73 (bruschi did augment his solos with ridiculous 44 assists, which was very close to league lead)... vilma had almost 130 solos (& 45 assists), so a drop to 80 or 70 would be pretty steep...

mitigating circumstance is, vilma could be more ray lewis, donnie edwards & jamie sharper (or thomas) than bruschi & farrior... i agree he is easily there best playmaker, & it would make a lot of sense for mangini to put him in position to make plays...

& like rover said... if he gets a few less tackles, he may make that up by getting more sacks, FFs & even INTs... the fact that in a 3-4, bruschi can freelance more, because that still leaves an ILB to plug middle, & three LBs overall for run support... so you never know if he is going to blitz or drop into coverage...

vilma is ultra fast, & imo would make a monster blitz weapon... & he had an INT & TD return against rams his rookie season.

please let us know more as we move into training camp, rovers... always nice to get the homer/insider perspective...

 

[Jene Bramel]

As a rabid Jets homer, here is my best guess. Mangini will mix things up... a LOT. 3-4, 4-3, and even including lining Vilma up on the outside as a pass rushing OLB situationally. I think Vilma's tackle numbers will go down, but he may be able to make up the difference, and then some, with his big play ability. Forced fumbles and sacks could go up, and if he's in the backfield, and dropping into coverage, a couple of defensive TD's isn't far fetched.

He's the best playmaker on that defense now, and I have to think Mangini will try to put him in a position to make game breaking plays.  Bottom line, the jury is out. I do however expect his IDP value to drop some.... how much is the question.

Do you have a link that says Vilma will be used as an outside rusher? I don't see that happening. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Mangini shoot a gap with him in a blitz like Belichick has done with Bruschi and Vrabel at times. There's no reason a 3-4 ILB can't finish among the top LB if he's got the right size, skill set, and surrounding cast. A smallish backer with trouble shedding blocks who isn't protected well by a shaky defensive line won't be productive. Tedy Bruschi finished top ten in FBG rankings in 2003 and 2004. James Farrior finished top ten in 2004. Donnie Edwards has been there four years running. Andra Davis was ranked 11th. The backer in the best fantasy position on the teams running some amount of 3-4 fronts has produced just fine.

Even though Vilma runs about 230 pounds, every scouting report I've seen has suggested that he plays much bigger than that. But as I've said in the past I see Vilma's limiting factor being the lack of a traditional NT in front of him. Dewayne Robertson, while he has the size, does not have the base strength to succeed over long stretches in a 2 gap system. He's a one gap penetrator. Ray Lewis' production dropped some in the 3-4 when he had only Kelly Gregg in front of him. If the Jets are to successfully run Belichick's hybrid system, they will need a 2 gap NT like Casey Hampton or Vince Wilfork to keep their backers clean.

In any event, I agree with Rovers. Vilma's tackle numbers are going down, but not necessarily because of the 3-4 scheme but because his teammates may not be ideal for it. I'd think the Belichick scheme allows him to get extra sacks to make up for it along the way. I'm projecting him to stay in the top ten easily and probably stay top five. Do NOT sell Vilma.

BTW, Rovers, the point you make about Nick Saban actually running a 3-4 front last year despite all the depth chart evidence to the contrary is absolutely correct. It's a interesting variation with a lot of shifted fronts with some linemen holding one gap, some two gap responsibility. It's my understanding that Saban would probably refer to it as a 3-4 because of the 2 gap role his tackle and often times an end have in his schemes.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

BTW,

i have vilma in one league, & i definitely wouldn't trade him lightly... this was more of a fact finding mission, to make a more fully informed decision... my inclination is to not trade him... or maybe wait at least a year...

donnie edwards does have jamal williams in front of him which doesn't hurt...

the estimate about is he top 10 is the rub for me... last year, vilma was #1 in overall scoring... almost 50 points higher than #10 barnett... big difference... than the gap between #10 & #20 is only a little more than 10 points...

i am inclined like jean, to think that still top 5 is more like it... but if i knew he was just going to be top 10 in next five years... i might be more likely to trade... what if odell thurman or lofa tatupu are top 5-10 next five years or more... AND are cheaper than vilma... a trade could be a double win if you get a more consistent scorer... AND a pick in the process...

bruschi & farrior were brought up... certainly farrior had a monster year in 2004... but even BEFORE he got hurt last season, he didn't have anywhere near the big plays he had the previous year when he almost was DPOY behind ed reed (where he had multiple sacks, INTs, FFs)... bruschi also gets a lot of big plays...

i THINK vilma can be just as big a playmaker... but the lifeblood of LB is tackles... vilma had almost 130 in 2005... in bruschi & farrior's last healthy full seasons, we noted their tackles were only about 80 & 70, respectively... we would then be talking about a 50-60 tackle drop...

again, i don't see him having that steep a decline... but whatever a drop he has, he may need to make a lot of sacks, INTs & FFs to make that up... OR, that is when maybe he becomes top 5 or top 10 instead of #1...

if i know he is #10... i seriously consider trading him... top 5... almost certainly keep him.

that is the rub, & an important question, imo...

 

[-OZ-]

BTW,

i have vilma in one league, & i definitely wouldn't trade him lightly... this was more of a fact finding mission, to make a more fully informed decision... my inclination is to not trade him... or maybe wait at least a year...

donnie edwards does have jamal williams in front of him which doesn't hurt...

the estimate about is he top 10 is the rub for me... last year, vilma was #1 in overall scoring... almost 50 points higher than #10 barnett... big difference... than the gap between #10 & #20 is only a little more than 10 points...

i am inclined like jean, to think that still top 5 is more like it... but if i knew he was just going to be top 10 in next five years... i might be more likely to trade... what if odell thurman or lofa tatupu are top 5-10 next five years or more... AND are cheaper than vilma... a trade could be a double win if you get a more consistent scorer... AND a pick in the process...

bruschi & farrior were brought up... certainly farrior had a monster year in 2004... but even BEFORE he got hurt last season, he didn't have anywhere near the big plays he had the previous year when he almost was DPOY behind ed reed (where he had multiple sacks, INTs, FFs)... bruschi also gets a lot of big plays...

i THINK vilma can be just as big a playmaker... but the lifeblood of LB is tackles... vilma had almost 130 in 2005... in bruschi & farrior's last healthy full seasons, we noted their tackles were only about 80 & 70, respectively... we would then be talking about a 50-60 tackle drop...

again, i don't see him having that steep a decline... but whatever a drop he has, he may need to make a lot of sacks, INTs & FFs to make that up... OR, that is when maybe he becomes top 5 or top 10 instead of #1...

if i know he is #10... i seriously consider trading him... top 5... almost certainly keep him.

that is the rub, & an important question, imo...

As you know Bob, I'm in the same situation.A month ago, I was offered pretty decent value for him, but couldn't bring myself to make the trade.

I'm more inclined to think Robertson will do alright as the NT, although I really wouldn't be surprised if the Jets take Gabe Watson in the 2nd, as he'd be the ideal fit. Bring Robertson in when they move to 4-3, and I wonder if Robertson could handle the job as a 3-4 DE.

Either way, 3-4 or 4-3, I see Vilma as a top 5, at least until the Jets offense stays on the field longer.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

hey oz,

the analogy i used with dave...

if LT traded to martz & you think he will drop to #10... but EVERYBODY ELSE thought he was #1 still... why not try to get LJ PLUS a pick premium...

or better example...

i, like you & jean, still see him at around #5 (faster & more explosive then bruschi... he should get some sacks, INTs & FFs himself)...

but IF you thought he drops to #10...

and you could get tatupu & thurman (lets say you think they are #5-#10 dynasty LBs next half decade or more) AND a high second (we are in 16 team league)... & could turn that into hawk or super mario...

would you rather have vilma or...

tatupu/thurman AND hawk/williams?

if latter,

do you think vilma could fetch that in bigger IDP league?

that is a lot... but vilma is/was to ordinary IDP weapons as a nuclear bomb is to a firecracker...

 

[Rovers]

As a rabid Jets homer, here is my best guess. Mangini will mix things up... a LOT. 3-4, 4-3, and even including lining Vilma up on the outside as a pass rushing OLB situationally. I think Vilma's tackle numbers will go down, but he may be able to make up the difference, and then some, with his big play ability. Forced fumbles and sacks could go up, and if he's in the backfield, and dropping into coverage, a couple of defensive TD's isn't far fetched.

He's the best playmaker on that defense now, and I have to think Mangini will try to put him in a position to make game breaking plays.  Bottom line, the jury is out. I do however expect his IDP value to drop some.... how much is the question.

Do you have a link that says Vilma will be used as an outside rusher? I don't see that happening. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Mangini shoot a gap with him in a blitz like Belichick has done with Bruschi and Vrabel at times. There's no reason a 3-4 ILB can't finish among the top LB if he's got the right size, skill set, and surrounding cast. A smallish backer with trouble shedding blocks who isn't protected well by a shaky defensive line won't be productive. Tedy Bruschi finished top ten in FBG rankings in 2003 and 2004. James Farrior finished top ten in 2004. Donnie Edwards has been there four years running. Andra Davis was ranked 11th. The backer in the best fantasy position on the teams running some amount of 3-4 fronts has produced just fine.

Even though Vilma runs about 230 pounds, every scouting report I've seen has suggested that he plays much bigger than that. But as I've said in the past I see Vilma's limiting factor being the lack of a traditional NT in front of him. Dewayne Robertson, while he has the size, does not have the base strength to succeed over long stretches in a 2 gap system. He's a one gap penetrator. Ray Lewis' production dropped some in the 3-4 when he had only Kelly Gregg in front of him. If the Jets are to successfully run Belichick's hybrid system, they will need a 2 gap NT like Casey Hampton or Vince Wilfork to keep their backers clean.

In any event, I agree with Rovers. Vilma's tackle numbers are going down, but not necessarily because of the 3-4 scheme but because his teammates may not be ideal for it. I'd think the Belichick scheme allows him to get extra sacks to make up for it along the way. I'm projecting him to stay in the top ten easily and probably stay top five. Do NOT sell Vilma.

BTW, Rovers, the point you make about Nick Saban actually running a 3-4 front last year despite all the depth chart evidence to the contrary is absolutely correct. It's a interesting variation with a lot of shifted fronts with some linemen holding one gap, some two gap responsibility. It's my understanding that Saban would probably refer to it as a 3-4 because of the 2 gap role his tackle and often times an end have in his schemes.

No, no link on Vilma moving outside situationally.... just some subjective guesswork on my part. The rap on Vilma not being able to shed tackles is weak, I think..... remember in the scheme the Jets used last year, the slant nose is supposed to be a 2 gap DL..... and the Jets didn't have one. He was shedding blocks last year, but his tackles were a few yards further upfield. In maybe the 4th game or so.... Vilma had a brief fistfight with Reed on the sidelines, becuase Reed was playing like a 3T one gap penetrating tackle instead of playing a two gap assignment that the scheme requires. This is why I made the Zach Thomas comparison.... he's supposed to be too small for a 3-4 too... but he isn't, and proved it. I don't think Vilma is too small either. As far as Vilma being moved to OLB sometimes.... that's a guess. I think Mangini may move his LB's around some, while the QB is at the line. That is the strength of the 3-4.... the O never knows who's coming. I think Vilma will remain on the inside primarilly, but I can see him also being moved outside in situations.

What no one knows yet is how much the 3-4 will be used..... but I do think any use of the 3-4 will drop Vilma's numbers some. Again, he may get more big plays like he did in 2004 though. That could make up for the loss in tackles.

The point I was making with Chase in that other thread is that Vilma's value will never be as high as it is now. That doesn't HAVE to mean it will drop.... but from #1, you can only go down. Remebering that there are more stud LB's than there are stud RB's.... yeah, I'd be tempted to trade him in a deal for LT2 in a dynasty league, depending on league scoring and line up rules.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

with dynasty leagues, if a guy is around 30 (like mike peterson), it is natural & obvious to think about trading while value is sky high... but when a dude is 25 & i may not be anticipating a steep dropoff (though that is the very subject of this thread), those are typically the kind of guys i like to keep... having a critical mass of young blue chippers can help you win leagues & remain competitive in league title mix for years...

of course if you can maximize value & parlay into 1-2 other blue chippers, that is cool... but draft picks (like in second round for stud IDP) are dicier... at least vilma is somewhat of a known commodity... even more so than tatupu & thurman, who i mentioned in prospective trade scenarios... though i REALLY, REALLY like what i have seen from those two so far, & think they both have extremely bright futures. very possibly future pro bowl MLBs...

 

[-OZ-]

hey oz,

the analogy i used with dave...

if LT traded to martz & you think he will drop to #10... but EVERYBODY ELSE thought he was #1 still... why not try to get LJ PLUS a pick premium...

or better example...

i, like you & jean, still see him at around #5 (faster & more explosive then bruschi... he should get some sacks, INTs & FFs himself)...

but IF you thought he drops to #10...

and you could get tatupu & thurman (lets say you think they are #5-#10 dynasty LBs next half decade or more) AND a high second (we are in 16 team league)... & could turn that into hawk or super mario...

would you rather have vilma or...

tatupu/thurman AND hawk/williams?

if latter,

do you think vilma could fetch that in bigger IDP league?

that is a lot... but vilma is/was to ordinary IDP weapons as a nuclear bomb is to a firecracker...

Maybe. I know I was scoffed at when I suggested it would take a mid 1st for me to trade Vilma. I would think a high 2nd and 2 young top LBs would be too much as well.Thurman OR Lofa and a 2nd, quite possible. And that may be worth it if you have the roster space, I know my roster space is limited, and believe yours to be as well.

But sure, if you can trade one LB you consider to be #10 for 2 LBs ranked 5-10 and a top IDP prospect, why wouldn't you make the deal? (I realize that oversimplifies the question, but isn't that what you're suggesting?)

FWIW, I know there were at least 5 teams interested enough in Vilma to have made offers. You might want to announce his availability.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

thats what i meant...

tatupu OR thurman + second

i wrote it clumsily...

i think that is what it would take... & it might have to be a high second, where i thought we could get hawk or williams, too...

i don't think i can twist gringo's arm to pull the trigger on something like that... probably for good reason... hard to go wrong keeping vilma...

it would be fun to see what he is worth, though...

* even though that is what it would take, that doesn't mean a lot of people would go for that... i personally wouldn't cough up tatupu OR thurman + high second for vilma, as much as i like him...

scoring system is always important... in the case of c2 league, tackle are 1.6 per, assists are .8, so that is the kind of league i prefer where IDP is weighted closer to offense studs... it increases ways you can win... you can leverage what you know on BOTH sides of the ball, to press your advantage (if you got game )...

in c2, vilma is especially valuable... i agree for just A pick it probably wouldn't make sense in that kind of league to settle for anything less than a mid-first... & if you can't get it... keep him... because that is probably about what he is worth...

 

[JayMan]

Not knowing much about the situation here... 3-4/4-3 hybrid ala Patriots I would assume?... and if Bush goes 1st, then D'Brick, Leinart to TEN... do the Jets go with Super Mario and use him like Richard Seymour in NE (moving him around on the line)?... how would you see them using Vilma then?...

If that's a possibility (please elaborate if I'm way off) - what are your projections, stats wise, for these two guys...

(I know, way too much if'es in that scenario - but that's just the fun of it!)

 

[Jene Bramel]

Bob

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for this but I do NOT look to shop/trade an IDP at the peak of his value if I know the player to have been consistently at the top of the rankings or has the very strong potential to stay there. With all the fluctuation in the middle ranks of every IDP position, I'm not shopping a Mike Peterson or Rodney Harrison or the like just because they are getting long in the tooth. I'm much more likely to hold an IDP stud one year too long than an offensive player. Get studs, hold studs. Get talent, hold talent. Those are my first and second rules of IDP roster management.

I will certainly move a stud player in favorable deal. I'm not sure I'm moving Vilma for Thurman and a pick. I Thurman but despite my hopeful projections he's yet to prove he can put up 100 tackle seasons. And those rookies sure look pretty but remain big risks. Julius Peppers, for all his hype, has been a middle of the road DL2 in many scoring systems.

JayMan

I haven't finished projecting backers yet. But most of us are in agreement that Vilma will finish in the top 10. Mario Williams? I think you hit on the major issue with Mario. It is VERY conceivable that the Jets select Mario. It wouldn't affect Vilma at all, IMO. We know what he can do in a 4-3 alignment. And the play of the NT is much more important in keeping him clear of interior lineman than the DE.

My guess would be that the Jets use more 4-3 fronts with Mario to allow him the freedom to attack the backfield rather than read and react. If not, I believe you're correct, he'd be used similar to Seymour. However, I think he could do much better than Seymour in the boxscores. Mario's freakish size and speed could allow him to be one of the rare 3-4 ends who can be an elite two way player in the big show. I'm not about to say he could be the next Bruce Smith, but the measurables and potential are there for him to perform like Smith once did.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Bob

I'm sure I'll catch some heat for this but I do NOT look to shop/trade an IDP at the peak of his value if I know the player to have been consistently at the top of the rankings or has the very strong potential to stay there. With all the fluctuation in the middle ranks of every IDP position, I'm not shopping a Mike Peterson or Rodney Harrison or the like just because they are getting long in the tooth. I'm much more likely to hold an IDP stud one year too long than an offensive player. Get studs, hold studs. Get talent, hold talent. Those are my first and second rules of IDP roster management.

I will certainly move a stud player in favorable deal. I'm not sure I'm moving Vilma for Thurman and a pick. I Thurman but despite my hopeful projections he's yet to prove he can put up 100 tackle seasons. And those rookies sure look pretty but remain big risks. Julius Peppers, for all his hype, has been a middle of the road DL2 in many scoring systems.

JayMan

I haven't finished projecting backers yet. But most of us are in agreement that Vilma will finish in the top 10. Mario Williams? I think you hit on the major issue with Mario. It is VERY conceivable that the Jets select Mario. It wouldn't affect Vilma at all, IMO. We know what he can do in a 4-3 alignment. And the play of the NT is much more important in keeping him clear of interior lineman than the DE.

My guess would be that the Jets use more 4-3 fronts with Mario to allow him the freedom to attack the backfield rather than read and react. If not, I believe you're correct, he'd be used similar to Seymour. However, I think he could do much better than Seymour in the boxscores. Mario's freakish size and speed could allow him to be one of the rare 3-4 ends who can be an elite two way player in the big show. I'm not about to say he could be the next Bruce Smith, but the measurables and potential are there for him to perform like Smith once did.

jean,thanx for giving me opportunity to clarify...

i just meant i would be more likely to trade older stud for younger stud... in league where we have peterson, we are in contention for championship past few seasons, so i am more likely to want to keep all blue chippers, young & old alike...

if we were out of contention, i might be more likely to blow the team up, parlaying older stud into couple less proven ones, to get younger & deeper...

so like you said, we probably hang on to peterson...

weird how sharper was playing at high level (jamie) than sort of careened into wall all of a sudden... no doubt some held him too long... peterson still plays really fast, & having stroud & hendo in front of him is probably the equivalent of adding a few years to his career... the poor OL playing opposite those two are probably the ones with shortened careers...

the way to turn lead into gold is if we knew exactly how long stud played at high level, than know when to sell at just the right time before they crash... but that is like timing the market... most can't do it with consistent success...

we have a dilemna in that because our team is good, we don't want to trade edge & randy moss right now, as they could be difference between winning league or not in the window of opportunity we seem to have open to us at the moment... meanwhile they are getting older & diminishing in value... older they get, more of depreciating assett...

so maybe we just use them up...

or anyway, willingly get less (maybe a lot less) later to help us win now... instead of maximizing value for future return at possible cost of having to lose now...

in general though, i liken managing a dynasty roster to simultaneously keeping a lot of plates spinning in the air (the challenge of which is a big part of the enjoyment)... when done well, it is possible to build a team to win NOW and later... it is tricky to know when to make pre-emptive moves & when to sit back & be patient...

in general, you always want to get in front of prospects you want through trade or draft... BEFORE they break out... but if they have already broken out & are on your roster... that is the nice thing about having a guy like vilma on roster... in a dynasty league, you get to reap rewards for many years...

i may sound like a hair trigger trader, but we actually make very few... a few surgical, targeted moves in last three years have yielded peppers, o-gun, peterson, vilma (through pick), witherspoon, roy williams...

some of these guys didn't come cheap... vilma cost briggs... i'd do it again, but an example of trading a stud young player to get even better young player... witherspoon cost gibril wilson & jerametrius butler... hurt last season, but looking better now...

 

[Jene Bramel]

weird how sharper was playing at high level (jamie) than sort of careened into wall all of a sudden... no doubt some held him too long...

in general though, i liken managing a dynasty roster to simultaneously keeping a lot of plates spinning in the air (the challenge of which is a big part of the enjoyment)... when done well, it is possible to build a team to win NOW and later... it is tricky to know when to make pre-emptive moves & when to sit back & be patient...

Amen, brother. I figured you felt the same. I'm on the same page with all of your dynasty points.

some of these guys didn't come cheap... vilma cost briggs... i'd do it again, but an example of trading a stud young player to get even better young player...

Yep. Here's the perfect situation. Briggs is a very nice player, but his ceiling is limited by Urlacher. If you can upgrade here do it. I essentially made the same trade to get two draft picks last year in the high second round to get my pick of last year's primo IDP class.

witherspoon cost gibril wilson & jerametrius butler... hurt last season, but looking better now...

Did you just make this deal or did you have a crystal ball last year?

 

[Tick]

I love the discussion in this thread. For me (a Vilma owner), I think he's still the safest LB to have in a dynasty, even with the shift to 3-4. He might not end up being the most valuable guy from here on out, but I think he looks like the best shot. He might have a 25% chance of being the most productive, but no other player has more than a 20% chance.

So, if the question is, "Is Vilma really the LB1?", the answer is probably no - he's got a 75% chance of not being the LB1.

But if the question is, "Is Vilma the most likely guy to be LB1", the answer for me is yes.

As for how he'll do in a 3-4, I think Bremel hit it on the head - it's all going to come down to the OL. I don't see any inherent reason that a 3-4 would allow more OGs to get through to the secondary, but it depends on how the Jets can fit their current guys into the scheme, unless they pull a Dallas and fill all their needs for a 3-4 in the draft (that was really amazing last year).

 

[-OZ-]

thats what i meant...

tatupu OR thurman + second

i wrote it clumsily...

i think that is what it would take... & it might have to be a high second, where i thought we could get hawk or williams, too...

i don't think i can twist gringo's arm to pull the trigger on something like that... probably for good reason... hard to go wrong keeping vilma...

it would be fun to see what he is worth, though...

* even though that is what it would take, that doesn't mean a lot of people would go for that... i personally wouldn't cough up tatupu OR thurman + high second for vilma, as much as i like him...

scoring system is always important... in the case of c2 league, tackle are 1.6 per, assists are .8, so that is the kind of league i prefer where IDP is weighted closer to offense studs... it increases ways you can win... you can leverage what you know on BOTH sides of the ball, to press your advantage (if you got game )...

in c2, vilma is especially valuable... i agree for just A pick it probably wouldn't make sense in that kind of league to settle for anything less than a mid-first... & if you can't get it... keep him... because that is probably about what he is worth...

We agree here, good luck if you decide to ship him. You know the "other Vilma" is probably not moving. I like your D on the whole, probably one of the best in that league. I happen to think mine is just a little behind, but LB isn't where I need improvement. (DL would be the weak link). If I could get Mario and Lofa for Vilma, I'd have to very strongly consider it. I don't think you're weak enough at a spot to make it worthwhile though.

 

[-OZ-]

I love the discussion in this thread. For me (a Vilma owner), I think he's still the safest LB to have in a dynasty, even with the shift to 3-4. He might not end up being the most valuable guy from here on out, but I think he looks like the best shot. He might have a 25% chance of being the most productive, but no other player has more than a 20% chance.

So, if the question is, "Is Vilma really the LB1?", the answer is probably no - he's got a 75% chance of not being the LB1.

But if the question is, "Is Vilma the most likely guy to be LB1", the answer for me is yes.

As for how he'll do in a 3-4, I think Bremel hit it on the head - it's all going to come down to the OL. I don't see any inherent reason that a 3-4 would allow more OGs to get through to the secondary, but it depends on how the Jets can fit their current guys into the scheme, unless they pull a Dallas and fill all their needs for a 3-4 in the draft (that was really amazing last year).

This is pretty much how I see it. Basically, Vilma is your Tomlinson on Defense. I wouldn't bet on either as the #1 overall, but I would take them over anyone else.

 

[DonFue]

Odell Thurman is overrated...trade him, not for him! If you can get a RB1 for ANY LB, do it!

 

[WhoDat]

Good, God, it is an IDP think tank in here today.

I agree that the Jets will rotate in and out of the 3-4 and 4-3. I also agree they do not have the personnel to play a standard 3-4.

Vilma is an athlete. Athletes make plays. I do not know if he is going to continue with his current numbers but, as was also mentioned, he should fall in line with other prominent LB that played out of that scheme.

You'all got your thinking caps on today. If there are any newbie IDP guys that happen to read this thread, those posted before myself no their stuff.

Find their threads or replies. Read it. Read it again. Beat your leaguemates.

 

[JayMan]

I love the discussion in this thread. For me (a Vilma owner), I think he's still the safest LB to have in a dynasty, even with the shift to 3-4. He might not end up being the most valuable guy from here on out, but I think he looks like the best shot. He might have a 25% chance of being the most productive, but no other player has more than a 20% chance.

So, if the question is, "Is Vilma really the LB1?", the answer is probably no - he's got a 75% chance of not being the LB1.

But if the question is, "Is Vilma the most likely guy to be LB1", the answer for me is yes.

As for how he'll do in a 3-4, I think Bremel hit it on the head - it's all going to come down to the OL. I don't see any inherent reason that a 3-4 would allow more OGs to get through to the secondary, but it depends on how the Jets can fit their current guys into the scheme, unless they pull a Dallas and fill all their needs for a 3-4 in the draft (that was really amazing last year).

Wouldn't the draft duo of: Mario Williams (@4) and Kamerion Wimbley (@29) address just that (as suggested by Gosselin's mock posted here today)?Just wondering if Super Mario would/should/could be a Richard Seymour clone...