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I've got VJax in five dynasties and I'm prepared to go without him all season. Even though I think that's what's going to happen I'm not moving him for anything except a top tier RB or WR. And no one's offering those. I suspect I'm pretty representative of his owners in general, i.e. I think the buy/sell spread on him is big enough that he's just not going to be moved.
I'm not sure finishing 26th in targets among all WRs counts as "a lot of balls." Any team signing will most likely be doing it as a #1 WR given the Chargers' asking price. And #1 WRs typically see well north of 107 targets in a season.
Well let's just say the quality of balls thrown to him from Rivers is pretty high. I would rather see him get 80 targets from Rivers than 100 from a bad qb.
I think Wells or Charles for VJax is a pretty good deal.
I agree. Depends on personal preferences, but I love all 3 guys. I'd probably go with my team needs.
I agree. I don't have a huge need at rb, but I'm pretty deep at wr with AJ, Desean, Austin, and Vjax. The other owner hasn't had a lot of luck with his WRs, so it's a pretty ideal trading situation. I'm still hesitant, but believe I can afford to give Vincent in order to create a little better situation for me at rb. Thanks for the opinions. I'd say it's an equal trade, and that's what I'm going for if I accept an offer from anyone.
I hear all the V Jax dynasty owners but can we revert back to the question? Where do you see him in a startup dynasty? When do you consider it a reach to nab him? I am very up in the air about this and would love to hear your opinions.
Charles went 13, V-Jax 55 in my PPR start up that started on SaturdayI took V-Jax a month ago at pick 49 in a start up $750 leagueI hope this helps you outLooks like a 5th is where he will go.
Nicks went 46, V-Jax 49 in my $750 leagueI just took Nicks last night at 48 and V-Jax went 55 like I said earlier in the start up I am running now.Seems like close value, Nicks is supposed to become EliteThey feel like similar players.Now I understand your regret because you gave Nicks up. I did the same thing I had pick 46 passed on Nicks in the $750 then took Jackson at 49.This draft now I went Nicks over Jackson.
That does help a bit. It's so hard to relate to these dynasty situations due to rosters, etc. It seems as if it's easier to get an okay rb like Wells or Moreno, and more difficult to get a top 10 wr like Vincent when you start 3 wrs, and 2 rbs. Maybe that's just my perception though.
Agree. In one league the owner wanted James Jones and a first for Vjax. I jumped at the offer. I mean, I can live without Jones. And the first obviously won't be playing until next year.Not the best offer on his part, but I loved it. And I'm with you, right now I'm not giving him up at all. I mean, there's no reason to.
It's dropped some. It just hasn't dropped as much as the circling sharks would like. I had him at #4 before the contract squabbles, and now he's down to 6th. As the season approaches and a holdout becomes even more of a certainty, he'll probably drop a bit more, but he's not falling out of the top 10.
Okay, but those aren't the options. It's whether you'd rather have 110 balls from Rivers or 150 balls from an average QB.If VJax averages 8 yards per target (a not very special number) over 150 targets, that's 1200 yards. In order to hit 1200 yards on 110 balls, he'd need to average 10.9 yards per target, which would be a pretty darn spectacular total for a receiver with 100+ targets. I think 8 ypt on 150 targets with a mediocre QB is far more doable than 11 ypt on 110 targets with Philip Rivers.
Bad math.25% more targets will result in more catches even if the QB is completing passes a full 10% lower then the "better QB". That 10% represents roughly 4/5 of the leagues starting QB's...meaning if VJ's targets go up 25%...he virtually gaurenteed to catch more passes....and in most cases, A LOT more passes.
Yards per target seems like a complete made up stat. You can't get yards from targets and I feel like it can't really be used when evaluating a WR. However last year, VJ had 1167 yrds on 107 targets....that's 10.9 yds/target. Andre Johnson only had 9.2 yards per target, does that make VJ better? Yards per target have to go down the more someone is thrown the ball. He also had one of the highest YPC at 17.2. That's VJ's game, he is a big time play maker and having Gates in the lineup is was makes it possible for him to make plays downfield. I would like to see VJ's targets go up, but I would also like to see him on the field. He is worthless this year and who knows how well or what team he ends up on next year.VJ is what he is, a top 10 wr when he plays. I think holding out hope that he makes it to top 5 when he goes to another team is a bit of a stretch. I think Rivers should get a lot of credit fo how well VJ has played recently.
I agree with this. I think it's dropped, but just a tick. Not enough for those of us that own him to bail, and not enough for those looking for a deal.As an owner, I'm prepared to be without him this season, but I still value him about the same as before. As far as a startup goes, I think I would take him in just about the same spot as I would if he were playing, maybe a round later if I thought I could get him there.
So are you abandoning your other argument and just trying to find things to support you predetermined conclusion on him now? Sounds like you are going off of gut feeling, the facts be damned.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
I don't see how you can go wrong in giving either away. Being that it's a dynasty, Wells has good value, equal to Vincent in my mind, maybe a little less. Of course, maybe that's because I'm on the other end of something similar as noted in my post above. Sjax has good value for this year, and maybe next. So I suppose for you it all depends on what you're playing for. As for me, I always want to play for now, but not at a total disregard for the future. Since you're in a related boat to me, do you mind giving me your thoughts? I hope that helps.BradtheAg said:
My ego usually dictates that I'm playing for right now, even if I try to convince myself to build. I'm new to dynasty and don't have much patience for losing in the interest of the big picture. The league is a modified dynasty where the number of players you keep is dictated by how you finished and I have a good squad for the upcoming season except for WRBreesPalmerRiceSJaxBeanieBarberCrabBoweHolmesDriverWittenI'm not going to have much opportunity to pick up quality WR help in our FA draft because I traded a lot of picks away to acquire Brees. Basically I'm trying to decide if I can compete this year, and whether having Beanie will affect that. Its going to hurt to take a 0 all year from VJax but in the long run it could make my squad quite a bit stronger. Then again, trading Beanie away makes my RBs look a little on the old side as I'm not sure what SJax/Barber have left in the tank.Now that I've typed this all out, maybe the correct play is to try for VJax + FA draft picks for SJax. If I could acquire VJax and snag a TO/Jabar Gaffney type as a temporary holdover it might work both ways
You stated he got a lot of balls in SD. Then someone pointed out he was 26th in the NFL. Then you changed your argument to state he got better quality throws in SD. Which is not what you stated in your first argument that was just plain wrong. You are showing a classic case of confirmation bias. Where you have you mind made up. And then you gets facts that contradicts that but you choose to ignore those facts. It's not a personal attack, we all do it. You are just illustrating it almost perfectly in this thread.
Solid lineup. What does his team look like? I believe Sjax has at least 2 years left in the tank, thus I believe your need is wr. If you were to give Beanie for Vincent, then I believe Sjax + Rice next year, along with those wrs makes you a very strong contender, depending on scoring system. I'm not sold on Bowe, and the Jets just won't pass enough to make Holmes worth as much as he was. Driver is old, so it almost appears as if you have the problem with age or situation either way.So in summary, you're not going to miss Beanie much this year except on bye weeks, and you'll still have 2 solid rbs next year, plus a great wr in Vincent if you decide to go that route. Of course, for the bye weeks, you could start Barber and be fine.
He's in worse shape than I amCasselJacobsBradshawForteC TaylorF JonesLynchFitzJenningsVJaxCelekHe's got quite a few early FA draft picks and there should be some value left when he picks (Kolb, Garcon, Mike Wallace etc).Thanks for the advice - We're negotiating now, I'll let you know how we turn out
How did he only end up with Cassell? I hope he's able to use some of those picks to grab a qb. Vincent is really hurting him, otherwise very solid at wr, and loads of potential at rb. I can see why he's wanting to improve that rb situation, its just all potential or he's waiting on bounce back years.Not a problem on the advice. I'll be anxious to hear how it turned out, and hopefully able to use what you've done to help me negotiate.
You are right, that was an excellent post stating that he got the 26th most targets. I didnt have the numbers in front of me. You know who else got a lot of balls? Calvin Johnson at 142. Yet he was in a terrible offense that was playing from behind all year. In non-ppr VJ scored 172pts verses 120 pts for CJ. Its not all about targets. If it was all about targets, players like Davone Bess, TO, Santanna Moss, Donald Driver would all go before Vincent Jackson. In my original post I stated that unless he went to a high powered offense like the Colts, then I dont see much improvement. Please try to keep up. I have no preconcieved notion of Vincent Jackson. Hell, I took him in the Second round of a Dynasty startup in May. I think that he has great talent, but he is a knucklehead. If you want to hold on to him all year on your bench, then more power to you. Chargers must not think to much about him or they woulda signed him long term. They obviously think its Philip Rivers that makes that offense go, not VJ.VJ finished 8th in nonppr and 11th in ppr. Thats a great season, but expecting him to blow by those numbers next year if he is at a new team is a bit presumptious. IMO.IMO=In my opinion and I have no stats to back that up with
How is YPT a made-up stat? SAT Analogy time: Yards Per Target is to Yards Per Reception as Yards Per Attempt is to Yards Per Completion. Is Yards per Attempt a made-up stat? Should we start judging QBs strictly on yards per completion?
Jackson, no question. The talent gap between Jackson and Bradshaw is massive. I would trade four Ahmad Bradshaws for one Vincent Jackson, holdout or no.
Last I checked you only get points for yards completed.
I get what you're saying, and as a Vincent owner I'm not concerned about that at all. You say he had 2 out of 5 that he broke 1000, but isn't that the norm for the 3rd and 4th year to be the breakout season for a stud wr. If that's the case, then he was on schedule to do so, and did it. I suppose it all depends on the team. If he were to go to Chicago, Washington, or what if he took Moss's place after this year with NE? At the same time, he could end up at a place like Seattle or Buffalo, maybe even Denver. It's really hard to tell, and from this owner, I'm still not sure I want to let him go due to massive upside. But as you said, those guys can tank, and you know what, so can many others who aren't traded. I just wanted to present a counter argument.
I agree, and I see you posted in the other thread. I'm trying not to be swayed too much one way or the other. I just acquired Jackson in dynasty but this season looks lost to me. Next season is a huge question mark because of the CBA. So he could be two years out of football before he takes another snap. And that snap could be with Cleveland or Buffalo for all we know. He's a good player, but I haven't seen anything to suggest he's a dominant talent. So all things being equal, I am very uneasy on him at this point. I'd buy him but only for a bargain right now. I wouldn't sell him for a bargain right now so he kind of sits in fantasy football purgatory.
Yep, could be two years, which means one year for everyone else, too. If I decide to keep him, the one thing I do like about this situation is at least he'll be able to choose to a certain extent where he goes. I can't imagine that guy going to Buff, Clev, or any real bad place. He's accustomed to winning, so I imagine he'll try to go to a team that is in a position to do so. I simply believe his upside is worth taking that chance on, if it's at little cost. For me that's keeping him, for others that might be trading him, or for him. Good thoughts.
The only thing stopping V-Jax from becoming a top 5 WR is Norv Turner.
