Hope you got a good nights sleep. I am in full agreement. There is a logical process here as just defined by David Dodds. Patience is the key.I have played fantasy football for 20+ years now, going back to when USA Today used to run its annual contest in the newspaper. I still have the t-shirt that I won. My how things have changed and evolved.Other sites have cheatsheets earlier, but I would argue that most are very bad. The top guys may be similar, but the core of their rankings is to just reiterate who tops the actual results, etc. This is because they spend little time on these rankings and then wait for people like us to grind through immense calculations and then they adjust accordingly after seeing our results.
The injury report does not come out until Wednesday night. And if you don't know who practiced Wednesday (the first real day of practice, how sure are you that a player will play?)
The Game Predictor that I have created takes in all of these different inputs.
- Injury Info (MRIs + NFL Injury Report)
- Historical Matchup Data
- Last 4 Weeks Matchup Data
- Historical Trends between the teams
- Target Data
- Actual results
- Depth Charts
- NFL Line
- FP Matchup Data
- Weather Report
- Players in the News
This process needs all of these inputs to crunch the baseline numbers. This process takes me approximately 5 hours to do each week. I start as soon as the injury report gets released (usually around 4-6 pm PT)
From here, I break down the players into projections. This takes about 6 hours to do correctly.
Other sites do projections that make no sense whatsoever. Some predict full numbers for TDs, etc. Most of the numbers that other sites produce do not match NFL historical norms. Add up all the yards the QBs are suppose to get. Some sites overstate this by as much as 10-15%.
Do I think our numbers are better? Yes I know they are. Because they are derived within a framework that makes sense. Our data matches historical norms. Our data makes sense to how the game is likely to be played. The TDs, interceptions, etc are listed as fractions so they add up to the expectations.
These numbers then feed the custom cheatsheets, the lineup dominator, etc.
I understand people wanting numbers sooner, but this is basically a case of faster meaning significant lower quality. That is not the approach we want to take here.
We release the upgrades, waiver wire, injury report, Top 200 forward, FP matchups, target info, etc all before Wednesday to guide people to what free agents to pick up. But to accurately predict the games and player projections for the week ahead, we need until Thursday to get these released. And to even do that, it means I usually do not sleep Wednesday night.
I have also followed this site for the last 3 or is it 4 years now. My year end results speak for themselves, day in and day out this site is a WINNER. A perfect science it is not. Leading edge - Yes
Speaking from a fantasy football junkie standpoint......I understand that I too am impatient as I scour for useful tidbits everyday. Now it's Thursday and I will be looking forward to receiving the hard work that David, Joe and Team will put together. I follow the upgrades, downgrades, the top 200, the news, the forums - And I also put it all into perspective - balance in life. I am aware that too much of this is unhealthy.