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Week 07 2023 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

SF - if Watson plays @ IND is he an auto start over tyrod Taylor vs WAS (presuming Jones is out)? Could promote Tyson Bagent and start him (LVR). 🤔

If Diantae Johnson plays (LAR) start him over Waller (WAS) and Dev Henderson (PIT)?

bye weeks suck!
Bagent and D.Henderson are 100% non-options in my book.

I can see the argument for Tyrod but what's his upside, really? I mean, yes with the way Deshaun has played Tyrod could outscore him for sure. It's also a good matchup at home. But even if I believed in my heart of hearts Tyrod would be the better player does that make him a smarter play than Watson? IDK

Personally I prefer to be wrong with my best players in the lineup
Watson>Tyrod

Diontae v Waller is a pretty even matchup. Diontae has been a full go in practice all week and I think he steps in and sees his normal 8-10 targets. Waller is starting to look like the guy we hoped but in that offense I don't see him as being a reliable option and I think his target ceiling is lower. He probably has a bit more TD upside but not by much IMO

Diontae>Waller
 
Half PPR, moderate favourite after starting Kamara:

Diontae @ Rams
Flowers v Lions
I'll happily pick Flowers in this one. I like Diontae to come back and be his normal self but I think Flowers is in an overall better position to succeed.

Flowers>Diontae
 
PPR league. Need one for flex:

* K. Ingram @SEA -- Seems to be splitting with D. Williams and the rookie. Gamescript could be against him here.

* W. Robinson vs WASH -- Wash secondary is terrible, but Robinson is more of a short route guy. Had a decent week last week...something like 6 for 80. Looks like D. Jones out although that could be a good thing. Weather could be an issue. Windy.

* JN Njigba vs AZ - Good matchup. At home. More importantly, DK Metcalf is a GTD. NJigba's metrics are on the rise. Breakout coming?

Which one?

Thanks
 
Its odd that these 2 qbs havent thrown for more tds than they have given the weapons they each have at wr....
What?
Kupp has played two games. The rams leading receivers are a late round rookie and a 2nd year player who didn’t look great last year. Their lead running back is also a 5th round pick in his second year. The rams were supposed to be bad this year but Stafford Is keeping them competitive. All told, Stafford is playing great.
 
Who do you guys like better at QB this week? 6pts passing TDs, 6pts rushing Tds. 1 pt 25 passing, 1 pt 10 yards rushing. no negatives for turnovers.

Stafford at home vs Pittsburgh
Geno at home vs Arizona

Neither have exactly tore it up this year.
I don't expect either to light it up. It's a real coin toss. I think the Rams probably need to pass more to be successful. Based on that, and not much else

Stafford>Geno
 
Same question, different week.

QB, pick 1, std scoring

Goff @ Ravens
Howell @ Giants


I went against the grain last week and started Goff on the road, it paid off. Ravens should be more difficult but the best QB they have faced all season is Stroud in his first ever NFL start, so hard to gauge if they are actually good or not.

Detroit vs Baltimore should be a higher scoring game, and BobbyLayne will be in the house so I expect Goff to show off, therefore I am leaning that way. Anyone want to talk me out of it?
I like Howell a lot and he will probably not disappoint. But, right now Goff is the QB of one of the best offenses in one of the best teams in the league.

Goff>Howell
 
Not really specific to me but a general WSIS question heading into Sunday if someone needs to add a last minute lotto ticket.

ppr, pick 1:

D Henderson vs Steelers
R Freeman vs Steelers
M Gaskin vs Steelers
Z Evans vs Steelers

There has been a lot of discussion in the players threads but I suspect most of it is heavily influenced by which RB the poster did or did not get off of waivers this week. Interested in the perspective of the experts in this thread.
I'm team Evans. He's been on the roster all year. That means, for whatever reason, the Rams like him more than the others. Not buying the "it's just special teams" argument either.
 
PPR league. Need one for flex:

* K. Ingram @SEA -- Seems to be splitting with D. Williams and the rookie. Gamescript could be against him here.

* W. Robinson vs WASH -- Wash secondary is terrible, but Robinson is more of a short route guy. Had a decent week last week...something like 6 for 80. Looks like D. Jones out although that could be a good thing. Weather could be an issue. Windy.

* JN Njigba vs AZ - Good matchup. At home. More importantly, DK Metcalf is a GTD. NJigba's metrics are on the rise. Breakout coming?

Which one?

Thanks
Because it's PPR I go with Wan'dale because he seems most locked into his targets. Simple as that for me. Also a good matchup. If it was non PPR I would probably lean Ingram.

Don't really trust JSN ATM.

Wan'dale>Ingram>JSN
 
PSA for Tucker (Bal K) owners

Find another option. 16-17 mph steady winds with stronger gusts. I’m walking around Baltimore rn and tomorrow’s forecast has almost identical winds.

Strong arm QBs can handle any winds below 17 so less concerned for Goff & LJax.

Enjoy your Saturday.
 
PSA for Tucker (Bal K) owners

Find another option. 16-17 mph steady winds with stronger gusts. I’m walking around Baltimore rn and tomorrow’s forecast has almost identical winds.

Strong arm QBs can handle any winds below 17 so less concerned for Goff & LJax.

Enjoy your Saturday.

So glad I went against Tucker last week instead when he outscored just about everyone on my own team.
 
PSA for Tucker (Bal K) owners

Find another option. 16-17 mph steady winds with stronger gusts. I’m walking around Baltimore rn and tomorrow’s forecast has almost identical winds.

Strong arm QBs can handle any winds below 17 so less concerned for Goff & LJax.

Enjoy your Saturday.

So glad I went against Tucker last week instead when he outscored just about everyone on my own team.

Was probably a well thought decision bc prior to that he kind of sucked in 2023.

Lineup “mistakes” are par for the course, can’t get ‘em all correct.
 
Same question, different week.

QB, pick 1, std scoring

Goff @ Ravens
Howell @ Giants


I went against the grain last week and started Goff on the road, it paid off. Ravens should be more difficult but the best QB they have faced all season is Stroud in his first ever NFL start, so hard to gauge if they are actually good or not.

Detroit vs Baltimore should be a higher scoring game, and BobbyLayne will be in the house so I expect Goff to show off, therefore I am leaning that way. Anyone want to talk me out of it?
the line has this game 24-18 Baltimore . The most points Balt has scored all year is 27 and the most they have given up is 24 (admitedly the lions will be the best offense they have faced)... The most the Lions have scored is 28 so I dont expect a high scoring game and wouldnt surprise me it the Lions try to win this one on the ground if they can. Personally I would start howell vs an easier defense but understand sometimes I lean on matchups... to a fault. Good luck with your decision.
 
Need to pick two between my RB2-FLEX spots, PPR:

J Ford @ IND
J Cook @ NE
Godwin vs ATL

Leaning Ford and Cook; however, evidently I love to be hurt and make decisions that feel like a punch in the crotch.
 
Looking for RB2 in full ppr. Pick one
Stevenson NE v Buf
Taylor Ind v Cle

Leaning Stevenson given a bit greater clarity in role and easier defense he’s facing. Thoughts?
 
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PPR League. Looking to maximize my last RB slot understanding injuries/byes.

* The guy I'd drop: K. Ingram.
* Potential Pickups: S. Ahmed, LAR RBs (Henderson, Freeman, Gaskin...Evans is gone).

My RBs and status:

RB1: R. Mostert (Healthy...for now. Could lock that up more with Ahmed. Wilson gone).
RB2: Kyren Williams (on IR)
RB3: D. Montgomery (Injured)
RB4: J. Gibbs (thrust into lineup)
RB5: D. Pierce (hoping Singletary snaps was one week thing, on bye)
RB6: D. Foreman (starting this week no choice)
RB7: T. Spears (not dropping him in case Henry traded)
RB8: K. Ingram

On K. Ingram, I'm not starting him this week and the upcoming schedule looks lousy for RB SOS: BAL, @CLE, ATL. There may not be a situation where I use him for a month unless my entire backfield gets injured (which is possible).

So if Ingram is dumped, should I insure Mostert with Ahmed? Roll the dice on one of the LAR RBs?

Thansk
 
Need 1 for PPR flex

Tutu vs Steelers
LaPorta at Baltimore
M. Wilson at Seattle

Leaning LaPorta, then Tutu, then Wilson but it's not an easy decision
 
Its odd that these 2 qbs havent thrown for more tds than they have given the weapons they each have at wr....
What?
Kupp has played two games. The rams leading receivers are a late round rookie and a 2nd year player who didn’t look great last year. Their lead running back is also a 5th round pick in his second year. The rams were supposed to be bad this year but Stafford Is keeping them competitive. All told, Stafford is playing great.
I get all that and didnt knock Staffords play at all. Even without Kupp they had 2 legitimate FF starting wr's ( no matter where they were drafted or how many years they have played) plus a te that isnt chopped liver yet Stafford averaged less than 1 td per game. Since Kupp has been back he has 3 tds in 2 games, better but still nothing to write home to mama about. I get that Staffords play has been a big part of the receivers success. Just seems like both qbs I mentioned ( ranked 19th and 21st in my league) would have more passing tds at this point. I expect both of them to rebound and finish somewhere in the qb 12-15 range by the end of the year. As of now Stafford has 2 top 12 finishes (both barely qualifying) and Geno has 1 solid start.
 
PPR League. Looking to maximize my last RB slot understanding injuries/byes.

* The guy I'd drop: K. Ingram.
* Potential Pickups: S. Ahmed, LAR RBs (Henderson, Freeman, Gaskin...Evans is gone).

My RBs and status:

RB1: R. Mostert (Healthy...for now. Could lock that up more with Ahmed. Wilson gone).
RB2: Kyren Williams (on IR)
RB3: D. Montgomery (Injured)
RB4: J. Gibbs (thrust into lineup)
RB5: D. Pierce (hoping Singletary snaps was one week thing, on bye)
RB6: D. Foreman (starting this week no choice)
RB7: T. Spears (not dropping him in case Henry traded)
RB8: K. Ingram

On K. Ingram, I'm not starting him this week and the upcoming schedule looks lousy for RB SOS: BAL, @CLE, ATL. There may not be a situation where I use him for a month unless my entire backfield gets injured (which is possible).

So if Ingram is dumped, should I insure Mostert with Ahmed? Roll the dice on one of the LAR RBs?

Thansk
That is tough. Without Wilson coming back I would say picking up Ahmed has some merit but is a 3rd string rb soon to be a 4th string rb when Achane comes back seriously worth holding? Wouldnt be for me. You could pick up an LAR rb and hope and pray he even plays (for me that would be henderson) or you can keep a backup on a team whose starter is on the IR. You sound like me..... itching to make a move but bout to shoot myself in the foot . Personally I would stand pat and curse the fact that the moves I can make probably dont help my team.
 
0.5 PPR - need a flex:
  • T.McLaurin @ NYG
  • S. LaPorta @ BAL (I’m starting M.Andrews at TE)
  • K.Ingram @ SEA
  • K.Osborn vs. SF
  • K.Hunt @ IND
 
PPR League. Looking to maximize my last RB slot understanding injuries/byes.

* The guy I'd drop: K. Ingram.
* Potential Pickups: S. Ahmed, LAR RBs (Henderson, Freeman, Gaskin...Evans is gone).

My RBs and status:

RB1: R. Mostert (Healthy...for now. Could lock that up more with Ahmed. Wilson gone).
RB2: Kyren Williams (on IR)
RB3: D. Montgomery (Injured)
RB4: J. Gibbs (thrust into lineup)
RB5: D. Pierce (hoping Singletary snaps was one week thing, on bye)
RB6: D. Foreman (starting this week no choice)
RB7: T. Spears (not dropping him in case Henry traded)
RB8: K. Ingram

On K. Ingram, I'm not starting him this week and the upcoming schedule looks lousy for RB SOS: BAL, @CLE, ATL. There may not be a situation where I use him for a month unless my entire backfield gets injured (which is possible).

So if Ingram is dumped, should I insure Mostert with Ahmed? Roll the dice on one of the LAR RBs?

Thansk
That is tough. Without Wilson coming back I would say picking up Ahmed has some merit but is a 3rd string rb soon to be a 4th string rb when Achane comes back seriously worth holding? Wouldnt be for me. You could pick up an LAR rb and hope and pray he even plays (for me that would be henderson) or you can keep a backup on a team whose starter is on the IR. You sound like me..... itching to make a move but bout to shoot myself in the foot . Personally I would stand pat and curse the fact that the moves I can make probably dont help my team.

Good points.

I'm honestly just trying to get through this injury bug the next 2-3 weeks.

Scared to death on Mostert. I already had (and dropped) K. Herbert...then Monty went down...next Kyren. If Mostert were to go down, at least for a couple weeks (NE, KC) Wilson and Ahmed would split. That wouldn't be too bad in that offense.

What's nagging me is that I just don't see that I'm playing Ingram for 4 weeks. If that's the case, wouldn't a dice roll for say Henderson make sense? The problem with that option: I'm not playing him this week, next week they face DAL (bad), and then finally have a nice matchup @GB, but then it's the bye week. Ugh.

The more I think about it the more I think Ahmed could make sense.
 
Flex spot...

Jerome Ford @ IND
Christian Watson @ DEN
George Pickens @ LAR

PPR, 1 pt. per 10 yards, 5 pt. bonus @ 100 yards receiving or rushing, bonuses for long TDs. thx
 
Looking for RB2 in full ppr. Pick one
Stevenson NE v Buf
Taylor Ind v Cle

Leaning Stevenson given a bit greater clarity in role and easier defense he’s facing. Thoughts?
Yeah, my thoughts seem to align with yours. Rhamondre is less than ideal but he's at home, has a better matchup (Buf is 31st in defensive rush yards/attempt) and he is truly the only RB option for the Patriots. The risk is they get blown out and the Patriots stop using him like they did against N.O.

But that Cleveland defense is for real and Taylor is in a timeshare, at least until he.proves he should be which is going to be tough with the way Moss is playing.

Rhamondre>Taylor
 
PPR League. Looking to maximize my last RB slot understanding injuries/byes.

* The guy I'd drop: K. Ingram.
* Potential Pickups: S. Ahmed, LAR RBs (Henderson, Freeman, Gaskin...Evans is gone).

My RBs and status:

RB1: R. Mostert (Healthy...for now. Could lock that up more with Ahmed. Wilson gone).
RB2: Kyren Williams (on IR)
RB3: D. Montgomery (Injured)
RB4: J. Gibbs (thrust into lineup)
RB5: D. Pierce (hoping Singletary snaps was one week thing, on bye)
RB6: D. Foreman (starting this week no choice)
RB7: T. Spears (not dropping him in case Henry traded)
RB8: K. Ingram

On K. Ingram, I'm not starting him this week and the upcoming schedule looks lousy for RB SOS: BAL, @CLE, ATL. There may not be a situation where I use him for a month unless my entire backfield gets injured (which is possible).

So if Ingram is dumped, should I insure Mostert with Ahmed? Roll the dice on one of the LAR RBs?

Thansk
I'm not interested in any Rams RB not named Evans.

Keaontay is your best near & mid term option but if you're trying to cover yourself I guess I can see Ahmed but he isn't a near term option and, unless Mostert gets hurt this week he probably won't be relevant before Achane comes back.

I probably stick with Keaontay.
 
This week I have questions around my WR2 & flex. I haven't had this many similar options in a long time.

Full PPR - need a WR & a flex

Jerome Ford @ Indy
D'Onta Foreman v Raiders
Jahmyr Gibbs @ Baltimore
Jordan Mason @ Minnesota (if McCaffrey is out)
Michael Pittman v Cleveland
Zay Flowers v Detroit
Josh Palmer @ KC
I like Zay as your WR he seems to be LJax favorite target after ManDrews and Detroit's run "D" is tough. They will need to pass to move the ball.
I like Palmer as the flex. Should be a high scoring game in KC.
 
Not really specific to me but a general WSIS question heading into Sunday if someone needs to add a last minute lotto ticket.

ppr, pick 1:

D Henderson vs Steelers
R Freeman vs Steelers
M Gaskin vs Steelers
Z Evans vs Steelers

There has been a lot of discussion in the players threads but I suspect most of it is heavily influenced by which RB the poster did or did not get off of waivers this week. Interested in the perspective of the experts in this thread.
Gaskin just joined the team. Henderson knows the system, but just joined the team. Go with either Evans or Freeman; whichever one McVay perceives as having the hot hand...
 
PPR League. Looking to maximize my last RB slot understanding injuries/byes.

* The guy I'd drop: K. Ingram.
* Potential Pickups: S. Ahmed, LAR RBs (Henderson, Freeman, Gaskin...Evans is gone).

My RBs and status:

RB1: R. Mostert (Healthy...for now. Could lock that up more with Ahmed. Wilson gone).
RB2: Kyren Williams (on IR)
RB3: D. Montgomery (Injured)
RB4: J. Gibbs (thrust into lineup)
RB5: D. Pierce (hoping Singletary snaps was one week thing, on bye)
RB6: D. Foreman (starting this week no choice)
RB7: T. Spears (not dropping him in case Henry traded)
RB8: K. Ingram

On K. Ingram, I'm not starting him this week and the upcoming schedule looks lousy for RB SOS: BAL, @CLE, ATL. There may not be a situation where I use him for a month unless my entire backfield gets injured (which is possible).

So if Ingram is dumped, should I insure Mostert with Ahmed? Roll the dice on one of the LAR RBs?

Thansk
That is tough. Without Wilson coming back I would say picking up Ahmed has some merit but is a 3rd string rb soon to be a 4th string rb when Achane comes back seriously worth holding? Wouldnt be for me. You could pick up an LAR rb and hope and pray he even plays (for me that would be henderson) or you can keep a backup on a team whose starter is on the IR. You sound like me..... itching to make a move but bout to shoot myself in the foot . Personally I would stand pat and curse the fact that the moves I can make probably dont help my team.

Good points.

I'm honestly just trying to get through this injury bug the next 2-3 weeks.

Scared to death on Mostert. I already had (and dropped) K. Herbert...then Monty went down...next Kyren. If Mostert were to go down, at least for a couple weeks (NE, KC) Wilson and Ahmed would split. That wouldn't be too bad in that offense.

What's nagging me is that I just don't see that I'm playing Ingram for 4 weeks. If that's the case, wouldn't a dice roll for say Henderson make sense? The problem with that option: I'm not playing him this week, next week they face DAL (bad), and then finally have a nice matchup @GB, but then it's the bye week. Ugh.

The more I think about it the more I think Ahmed could make sense.
If it's a 2-3 week mindset, Keaontay makes the most sense IMO.
 
Late Saturday check up:

-Roschon is out.
-Dan Campbell says Gibbs will lead the backfield (I believe him) and he has no injury designation.

Full PPR need a flex.

Gibbs @ Bal
Ford @ Ind
D'Onta v LVR
Flowers v Set

Currently have Ford in but am seriously considering Gibbs or even Foreman (good matchup).
 
@Chaka I don't think you can play Foreman. The other three all feel like the same value play. Consensus rankings says Flowers, but I believe his ceiling might be slightly capped to that of Gibbs or Ford.
 
PPR need three:
J Warren pitt v rams
J wilson mia v phil
J Williams den v GB
J Mclaughlin den v gb
T Allgreier v tbb
 
Late Saturday check up:

-Roschon is out.
-Dan Campbell says Gibbs will lead the backfield (I believe him) and he has no injury designation.

Full PPR need a flex.

Gibbs @ Bal
Ford @ Ind
D'Onta v LVR
Flowers v Set

Currently have Ford in but am seriously considering Gibbs or even Foreman (good matchup).
I think this is the week you start Gibbs. Det took him way too early and I think the plan was at least him at 50/50 by this point, only Monty has gone insane and he got injured. I don't know how Ford is doing in terms of catching, but part of the preseason hype was about Gibbs lining up all over the formation, which can only help in ppr.
 
PPR league
London @ TB
Flowers vs DET

Non-PPR (pick one)
Moss vs CLE
Mitchell @ MIN

FA options:
McLaughlin vs GB
LMurray @ NE
Ingram @ SEA
JWilson @ PHI

For Mitchell, there are three potential scenarios: CMC definitely out, CMC definitely in, or situation still ambiguous by the time I have to make a decision on Sunday morning (Niners play Monday night).

If I know CMC is out, I'll almost certainly start Mitchell. If I know he's in, maybe Murray? And if it's ambiguous, I'm inclined to roll with Mitchell and hope that either CMC sits, or Eli gets a lot of run as they seek to protect CMC.

Other factor is that I'm a heavy underdog, so I want to focus on ceiling plays
Is it crazy that I’m thinking of starting Mitchell regardless of CMC’s status? All my options are either their teams’ clear RB2 (Mitchell, Moss, McLaughlin, Wilson) or else part of an ambiguous mess (Freeman). So why not take the guy whose RB1 may be limited in a game where they’re heavy favorites, and who also has upside if the starter is a late scratch?

Only other option I’m considering at this point is McLaughlin because of that matchup, but it’s non-PPR, which limits his appeal a little
 
Flex spot...

Jerome Ford @ IND
Christian Watson @ DEN
George Pickens @ LAR

PPR, 1 pt. per 10 yards, 5 pt. bonus @ 100 yards receiving or rushing, bonuses for long TDs. thx
Good options. Tough to parse between them as I can easily see any of them outperform the others.

I probably (maybe, kinda) like Watson first because as we saw last week he is truly a big play waiting to happen. He also has the best matchup. Of the Packers can get him isolated on Mathis a couple times he will have some opportunities.

Pickens also has that big play potential and has been getting a good target share. Nothing wrong with starting him over Watson but, I do believe he is a small step down in ability.

Ford has been playing well and getting good volume. He is definitely the volume play in this list. He is also used quite a bit out of the backfield as a receiver. His floor feels secure. And watching him rip off multiplayer long gainers against the 49ers last should give you plenty of confidence in him. I question his TD upside just a bit but he's definitely a strong option here.

Not much to distinguish these guys apart.

Watson>Ford>Pickens
 
Standard:

McLaughlin vs GB
Charb vs Ari
Gibson @NYG
JWJ @PHI
Keontay Ingram @ Sea

Pick my RB2
Not Charbonnet or Gibson IMO, their roles have been far too small.

Jaleel doesn't have a big role either but he's darn shifty and always seems to be ripping off chunk plays.

I don't know what to expect from Wilson and Philly has been very tough against the run. Great offense to gamble on, though.

Keaontay is probably the volume call here as he is probably most locked into his touches. But that still may oy translate into 12 or so opportunities and he's on a lesser offense.

Not much to go on with these guys except hunches. In this situation I generally back the guys on the best team

Wilson>???Jaleel?>Keaontay
 
Chaka, Thank you as always.

Need one WR3 in non-ppr:
C. Samuel @ NYG
Rice vs LAC

Need one TE in PPR:
Jonnu Smith @ TB
L. Thomas @ NYG
No idea on the TE. I guess Thomas because the Giants are not very good. But reay include.

We have all seen the Samuel show before. It will end, possibly this week. But the Commanders passing the ball a ton and he is definitely the hot hand. He's also on the field a lot more than Rice ATM

Long term I like Rice; today

Samuel>Rice
 
Between IR (Freiermuth & Kyren), byes, and GTD (CMC) my roster is a mess this week, so while I take the L against 1st place, I need to keep up season points:

PPR, TE premium, return yards (need 4)

* CMC @ Min
* Jordan Mason @ Min
* Ray Ray McCloud @ Min
* Darrell Henderson vs Pit
* Jake Bobo vs Ari
* Andrew Ogletree vs Cle

My real crux is if I gamble with any degree of Bobo, Ogletree, and Henderson then I might miss out on more 49er points on Monday. If I don’t use enough of them, I might run into them sitting CMC.
 
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PPR need three:
J Warren pitt v rams
J wilson mia v phil
J Williams den v GB
J Mclaughlin den v gb
T Allgreier v tbb
It feels pretty clear to me

Warren because he is so stable in PPR format and still has some upside.

Wilson because, in these circumstances I back the player on the best team

And Javonte because he is playing well and, I think he's still the lead back in Denver. At least I'm not willing to bench him for Jaleel just yet.
 
.5 PPR

Need one: Puka, Mike Evans, Aaron Jones
I want to say this is clearly Aaron Jones but it's tough to do that as he hasn't seemed healthy healthy. But if he is better that matchup seems too good to pass up. If you have a strong feeling about his health you should roll with it, I don't.

Puka looks like he definitely has a role even with Kupp back. If it was full PPR he'd probably be my choice but I think Kupp caps his upside a bit. Still he's definitely as safe a choice as you have.

I love Evans as a player and he started the year very hot. Baker was, and is, locked in on him for sure. But his efficiency has been bad and Atlanta has been pretty strong against the pass and has a way of making games ugly.

Puka>Evans>Jones
 
JSN v AZ (assume Metcalf DNP for this rank)
Rashee Rice v LAC
Gabe Davis v NE
I can see why this is a tough one but I think I go with Gabe here.

They are all spec plays for the most part you're hoping for a TD. Well, Gabe has scored at least one TD in 25 of 60 career games played. That's a ridiculous 41.7% rate.

If you can't really back into what to expect from players, that 41.7% number seems like a deciding factor to me.

Gabe>JSN*>Rice
 
PPR league
London @ TB
Flowers vs DET

Non-PPR (pick one)
Moss vs CLE
Mitchell @ MIN

FA options:
McLaughlin vs GB
LMurray @ NE
Ingram @ SEA
JWilson @ PHI

For Mitchell, there are three potential scenarios: CMC definitely out, CMC definitely in, or situation still ambiguous by the time I have to make a decision on Sunday morning (Niners play Monday night).

If I know CMC is out, I'll almost certainly start Mitchell. If I know he's in, maybe Murray? And if it's ambiguous, I'm inclined to roll with Mitchell and hope that either CMC sits, or Eli gets a lot of run as they seek to protect CMC.

Other factor is that I'm a heavy underdog, so I want to focus on ceiling plays
Is it crazy that I’m thinking of starting Mitchell regardless of CMC’s status? All my options are either their teams’ clear RB2 (Mitchell, Moss, McLaughlin, Wilson) or else part of an ambiguous mess (Freeman). So why not take the guy whose RB1 may be limited in a game where they’re heavy favorites, and who also has upside if the starter is a late scratch?

Only other option I’m considering at this point is McLaughlin because of that matchup, but it’s non-PPR, which limits his appeal a little
I understand the logic and won't talk you off that ledge.

Okay, maybe a little. There has to be some concern about Mason's role. Mitchell is probably the #2 but Mason has played very strong in his opportunities, he may not simply go away in this scenario. It does seem likely that Mason will be the #3 option and the way Shanahan seems to run the offense it shouldn't be a concern for Mitchell. I just don't love that bit of uncertainty. Also, if CMC is fine, how much action will Mitchell see?

If you want to back a clear #2RB on a good team there seems to be just as much argument for Wilson as Mitchell.

Let me be clear, if you feel strongly about it you should absolutely start Mitchell. I am only providing my own opinion, which is worth exactly what you pay for it.
 

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