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Week 10 DFS (1 Viewer)

BassNBrew

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Thursday Nite...

No real overlay outside of a college ticket contest with only 400 entires that rewarded 300 people with $9 tickets ($4 entry).  Played three lineups and all hit.  Need to have one of the three tickets to cash to make a profit.

My Monday-Thursday lineup min cashed.

Played the 4th quarter contest as that is usually soft.  4 Ravens and Wilson was good for 3.5X.

Also Fanduel is offering $15 bonus cash with a $50 deposit.  Must be claimed by tomorrow night.

 
Focusing most of my builds around Allen, Dak, Herbert, Brady, and Russ.  Nothing very unique or original there.  Allen, Dak, and Herbert are all treading at over 15% ownership.  I like Harris and Cook this week, so fitting them both with any of those QBs is tough.  I am leaning more Cook, at this moment, mostly because I can run it back with a better option.  I will have some Conner, but he is not cheap and I am not sure I trust him.  I like D'Ernst, and assuming Chubb is out, I will have a lot.  I assume most will since he offers the best value on the slate.  Further complicating my builds is that I do not like any of the cheaper/value WRs.  That batch of WRs from $6300-$5500 is such a crap-shoot.  If anyone feels strongly, please advise!  Filling in with those TEs around $5000 and hoping that I pick the right one this week.  Letting the optimizer kick out a cheap low owned D for me, which is landing mostly on ATL and NYJ.  My favorite builds are with Brady/Evans-McLaurin with a secondary stack of Cook-Williams.

 
BassNBrew said:
Thursday Nite...

No real overlay outside of a college ticket contest with only 400 entires that rewarded 300 people with $9 tickets ($4 entry).  Played three lineups and all hit.  Need to have one of the three tickets to cash to make a profit.

My Monday-Thursday lineup min cashed.

Played the 4th quarter contest as that is usually soft.  4 Ravens and Wilson was good for 3.5X.

Also Fanduel is offering $15 bonus cash with a $50 deposit.  Must be claimed by tomorrow night.
Click to expand...


Played two $3 tournaments on FD last night.  Complete fade of Lamar, who did not have a good game, but was still needed!!!  My real demise was the Brissett injury, since I had him as MVP in both lineups.  It also did not help that Gisiki posted a 0 and I also had him in both lineups.  I never have much luck on the single game slate, so I try to keep it cheap.

 
With Chubb ruled out now, D'Ernest Johnson might be in 100% of my lineups on DraftKings.

Not sure how I feel about that.

 
eoMMan said:
With Chubb ruled out now, D'Ernest Johnson might be in 100% of my lineups on DraftKings.

Not sure how I feel about that.
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apparently ownership is projected above 50%.  against a middling defense I could see it, but against a top 5 scoring defense its a bit much.  I'll have him in 10 or 20% of my lineups.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
apparently ownership is projected above 50%.  against a middling defense I could see it, but against a top 5 scoring defense its a bit much.  I'll have him in 10 or 20% of my lineups.
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Checked a couple of places. D’Ernst is projecting around 35% ownership. I think that makes him a reasonable option to fade in GPP. I will be using him in most of my lineups and looking to differentiate with a different way.  

 
Kamara out.  Ingram priced at $5500.  Easy pivot off D’Ernst.  Ownership hasn’t updated yet.  How do we rank them?   Play both opens up some serious salary.  

 
FatNate said:
Kamara out.  Ingram priced at $5500.  Easy pivot off D’Ernst.  Ownership hasn’t updated yet.  How do we rank them?   Play both opens up some serious salary.  
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I think D'Ernest is clearly the best option.  I might have 10-20% D'Ernest, 5-10% Ingram, and 2-5% whichever Patriots back ends up starting from this price band.

 
Putting both Johnson and Ingram in a lineup is a great start to a cash lineup that frees up money elsewhere. 

 
problem I am having getting away from the D.Harris, D.Johnson, Ingram chalky plays is that a lot of other players I like are looking to be <5% owned:

Hurts, Brady, Wilson, Rodgers

Diggs, Evans, McLaurin, MVS, M.Williams, Jefferson

Freiermuth, Shultz.  

When I stare at that - my first thought is why would I pivot off of a 4.5K RB getting all the work, when I could just lock him in and play a Brady/Evans/McLaurin stack around him with all <5% ownership (or something like that).  

 
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With all the value at RB(Johnson,Ingram, Singletary) I'm starting my lineups with 2 of Cooks,Taylor and Harris to make it different. Ty Johnson is a cheap piece of the TB offense and Dan Arnold has been getting 7+ targets the last few games.

 
Raging weasel said:
With all the value at RB(Johnson,Ingram, Singletary) I'm starting my lineups with 2 of Cooks,Taylor and Harris to make it different. Ty Johnson is a cheap piece of the TB offense and Dan Arnold has been getting 7+ targets the last few games.
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Yeah, I think the instant way to gain leverage is to do what you said - start with two 6+ RBs because so many LUs will have one or both of Johnson and Ingram.   My issue is they are so cheap, and I don't like cheap WRs nearly as much as Johnson.  

I did one so I had something to look at for the day - I started with Taylor and N.Harris, did MVS for cheap punt and put in D.Arnold for a correlation with Taylor and a random 3K D.   That left 6K/player left for Qb, 2WR and a flex.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
problem I am having getting away from the D.Harris, D.Johnson, Ingram chalky plays is that a lot of other players I like are looking to be <5% owned:

Hurts, Brady, Wilson, Rodgers

Diggs, Evans, McLaurin, MVS, M.Williams, Jefferson

Freiermuth, Shultz.  

When I stare at that - my first thought is why would I pivot off of a 4.5K RB getting all the work, when I could just lock him in and play a Brady/Evans/McLaurin stack around him with all <5% ownership (or something like that).  
Click to expand...
I like this thought.  I am going to eat the RB chalk and take the value.  I love that QBs like Russ and Rodgers are projected at less than 5% ownership stack with Metcalf, at projected less than 8% ownership.  Toss in a low owned defense and I am set. 

 
FatNate said:
I like this thought.  I am going to eat the RB chalk and take the value.  I love that QBs like Russ and Rodgers are projected at less than 5% ownership stack with Metcalf, at projected less than 8% ownership.  Toss in a low owned defense and I am set. 
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Of course after I post that, the ownerships are updated and a lot of that initial list is pretty high owned.  I still think the idea is good though, and I might still take shots on that Seattle/GB b/c that still seems to be low owned.  

I still like the idea of eating the cheap RB chalk b/c it's slightly more predictable, and then you have the salary to put in just about any low owned stud WR or stack you want.   The other thought was Cook and CMC were interesting pivots off Harris and Taylor.    

Other than that, it's like I said with RW- it might just be a pivot to a different roster build completely.   with the ownership looking the way it is, it's basically  Harris/Taylor/Zeke + one or two of Johnson/Ingram + cheaper TE + stud WR like Adams.     You can get different right away doing 2 high priced RBs,  2 stud WRs, or maybe paying up for TE.   Like I said though, what's the cost b/c I think it's safe to pencil in 20 touches at 4.7K for Johnson on that team.     So instead of Johnson, Harris, Adams it's Harris, Taylor, and something like J.Meyers/Beasley/C.Davis ?   That just doesn't have the same ring or upside.     

 
LOL,   I just had RG run 200 LUs with a stack and using the ceiling projections for gpps, and it only gave me about 10% D.Johnson lines.   It was basically 100% Ingram and Harris.     

This is the crap that drives me crazy on Saturday evenings.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
LOL,   I just had RG run 200 LUs with a stack and using the ceiling projections for gpps, and it only gave me about 10% D.Johnson lines.   It was basically 100% Ingram and Harris.     

This is the crap that drives me crazy on Saturday evenings.  
Click to expand...
Yeah.  Takes me forever to get the optimizer calibrated properly.  I usually only enter about 20 lineups per week.  So I usually set my max exposure to about 50% at all positions for ten lineups per each QB I want to key on.   Then I scroll through them to pick 2-5 I want to enter. I also auto lock a player or two that I MUST have, if I have a strong lean. 

 
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FatNate said:
Yeah.  Takes me forever to get the optimizer calibrated properly.  I usually only enter about 20 lineups per week.  So I usually set my max exposure to about 50% at all positions for ten lineups per each QB I want to key on.   Then I scroll through them to pick 2-5 I want to enter. I also auto lock a player or two that I MUST have, if I have a strong lean. 
Click to expand...
My confusion was why it was spitting out Ingram at 9x the rate it was D. Johnson.  

 
FatNate said:
Played two $3 tournaments on FD last night.  Complete fade of Lamar, who did not have a good game, but was still needed!!!  My real demise was the Brissett injury, since I had him as MVP in both lineups.  It also did not help that Gisiki posted a 0 and I also had him in both lineups.  I never have much luck on the single game slate, so I try to keep it cheap.
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I don't mean to be rude here Nate, but people picking Brissett to be the MVP is why there's money to be made on single game slates.    Obviously Brissett is great strategy to win the whole contest.  On Monday night people had Friermuth as their MVP.  There's enough people who enter lineups like that taking the obvious choice will usually result in some bank especially if you find overlay.

I could be totally wrong on how I'm attacking these single game slates.  It's the contrarian approach (to being a contrarian) to recommended full stale approach and the It's worked for several years now, but that could be a function of a low number of instances that I'm playing or the overlay factor.  I've noticed my poorer nights tend to be when there are several "viable" MVP choices.  I get undisciplined end up playing because I want to play.  Usually this happens when I've spent time building lineups and the overlay doesn't materialize.  I'll still attack a less than optimail game if there's enough overlay.

 
Mentioned earlier that I invested $12 (3x$4) in a Thursday ticket contest that paid 300 tickets ($9)with only 400 entries.  $2700 paid out on $1600 of entires.  IMO these should be played more like cash games but you'll still see lineups playing them like tournies.  The winner had Andrews as MVP even though Lamar would have been a better pick (Lamar was in his lineup).  Anyway I won 3 tickets and one of those min cashed yesterday to $16.  Final tally, $12 in and $16 out.

Note that I only recommend playing ticket contests when there's a 60% or less fill rate.  Paying 19% juice to win an entry into a contest with 19% juice isn't a long term winning strategy.

 
BassNBrew said:
I don't mean to be rude here Nate, but people picking Brissett to be the MVP is why there's money to be made on single game slates.    Obviously Brissett is great strategy to win the whole contest.  On Monday night people had Friermuth as their MVP.  There's enough people who enter lineups like that taking the obvious choice will usually result in some bank especially if you find overlay.

I could be totally wrong on how I'm attacking these single game slates.  It's the contrarian approach (to being a contrarian) to recommended full stale approach and the It's worked for several years now, but that could be a function of a low number of instances that I'm playing or the overlay factor.  I've noticed my poorer nights tend to be when there are several "viable" MVP choices.  I get undisciplined end up playing because I want to play.  Usually this happens when I've spent time building lineups and the overlay doesn't materialize.  I'll still attack a less than optimail game if there's enough overlay.
Click to expand...
No offense.  Ever.  We are here to share and in a way work together.  Helping each other to find a slight edge to compete with the big boys. 

 
BassNBrew said:
Mentioned earlier that I invested $12 (3x$4) in a Thursday ticket contest that paid 300 tickets ($9)with only 400 entries.  $2700 paid out on $1600 of entires.  IMO these should be played more like cash games but you'll still see lineups playing them like tournies.  The winner had Andrews as MVP even though Lamar would have been a better pick (Lamar was in his lineup).  Anyway I won 3 tickets and one of those min cashed yesterday to $16.  Final tally, $12 in and $16 out.

Note that I only recommend playing ticket contests when there's a 60% or less fill rate.  Paying 19% juice to win an entry into a contest with 19% juice isn't a long term winning strategy.
Click to expand...
I will look at more ticket related contests.  It’s usually not part of my process, at all. 

 
FatNate said:
Kamara out.  Ingram priced at $5500.  Easy pivot off D’Ernst.  Ownership hasn’t updated yet.  How do we rank them?   Play both opens up some serious salary.  
Click to expand...
Anyone using Stevenson?   Priced to compete with D’Ernst and Ingram, at GPP level ownership.  

 
Big overlay in the 4:05 single game.  $22200 in entry fees taken in on a $35000 contest.  About half the teams will double up.

 
BassNBrew said:
Big overlay in the 4:05 single game.  $22200 in entry fees taken in on a $35000 contest.  About half the teams will double up.
Click to expand...


LOL...Glad i didn't pound this one.  None of my 3 lineups are in the money right now.  I'm not even sure how that's possible.

 
BassNBrew said:
LOL...Glad i didn't pound this one.  None of my 3 lineups are in the money right now.  I'm not even sure how that's possible.
Click to expand...


Down 50% on that slate.  Sometimes when the odds are hugly staked in your favor it still doesn't work out.

 
up a couple bucks.  

I wasn't even thinking about guys like R.Stephenson and Dillon.  

Also too much Brady today. 

 
$150 in $70 out.

Pretty sure its an artifact of my stubbornness to keep playing the massive GPPs.  Typically half my winnings come from single entry contests.  In the GPPs even if you finish in the top 5% you're only doubling or tripling your entry fee.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
$150 in $70 out.

Pretty sure its an artifact of my stubbornness to keep playing the massive GPPs.  Typically half my winnings come from single entry contests.  In the GPPs even if you finish in the top 5% you're only doubling or tripling your entry fee.
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19% vig.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
up a couple bucks.  

I wasn't even thinking about guys like R.Stephenson and Dillon.  

Also too much Brady today. 
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I did have Stevenson and Dillon in a couple lineups but way too much Brady/Evans. If I could have just pivoted to another stack like Prescott/Lamb (only had that in 1 lineup), it would have been a much better week

 
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