***Week 10 Picks*** (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Week 9 was a good week as I climbed back to respectability. Since many wanted to know my record I went ahead and did the math. One star = one win (or loss), and I was 7-3 last week to push me up to 31-29-1, a hair above 50%. Not bad, but 7-3 is certainly encouraging. Let's see how I do this week....

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Chicago Bears - (1 star)

An 8-0 team is just a 3-point favorite? Against a team that runs better than it throws, especially without their starting quarterback? This one makes no sense to me at all. I do see Rex rolling some dice and throwing deep to Hester a few times, but Courtland Finnegan could "house" him as well. I like both TEs for Chicago to do well (over the middle - the LBs - is the area to attack that defense) but Chris Johnson is matchup-proof. Titans by 7.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (UNDER 50) - (1 star)

Fifty? FIFTY? Okay, Drew Brees is a fantasy stud, but come on - no Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey is "healthy" which means he may last until possibly the third quarter, and Marques Colston just can't get on track. Michael Turner will run well against the Saints who give up plenty of yards and points, but somehow I don't see a 27-24 type game. I like it, not love it, but 50 is a big, big number. Plus - here's the "kicker" - Garrett Hartley starts for the first time. Rookie kicker? I'll take a gamble that he misses some points as well. Give me a 24-20 final - but I'm starting to hesitate as I type this.....

Kansas City Chiefs (+15) at San Diego Chargers - (1 star)

Yikes. The Chargers are expected to crush the Chiefs, and I fully believe that San Diego rolls up some big points here. Forty sounds like too many, so let's say San Diego gets 34-35. That means KC has to get 20-21 to compete against this number. Dwayne Bowe? Touchdown. Tony Gonzalez? Touchdown. Jamaal Charles? Some kicking? Defense? The Chargers are averaging 25 points against this year - keep that in mind. I think that the Chiefs can keep it under two touchdowns.



San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (OVER 45.5) - (1 star)

The line may have moved up a hook to 45.5 (I preferred 45) but this game should be a shootout. Start all your Cards - Boldin, Fitz, Warner, Hightower - and look for San Fran to try and keep pace. Shaun Hill gets the start and he's probably the best QB on that roster. Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce and Gore all score. Plus (the secret to lovin' overs) both kickers are pretty good.

**TWO STAR GAMES**





Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (UNDER 44.5) - (2 stars)



Daunte. Culpepper. OOF. Even if Calvin gets lucky, I'm not buying this. MJD and possibly even Fred Taylor run wild and Garrard throws for 200 and 2 scores, but the Lions just stink right now on offense. If you turn Culpepper's playbook sideways it disappears.

Jags 31, Detroit 7.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (UNDER 43) - (2 stars)

Not much better in this one. Did anyone WATCH Seattle? Seriously, you expect them to get 17 points, Vegas? No Hasselbeck, no dice. Miami 27, Seattle 6.

Baltimore Ravens (EVEN) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)

Sage will have no time. Ray Rice and Joe "Shane" Flacco continue their run and roll on the Texans. Slaton will be fine coming around the ends and catching the ball in space, but the Ravens run, control the clock, and win 23-13. Owen Daniels will again have 6-7 catches but no TD.

***THREE STAR GAMES***



None this week.

Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.

Lastly, the record:

Week 1 - Didn't post a thread.

Week 2 - Record:4-3-1. (A tad charitable on the push, but the line moved from 3.5 to 3 on CAR/CHI).

Week 3 - Record: 1-2.

Week 4 - Record: 4-3.

Week 5 - Record: 4-2.

Week 6 - Record: 2-3.

Week 7 - Record: 5-8.

Week 8 - Record: 4-5.

Week 9 - Record: 7-3.

Overall: 31-29-1.

 

[Dragon1952]

Love the Kansas City pick. Here is an excerpt of a write-up I did on this game, with some interesting facts.

"In 51 games dating back to 1983, Kansas City has never been a 15.5 point underdog when facing the San Diego Chargers. In fact, the largest spread in those 51 games was a game last year in San Diego. The Chiefs came in as 12.5 pt. road dogs and won the game SU 30-16. In the last 26 meetings, Kansas City is 15-11 SU and 14-10-2 ATS vs the Chargers. More recently, in the last 5 meetings the Chiefs are 3-2 both SU and ATS.

In the last 15 meetings, the largest margin of victory by either team has been 14, and in 10 of those games the margin of victory was 8 or less. In the last 51 meetings, the winning margin by either team has been more than 16 pts just 9 times, and Kansas City was 7-2 SU in those games.

Another very interesting fact. In 118 roles as home favorites since 1983, San Diego has never been more than a 14 pt. favorite. In their last 6 roles as 12.5-13.5 pt. favorites though, dating back to 2005, they are just 1-5 ATS."

 

[modogg]

Quick question, i see you choose a lot of over/under games, any reason for this? Usually when i look at games i usually bet point spreads and only go to over/unders if there is a reason for it (the Pitt/CLe game early in the year with the 70 mph winds, or SD/NYJ game where Brett Farve loves to throw deep passes on Monday night games).

Well, my internet finally worked and i see some of your older picks were more point spreads, so do you lean over/unders if you don't see many attractive point spreads or does it not make a difference for you? i think point spreads have shown to be more predictable, but i have zero evidence to show this

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Quick question, i see you choose a lot of over/under games, any reason for this? Usually when i look at games i usually bet point spreads and only go to over/unders if there is a reason for it (the Pitt/CLe game early in the year with the 70 mph winds, or SD/NYJ game where Brett Farve loves to throw deep passes on Monday night games). Well, my internet finally worked and i see some of your older picks were more point spreads, so do you lean over/unders if you don't see many attractive point spreads or does it not make a difference for you? i think point spreads have shown to be more predictable, but i have zero evidence to show this

I look at each game and write down what I think the spread and the total should be.Then I look and see what LV says - then I look for differences.I try and see why I leaned away from certain games, and if I can't see it the way LV does, I pick that game.For example - I can't see Detroit doing anything, so that O/U is a call for me.As I've said before, I really don't like unders in general because you can be done with that play in a hurry. If you say "Under" and it is 24-24 at the half you're done, while an "OVER" can win before it is done. That's an emotional call though.So no, I'm not looking to favor spreads or O/Us in particular. That's just how they break for me some weeks.

 

[modogg]

sounds good and makes sense. On a side note, i love your KC pick and think that Carolina giving 9.5 to Oakland is another good looking pick. Oakland is one of those teams that can play above their talent level at home, but i don't know if they have this element this year. And Carolina plays well on the road, should be a pretty easy game for them and i think Oakland starts to show signs of giving up.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

sounds good and makes sense. On a side note, i love your KC pick and think that Carolina giving 9.5 to Oakland is another good looking pick. Oakland is one of those teams that can play above their talent level at home, but i don't know if they have this element this year. And Carolina plays well on the road, should be a pretty easy game for them and i think Oakland starts to show signs of giving up.

Carolina is a good pick as well, especially if JamRussell is out.DeW should run all day on them. Muhsin also gets a big game.

 

[Raider Nation]

Good work. Tough break to lose the Saints/Falcons under on a Hail Mary.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good work. Tough break to lose the Saints/Falcons under on a Hail Mary.

What can you do on that one? That's how she goes sometimes.I think I went 6-3 with one to go. I'll take that.