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Week 11 DFS (1 Viewer)

FatNate

Footballguy
Interesting game tonight on the single game slate.  I believe the New England hype settles down after a surprising loss tonight.  I will have a couple lineups, mostly favoring the Atlanta side, to back up this prediction.  I have not even looked at the main slate, so more to come on that later.

 
FatNate said:
Interesting game tonight on the single game slate.  I believe the New England hype settles down after a surprising loss tonight.  I will have a couple lineups, mostly favoring the Atlanta side, to back up this prediction.  I have not even looked at the main slate, so more to come on that later.
captains for me are Matt Ryan, D Harris (2) and R Stevenson (2).  atlanta can't win without winning the turnover battle, but stranger things have happened.

 
FatNate said:
Interesting game tonight on the single game slate.  I believe the New England hype settles down after a surprising loss tonight.  I will have a couple lineups, mostly favoring the Atlanta side, to back up this prediction.  I have not even looked at the main slate, so more to come on that later.
Sooooo....I hope this is not an indicator of how the week will go!  I could not have been more wrong.

 
Another close call for me on last night's lineup.... went with just one lineup.  $1.10 in and $9.50 out.  Went with a NE smash with NE D in captain, N. Folk, R. Stevenson, D. Harris, M. Jones but picked the wrong Falcon.  Went with M. Davis instead of R. Gage... these were the only two I considered.  Had I picked Gage I would have won $300  :cry:

A really if you think about it Gage was the better choice given the way I constructed the lineup.  So this one is going to hurt for a while - at least until the next close call I get wrong :lol:  

 
Looks like a much tougher week. Most people will be on KC/DAL and GB/MIN, obviously. We're not getting the "free squares" like last week.

 
Looks like a much tougher week. Most people will be on KC/DAL and GB/MIN, obviously. We're not getting the "free squares" like last week.
 Because of higher predictability and I am more likely to tie WRs/TEs with stacks and correlations, I start with RB and DT each week.   

What stood out right away was the projected RB ownership last week vs. this week.    What I noticed was that of the top 5 Rush potential matchups, 3 of the Rbs are projected at 5% or lower.   It's different from last week because NO and Cleve were on that list AND it was the cheap RBs that were lining up for more action.   This week it feels like people are gravitating to the cheap guys JUST because they have to fit in higher $ stacks like KC, Dallas, GB, etc..     When I looked the top 6 ownership RBs are 6.2 (Dillon) or lower.    

Anyway, the top 5 OL/DL matchups for the week were:  GB, Clev, Dallas, NO, Cin.      The bolded are the 3 I am talking about and right now Chubb was RB 10 in ownership.   So what I was thinking about right away was starting off with something like Dillon/Mixon and going from there and see what else I can get in for stacks.  

Then I look at Sack potential, and the top 2 teams there - Chic and Az were also 2% or lower in projections.    

Long story short, what my initial thought became was starting lineups with Zeke/Kamara/Mixon + Chic/Az and that takes care of my low % plays, then just do what I want after that.  

 
Another close call for me on last night's lineup.... went with just one lineup.  $1.10 in and $9.50 out.  Went with a NE smash with NE D in captain, N. Folk, R. Stevenson, D. Harris, M. Jones but picked the wrong Falcon.  Went with M. Davis instead of R. Gage... these were the only two I considered.  Had I picked Gage I would have won $300  :cry:

A really if you think about it Gage was the better choice given the way I constructed the lineup.  So this one is going to hurt for a while - at least until the next close call I get wrong :lol:  
To be that close.  Tough.  

 
Huh.  Dak also showing up at 5% or less.  
Trending at 3.7% on RG -- for FD.  I do think that increases, but if it is even close, then he is a great way to attack that DAL/KC game.  It is harder to predict who to stack him with and he is actually $100 more than Mahommes, but that ownership projection is very intriguing.

 
 Because of higher predictability and I am more likely to tie WRs/TEs with stacks and correlations, I start with RB and DT each week.   

What stood out right away was the projected RB ownership last week vs. this week.    What I noticed was that of the top 5 Rush potential matchups, 3 of the Rbs are projected at 5% or lower.   It's different from last week because NO and Cleve were on that list AND it was the cheap RBs that were lining up for more action.   This week it feels like people are gravitating to the cheap guys JUST because they have to fit in higher $ stacks like KC, Dallas, GB, etc..     When I looked the top 6 ownership RBs are 6.2 (Dillon) or lower.    

Anyway, the top 5 OL/DL matchups for the week were:  GB, Clev, Dallas, NO, Cin.      The bolded are the 3 I am talking about and right now Chubb was RB 10 in ownership.   So what I was thinking about right away was starting off with something like Dillon/Mixon and going from there and see what else I can get in for stacks.  

Then I look at Sack potential, and the top 2 teams there - Chic and Az were also 2% or lower in projections.    

Long story short, what my initial thought became was starting lineups with Zeke/Kamara/Mixon + Chic/Az and that takes care of my low % plays, then just do what I want after that.  
Has Arizona DEF been holding up with Watts out and Murray hurt?  I haven't paid enough attention to know.

 
Any other help on DEF this week?  I will take it!  I have been bottom of the barrel'ing it all season and it has not worked.  I am open to suggestions -- please post some options!  My only requirement this week is single digit ownership, preferable less than 5%, but I am going to budget a little differently this week.  Right now, I am considering Eagles, Bills Dolphins, & Seahawks (if Murray sits).

 
AJ Dillon not a 'free square' this week?


Yes an no. He's $6200 on DraftKings which isn't super cheap (but yeah, he should smash).

Jeff Wilson could be a great value if Mitchell sits.

Keep an eye on the Kamara/Ingram situation. Ingram could be a great play again if Kamara is out.

 
Yes an no. He's $6200 on DraftKings which isn't super cheap (but yeah, he should smash).

Jeff Wilson could be a great value if Mitchell sits.

Keep an eye on the Kamara/Ingram situation. Ingram could be a great play again if Kamara is out.
Definitely two situations to watch for some possible value at RB.

 
Thoughts on Cam at $5100 on DK?

Who will he favor in the passing game? 
Cam is no value on FD, priced at $7500.  I have no interest.  In general, I think his passing ability has almost no upside, but obviously his legs make him viable.  I believe for a few weeks, assuming the scheme is slightly different to take advantage of what he does well, Cam might be in play.  But, once there is tape on him and the schemes, along with the bumps and bruises he picks up in a few weeks Cam will show why it took ten weeks before anyone signed him.  CMC has to stay healthy for Cam to succeed, if you ask me.  I believe others think Anderson might be improved with Cam, but I honestly, I think it would be a dart throw to predict which which WR best fits with Cam.

 
Another close call for me on last night's lineup.... went with just one lineup.  $1.10 in and $9.50 out.  Went with a NE smash with NE D in captain, N. Folk, R. Stevenson, D. Harris, M. Jones but picked the wrong Falcon.  Went with M. Davis instead of R. Gage... these were the only two I considered.  Had I picked Gage I would have won $300  :cry:

A really if you think about it Gage was the better choice given the way I constructed the lineup.  So this one is going to hurt for a while - at least until the next close call I get wrong :lol:  
 I went back and forth on Gage as well. I ended up still landing on Pitts even though it was clear BB was going to try to scheme him out of the game. 

 
Cam is no value on FD, priced at $7500.  I have no interest.  In general, I think his passing ability has almost no upside, but obviously his legs make him viable.  I believe for a few weeks, assuming the scheme is slightly different to take advantage of what he does well, Cam might be in play.  But, once there is tape on him and the schemes, along with the bumps and bruises he picks up in a few weeks Cam will show why it took ten weeks before anyone signed him.  CMC has to stay healthy for Cam to succeed, if you ask me.  I believe others think Anderson might be improved with Cam, but I honestly, I think it would be a dart throw to predict which which WR best fits with Cam.
I think this might be the only week to considering starting Cam on DK. He's still fresh and he's playing against Rivera. And CMC is healthy. And WFT sucks. 

 
Kamara, Mitchell, Hopkins and Cooper out. Dak+Zeke+ Wilson/Gallop could be a good core to start from. Not sure if Chubb+Cle D can fit with that group but they should pummel the Lions.

 
Any other help on DEF this week?  I will take it!  I have been bottom of the barrel'ing it all season and it has not worked.  I am open to suggestions -- please post some options!  My only requirement this week is single digit ownership, preferable less than 5%, but I am going to budget a little differently this week.  Right now, I am considering Eagles, Bills Dolphins, & Seahawks (if Murray sits).
If I don't pay up for Cleveland, I'll play Panthers at home vs WFT or Iggles at home vs Saints.

 
Raging weasel said:
Kamara, Mitchell, Hopkins and Cooper out. Dak+Zeke+ Wilson/Gallop could be a good core to start from. Not sure if Chubb+Cle D can fit with that group but they should pummel the Lions.
With that kind of value.  All things are possible on FD now.  You make anything fit.  
 

Mahommes - Wilson/Ingram/Dillon - Gallup/Hill/Adams - Kelce - Colts

 
Raging weasel said:
Kamara, Mitchell, Hopkins and Cooper out. Dak+Zeke+ Wilson/Gallop could be a good core to start from. Not sure if Chubb+Cle D can fit with that group but they should pummel the Lions.
Just saw those bits of news.    I think Gallup will be pretty chalky now.   Probably Ingram really bounces up the ownership too.   

Still doesn't look like Mixon's ownership has moved, so I am still staring at him a bit, especially in KC/Dallas lus or chalky stacks.  Another interesting week.  

 
At the end of the day, those KC/Dallas stacks are still so expensive and I do worry a bit about using them and eating up so much salary and having to ram in a turd sub 4k WR or two to make it work.  

 
Lastly, using last week as a learning lesson are there any RBs in that same range of the chalky 5-6K RBs that we could use as a low owned pivot?    Tenn Rbs? Gibson?  

 
At the end of the day, those KC/Dallas stacks are still so expensive and I do worry a bit about using them and eating up so much salary and having to ram in a turd sub 4k WR or two to make it work.  


With Cooper out a Dallas stack of Dak-Lamb-Schultz could work. Or you could consider  Cedrick Wilson if you don't mind a riskier play. 

KC is a bit tougher,. Almost forces the use of value backs (Dillon, Ingram, JWilson), but possible.

 
I'm seeing Dak at less that 5% ownership... is that what everyone else is seeing around the industry?  Seems awfully low in the game with the highest Vegas line.

 
I'm seeing Dak at less that 5% ownership... is that what everyone else is seeing around the industry?  Seems awfully low in the game with the highest Vegas line.
As of 11a, this morning, RG is projecting him at 6% for FD. 

 
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Looks like using any of the four most expensive RBs, on FD, gives you a RB projected at less than 8% ownership.  Add in Dak and a low owned DEF.  This strategy should allow you fit several other highly owned options and still be different.

Dak with Kelce/Hill/Gallup. Add in Chubb/Dillon/Wilson.  Add in Renfrow, Beasley or Boyd (at 2% projected ownership).   Toss in a low owned DEF at around $3300-$3800.  Could be a winning recipe. Maybe???

 
Lastly, using last week as a learning lesson are there any RBs in that same range of the chalky 5-6K RBs that we could use as a low owned pivot?    Tenn Rbs? Gibson?  
On FD, Gaskins, Collins, Carter, Montgomery, Foreman, and Sanders are similarly priced.  Really need to see updated ownership projections though. 

 
I just loaded 137 Dak lineups into the $0.05 FD contest :lol:   

This is the lineup with the highest projection:

Dak
J. Wilson
D. Montgomery
M. Gallup
C. Lamb
A. Thielen
T. Kelce
A. Dillon
Browns 

 
I just loaded 137 Dak lineups into the $0.05 FD contest :lol:   

This is the lineup with the highest projection:

Dak
J. Wilson
D. Montgomery
M. Gallup
C. Lamb
A. Thielen
T. Kelce
A. Dillon
Browns 
Wilson was one I was just coming in to ask about.   I was going to look at updated projections, but he stood out as being on a run first team with a high total.   Seeing A.Collins mentioned a bit too for that cheap tag.  

My gpp placeholder this am was very similar to what you have up there:  Dak - Wilson'/Collins/Foreman - Lamb/Gallup/Renfroe - Kelce - Browns    :oldunsure:

ETA:  that LU was for DK

 
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I think dual TE is in play this week, on FD —Kelce and Waller. I won’t have a ton, but a lot more than I have had all season. 

 
Got a bit high last night, forgot that I hadn't done anything with LUs, so entered in my 10 around 11pm last night on my phone.    F-it, just going to keep what I did last night, - can't be worse than the last 2-3 weeks.  Lol/

 
Got a bit high last night, forgot that I hadn't done anything with LUs, so entered in my 10 around 11pm last night on my phone.    F-it, just going to keep what I did last night, - can't be worse than the last 2-3 weeks.  Lol/
I can relate...at least tot he last 3 weeks part, lol.

Trying to rank players inside tiers by highest floor, then as low variance or high variance (trying various variance combos) across lineups.

What could go wrong?  #washrinserepeat

 
Dak owned at 17% on DK and at 14% on FD  :lol:

I gravitated toward him due to the 3% and 6% ownership projections... terrible miss by the DFS industry.   

 
Ha.. had Chubb and Jefferson go off in the early games.   Was just waiting for that Dak stack to come through and collect my money.   Oh...

 
KarmaPolice said:
Got a bit high last night, forgot that I hadn't done anything with LUs, so entered in my 10 around 11pm last night on my phone.    F-it, just going to keep what I did last night, - can't be worse than the last 2-3 weeks.  Lol/
Bolded proven to be 100% false.   

9 of my 10lus were Dallas stacks.  no lu over 93pts currently.  :lmao:

 
150 in 90 out.  The three lineups I used the most, failed to cash much.  One of them just missed the cash line by less than 2pts in multiple contests....grrrrrr!  I had a couple lineups get over 150pts, but nothing special.  Tomorrow, I am going to create a Thanksgiving day only tournament for FD.  I post the details in the Week 12 DFS thread.  

 

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