Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 10 was a nice week, the second 7-3 mark in a row. That pushes me up well over 50% and to the +EV level of over 54% with a 38-32-1 record. Not bad at all. Gotta stay humble and do the homework, and hopefully the roll continues. Let's see how I do this week....
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (UNDER 38.5) - (1 star)
The Dolphins are favored by 10 points, so that means that the expectation is for the Raiders to get 17 or 18 points. Seriously? They're lucky to get that many yards. Miami wins this game in a walkover and could possibly shut out Oakland, something like 24-0. Only RunDMC might get them a score, but I don't see it.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-10) - (1 star)
See above. Only an ultra-conservative Dolphins offense would make this an issue.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-3) - (1 star)
The Bills are getting no love nor any respect. I get that Marshawn Lynch hasn't gotten on track nor has Lee Evans or Trent Edwards had much of any consistency. All that gets cured by the Browns' defense. I see Buffalo easily getting 24+ points here. Cleveland? Well, they rode high off of the emotion of a pseudo-national game on NFL Network last week, and now Quinn has a long time to prep. Buffalo will be ready though, and they will take away Winslow as much as they can, forcing Quinn to hit Braylon Edwards through double coverage. That's a tough one for him. Sedrick Steptoe is not the answer as a WR2, so passing will be limited and that'll be the difference. 24-16 Buffalo.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-14) - (2 stars)
I would flinch at 14 if it wasn't for the Lions. Carolina will have relentless pressure on Culpepper and you may just see a "seasoned sack" from Julius Peppers (get it? Peppers-Culpepper? Funny stuff...).
DeAngelo Williams runs all day, while Delhomme has a respectable game with Muhammad and Steve Smith both being productive. This could be a statement game for Carolina, but odds are that this is over long before the fourth quarter. Carolina 31-10.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - (2 stars)
There's a general theory of riding the hot hand - you'll only lose once. I'll take those odds with the Titans, who travel to Jacksonville this week. The Jags desperately need a win, but I don't quite see how they're going to pull that off. The Titans will key on MJD and force Garrard to beat a very strong secondary. The issues on Jacksonville's defense will be highlighted as Mike Peterson is benched for Daryl Smith. Chris Johnson and LenDale White should send thank you cards to Del Rio today. Titans win by 10, 27-17.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks - (3 stars)
How many reasons to like this one? Kurt Warner, Boldin, Fitz, Hightower - and even Breaston. How good is your offense when your WR3 is a fantasy stud? Arizona's defense is better than many realize, and Seattle is still a mess - even with Hasselbeck coming back. One hit could take him out for the year, but even if he does survive his weapons are still limited. Julius Jones, MoMo and Bobby Engram don't scare anyone. One book has this at 2.5, and I'd love that one. -3 is still acceptable, but I'd hammer the -2.5. Arizona wins this and virtually locks up the division easily, 34-10.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 10 was a nice week, the second 7-3 mark in a row. That pushes me up well over 50% and to the +EV level of over 54% with a 38-32-1 record. Not bad at all. Gotta stay humble and do the homework, and hopefully the roll continues. Let's see how I do this week....
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (UNDER 38.5) - (1 star)
The Dolphins are favored by 10 points, so that means that the expectation is for the Raiders to get 17 or 18 points. Seriously? They're lucky to get that many yards. Miami wins this game in a walkover and could possibly shut out Oakland, something like 24-0. Only RunDMC might get them a score, but I don't see it.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-10) - (1 star)
See above. Only an ultra-conservative Dolphins offense would make this an issue.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-3) - (1 star)
The Bills are getting no love nor any respect. I get that Marshawn Lynch hasn't gotten on track nor has Lee Evans or Trent Edwards had much of any consistency. All that gets cured by the Browns' defense. I see Buffalo easily getting 24+ points here. Cleveland? Well, they rode high off of the emotion of a pseudo-national game on NFL Network last week, and now Quinn has a long time to prep. Buffalo will be ready though, and they will take away Winslow as much as they can, forcing Quinn to hit Braylon Edwards through double coverage. That's a tough one for him. Sedrick Steptoe is not the answer as a WR2, so passing will be limited and that'll be the difference. 24-16 Buffalo.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-14) - (2 stars)
I would flinch at 14 if it wasn't for the Lions. Carolina will have relentless pressure on Culpepper and you may just see a "seasoned sack" from Julius Peppers (get it? Peppers-Culpepper? Funny stuff...).
DeAngelo Williams runs all day, while Delhomme has a respectable game with Muhammad and Steve Smith both being productive. This could be a statement game for Carolina, but odds are that this is over long before the fourth quarter. Carolina 31-10.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - (2 stars)
There's a general theory of riding the hot hand - you'll only lose once. I'll take those odds with the Titans, who travel to Jacksonville this week. The Jags desperately need a win, but I don't quite see how they're going to pull that off. The Titans will key on MJD and force Garrard to beat a very strong secondary. The issues on Jacksonville's defense will be highlighted as Mike Peterson is benched for Daryl Smith. Chris Johnson and LenDale White should send thank you cards to Del Rio today. Titans win by 10, 27-17.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks - (3 stars)
How many reasons to like this one? Kurt Warner, Boldin, Fitz, Hightower - and even Breaston. How good is your offense when your WR3 is a fantasy stud? Arizona's defense is better than many realize, and Seattle is still a mess - even with Hasselbeck coming back. One hit could take him out for the year, but even if he does survive his weapons are still limited. Julius Jones, MoMo and Bobby Engram don't scare anyone. One book has this at 2.5, and I'd love that one. -3 is still acceptable, but I'd hammer the -2.5. Arizona wins this and virtually locks up the division easily, 34-10.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
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