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Week 11 Wire Pickups (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Stompin' Tom Connors
- Start date
4th&inches
Footballguy
Just because you don’t think he’s droppable doesn’t make the question absurd. I don’t generally play in ppr leagues and he’s only topped double digit points 3 times his year (weeks 3,4,5) in those leagues.
Thats why I posed the question; maybe the upside of a Woodhead has a better chance to get you RB2 value than Duke. While I too, believe he’s a hold, I wouldn’t knock someone for dropping him in a short bench league for someone who they feel might have a better shot to hit a homerun.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Ekeler was heavily leaned on in the Jax game, but after his fumble I don't think he went back in. But he's dynamic. Obviously the size limitations will always make him a short leash, but this isn't the first week he has outplayed Gordon.
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
The last couple of weeks, I've accumulated Corey Davis, Inman, and Crowder. Now I need to figure out who to start. I'm leaning toward Davis, but I really feel uneasy about Thursday night games.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Reed owner dropped him for Davis, and Jordan didn't get picked up last night. I dropped ASJ (bye) for a 2nd DST last night, rolling with Witten until Olsen comes back. Any reason to think Reed's hammy will be a go this week?
need2know
Footballguy
I'm taking a chance. Have Henry as well. I dropped asj for Reed as I hate the jets Ros schedule. He practiced last week and I will start him if he plays. Worth the risk to me
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Right, but you have a plan B if he doesn't go. I'd be dropping my only TE, and if I wait, he'll probably be gone. I guess I could drop LAC but I like their pairing with BAL.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
djmich
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Absolutely. If the Seahawks are smart, they will turn him into Chris Thompson or James White and mostly abandon traditional running
beerbuff
Footballguy
In PPR slam dunk yes. In standardI'd say the reality is a 50/50 bet but McKissic has shiny new toy written all over him.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Got Perine & Burkhead for free in my 10 team league. Jamal Williams, Latavius Murray, and Woodhead went for $10-$22 FAAB
DocHolliday
Footballguy
You may know more about the situation but Prosise was hurt off and on. SEA started trying to use Lacy and then Carson. Of course, Carson was injured opening the door for the other RBs. Lacy has struggled. Seems like Prosise is the best option left for a team that cannot run the ball. In PPR, Prosise, has some potential value.
in2win
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
My little brain can't handle owning Packers, Patriots, or Seahawks RBs this year. Every week it's a different flavor, and in two weeks, one of the four will be the guy to own. Seems like it's been that way all year.
4th&inches
Footballguy
I know it's a little early, but there any insight into Aaron Rodgers' possible return in week 15? I know in a lot of leagues he was dropped outright and IF he can come back for the 2nd round of the FF playoffs, he'd likely be an upgrade over most other QB's...right?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He's had a bigger market share of targets than Drake, but 3 targets is nothing special. McKissic had 5 targets / 4 catches last week, I guess everyone wants to find the next Chris Thompson.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Off and on? Before last week (which Prosise barely played, he hadn't played since week 3.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
No one knows. A lot will depend on whether the Pack stay competitive.
In 2013 Rodgers hurt his non-throwing shoulder, and I guess they took a lot pictures while he was healing - which actually slows the process. So this time around (throwing shoulder), they are not monitoring his progress through MRI or X-rays. So no one really knows where he's at, and if GB loses at Pittsburgh and at Carolina, I'd say the odds are pretty low we'll see him in again in 2017.
The Lions are two back but it's really one game because they beat the Vikings once already. If Detroit wins on Thanksgiving, they have a relatively easy path to a division title. The Pack are the 9th seed right now and cannot afford losses between now and the Vikings/@Lions finish.
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Skoo
Footballguy
Somehow, with the last waiver spot, I landed Jamaal Williams and Perine. Hopefully will never have to start either as I have Fournette and Howard, but I'm happy with the depth.
I kind of like being in the last waiver spot, especially this time of year. There's a couple of guys that don't put claims in and then pickup players at like 3:00am after they run, trying to move up in the waiver order. Fine by me, I'll stay here at the back and just keep claiming all the players I want.
I kind of like being in the last waiver spot, especially this time of year. There's a couple of guys that don't put claims in and then pickup players at like 3:00am after they run, trying to move up in the waiver order. Fine by me, I'll stay here at the back and just keep claiming all the players I want.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
Landed Perine and Crowder. Now I have 3 Redskins on my team including Doctson 
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I agree on this.
When I have a high waiver priority I overthink it and covet it. Almost obsessively. I don’t want to miss out on that #1 guy in the weeks to follow.
When I’m middle/back of the pack, I just load it up on 2-3 guys and hope for the best and usually get my first or second choice and am really happy. I also stream defenses and when my waiver is low I’ll use it on a strong weekly start as well without much hesitation which seems to make my teams better.
Rodgers is eligible to return Wk 15 vs. Carolina.
IMO, the Packers need to go 2-2 the next four games for AR to play Wk 15. That would put them at 7-6 and still in the hunt. They play BAL/PIT/TB/CLE so doable.
In addition, the Lions not only play MIN but also BAL. They could easily be 7-6 after the next four games.
I am holding onto Rodgers unless there is a setback and he doesn't start throwing in practice as scheduled.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Somehow I got Perine on a $3 FAAB bid I just put out for no reason. Stunned no one else bid for him outside of 1 guy with $0 FAAB left, everyone went for Williams. Heck, one guy about to clinch a playoff spot bid $10 on Butker (beating out my $3 bid). Luckily I got Elliot after waivers.
Now... do I even start him? I already had Lat Murray, Collins, Alf Morris, Marlon Mack (Bye) and Rod Smith. Only can start up to 3 RBs.
Now... do I even start him? I already had Lat Murray, Collins, Alf Morris, Marlon Mack (Bye) and Rod Smith. Only can start up to 3 RBs.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Because of:
This: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/devante-mays/
vs
This: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jamaal-williams/
Mays has not been deactived all year and there were times in preseason and during the year whete the pecking order was unclear. If you’re picking up Williams you’re hoping for catches and TD’s because I expect him to prove himself a plodder pretty quickly.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
Yeah, I may drop Marlon Mack for Mays as soon as I get some practice report info, hearing Montgomery may try play this week. I expect GB to be in alot of negative game script, if Mays can pass protect he has to skills to pickup alot of receptions.
I know this is OT, but still my favorite Draft Player Profile.
I know this is OT, but still my favorite Draft Player Profile.
flapgreen
Footballguy
The McKissic love is more about the situation.
- The offensive line is bad but he has consistently been able to get yards where others haven't.
- He is the exclusive passing downs back in an offense that has become throw first because all the other runners are ineffective.
- PC is a coach who does not let draft pedigree or veteran status dictate a player's opportunity. He is undrafted and could very well be a work horse by year's end.
Those things make him a very intriguing pick up in my book. Also, he is probably free to get and therefore, an easy drop if it doesn't work out.
- The offensive line is bad but he has consistently been able to get yards where others haven't.
- He is the exclusive passing downs back in an offense that has become throw first because all the other runners are ineffective.
- PC is a coach who does not let draft pedigree or veteran status dictate a player's opportunity. He is undrafted and could very well be a work horse by year's end.
Those things make him a very intriguing pick up in my book. Also, he is probably free to get and therefore, an easy drop if it doesn't work out.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Seems like pretty heavy reliance on the combine metrics
Mays wasn't invited to the combine. He did work out at his pro day.
Just looking at the pro day times, I don't find those to be particularly impressive except for the jump numbers.
Weight 230 lbs
40 yard dash 4.52
3 cone drill 7.43
Shuttle 4.53
Vertical jump 40.5"
Broad Jump 10' 9"
The metrics that actually matter for a RB are 40 yard dash, 3 cone drill and weight. The only one that might be considered good is his weight.
Andre Williams had similarly high jump numbers to Mayes with a better 3 cone and shuttle times (not that I think shuttle matters) but he wasn't a very good NFL RB. He got a lot of opportunity to prove he wasn't good enough as well.
The formulas being used by Kelly that you cite factor in weight too much in their formulas for the speed score.
It seems you are putting a lot of faith in the jump numbers that I haven't seen evidence of those mattering enough to care.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Drake or Perine ROS? Both are sitting on my wire
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would rather have Perine. Better offensive line and coaching.
Drake does have more speed and big play ability.
tkrull
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I actually don’t think Mays profile is fantastic (low collegiate production, low target share) so let’s not put words in my mouth. I think Williams is a backup level talent. Guys like him come and go. His ceiling sucks. At very least Mays has a very high ceiling.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't think I am putting words in your mouth. I asked why you think Mayes is a better prospect than Williams is.
Your response was because of the player profiler graphs. The measured athleticism.
The graphs themselves are very misleading showing Williams as below 50 percentile while for Mayes several metrics that are above 50 percentile.
When looking at the actual numbers you find that the two players are actually very similar to each other, Williams 4.53 forty time at his pro day and Mayes 4.52 forty time.
The main difference metric wise between the two players is the weight, 230 lbs for Mayes compared to 212 lbs for Williams.
In Kellys formula this makes Mayes speed score 78th percentile while Williams speed score 42nd percentile. So what I am trying to point out here is that the speed score is very flawed metric to show this large of a difference, when the actual speed is only one hundredth of a second difference. I am guessing that Kelly is mixing combine metrics with pro day metrics, which is a big no no to do. He does adjust Mayes 40 time down to 4.57 I assume because it was pro day, but a more apples to apples comparison would be using both players pro day metrics instead of his imprecise adjustment. I am not even sure if he used the adjusted 40 time in his speed score formula.
I am just trying to help you out here. The graphs show a big difference between these players, when the actual metrics are hardly any discernible difference.
The advanced metrics that Kelly is selling are riddled with noise and misinformation.
The athletic metrics should only be 10% of the entire player evaluation in my view, but since this is the only thing I have heard you point to as why Mays might have a higher ceiling, that is what I have focused on. As you say the college production for Williams was much better than Mays, and how they have earned opportunity so far in the NFL is clearly in Williams favor as well. Yet you are quick to dismiss Williams as having low upside, while saying that Mayes has higher upside based purely off these largely irrelevant metrics.
JFS171
Footballguy
I think you misunderstood me. I'm saying I never understood why they had Williams ahead of Jones other than pass pro. Williams has never impressed me (contrary to Jones). From the highlights I've seen of Mays, he may pass Williams just as easily as Jones did ... that was my point.
JFS171
Footballguy
In the Mays thread guys pointed out how outstanding Mays' production was as a junior. He then battled injuries his entire senior year, so that's part of the potential excitement for Mays -- he looked like a 3rd or 4th round guy in his own right during his junior season.
My preference for Mays is mostly what also led me to Jones - I don't see much when I watch Williams. I may be completely wrong there, but I wasn't impressed all preseason and I haven't been impressed to date with what I've seen in the regular season.
If you want to place a bet against Williams, that leaves Mays.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
That seems to be Bojangs point as well.
I don't see any reason to think that.
While I am not particularly impressed with Williams either compared to other RB prospects I do think there is hard evidence that shows he is a better player than Mays. Such as the college production. Draft position and watching Williams play.
To be fair I haven't really watched Mays to evaluate him on that basis as I didn't think it was worth my time to do so.
JFS171
Footballguy
Copying the following from the Mays Thread:
ETA - only 37 carries his senior season due to those aforementioned injuries.
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JFS171
Footballguy
Regarding the McKissic discussion, I wouldn't be shocked to see Mike Davis get a shot to do something here. I think if they were going to hand the keys over to McKissic, that would have happened already. Instead they shoehorned Lacy, then tried with Rawls, and have tried to mix in Prosise. Injuries have certainly played a role with those guys, but Seattle seems to be searching for reasons to not use JDM.
Mike Davis was a good prospect (especially following his junior season at USC). He was drafted behind Hyde and didn't get much of a shot with the multiple regime turnovers in SF. Seattle claimed him off waivers, and he looked like their best back this preseason. There were rumors they wanted to keep him on the practice squad until at least week 13 so he wouldn't accumulate a year of service, and thus they'd have him under contract for 2018 too. However, he'll now be a restricted FA in 2018.
He's playing with a huge chip on his shoulder, has "fresh legs" ... and Seattle very well may have cut their two best backs in getting to the final 53 (letting Collins and Davis go). Time will tell, but I think he's worth a spot in deep leagues.
Mike Davis was a good prospect (especially following his junior season at USC). He was drafted behind Hyde and didn't get much of a shot with the multiple regime turnovers in SF. Seattle claimed him off waivers, and he looked like their best back this preseason. There were rumors they wanted to keep him on the practice squad until at least week 13 so he wouldn't accumulate a year of service, and thus they'd have him under contract for 2018 too. However, he'll now be a restricted FA in 2018.
He's playing with a huge chip on his shoulder, has "fresh legs" ... and Seattle very well may have cut their two best backs in getting to the final 53 (letting Collins and Davis go). Time will tell, but I think he's worth a spot in deep leagues.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Misinformation? There can be problems with any metric if you want to make it so. Do 40 numbers tell the whole story? No, because 10, 20 and 40 yard splits do matter. Each number is only a piece of the puzzle. I hardly watch or “scout” anymore because I realized I am not a scout and I don’t know the X’s and O’s of football. Where you can decifer whether a player is good or not is combined in these metrics plus stats. Does that occasionally put you behind when you look at a player like Adam Thielen and can’t totally decifer where his end point is? Sure, but it also helps when as that player evolves you can see he is a star while others are still confused about his profile. If I had to put money on either of these players being a star, I wouldn’t. Williams lacks the high level traits to maintain a starting RB position in the NFL. When you say he can play the position, I have no doubt about that. He produced in college despite the inferior athleticism and appears to be able to catch the ball out of the backfield. Mays is the opposite where he has a subpar collegiate profile but ticks the boxes on what you want to see in an RB athletically. When discussing who I am taking in Williams vs Mays I am going to go with the guy who most resembles the athletic profile I want in a RB with the ceiling to make an impact. There are other reasons why Mays collegiate production looks inferior which include transferring from a small school and injuries. Perhaps I should have given a clearer thought at the beginning to say that if I was doing waivers this week with any semblance of FAAB budget I would focus on Burkhead and if I wanted a piece of GB backfield I would take Mays for nothing over chasing around what I think is a ghost in Williams. Williams probably does offer value in getting volume with TyMont out, I just don’t know how far that will get you. Could be wrong though even if it is a short term being wrong. Worse backs then Williams have had nice stretches of play. Look at Samkon Gado, Rob Kelley and Mike Anderson.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
966 rushing yards in 2015 according to this not a huge difference, if 6 was 9.
He split carries with two other RB in 2015 and barely any production as a receiver. That role of a receiving RB seems to have gone to Lajuan Hunt who had 27 receptions to Mayes one.
I don't find his rushing totals from 2015 to be very impressive considering he played in 13 games. 74 rushing yards per game. Looking at the game logs you see an inconsistent player who enjoyed most of his success against Fresno State, Wyoming, Nevada, Akron and relatively poor performance against some of the better schools on his schedule, such as New Mexico and Bringham Young.
