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Week 12 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Chaka

Footballguy
DST, pick 1 (scoring is based only on sacks, turnovers, blocks, and DST TDs)

Dal vs NYG
KC vs LAR


Kickers, pick 1

Folk vs Min
McPherson vs Ten
Myers vs LV

(yes, I stocked up on DST and K to block opponents in need this week)
Since D scoring apparently is not based on shutouts I look at which teams make the most splash plays (TOs & sacks) and compare to how many the opponent gives up.

The Cowboys have 42 sacks (32 for KC) and 16 turnovers forced (10 for KC).

The Rams have given up 35 sacks (30 for NYG) and 15 turnovers (11 for the Giants).

By my math that gives a slight edge to the Cowboys (+7). The Giants will also be without Evan Neal (been out the last three games) and Jon Feliciano (10 game starter) and also their swing tackle Josh Eznuda.

Defenses are random number generators but since you have to make the decision by Thursday, before we know the status of Stafford, Dallas seems like the better option.

DAL>KC

For the kicker, also random number generators, I typically try to choose a guy from a team I think will win their game. In my book Myers has the best shot, he is also averaging the most PPG.

Myers>Folk>McPherson
 
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xenon

Footballguy
Thanks again...I appreciate the thoughtfulness and assistance for my considerations

Standard scoring, PPR, bonus at 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
italicized players are who I am leaning toward

RB (x1) to pair w/ Taylor
Edwards (*if active)
Wilson
Mitchell

WR (x2)
Keenan
Jakobi Myers

Dionte Johnson
Nico Collins

Flex (x1)
Any of the above not selected...leaning RB Wilson.........

.................but please reply w/ second FLEX choice as result of Edwards potentially NOT being active in which case I lean towards sliding Wilson into RB2. THANK YOU
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Thanks again...I appreciate the thoughtfulness and assistance for my considerations

Standard scoring, PPR, bonus at 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
italicized players are who I am leaning toward

RB (x1) to pair w/ Taylor
Edwards (*if active)
Wilson
Mitchell

WR (x2)
Keenan
Jakobi Myers

Dionte Johnson
Nico Collins

Flex (x1)
Any of the above not selected...leaning RB Wilson.........

.................but please reply w/ second FLEX choice as result of Edwards potentially NOT being active in which case I lean towards sliding Wilson into RB2. THANK YOU
RE:
Jeff Wilson? 100% him, even if Gus is active and doesn't have an injury designation. That Houston rush D is terrible and Wilson has come in and immediately supplanted Mostert. He had 4% to 47% snap share against the Bears and followed that with 61% to 28% against the Browns. It's too good of a matchup and opportunity and he provides you the luxury of taking a wait and see approach with Gus. Mitchell isn't even in the conversation. Love what he's doing but you have to rely on blowouts and even then he may only see 9 carries (like last week).

Wilson>Gus>Mitchell

WR:
Definitely Keenan IMO.

Yeah I have no real problem with your choices. Although I still might favor Diontae over Meyers a little bit mostly because he's been the squeaky wheel this week. Both he and Tomlin have commented on it. No guarantee that translates into anything, in fact it is 100% speculation so best to ignore it entirely. Minnesota defense is markedly worse in every relevant passing metric. Meyers & Johnson have very similar target probabilities (I think Diontae's is higher but not sure they are of such quality where that makes a huge difference considering Meyers is catching the ball at a 76% rate compared to 59% for Diontae.

Collins is fine and the matchup seems okay but there is a QB change and that offense runs through Pierce IMO. They're just a bad team and I don't bank on bad teams when I have better, IMO, options.

Keenan>Meyers>Diontae>Nico

Flex:
Follow the practice reports. If Gus is playing I guess I give him the chance because I think he has a higher TD probability than Mitchell or Diontae. But because it's a PPR you may want to consider Diontae if Gus is limited all week. Gus isn't involved in the passing game. Mitchell could be an option too, I guess but it means you are banking on a blowout, which is a distinct possibility with Andy Dalton under center for the Saints.

Gus*>Diontae>Mitchell
 

xenon

Footballguy
Thanks again...I appreciate the thoughtfulness and assistance for my considerations

Standard scoring, PPR, bonus at 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
italicized players are who I am leaning toward

RB (x1) to pair w/ Taylor
Edwards (*if active)
Wilson
Mitchell

WR (x2)
Keenan
Jakobi Myers

Dionte Johnson
Nico Collins

Flex (x1)
Any of the above not selected...leaning RB Wilson.........

.................but please reply w/ second FLEX choice as result of Edwards potentially NOT being active in which case I lean towards sliding Wilson into RB2. THANK YOU
RE:
Jeff Wilson? 100% him, even if Gus is active and doesn't have an injury designation. That Houston rush D is terrible and Wilson has come in and immediately supplanted Mostert. He had 4% to 47% snap share against the Bears and followed that with 61% to 28% against the Browns. It's too good of a matchup and opportunity and he provides you the luxury of taking a wait and see approach with Gus. Mitchell isn't even in the conversation. Love what he's doing but you have to rely on blowouts and even then he may only see 9 carries (like last week).

Wilson>Gus>Mitchell

WR:
Definitely Keenan IMO.

Yeah I have no real problem with your choices. Although I still might favor Diontae over Meyers a little bit mostly because he's been the squeaky wheel this week. Both he and Tomlin have commented on it. No guarantee that translates into anything, in fact it is 100% speculation so best to ignore it entirely. Minnesota defense is markedly worse in every relevant passing metric. Meyers & Johnson have very similar target probabilities (I think Diontae's is higher but not sure they are of such quality where that makes a huge difference considering Meyers is catching the ball at a 76% rate compared to 59% for Diontae.

Collins is fine and the matchup seems okay but there is a QB change and that offense runs through Pierce IMO. They're just a bad team and I don't bank on bad teams when I have better, IMO, options.

Keenan>Meyers>Diontae>Nico

Flex:
Follow the practice reports. If Gus is playing I guess I give him the chance because I think he has a higher TD probability than Mitchell or Diontae. But because it's a PPR you may want to consider Diontae if Gus is limited all week. Gus isn't involved in the passing game. Mitchell could be an option too, I guess but it means you are banking on a blowout, which is a distinct possibility with Andy Dalton under center for the Saints.

Gus*>Diontae>Mitchell
THANK YOU!! @Chaka
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Dak vs NYG
Kyler vs LAC
Well, you have to make this decision tomorrow, which is problematic IMO because even though Kyler said he's going to play this week against the Chargers we're talking about a hamstring here and there seems to be room for a setback to occur.

Kyler has the better matchup to be sure but Dak has been performing at a slightly higher level than Kyler since he returned in week 7 and over their last four games respectively. I think he offers enough safe floor and upside that I wouldn't want to deal with the Murray hamstring headache this week.

Dak>Murray
 

Game Time

Footballguy
.5 PPR , .1 per yard, 6 pts TD

Pick 1:
Jamaal Williams
Miles Sanders
DeAndre Swift
Parris Campbell
Greg Dulcich (1 PPR)
 

Phantom Knight

Footballguy
Treylon Burks vs Christan Watson.
Pick one for Week 12/ROS. PPR. 20 yards = 1 point. 3 points per td. NO POINTS FOR RUSHING/RUSHING TDS. (Did I mention I HATE the scoring format in this league?).

Edit to add: I had Watson. I dropped him for Burks due to my projection that Burks will receive a larger number of targets (and so I believe a higher floor) coupled with my belief that Watson can't (right?) continue to produce tds every week.
 
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Chaka

Footballguy
.5 PPR , .1 per yard, 6 pts TD

Pick 1:
Jamaal Williams
Miles Sanders
DeAndre Swift
Parris Campbell
Greg Dulcich (1 PPR)
I mean, how do you bench Jamaal at this point? Certainly not for D'Andre. I get it, we're all waiting for the wheels to fall off and when he doesn't score he doesn't help much in PPR formats. Over the last three games he averages 19 carries for 68 yards. Not great for sure, particularly as he has zero receptions over that span and only has 12 targets all season. But the TDs man, the TDs. He has a TD in 6 of 10 games, since D'Andre came back Jamaal has a TD in 3 of 4 games. He has 4 games with 2 TDs and 1 game with 3 TDs. The Lions offense is humming,
The Lions have the #8 scoring offense despite scoring a combined 6 points in two games (@ NE, @ DAL). They average just under 31 points in their 8 other games, with only one game under 21 points and five games over 30 points scored.
Obviously it's not a guarantee and a 6 point floor is ungood for you. But I really have trouble benching this guy.

I do like Miles Sanders even after having two very disappointing games. He has a TD in 5 of 10 games and gets 17 opportunities per game on the #4 scoring offense in the NFL. Green Bay is also a better matchup than Buffalo. He's not much of a factor in the passing game but neither is Williams. Good backup option if you think this is when the wheels fall off for Jamaal.

As a guy who has both D'Andre & Jamaal rostered, I can't start Swift over Williams. Can't do it. I often start them both, because capturing the Lions rushing output overall gives you a low RB1 + a mid RB2 overall. But, despite talent etc. etc. etc. I won't start Swift over Jamaal...again (did it last week because I'm an idiot, never again).

I definitely like Campbell and his chemistry with Ryan. I think.his floor is as stable as either Sanders or Jamaal, maybe safer as 3 for 30 gets him to Jamaal's floor and 4-40 gets him to Sanders. I think he has decent upside as well but he's not a 100 yard and a couple scores guy, IMO, even against Pittsburgh pass vulnerable defense (which is likely a lot less vulnerable with TJ Watt & Minkah Fitzpatrick back).

Tough call but good options IMO.

Jamaal>Sanders>Campbell
 

Pigskin Fanatic

Footballguy
IF we assume Mixon is out this week, Zeke at home v Giants or Perine @ Tennesee? start 2 RB, my other RB will be Pollard. I have all four of mixon, perine, zeke, and pollard.

if mixon was for sure out, or if he was 100% okay, then i'd take mixon or perine over zeke in a heartbeat. but there is uncerntainty there and the dallas game is thursday, so either i go into sunday hoping for clarity on the cinci backfield before sunday or take my chances with the dallas backfield at home in what should be a heavy dose of the run game at home. i can see both zeke and pollard feasting. my only real concern is mixon starting the game not 100% and then perine takes over like last week as well as at least a couple of game last season in similar situation with a mixon injury.

thanks for your input.
 

titusbramble

Footballguy
Just going to list Thursday questions:

Half PPR, need two. Thinking we can't give up on Kamara despite mediocre performances and a bad matchup, then I think it's close for the second one:
Stevenson @ Vikings (Thursday)
Elliott vs Giants (Thursday)
Kamara @ 49ers
Sanders vs Packers (Monday)

Half PPR, need two. Completely undecided here, basically a "do I start either back tonight" question, I'm tempted to say Singletary yes, Zeke no:
Singletary @ Lions (Thursday)
Elliott vs Giants (Thursday)
Wilson vs Texans
Montgomery @ Jets
Pacheco vs Rams
Lockett vs Raiders

QB sanity checks, have similar decisions between these so posting them all as a "rank these" question. Assume 4/passing TD, but if 6/TD would change your outlook enough then please mention
Jones @ Cowboys (Thursday)
Cousins vs Patriots (Thursday)
Carr @ Seahawks
Brady @ Browns
 

kface

Footballguy
Just going to list Thursday questions:

Half PPR, need two. Thinking we can't give up on Kamara despite mediocre performances and a bad matchup, then I think it's close for the second one:
Stevenson @ Vikings (Thursday)
Elliott vs Giants (Thursday)
Kamara @ 49ers
Sanders vs Packers (Monday)

Half PPR, need two. Completely undecided here, basically a "do I start either back tonight" question, I'm tempted to say Singletary yes, Zeke no:
Singletary @ Lions (Thursday)
Elliott vs Giants (Thursday)
Wilson vs Texans
Montgomery @ Jets
Pacheco vs Rams
Lockett vs Raiders

QB sanity checks, have similar decisions between these so posting them all as a "rank these" question. Assume 4/passing TD, but if 6/TD would change your outlook enough then please mention
Jones @ Cowboys (Thursday)
Cousins vs Patriots (Thursday)
Carr @ Seahawks
Brady @ Browns

Stevenson and Kamara in half ppr for sure

Montgomery nad locket in half ppr in the second group

Those are sad qb choices but i would go carr because the other D's are great
 

JIslander

Footballguy
Reason for my Yahoo IR post. With loss of Kupp, desperate for a WR1/ 2 for playoffs (if I’m fortunate enough to make it) — don’t want to drop my kicker (Butker) as I’m already projected to lose — was thinking of grabbing Mercole off IR waivers but I’d have to drop Kupp to do it— would you?
 

BladeRunner

Footballguy
Reason for my Yahoo IR post. With loss of Kupp, desperate for a WR1/ 2 for playoffs (if I’m fortunate enough to make it) — don’t want to drop my kicker (Butker) as I’m already projected to lose — was thinking of grabbing Mercole off IR waivers but I’d have to drop Kupp to do it— would you?
This is redraft, right? If so, then Kupp isn't coming back this year so I would do it.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Weird one here.

Need a second flex in my SF league (PPR):

Carr @ SEA
White @ CLE
Perkins @ KC

Carr is the safe play, while White is really only a consideration if Lenny sits.

Perkins is the wild card assuming he starts - very unproven and the weapons are decimated but he offers a lot with his legs. And should be a very negative game script for the Rams chasing the Chiefs - potential for garbage points.

Total points league - rest of my lineup is:

QB Allen
RB Barkley
RB Etienne
WR Metcalf
WR Pittman
WR London
TE Higbee or Njoku
DEF Miami
FLEX Pollard
FLEX ?

Thanks again
 

rockaction

Footballguy
was thinking of grabbing Mercole off IR waivers but I’d have to drop Kupp to do it— would you?

Kupp is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with his ankle surgery, per ESPN.
____________________________________________________________________________


"The tightrope surgery that Kupp underwent last week typically sidelines players six to eight weeks. Some players have returned to play ahead of that timeline, while others have taken longer.

Rams rookie running back Kyren Williams had the same surgery that Kupp did and was practicing in five weeks, while rookie linebacker Daniel Hardy had the same surgery this past summer and still hasn't been cleared to return to practice." - Adam Schefter
_____________________________________________________________________________

He's pretty much droppable, I'd say, though if you're holding out hope, I don't want to be the one to talk you out anything. This is for informational purposes only, JIslander.
 

jcab2000

Footballguy
Need to start 1 RB and 1 Flex of:
Sanders vs GB
Singletary vs DET
Montgomery vs NYJ
Williams vs BUF
Elliot vs NYG

Really torn on this one. I could argue just about anyone except Elliot. Right now I have Singletary and Montgomery in the lineup. Not crazy about the Williams matchup vs. BUF.
 

sho nuff

Footballguy
Standard scoring.
Do I trust Tyler Boyd? Matchup is great (so was last weeks).
Boyd @TN
Jakobi Meyers @ MN tonight
George Pickens @ Indy (bad matchup)
Garrett Wilson v Chi (waiting to see how qb affects this)
DJ Moore vs Den (ditto on QB)

Leaning Boyd but tempted by Meyers
 
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chad in Indy

Footballguy
Okay Super-Flex, PPR:

Is it worth keeping Jared Goff in as my Super-Flex QB?

Need 2 Flex (QB optional) starters in bold green.

QBs:
Lamar Jackson @ JAX
Jared Goff v BUF

RBs"
Jamaal Williams v BUF
D'Andre Swift v BUF
Kenyan Drake @ JAX
Gus Edwards @ JAX
Elijah Mitchell v NOS
Latavius Murray @ CAR
James Robinson v CHI

WRs:
Justin Jefferson v NEP
ARSB v BUF
Christian Watson @ PHI
Courtland Sutton @ CAR
Kararius Toney v LAR
Man. Is this the Handcuff team or what!?!

I agree a Swift assessment. Think the team wants him to be the guy, but he is improvising too much instead of running where he is supposed to. Gus is the better RB, but I'd like to see him get through a game healthy.

If you are favored in your matchup, I always prefer to diversify and would swap out Watson for Swift. Watson should still see enough targets in a game GB likely will be playing from behind.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Treylon Burks vs Christan Watson.
Pick one for Week 12/ROS. PPR. 20 yards = 1 point. 3 points per td. NO POINTS FOR RUSHING/RUSHING TDS. (Did I mention I HATE the scoring format in this league?).

Edit to add: I had Watson. I dropped him for Burks due to my projection that Burks will receive a larger number of targets (and so I believe a higher floor) coupled with my belief that Watson can't (right?) continue to produce tds every week.
Well they're both coming off very good games but this week I imagine Burks has the better matchup by every relevant metric.

RoS is a different story, I guess but you're going to get an extra game out of Burks as Watson has a week 14 bye.

I do like Watson's schedule a little more because Tennessee has a week 17 matchup vs Dallas, which is most Championships week (& week 13 @ PHI). Jax, LAC & Hou are also great.

GB finishes with Chi, LAR, Mia & Min (week 17) so there is no real bad matchup.

It is close and I could go either way but ATM I personally have Watson rostered, ultimately because nothing cures a bad game like a late TD, and Burks is somewhat surprisingly available in my league.

Week 12:
Burks>Watson

RoS:
Watson>Burks
 

Chaka

Footballguy
IF we assume Mixon is out this week, Zeke at home v Giants or Perine @ Tennesee? start 2 RB, my other RB will be Pollard. I have all four of mixon, perine, zeke, and pollard.

if mixon was for sure out, or if he was 100% okay, then i'd take mixon or perine over zeke in a heartbeat. but there is uncerntainty there and the dallas game is thursday, so either i go into sunday hoping for clarity on the cinci backfield before sunday or take my chances with the dallas backfield at home in what should be a heavy dose of the run game at home. i can see both zeke and pollard feasting. my only real concern is mixon starting the game not 100% and then perine takes over like last week as well as at least a couple of game last season in similar situation with a mixon injury.

thanks for your input.
PPR?

Yeah, the fact that you have to decide today really muddies this issue.

Bottom line is I think Zeke is a safe start at home, against a very bad Giants rush D.

The good news is, since we're talking about the concussion protocol Mixon either will play or will not. There is no middle ground of "limited participant" or "how hurt is he really?" questions. So if you want to wait, you have the luxury (getting reinjured, or just appearing to, and pulled early is a possibility though, would love to see the data for the new concussion rules of players getting pulled early the week after exiting the concussion protocol. But we won't really have enough info until mid season 2023).

For me, I question if I would start Perine over Zeke in general. He is used in the passing game more (not sure this is PPR) which is good because Tennessee legit has one of the best rush D's in the league (82 ypg #2, 3.9 ypc #3, 2 rush TDs #1). Samaje better catch a bunch of passes because there isn't much hope for the ground game.

For reference NYG 136 ypg #25, 5.3 ypc #31, 9 rush TDs tied #11-#17

Because this is a decision about risk management:

Zeke>Mixon>Samaje
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Just going to list Thursday questions:

Half PPR, need two. Thinking we can't give up on Kamara despite mediocre performances and a bad matchup, then I think it's close for the second one:
Stevenson @ Vikings (Thursday)
Elliott vs Giants (Thursday)
Kamara @ 49ers
Sanders vs Packers (Monday)
Since it's 0.5 PPR Stevenson is tough to bench. I have a little hesitation with Harris now back in full health but the snap share was something like 75%-25% so I think Stevenson is trustworthy.

I do hate Kamara's matchup and I am not sure I give him a mulligan so easily. He has been pretty mediocre as a runner this season and has only scored in one of nine games. This is not a good Saints team on the road against a surging 49ers team (#4 in scoring & #1 vs the run). Now Kamara does get over 6 targets per game so he probably has a good floor and, I think but not sure, he still has that huge game upside but I do worry this could get a little ugly for the Saints.

Elliot has a solid matchup today against a soft Giants run defense but he really isn't involved in the passing game which makes him more TD dependent. I would definitely consider him over Kamara but not sure I would actually make that call if I was facing it myself.

Sanders also isn't much in the passing game. He does score more regularly than either Kamara or Stevenson but his floor, like Zeke is pretty low.

Stevenson>Kamara>Zeke>Sanders
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Half PPR, need two. Completely undecided here, basically a "do I start either back tonight" question, I'm tempted to say Singletary yes, Zeke no:
Singletary @ Lions (Thursday)
Elliott vs Giants (Thursday)
Wilson vs Texans
Montgomery @ Jets
Pacheco vs Rams
Lockett vs Raiders
Apologies, I am going to have to go Lightning round as I have stuff to prepare for today.

Good choices all around.

For me Wilson is a must start as it really looks like he is the full time lead back in that great offense facing maybe the worst run defense in the league.

Then it comes down to Zeke v Singletary...possibly v Lockett. If it was full PPR I would say Lockett because of the matchup but at 0.5 his floor is relatively low.

Zeke is facing a soft Giants run defense and he should see about 15 touches but he doesn't help you much in the passing game.

Singletary should also see 15 touches at least, is a little more involved in the passing game and, like Wilson, is facing one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Like Pacheco but no passing game love.

Montgomery has a very tough matchup.

Wilson>Singletary>Lockett>Zeke>Pacheco>Montgomery
 

Chaka

Footballguy
QB sanity checks, have similar decisions between these so posting them all as a "rank these" question. Assume 4/passing TD, but if 6/TD would change your outlook enough then please mention
Jones @ Cowboys (Thursday)
Cousins vs Patriots (Thursday)
Carr @ Seahawks
Brady @ Browns
Very close options. But I think Carr is your most reliable to yield 250 & 2 TD.

Carr>D.Jones>Brady>Cousins
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Reason for my Yahoo IR post. With loss of Kupp, desperate for a WR1/ 2 for playoffs (if I’m fortunate enough to make it) — don’t want to drop my kicker (Butker) as I’m already projected to lose — was thinking of grabbing Mercole off IR waivers but I’d have to drop Kupp to do it— would you?
I mean, you have to wait a couple weeks on Mecole to return anyway, is there any reason to do it right now?

Kupp may not return but I have seen similarly mind boggling things happen. Players and coaching staff's don't tank, front offices and ownership do but IMO if Kupp can play, he'll play. The question is if he will be able to and I have no info to help illuminate that answer.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Need a second flex in my SF league (PPR):

Carr @ SEA
White @ CLE
Perkins @ KC
I honestly don't know who Perkins is. QB apparently. Pass.

I think Carr is a safe bet for 250 & 2 TDs.

I like White and love his matchup. I wish I had more confidence that what we saw against Seattle was going to be the norm but, coming off a bye feels just a tad cloudy for me.

Carr>White>>Perking
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Need to start 1 RB and 1 Flex of:
Sanders vs GB
Singletary vs DET
Montgomery vs NYJ
Williams vs BUF
Elliot vs NYG

Really torn on this one. I could argue just about anyone except Elliot. Right now I have Singletary and Montgomery in the lineup. Not crazy about the Williams matchup vs. BUF.
PPR

I like Singletary for reasons I stated above (sorry I need to get out of here, but it's only a few posts up).

Personally I have trouble benching Jamaal but if I was going to do it today Zeke makes a nice second option.

Montgomery with a tough matchup is only a consideration if it's PPR, even then I don't like him much this week at the Jets.

Sanders is similar to Zeke this week to me but I think Zeke has a better chance to find the end zone.

Singletary>Jamaal>Zeke>Sanders>Montgomery
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Do I trust Tyler Boyd? Matchup is great (so was last weeks).
Boyd @TN
Jakobi Meyers @ MN tonight
George Pickens @ Indy (bad matchup)
Garrett Wilson v Chi (waiting to see how qb affects this)
DJ Moore vs Den (ditto on QB)

Leaning Boyd but tempted by Meyers
Knowing if this is PPR really matters in decisions like this. No honest opinion of how to discern between these guys (Sorry but I really have to be out of her 10 minutes ago).

But if I was going to shoot for the moon I probably start Wilson with White at QB against a mediocre defense.

Otherwise Meyers may be your safest/smartest choice.

Boyd didn't do anything without Chase in the lineup, why trust him with Chase possibly back?

Wilson>Jakobi>Pickens>Boyd>Moore
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Fields in a brutal matchup (and likely out anyway) I am now choosing between JimmyG & Ton Brady.

Brady @ CLE seems like the better matchup, but weather for that game looks….unpleasant at best. Thunderstorm expected, with heavy rain & wind.

JimmyG at home vs a banged up NOS, where any dump off to CMC could be a house call.

I have JimmyG in right now. Any reason to start Brady instead? Most have Brady ranked 1-2 spots higher (including FBG) but not sure they’re taking weather into account.

If it clears up / inaccurate forecast, am I making the switch?
 

Pigskin Fanatic

Footballguy
IF we assume Mixon is out this week, Zeke at home v Giants or Perine @ Tennesee? start 2 RB, my other RB will be Pollard. I have all four of mixon, perine, zeke, and pollard.

if mixon was for sure out, or if he was 100% okay, then i'd take mixon or perine over zeke in a heartbeat. but there is uncerntainty there and the dallas game is thursday, so either i go into sunday hoping for clarity on the cinci backfield before sunday or take my chances with the dallas backfield at home in what should be a heavy dose of the run game at home. i can see both zeke and pollard feasting. my only real concern is mixon starting the game not 100% and then perine takes over like last week as well as at least a couple of game last season in similar situation with a mixon injury.

thanks for your input.
PPR?

Yeah, the fact that you have to decide today really muddies this issue.

Bottom line is I think Zeke is a safe start at home, against a very bad Giants rush D.

The good news is, since we're talking about the concussion protocol Mixon either will play or will not. There is no middle ground of "limited participant" or "how hurt is he really?" questions. So if you want to wait, you have the luxury (getting reinjured, or just appearing to, and pulled early is a possibility though, would love to see the data for the new concussion rules of players getting pulled early the week after exiting the concussion protocol. But we won't really have enough info until mid season 2023).

For me, I question if I would start Perine over Zeke in general. He is used in the passing game more (not sure this is PPR) which is good because Tennessee legit has one of the best rush D's in the league (82 ypg #2, 3.9 ypc #3, 2 rush TDs #1). Samaje better catch a bunch of passes because there isn't much hope for the ground game.

For reference NYG 136 ypg #25, 5.3 ypc #31, 9 rush TDs tied #11-#17

Because this is a decision about risk management:

Zeke>Mixon>Samaje
the bolded hit the bullseye. non-ppr, so that would make zeke even more value than samaje now that i think about it. great points.
 

jcab2000

Footballguy
Need to start 1 RB and 1 Flex of:
Sanders vs GB
Singletary vs DET
Montgomery vs NYJ
Williams vs BUF
Elliot vs NYG

Really torn on this one. I could argue just about anyone except Elliot. Right now I have Singletary and Montgomery in the lineup. Not crazy about the Williams matchup vs. BUF.
PPR

I like Singletary for reasons I stated above (sorry I need to get out of here, but it's only a few posts up).

Personally I have trouble benching Jamaal but if I was going to do it today Zeke makes a nice second option.

Montgomery with a tough matchup is only a consideration if it's PPR, even then I don't like him much this week at the Jets.

Sanders is similar to Zeke this week to me but I think Zeke has a better chance to find the end zone.

Singletary>Jamaal>Zeke>Sanders>Montgomery
Quite scared of TD dependent Zeke.

I ended up starting Singletary and benching Jamaal. Pretty much a wash so far, neither doing too much even with yet another TD from Williams. I like Montgomery because of the touches and that the Jets aren't running away with any game. Thanks for the advice. I'm still torn. lol Happy Thanksgiving!
 

Phantom Knight

Footballguy
Treylon Burks vs Christan Watson.
Pick one for Week 12/ROS. PPR. 20 yards = 1 point. 3 points per td. NO POINTS FOR RUSHING/RUSHING TDS. (Did I mention I HATE the scoring format in this league?).

Edit to add: I had Watson. I dropped him for Burks due to my projection that Burks will receive a larger number of targets (and so I believe a higher floor) coupled with my belief that Watson can't (right?) continue to produce tds every week.
Well they're both coming off very good games but this week I imagine Burks has the better matchup by every relevant metric.

RoS is a different story, I guess but you're going to get an extra game out of Burks as Watson has a week 14 bye.

I do like Watson's schedule a little more because Tennessee has a week 17 matchup vs Dallas, which is most Championships week (& week 13 @ PHI). Jax, LAC & Hou are also great.

GB finishes with Chi, LAR, Mia & Min (week 17) so there is no real bad matchup.

It is close and I could go either way but ATM I personally have Watson rostered, ultimately because nothing cures a bad game like a late TD, and Burks is somewhat surprisingly available in my league.

Week 12:
Burks>Watson

RoS:
Watson>Burks
Thanks muchly Chaka. :-)

I was also surprised to fund that Burks was not rostered. And whichever of the two I have on the roster, must start for me this week for sure. So I am glad to see that you agree with me on that (I also rated Burks as a better play this week). Although in a few weeks, the answer might be very obvious, today's crystal ball leaves me with you in saying, "It's close".
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Treylon Burks vs Christan Watson.
Pick one for Week 12/ROS. PPR. 20 yards = 1 point. 3 points per td. NO POINTS FOR RUSHING/RUSHING TDS. (Did I mention I HATE the scoring format in this league?).

Edit to add: I had Watson. I dropped him for Burks due to my projection that Burks will receive a larger number of targets (and so I believe a higher floor) coupled with my belief that Watson can't (right?) continue to produce tds every week.
Well they're both coming off very good games but this week I imagine Burks has the better matchup by every relevant metric.

RoS is a different story, I guess but you're going to get an extra game out of Burks as Watson has a week 14 bye.

I do like Watson's schedule a little more because Tennessee has a week 17 matchup vs Dallas, which is most Championships week (& week 13 @ PHI). Jax, LAC & Hou are also great.

GB finishes with Chi, LAR, Mia & Min (week 17) so there is no real bad matchup.

It is close and I could go either way but ATM I personally have Watson rostered, ultimately because nothing cures a bad game like a late TD, and Burks is somewhat surprisingly available in my league.

Week 12:
Burks>Watson

RoS:
Watson>Burks
Thanks muchly Chaka. :-)

I was also surprised to fund that Burks was not rostered. And whichever of the two I have on the roster, must start for me this week for sure. So I am glad to see that you agree with me on that (I also rated Burks as a better play this week). Although in a few weeks, the answer might be very obvious, today's crystal ball leaves me with you in saying, "It's close".
One other consideration that I read from Florio today is what if the Packers decide to IR Rodgers? He apparently has a broken thumb and if they take another loss or two maybe they shut him down.

IDK but maybe Burks is the better call.
 

gump

Footballguy
1 PT PPR
MCarter or JMeyers or Sutton?

Want to avoid Sutton…Meyers facing a beaten up secondary but on Thurs…Carter with a new QB.
Sat Meyers so down to Carter v Sutton.
Rankings here say Sutton…but just heard Carter had 23 targets in 2 games w White at QB last year. So high catch floor, but does he get any rushing opps?
 

Chaka

Footballguy
1 PT PPR
MCarter or JMeyers or Sutton?

Want to avoid Sutton…Meyers facing a beaten up secondary but on Thurs…Carter with a new QB.
Sat Meyers so down to Carter v Sutton.
Rankings here say Sutton…but just heard Carter had 23 targets in 2 games w White at QB last year. So high catch floor, but does he get any rushing opps?
Michael Carter is the starter and James Robinson isn't exactly impressing anyone so I imagine maybe a dozen carries, under the highly speculative presumption the offense is marginally improved with Wilson out of the lineup.

I also simply don't like Sutton at this point. He has a solid floor but I can't buy into his ceiling.
 

JIslander

Footballguy
In standard, I'm starting Sutton and DPJ 🥱-- would you consider grabbing Mack Holiins, MVS or Skye Moore to start over either of them? Projected to lose and my opponent has D. Adams for what that's worth --
 

Chaka

Footballguy
In standard, I'm starting Sutton and DPJ 🥱-- would you consider grabbing Mack Holiins, MVS or Skye Moore to start over either of them? Projected to lose and my opponent has D. Adams for what that's worth --
They're all spec picks. I could make a B.S. argument for any of them and it would amount to a blind dart throw.

I think Sutton & DPJ have safer floors and similar ceilings than those guys.
 

RenegadeRoy

Footballguy
Half PPR.
Start 1 RB and 1 FLEX from:

James Conner v Chargers
Dameon Pierce @ Miami
Christian Kirk v Baltimore

Little added context: So far I've had Amon Ra and opponent has Mac, Dalvin, and Justin Jefferson.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Half PPR.
Start 1 RB and 1 FLEX from:

James Conner v Chargers
Dameon Pierce @ Miami
Christian Kirk v Baltimore

Little added context: So far I've had Amon Ra and opponent has Mac, Dalvin, and Justin Jefferson.
Interesting call.

The reality is there is an argument for and against each of these guys. And each one could lead this group. For me it comes down to these factors. 1) The Texan are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, the Cardinals & Jaguars score about a TD more per game than them. 2) The Ravens defense is getting healthier but they aren't healthy yet and they have been extremely vulnerable against the pass and very tough against the run. 3) The Chargers may have the worst run defense in the league and, even though I am not a big fan, James Conner gets the lion's share of that backfield and they prefer to run him at the goal line than Murray.

Kirk>Conner>Pierce
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Now that we have more information (Mixon Out), need 1 for flex, 1 ppr:

D Pierce vs Mia
S Perine vs Ten
JuJu vs LAR
The only problem with Perine is the Tennessee run defense is extremely strong, but he does appear to be a strong receiving option out of the backfield so I think he has a decent floor in full PPR leagues. I just wish I was more of a fan of his talent. But the Bengals are a top scoring offense so there should be some opportunities for him to shine. But don't expect 3 TDs and don't surprised if he finishes with around 60 total yards (3 receptions) and no TDs.

Pierce is on one of the worst scoring teams in the league and I have no idea how to handicap Kyle Allen under center. I imagine Pierce will be a big part of the game plan but what happens if they are getting their hats handed to them by the Dolphins offense.

Love JuJu, he should see 8 targets and catch 5-6 of them so he is a very good option. But he isn't really a red zone guy so he will have to make something happen if he wants to get into the end zone. For that reason I probably put him second on this list even if I think he has the best ceiling:floor ratio.

Perine>JuJu>Pierce
 

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