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Week 12 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Chaka

Footballguy
Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray? It's a non-PPR League. 6 point TDs. 1 point every 25 yd pass it. Minus two for interceptions.

I know Tennessee has a week secondary but they sacked burrow quite a bit last year and that o line doesn't look as good. Murray is coming off of an injury and not sure I can trust him versus a decent chargers defense.
Well the real question is what kind of premium does Murray get for rush yards?

Generally speaking you have two solid, safe floor, high ceiling options. Tennessee is a pass funnel defense and without Mixon I question what Perine can get going on the ground against one of the top rush defenses in the league.

Murray's matchup is also very good and he has more ways to generate stats. He also has Marquise Brown back and on the field with Hopkins for the first time this year. On paper that's tantalizing.

I think you can safely flip a coin and be comfortable with wherever it lands. For me it's razor thin but:

Murray>Burrow
 

kface

Footballguy
Standard scoring


which QB:

Lawrence vs Balt
Rodgers vs Eagles
Matt Ryan vs Pitt
Carr vs Sea
Tannehill vs Cin

I think today lawrence = rodgers = carr = tannehill
225 yards and maybe 2 tds

If I had to pick though I would probably carr/rodgers
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray? It's a non-PPR League. 6 point TDs. 1 point every 25 yd pass it. Minus two for interceptions.

I know Tennessee has a week secondary but they sacked burrow quite a bit last year and that o line doesn't look as good. Murray is coming off of an injury and not sure I can trust him versus a decent chargers defense.
I like Burrow.
 

kface

Footballguy
Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray? It's a non-PPR League. 6 point TDs. 1 point every 25 yd pass it. Minus two for interceptions.

I know Tennessee has a week secondary but they sacked burrow quite a bit last year and that o line doesn't look as good. Murray is coming off of an injury and not sure I can trust him versus a decent chargers defense.
Well the real question is what kind of premium does Murray get for rush yards?

Generally speaking you have two solid, safe floor, high ceiling options. Tennessee is a pass funnel defense and without Mixon I question what Perine can get going on the ground against one of the top rush defenses in the league.

Murray's matchup is also very good and he has more ways to generate stats. He also has Marquise Brown back and on the field with Hopkins for the first time this year. On paper that's tantalizing.

I think you can safely flip a coin and be comfortable with wherever it lands. For me it's razor thin but:

Murray>Burrow

Second Murray in this one although it's close
 

Chaka

Footballguy
PPR need 1 TE

Cmet vs Jets (No Fields)

moreau vs Sea

Juwan Johnson vs SF?
Tough calls. Random number generators.

I don't like Kmet against the Jets with Simean at QB.

Moreau has a decent matchup but he still seems like mostly an afterthought in that offense.

For all the love Kmet has been getting for his recent play Juwan has, maybe, been even better. It's a tough matchup but so is Kmet's.

Flip a coin between Kmet & Juwan for me:
Juwan>Kmet>Moreau
 

sho nuff

Footballguy
Fields inactive has me going back and forth on my flex spot. Standard scoring.
David Montgomery @ Jets
Isiah Pacheco vs Rams
Perine @ TN
Needing a big game after both Davis and Meyers (and Maher) put up minimal points in Thursday.

If I had confidence in Siemian, fields being out would be good for Monty getting GL loos…but how often are they getting down there against the Jets? Pacheco the bigger upside?
 

kface

Footballguy
Fields inactive has me going back and forth on my flex spot. Standard scoring.
David Montgomery @ Jets
Isiah Pacheco vs Rams
Perine @ TN
Needing a big game after both Davis and Meyers (and Maher) put up minimal points in Thursday.

If I had confidence in Siemian, fields being out would be good for Monty getting GL loos…but how often are they getting down there against the Jets? Pacheco the bigger upside?

I think it's close between Monty and Perine but TN is a tough D...i still lean monty
 

sho nuff

Footballguy
Fields inactive has me going back and forth on my flex spot. Standard scoring.
David Montgomery @ Jets
Isiah Pacheco vs Rams
Perine @ TN
Needing a big game after both Davis and Meyers (and Maher) put up minimal points in Thursday.

If I had confidence in Siemian, fields being out would be good for Monty getting GL loos…but how often are they getting down there against the Jets? Pacheco the bigger upside?

I think it's close between Monty and Perine but TN is a tough D...i still lean monty
TNs D has shut down RBs…i like his receiving upside but wonder how his usage changes without Mixon. I cant see it being a huge game for him.
Monty seems the safe play. Pacheco is my lean hoping for a home run.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
PPR
Pierce @ Mia
Perine @ Ten
I think I don't trust many Texans this week with the quarterback change. I do like Pierce but in a full PPR Perine is probably the better option As I think he will have multiple opportunities to catch passes out of the backfield against that tough rush defense.

I do think Pierce will have a big workload though, so he's a good option relative to Perine for sure but the Texans QB situation is so questionable I am very unsure what to expect from them.

Perine>Pierce
 
Last edited:

xenon

Footballguy
Thanks again...I appreciate the thoughtfulness and assistance for my considerations

Standard scoring, PPR, bonus at 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
italicized players are who I am leaning toward

RB (x1) to pair w/ Taylor
Edwards (*if active)
Wilson
Mitchell

WR (x2)
Keenan
Jakobi Myers

Dionte Johnson
Nico Collins

Flex (x1)
Any of the above not selected...leaning RB Wilson.........

.................but please reply w/ second FLEX choice as result of Edwards potentially NOT being active in which case I lean towards sliding Wilson into RB2. THANK YOU
RE:
Jeff Wilson? 100% him, even if Gus is active and doesn't have an injury designation. That Houston rush D is terrible and Wilson has come in and immediately supplanted Mostert. He had 4% to 47% snap share against the Bears and followed that with 61% to 28% against the Browns. It's too good of a matchup and opportunity and he provides you the luxury of taking a wait and see approach with Gus. Mitchell isn't even in the conversation. Love what he's doing but you have to rely on blowouts and even then he may only see 9 carries (like last week).

Wilson>Gus>Mitchell

WR:
Definitely Keenan IMO.

Yeah I have no real problem with your choices. Although I still might favor Diontae over Meyers a little bit mostly because he's been the squeaky wheel this week. Both he and Tomlin have commented on it. No guarantee that translates into anything, in fact it is 100% speculation so best to ignore it entirely. Minnesota defense is markedly worse in every relevant passing metric. Meyers & Johnson have very similar target probabilities (I think Diontae's is higher but not sure they are of such quality where that makes a huge difference considering Meyers is catching the ball at a 76% rate compared to 59% for Diontae.

Collins is fine and the matchup seems okay but there is a QB change and that offense runs through Pierce IMO. They're just a bad team and I don't bank on bad teams when I have better, IMO, options.

Keenan>Meyers>Diontae>Nico

Flex:
Follow the practice reports. If Gus is playing I guess I give him the chance because I think he has a higher TD probability than Mitchell or Diontae. But because it's a PPR you may want to consider Diontae if Gus is limited all week. Gus isn't involved in the passing game. Mitchell could be an option too, I guess but it means you are banking on a blowout, which is a distinct possibility with Andy Dalton under center for the Saints.

Gus*>Diontae>Mitchell
THANK YOU!! @Chaka

Revised due to FA pick up....WDIS @ Flex (PPR)

Treylon Burks
Dionte Johnson
Gus Edwards (if active)
Elijah Mitchell.

Kind of got burned on starting Meyers and played Josh Allen, CeeDee, Dalton Schultz and Minn D so far and am down big so not looking good ha ha...

Thanks.
Okay, so it looks like Treylon is the new consideration. I wish we had more to go on with him. He looked great last week but the risk with that offense is always if Henry will run wild and Tannehill only throw 20 passes? I don't know how to handicap this except with the belief that Burks is probably (possibly?) a high upside guy.

It looks like Gus is going to play and the Jags are a decent matchup but, again, he is coming off knee/hammy issues that caused him to miss a time and he is heavily TD dependent and gets zero PPR bump.

Mitchell really isn't a consideration, but maybe he should be. I would like to see one more game to see if we can get a real understanding if Shanahan is committed to this kind of, almost interchangeable, usage next to McCaffrey.

Diontae, IMO is still your best player. Two 5 target games in a row definitely sucks because we all expected a bump with Claypool gone but the bump was actually to the commitment to the running game. Pickett also has 20 pass attempt potential. HOWEVER if you look at the numbers Pickett has 5 (of 6.5) games with 30 or more pass attempts and, including two over 40 and one over 50 (only one game with 20 or less). Tannehill has 2 of 8 games with 30 or more attempts (0 with 40 or more) and two games with 20 attempts (4 between 21-27). Tennessee is a much lower volume passing offense. Tannehill is much more TD efficient than Pickett (by a wide margin) but in a PPR Diontae is a safer bet than Burks ATM (IMO).

Going to do a slight pivot in what was already a very close call:
Diontae>Gus>Burks>Mitchell
Thank you again @Chaka
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Fields inactive has me going back and forth on my flex spot. Standard scoring.
David Montgomery @ Jets
Isiah Pacheco vs Rams
Perine @ TN
Needing a big game after both Davis and Meyers (and Maher) put up minimal points in Thursday.

If I had confidence in Siemian, fields being out would be good for Monty getting GL loos…but how often are they getting down there against the Jets? Pacheco the bigger upside?
With Nate Peterman starting I imagine Montgomery is going to see a ton of work but with zero threat from the passing game (unless this is a Rick & Morty style alternate universe Nate Peterman), I think Monty is in for a long day.

If it were PPR Perine would be a hands down choice for me, but against that rush D in Tennessee I am more concerned. I also think he's a marginal runner, although certainly better than I give him credit for to begin with and crazy 3 receiving TD days seem like a strong exception to reality. But he is a reasonable volume play and his receiving ability probably gives him a safe floor.

Pacheco is probably your home run guy today. Every time he has 10 or more carries he averages well over 5 ypc. He's had 15 touches in the past two games and The Chiefs should crush today so maybe there will be some opportunities for him.

Pacheco>Perine>Montgomery
 

Chaka

Footballguy
12 team PPR, need 1 in desperation.

Drake vs Jax
Edwards vs Jax
Vaughn vs Browns
Probably Edwards for TD upside. I don't know how to handicap Baltimore RB volume with both backs available. So I go with the guy I think could get the goal line touches.

Vaughn has 4 touches on the season, I don't see him being a meaningful presence with White and Gio available today.

Gus>Drake>Vaughn
 

Long Ball Larry

Footballguy
PPR

Jacobs @ SEA with Kyren Williams @ KC as insurance

OR

Antonio Gibson vs Atlanta

I would clearly go with Jacobs normally, but is it the smarter play to lock in Gibson at 1:00?
 

Chaka

Footballguy
PPR

Jacobs @ SEA with Kyren Williams @ KC as insurance

OR

Antonio Gibson vs Atlanta

I would clearly go with Jacobs normally, but is it the smarter play to lock in Gibson at 1:00?
This is really a risk tolerance question. For me:

Jacobs>Gibson

But Gibson is a strong play in PPR so start him with confidence if you prefer.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Hollywood Brown on a pitch count

Vs

Demarcus Robinson

1 PPR

TIA 😎
I like rolling the dice with Marquise personally but can see DeMarcus as potentially a good play as he may see volume with Duvernay maybe out. But I'm always skeptical about 28 year old, 7th season breakouts.

Go with your gut but:
Marquise>Robinson
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Well, Brady with 27 headed to OT, I’m a mortal lock for the win, and now I can watch my Niners without stressing over JimmyG’s stats.

Perfect. :pickle:
 

Long Ball Larry

Footballguy
PPR

Jacobs @ SEA with Kyren Williams @ KC as insurance

OR

Antonio Gibson vs Atlanta

I would clearly go with Jacobs normally, but is it the smarter play to lock in Gibson at 1:00?
This is really a risk tolerance question. For me:

Jacobs>Gibson

But Gibson is a strong play in PPR so start him with confidence if you prefer.
Jacobs may have been the right call…
 

Chaka

Footballguy
He was the stone cold lock RB start of the year and luckily got that TD before getting injured. In DFS, he sunk about 50% of rosters. It's not his fault, that is just how it typically works out when the matchup and game script screams extreme value.
All you can do is take the limited information we have and try to make the best decision possible.

Benching good players on good teams who have great matchups, and the perception of positive game scripts (if you spend enough time in here you will find that I am deeply opposed to making decisions based on that perception) is likely not a recipe for long term success.
 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
He was the stone cold lock RB start of the year and luckily got that TD before getting injured. In DFS, he sunk about 50% of rosters. It's not his fault, that is just how it typically works out when the matchup and game script screams extreme value.
All you can do is take the limited information we have and try to make the best decision possible.

Benching good players on good teams who have great matchups, and the perception of positive game scripts (if you spend enough time in here you will find that I am deeply opposed to making decisions based on that perception) is likely not a recipe for long term success.
100% agree. In DFS its a bit of a different angle as arguments can be made to fade extremely chalky players even in cash games. I had Jacobs in one lineup (the only one that won money) and Wilson in about 30% of the others. In some DK gpp contests, he was close to 70% ownership.
 

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