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Week 12 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Largent72

Footballguy
1/2 PPR. Current lineup in BOLD and italic for question - who do you prefer. Thought laying out the line-up might offer some better floor/ceiling thoughts.

QB: CARR Fields/Tannehill
RB: POLLARD/WALKER
WR: JEFFERSON/HIGGINS
TE: ANDREWS
Need TWO flex of these:
FLEX: Racheed White/Dameon Pierce/AJ Brown/Godwin

As of now, I'm leaning White/AJ Brown IN FLEX - but Pierce vs Miami looks appetizing. Wouldn't play Godwin AND White.

For QB, I'm not sure Carr vs SEA or Tanny vs Cincy.....at this point I'm staying away from Fields vs Jets
 

LionOfGosforth

Footballguy
Given the various changes in practices and status this week, standard need one from the following 3

G.Edwards @ Jags
JSS vs Rams
T.Lockett vs Raiders

Lean Lockett given he tends to score most weeks but JSS tends not to
 

Chaka

Footballguy
1/2 PPR. Current lineup in BOLD and italic for question - who do you prefer. Thought laying out the line-up might offer some better floor/ceiling thoughts.

QB: CARR Fields/Tannehill
RB: POLLARD/WALKER
WR: JEFFERSON/HIGGINS
TE: ANDREWS
Need TWO flex of these:
FLEX: Racheed White/Dameon Pierce/AJ Brown/Godwin

As of now, I'm leaning White/AJ Brown IN FLEX - but Pierce vs Miami looks appetizing. Wouldn't play Godwin AND White.

For QB, I'm not sure Carr vs SEA or Tanny vs Cincy.....at this point I'm staying away from Fields vs Jets
Carr is a great choice IMO. He may not have huge upside but he's been rock steady. He has a great shot at 250 & 2. Tannehill is also good but you never know when the Titans will have a 20 pass attempt game.

AJ Brown is aust start IMO, he was a full participant in practice so I start him.

Personally I start either of your Bucs over any Texan. TB is the worst rush team in the league and they are bottom 5 in scoring but: 1) the Texans score less 2) Miami is a tougher defensive matchup than Cleveland by every relevant metric and 3) At this point I've given up on some players not being what we thought they would be in August (I'm looking at you AJ Dillon and every Bronco) but Brady is one I can't quite write off yet, particularly coming off a good win and a bye.

Between White & Godwin it's up for debate and you should go with your gut but 1) Brady is almost on pace to break the pass attempts and completions record in the NFL and 2) Godwin has been under 8 targets twice in 8 games; once he got injured and once it was six targets. He's had 10 or more targets 5 times in 8 games and 8 targets once. In a 0.5 PPR he is a very safe floor bet. I do question his ceiling for TDs but history shows us it may still be very high.

The ceiling issue is the only reason I consider White... actually, no. Fournette is doubtful this week, that's huge. Despite it being a bad rushing offense, he had 100+ rushing last game (first time for the Bucs since Fournette in week one) and he can catch well. I like White this week, getting 20+ carries gives a lot of hope but he has upside questions too. Particularly with TDs, Brady likes him some pass TDs.

It's a very close decision:

Godwin>White>White
 

chad in Indy

Footballguy
Standard scoring w bonus at 100 yds.
Pick 1 WR and 1 flex
D. Foreman v DN
Pacecho v. LAR
R. White @ Clev
Godwin @ Clev
Olave @ SF

Currently going w White and Godwin. But Foreman is tempting bc they shoould be able to stay in game w DN. If Fournette plays, prob make the switch
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Fields in a brutal matchup (and likely out anyway) I am now choosing between JimmyG & Ton Brady.

Brady @ CLE seems like the better matchup, but weather for that game looks….unpleasant at best. Thunderstorm expected, with heavy rain & wind.

JimmyG at home vs a banged up NOS, where any dump off to CMC could be a house call.

I have JimmyG in right now. Any reason to start Brady instead? Most have Brady ranked 1-2 spots higher (including FBG) but not sure they’re taking weather into account.

If it clears up / inaccurate forecast, am I making the switch?
I’ve switched to Brady @ CLE. His track record coming off a BYE is good, and the weather forecast seems to have lightened up from “biblical thunderstorms” to “showers”. Plus without Fournette this might be another 50+ pass attempt day.

Still not sure which QB to play. JImmy’s floor seems safe, Brady’s ceiling higher. If I win this week I lock up the division (3 to go & I have all the tiebreakers).
🤔
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
Fields in a brutal matchup (and likely out anyway) I am now choosing between JimmyG & Ton Brady.

Brady @ CLE seems like the better matchup, but weather for that game looks….unpleasant at best. Thunderstorm expected, with heavy rain & wind.

JimmyG at home vs a banged up NOS, where any dump off to CMC could be a house call.

I have JimmyG in right now. Any reason to start Brady instead? Most have Brady ranked 1-2 spots higher (including FBG) but not sure they’re taking weather into account.

If it clears up / inaccurate forecast, am I making the switch?
I’ve switched to Brady @ CLE. His track record coming off a BYE is good, and the weather forecast seems to have lightened up from “biblical thunderstorms” to “showers”. Plus without Fournette this might be another 50+ pass attempt day.

Still not sure which QB to play. JImmy’s floor seems safe, Brady’s ceiling higher. If I win this week I lock up the division (3 to go & I have all the tiebreakers).
🤔
He may throw 50 times, but they are all short now. Godwin should be gold in DFS and PPR.
 

Rubi

Footballguy
My remaining quandries for week 12:
FFPC scoring:

Team A: Need a final flex:
C.Patterson @ Wah
A.Robinson @ KC
N.Collins @ Mia
C.Otton @ Cleve

Team B: Opinion on a defense:

San Francisco vs N.O.
Kansa City vs LA Rams

Team C: Need a RB2:

E.Mitchell vs N.O.
C.Patterson @ Wash

Team D: Have J.Jacobs with a questionable tag playing late Sunday. Only have two options to plug in if he's out. Opinion?

M.Hollins @ Sea
R.Cobb @ Phi(Sun. Night)
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Trevor vs Baltimore or Jacobi vs Tampa?
I lean Trevor Lawrence here. Tampa Bay isn't a great team (yet) but they have been very solid against the pass and they are a slightly better scoring defense.

Also, I don't like predicting game script but Baltimore does score about a TD/game more than Tampa Bay.

It is close but I lean:
Lawrence>Brisett
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Given the various changes in practices and status this week, standard need one from the following 3

G.Edwards @ Jags
JSS vs Rams
T.Lockett vs Raiders

Lean Lockett given he tends to score most weeks but JSS tends not to
I'm not rolling Gus coming off a hammy bad enough to cause him to miss games. He can score in bunches, I think, but even when completely that Baltimore RB corps is simply fighting for scraps behind Lamar Jackson. Maybe Lamar's hip changes that calculus, but if it did Kenyan Drake would have had more than 10 carries against Carolina.

Love JSS in a PPR, in a standard league not near as much. He should get 8 targets and have a reasonable shot at 80 or so yards but in 9 games he has 11 targets between 10-20 yards from the end zone and only one target inside the 10. Five of his RZ targets came in one game and he has four games with zero RZ targets. By comparison Kelce has 24 RZ targets with 12 inside the 10 and zero games without at least one RZ target. If JuJu is going to score he is going to have to make something happen on his own (his two TDs this year are from 40+ yards).

Lockett only has 6 RZ targets this year, but he also has some of the best hands in the game (76% catch rate to 68% for JuJu), the most accurate QB in the league (still shocking to think about but after 10 games I choose to accept it as fact) and that offense knows how to design timely big gainers as they cross the 50 yard line. He has a TD in four of his last six games and is facing one of the worst defenses in all of football by every relevant metric. I do worry about his floor but I think he is the play here.

Lockett>JuJu>Gus
 

Chaka

Footballguy
TJ Lockett or Chase (if he plays)?

standard scoring, non-ppr league
This is a choice about risk aversion. I have no idea how Chase's hip will hold up and the nature of that injury has me very concerned.

Since you're non-PPR I think Lockett is an excellent option against a terrible Raiders pass defense. I just wrote a little bit about Lockett:
Lockett only has 6 RZ targets this year, but he also has some of the best hands in the game (76% catch rate to 68% for JuJu), the most accurate QB in the league (still shocking to think about but after 10 games I choose to accept it as fact) and that offense knows how to design timely big gainers as they cross the 50 yard line. He has a TD in four of his last six games and is facing one of the worst defenses in all of football by every relevant metric.


Lockett>Chase
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Standard scoring w bonus at 100 yds.
Pick 1 WR and 1 flex
D. Foreman v DN
Pacecho v. LAR
R. White @ Clev
Godwin @ Clev
Olave @ SF

Currently going w White and Godwin. But Foreman is tempting bc they shoould be able to stay in game w DN. If Fournette plays, prob make the switch
I won't talk you out of White & Godwin but, it does require continuing faith that the Bucs can finally turn around the offense. I do believe that can happen but, after 10 games it gets more difficult.

I love White's matchup here, he seems like a triple threat and it really looks like Fournette is out so he seems like a strong play. I don't think I would play Foreman or Pacheco over him this week with Fournette likely out.

I also love Godwin but less so in a standard format. However since you need one WR and Olave has a roadie in San Francisco I don't think you have an option. Godwin should see a bunch of targets and is used inside the 10 enough to be hopeful for a score.

White>Godwin>Pacheco>Foreman>Olave
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Fields in a brutal matchup (and likely out anyway) I am now choosing between JimmyG & Ton Brady.

Brady @ CLE seems like the better matchup, but weather for that game looks….unpleasant at best. Thunderstorm expected, with heavy rain & wind.

JimmyG at home vs a banged up NOS, where any dump off to CMC could be a house call.

I have JimmyG in right now. Any reason to start Brady instead? Most have Brady ranked 1-2 spots higher (including FBG) but not sure they’re taking weather into account.

If it clears up / inaccurate forecast, am I making the switch?
I’ve switched to Brady @ CLE. His track record coming off a BYE is good, and the weather forecast seems to have lightened up from “biblical thunderstorms” to “showers”. Plus without Fournette this might be another 50+ pass attempt day.

Still not sure which QB to play. JImmy’s floor seems safe, Brady’s ceiling higher. If I win this week I lock up the division (3 to go & I have all the tiebreakers).
🤔
Brady v Garoppolo is an argument for volume v efficiency. Brady is almost on pace to set records for attempts and completions, in this case he also has a fine matchup and plenty of offensive talent around him.

Garoppolo also has great supporting talent but if the Niners can run 40+ times they will run 40+ times.

Brady>Garoppolo
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Team A: Need a final flex:
C.Patterson @ Wah
A.Robinson @ KC
N.Collins @ Mia
C.Otton @ Cleve
It's gotta be Patterson, right?

I mean I see the argument for Collins, but that is based on game scripts and with Kyle Allen at QB I have no idea what to expect. Collins could catch 3 TDs, or he could get targeted twice for 1-6-0.

Ditto for A.Robinson. I get the game script argument but, and I know this is obvious but I am not sure people really consider it enough, losing teams score less points. The Rams & Texans are already bottom 4 scoring offenses, you want to bank on one of, maybe, two total TDs going to your guy? I understand that "garbage time" can lead to something but I wonder if there is really much data to support this, particularly when it relates to terrible offenses on the road. And if there is a garbage time, it probably means your guy didn't do much for the first 3 1/2 quarters of the game.

Not sure what to think about Otton but aren't we expecting Brate back?

Patterson, unfortunately seems to have seen a significant decrease in volume and I don't like that he is the teams #1 kick returner (although if your league awards those points to the player then that is a bonus). But he still finds the end zone with surprising regularity. In this situation I don't see how he isn't your best dart throw.

Patterson>Collins>Robinson>Otton
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Team B: Opinion on a defense:

San Francisco vs N.O.
Kansa City vs LA Rams
Random number generators. Flip a coin.

Personally I view the Niners as maybe the top real world defensive unit in the league and I have trouble betting against that, even with a tantalizing inexperienced QB playing in KC.

However, that being said if you think you need the upside play then I absolutely would roll with the Chiefs. The Rams are already a bottom 4 scoring offense and they don't have their two best players. The Rams could easily be goaded into multiple TOs. Even if not they probably have a similar floor to the Niners because all defenses have similar floors, they are simply too difficult to predict. So don't spend too much time on it.

SF>KC
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Team C: Need a RB2:

E.Mitchell vs N.O.
C.Patterson @ Wash
I do like what I see from Mitchell so far, a lot actually. He may have standalone value but on limited touches I think that value is TD dependent. He got 4 opportunities inside the 10 against the Chargers so maybe he has some upside. but I am not 100% convinced he doesn't cede important red zone opportunities to McCaffrey & Deebo. One more game like the last two though and maybe it's time to view him as a consistent flex.

Patterson, unfortunately seems to have seen a significant decrease in volume and I don't like that he is the teams #1 kick returner (although if your league awards those points to the player then that is a bonus). But he still finds the end zone with surprising regularity. In this situation I don't see how he isn't your best dart throw.
I still think Patterson has more TD upside in this situation and that is probably the difference in this decision.

Patterson>Mitchell
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Team D: Have J.Jacobs with a questionable tag playing late Sunday. Only have two options to plug in if he's out. Opinion?

M.Hollins @ Sea
R.Cobb @ Phi(Sun. Night)
I think if Jacobs is a late scrap you might as well take a shot on Hollins, because he is already seeing good volume, it's a better matchup and I think he has a better shot at a TD sans Jacobs (or go nuts and grab Zamir White and pray).

Cobb looks like he will see maybe 6-8 high % targets so he does have a safer floor IMO. But if I am going to go nuts on a decision, I kinda like to pivot to the higher risk:reward play.

Hollins>Cobb
 

The Dude

Footballguy
Flex
half pt

Lazard
Burks
Edwards
Dortch

Eagles are allowing less than a passing td per game. I am off to a great start and looking for solid points and less gamble
 
Last edited:

Judge Smails

Footballguy
Last decision I have is Pickens or Lazard. Non PPR. I’ve had Pickens in there all week because he has a better matchup IMO and has higher upside. He could have easily gone for 150 and 3 last week. I don’t see that kind of upside for Lazard against the Eagles. Maybe Watson can take some attention to free things up but I’m not feeling it. Thoughts?
 

Dog

Footballguy
1 PPR, 1/10 rush and 1/20 receive

Need 2 of

Jeff Wilson Jr. v HOU
Mike Evans @CLE
Keenan Allen @Ari

I think Wilson will do well so it's really Evans vs. Allen. Also starting Brady at QB and will be an underdog. I'd probably lean towards Allen (very slightly) but this might be a time to go for the QB-WR combo and hope for a big game. Thanks.
 

papacapps

Footballguy
Full PPR, WR2 options include:

Hollywood Brown vs LAC
B Cooks @ MIA
D Peoples-Jones @ TB

Leaning Brown currently...Barkley and the Dallas DEF underperformed a bit on Thanksgiving, so I need a little upside.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Flex
half pt

Lazard
Burks
Edwards
Dortch

Eagles are allowing less than a passing td per game. I am off to a great start and looking for solid points and less gamble
Do you mean Gus Edwards? I assume so but no matchup or even first initial makes it unclear.

Either way Lazard is in line for the most consistent targets count.

Dortch is hurting and Marquise Brown is back, without an injury designation, IIRC, although I have also heard heay be in a snap counts. Either way too much confusion there for Dortch.

Gus is not involved in the passing game, is coming off a hammy and is always pretty TD dependent. Denver is still a strong defense.

Lazard has a tough matchup but his targets share seems very secure so I think you can reasonably count on 8 or so. He's your safe floor option. He is also a big red zone target for Rodgers.

Burks is the wild card, I think he could be in line for good utilization and seems capable of housing one at a t time. But, with the Titans I always have concern it will be a 24 past attempt game. So his targets are less locked in. Good upside play though.

Lazard>Burks>Gus>Dortch
 

themeistersinger

Footballguy
Full PPR, need a flex (this is a Flex because I started Pollard and Stevenson in my 2 RB slots on Thursday, following the rule to never play an RB in the Flex)

Nick Chubb home vs Buccaneers
Rachaad White at Browns (assuming that Fournette is Out)

Weather - 51F, Rain, 11 mph winds
Played on Grass

In my league:
Browns are #30 versus RB at 30.3 ppg
Buccs are #3 versus RB at 17.7 ppg

Buccs are favored by 3, O/U is 42

I'm nervous about Chubb against that Buccs defense. FBG rankers currently all have Chubb ranked ahead of White. On Fantasy Pros it's 2/3 for Chubb and 1/3 for White.

So the consensus is definitely in the Chubb direction. Chubb probably has a safer floor, White a higher ceiling if the Tampa Bay offense starts to click better following the Bye.
 

xenon

Footballguy
Thanks again...I appreciate the thoughtfulness and assistance for my considerations

Standard scoring, PPR, bonus at 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
italicized players are who I am leaning toward

RB (x1) to pair w/ Taylor
Edwards (*if active)
Wilson
Mitchell

WR (x2)
Keenan
Jakobi Myers

Dionte Johnson
Nico Collins

Flex (x1)
Any of the above not selected...leaning RB Wilson.........

.................but please reply w/ second FLEX choice as result of Edwards potentially NOT being active in which case I lean towards sliding Wilson into RB2. THANK YOU
RE:
Jeff Wilson? 100% him, even if Gus is active and doesn't have an injury designation. That Houston rush D is terrible and Wilson has come in and immediately supplanted Mostert. He had 4% to 47% snap share against the Bears and followed that with 61% to 28% against the Browns. It's too good of a matchup and opportunity and he provides you the luxury of taking a wait and see approach with Gus. Mitchell isn't even in the conversation. Love what he's doing but you have to rely on blowouts and even then he may only see 9 carries (like last week).

Wilson>Gus>Mitchell

WR:
Definitely Keenan IMO.

Yeah I have no real problem with your choices. Although I still might favor Diontae over Meyers a little bit mostly because he's been the squeaky wheel this week. Both he and Tomlin have commented on it. No guarantee that translates into anything, in fact it is 100% speculation so best to ignore it entirely. Minnesota defense is markedly worse in every relevant passing metric. Meyers & Johnson have very similar target probabilities (I think Diontae's is higher but not sure they are of such quality where that makes a huge difference considering Meyers is catching the ball at a 76% rate compared to 59% for Diontae.

Collins is fine and the matchup seems okay but there is a QB change and that offense runs through Pierce IMO. They're just a bad team and I don't bank on bad teams when I have better, IMO, options.

Keenan>Meyers>Diontae>Nico

Flex:
Follow the practice reports. If Gus is playing I guess I give him the chance because I think he has a higher TD probability than Mitchell or Diontae. But because it's a PPR you may want to consider Diontae if Gus is limited all week. Gus isn't involved in the passing game. Mitchell could be an option too, I guess but it means you are banking on a blowout, which is a distinct possibility with Andy Dalton under center for the Saints.

Gus*>Diontae>Mitchell
THANK YOU!! @Chaka

Revised due to FA pick up....WDIS @ Flex (PPR)

Treylon Burks
Dionte Johnson
Gus Edwards (if active)
Elijah Mitchell.

Kind of got burned on starting Meyers and played Josh Allen, CeeDee, Dalton Schultz and Minn D so far and am down big so not looking good ha ha...

Thanks.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I’ve waffled again on JimmyG vs Brady. I may swap again before kickoff. I don’t think it’ll matter as I’m heavily favored, but points matter. Man this one’s frustrating.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Last decision I have is Pickens or Lazard. Non PPR. I’ve had Pickens in there all week because he has a better matchup IMO and has higher upside. He could have easily gone for 150 and 3 last week. I don’t see that kind of upside for Lazard against the Eagles. Maybe Watson can take some attention to free things up but I’m not feeling it. Thoughts?
The problem with Pickens is the potential for a low volume passing day. If the run game gets going Tomlin will go to it 40+ times.

Pickens may have almost had 3 TDs last week but, in reality he had only 6 targets. And he only had 4 the week before. So you probably have to hope for a high efficiency day. It should also be noted that Pickett has 3 TD passes in 6 1/2 games.

Now Phi only allows 178 pass yards and 18.3 PPG but Indy only allows 194 & 20, it's not a huge difference but Phi is better. In every other relevant metric Phi is also notably better than Indy (comp %, y/a, sacks, TDs allowed, QB rating).

What Lazard does have going for him is a pretty locked in target share. He should see at least 8 targets and he gets RedZone looks where he has been very efficient (TD in 5 of 9 games).

An argument for Pickens is based on perceived ability not actual performance.

If your gut says start him then start him, he has a much better matchup.

Lazard>Pickens
 

Santino

Footballguy
0.5 PPR need 1 of
Higbee @KC
Conklin vs CHI
Everett @ Ari

1 WR also starrting Evans
Lockett vs LV
Metcalf vs Lv
D. Smith vs GB

Thanks!
 

Chaka

Footballguy
1 PPR, 1/10 rush and 1/20 receive

Need 2 of

Jeff Wilson Jr. v HOU
Mike Evans @CLE
Keenan Allen @Ari

I think Wilson will do well so it's really Evans vs. Allen. Also starting Brady at QB and will be an underdog. I'd probably lean towards Allen (very slightly) but this might be a time to go for the QB-WR combo and hope for a big game. Thanks.
I love Wilson this week & RoS. Start him against that terrible Houston rush defense.

Evans v Allen is interesting, in full PPR I don't think you can go wrong as they both have safe target floors and double digit upside. Brady is close to record pace for attempts & completions but his TDs are way down. Arizona defense gives up about 30 more yards/game and 7 more TD receptions on the season (one more game).

Yeah, it's really a coin toss. I think I lean Allen because it's a home game and the opposing offense should be better with Marquise Brown and Hopkins on the field together for the first time and Murray back under center.

But, still its super close and both are great options (there is a strong argument to start either over Wilson, but I wouldn't) so go with your gut.
Allen>Evans
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Full PPR, WR2 options include:

Hollywood Brown vs LAC
B Cooks @ MIA
D Peoples-Jones @ TB

Leaning Brown currently...Barkley and the Dallas DEF underperformed a bit on Thanksgiving, so I need a little upside.
I am very tempted by Brown myself. I definitely like him more than Cooks with a new QB, even in what may be a good matchup if the Dolphins blow the Texans out. He may go 10-150-2 for all I know but I'm staying away from most Texans other than Pierce this week.

DPJ has been rock steady and found the end zone for the first time. Since week four his outputs have been:
5-71-0
4-50-0
4-74-0
6-71-0
4-81-0
5-99-0
5-61-1
The TD ouput is disappointing but dude is a very safe a bet for 6 targets and 5-72

Brown has a higher ceiling for sure and apparently has no injury designation (also Greg Dortch is out) but he is coming back from a multi-week foot injury, so it's a huge question mark. Personally I think it depends on your needs this week and aversion to risk.

Marquise>DPJ>Cooks
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Hollywood Brown or Peoples-Jones 1/2 PPR
DPJ has been rock steady and found the end zone for the first time. Since week four his outputs have been:
5-71-0
4-50-0
4-74-0
6-71-0
4-81-0
5-99-0
5-61-1
The TD ouput is disappointing but dude is a very safe a bet for 6 targets and 5-72

Brown has a higher ceiling for sure and apparently has no injury designation (also Greg Dortch is out) but he is coming back from a multi-week foot injury, so it's a huge question mark. Personally I think it depends on your needs this week and aversion to risk.

Marquise>DPJ
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Full PPR, need a flex (this is a Flex because I started Pollard and Stevenson in my 2 RB slots on Thursday, following the rule to never play an RB in the Flex)

Nick Chubb home vs Buccaneers
Rachaad White at Browns (assuming that Fournette is Out)

Weather - 51F, Rain, 11 mph winds
Played on Grass

In my league:
Browns are #30 versus RB at 30.3 ppg
Buccs are #3 versus RB at 17.7 ppg

Buccs are favored by 3, O/U is 42

I'm nervous about Chubb against that Buccs defense. FBG rankers currently all have Chubb ranked ahead of White. On Fantasy Pros it's 2/3 for Chubb and 1/3 for White.

So the consensus is definitely in the Chubb direction. Chubb probably has a safer floor, White a higher ceiling if the Tampa Bay offense starts to click better following the Bye.
I appreciate the logic but to me this is classic overthinking. Chubb is a top 5 back on the season, White is a spec play on a team with a QB who is on near record pace for pass attempts and completions. White could absolutely outperform Chubb this week and if you love that prospect that much then go for it.

Personally, I don't bench Chubb for anyone not named McCaffrey (or similar).

Chubb>White
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Thanks again...I appreciate the thoughtfulness and assistance for my considerations

Standard scoring, PPR, bonus at 100 yds rushing or receiving (not combined)
italicized players are who I am leaning toward

RB (x1) to pair w/ Taylor
Edwards (*if active)
Wilson
Mitchell

WR (x2)
Keenan
Jakobi Myers

Dionte Johnson
Nico Collins

Flex (x1)
Any of the above not selected...leaning RB Wilson.........

.................but please reply w/ second FLEX choice as result of Edwards potentially NOT being active in which case I lean towards sliding Wilson into RB2. THANK YOU
RE:
Jeff Wilson? 100% him, even if Gus is active and doesn't have an injury designation. That Houston rush D is terrible and Wilson has come in and immediately supplanted Mostert. He had 4% to 47% snap share against the Bears and followed that with 61% to 28% against the Browns. It's too good of a matchup and opportunity and he provides you the luxury of taking a wait and see approach with Gus. Mitchell isn't even in the conversation. Love what he's doing but you have to rely on blowouts and even then he may only see 9 carries (like last week).

Wilson>Gus>Mitchell

WR:
Definitely Keenan IMO.

Yeah I have no real problem with your choices. Although I still might favor Diontae over Meyers a little bit mostly because he's been the squeaky wheel this week. Both he and Tomlin have commented on it. No guarantee that translates into anything, in fact it is 100% speculation so best to ignore it entirely. Minnesota defense is markedly worse in every relevant passing metric. Meyers & Johnson have very similar target probabilities (I think Diontae's is higher but not sure they are of such quality where that makes a huge difference considering Meyers is catching the ball at a 76% rate compared to 59% for Diontae.

Collins is fine and the matchup seems okay but there is a QB change and that offense runs through Pierce IMO. They're just a bad team and I don't bank on bad teams when I have better, IMO, options.

Keenan>Meyers>Diontae>Nico

Flex:
Follow the practice reports. If Gus is playing I guess I give him the chance because I think he has a higher TD probability than Mitchell or Diontae. But because it's a PPR you may want to consider Diontae if Gus is limited all week. Gus isn't involved in the passing game. Mitchell could be an option too, I guess but it means you are banking on a blowout, which is a distinct possibility with Andy Dalton under center for the Saints.

Gus*>Diontae>Mitchell
THANK YOU!! @Chaka

Revised due to FA pick up....WDIS @ Flex (PPR)

Treylon Burks
Dionte Johnson
Gus Edwards (if active)
Elijah Mitchell.

Kind of got burned on starting Meyers and played Josh Allen, CeeDee, Dalton Schultz and Minn D so far and am down big so not looking good ha ha...

Thanks.
Okay, so it looks like Treylon is the new consideration. I wish we had more to go on with him. He looked great last week but the risk with that offense is always if Henry will run wild and Tannehill only throw 20 passes? I don't know how to handicap this except with the belief that Burks is probably (possibly?) a high upside guy.

It looks like Gus is going to play and the Jags are a decent matchup but, again, he is coming off knee/hammy issues that caused him to miss a time and he is heavily TD dependent and gets zero PPR bump.

Mitchell really isn't a consideration, but maybe he should be. I would like to see one more game to see if we can get a real understanding if Shanahan is committed to this kind of, almost interchangeable, usage next to McCaffrey.

Diontae, IMO is still your best player. Two 5 target games in a row definitely sucks because we all expected a bump with Claypool gone but the bump was actually to the commitment to the running game. Pickett also has 20 pass attempt potential. HOWEVER if you look at the numbers Pickett has 5 (of 6.5) games with 30 or more pass attempts and, including two over 40 and one over 50 (only one game with 20 or less). Tannehill has 2 of 8 games with 30 or more attempts (0 with 40 or more) and two games with 20 attempts (4 between 21-27). Tennessee is a much lower volume passing offense. Tannehill is much more TD efficient than Pickett (by a wide margin) but in a PPR Diontae is a safer bet than Burks ATM (IMO).

Going to do a slight pivot in what was already a very close call:
Diontae>Gus>Burks>Mitchell
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I’ve waffled again on JimmyG vs Brady. I may swap again before kickoff. I don’t think it’ll matter as I’m heavily favored, but points matter. Man this one’s frustrating.
Not so bad. Efficiency v upside. Looks like rain most of the game in Cleveland but the wind isn't supposed to be bad.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Flex
half pt

Lazard
Burks
Edwards
Dortch

Eagles are allowing less than a passing td per game. I am off to a great start and looking for solid points and less gamble

Lazard>Burks>Gus>Dortch

Your advice to me has been on the money - but with bad weather in philly going to try Burks
Yeah, handicapping weather is tough for sure. Although I might go with Gus now that it looks like he is officially active (Dortch out BTW). I do like Burks upside though, just worry about volume.

Good luck.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Evans, Higgins, Burks or Lockett, 1 PPR, need 1

Already Playing Diggs and De Hopkins
I think Higgins with Chase and Mixon likely out, no? Tennessee is a pass funnel defense and I don't think much of Perine as a runner.

Evans is a fine choice too but there is some rain in Cleveland and that defense is very vulnerable to the run. But Brady is on near record pace for attempts and completions so Evans is a fine option is a PPR.

Lockett has, by far the best matchup, but in a PPR I handicap him just a little as the volume may not match. But he definitely has the highest TD probability IMO.

Higgins>Lockett>Evans>Burks
 

Chaka

Footballguy
0.5 PPR need 1 of
Higbee @KC
Conklin vs CHI
Everett @ Ari

1 WR also starrting Evans
Lockett vs LV
Metcalf vs Lv
D. Smith vs GB

Thanks!
No real idea about the TE but I guess Higbee under the presumption the green QB will need a safety valve. But really, no idea.

Not sure what to think about Conklin with White under center, certainly a better passing team but is Conklin the beneficiary or is it Wilson & Moore? Personally I lean the latter.

Everett is a fine option too but with Allen, Ekeler & Palmer all there we are never sure about Everett's target share.

Higbee>Everett>Conklin

Flip a coin between the Seahawk receivers IMO. That matchup is too tasty and I really can't decide which one I like more.

Lockett>Metcalf>>Davonta
 

BroncoFreak_2K3

sucker for Orange
Evans, Higgins, Burks or Lockett, 1 PPR, need 1

Already Playing Diggs and De Hopkins
I think Higgins with Chase and Mixon likely out, no? Tennessee is a pass funnel defense and I don't think much of Perine as a runner.

Evans is a fine choice too but there is some rain in Cleveland and that defense is very vulnerable to the run. But Brady is on near record pace for attempts and completions so Evans is a fine option is a PPR.

Lockett has, by far the best matchup, but in a PPR I handicap him just a little as the volume may not match. But he definitely has the highest TD probability IMO.

Higgins>Lockett>Evans>Burks
That's the way I'm leaning and FBGs tends to agree by a small margin. I'm just concerned with Chase AND Mixon out, TEN will key on Tee more and he'll see more double teams...which, he has a lot so far and it hasn't stopped him while Chase has been out. I do really like Lockett's matchup a lot...tough choice...thanks for the help!!!
 

Peak

Footballguy
Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray? It's a non-PPR League. 6 point TDs. 1 point every 25 yd pass it. Minus two for interceptions.

I know Tennessee has a week secondary but they sacked burrow quite a bit last year and that o line doesn't look as good. Murray is coming off of an injury and not sure I can trust him versus a decent chargers defense.
 

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