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Week 12 Suicide Pick Strategy (1 Viewer)

Wolfpacker

Footballguy
I haven't seen this weekly topic started yet. Did I miss it or did the usual posters go with Philly last week and don't want to think about suicide pools any longer?

Anyway, looks like several options for those of us remaining. Three teams are near double-digit favorites - Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Denver. This would be a good week to get Denver under your belt, but I just don't trust them or division rivalry games. Dallas looks to have an even easier game at home next week against Seattle if you want to (gasp!) save them. So, I'm considering the Steelers at home vs. a Bengals team that played 5 quarters only 4 days earlier.

What are your thoughts on this week?

 
Well I'm the one who usually starts it, but fell victim to the piece of #### that is Donovan Mcnabb. Good luck to those still in it. Sucks because I really had an advantage going into the next couple weeks with Dallas still at my disposal.

 
Sorry, JSH. Maybe if McNabb knew the game was ending after the overtime period, he would have tried harder to score.

 
It's never a bad idea to bet against Detroit. I'd consider using TB if they are still at your disposal.
Actually this game is the most likely remaining game that Detroit could win. I would look for better options than TB. Detroit is pissed about losing and they have not given up. They kept it close @ CAR last week for instance, so I would not be surprised at all if Detroit won this week at home.
 
On the surface, this week has many large favorites such as Denver vs. Oakland, Washington @ Seattle, Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati, and Dallas vs. San Fran. This week, more than others, worries me for some reason. First I tend not to pick interdivision games as there's more to play for and weird things sometimes happen. Add to that Denver and Pittsburgh have injury or other concerns (Denv. with their RB situation as well as often-times poor defense and Pittsburgh with FWP and Big Ben hurting some and an O-line that has struggled and that worries me) and even though they play teams that don't have much going for them, I'm a little worried.

Dallas has Romo back, but I'm still not sure about his finger, and San Fran has had two solid games and nearly knocked off Arizona. The secondary at Dallas is still suspect, so again, staying away.

Washington at Seattle: Seattle has Hasslebeck back, and while he may take some time to regain continuity with his receivers it could happen. Add to that Quest field with the 12th man and the fact that Seattle knows Zorn they could take away some of what Washington tries on offense.

Others I'm at least considering:

Chicago at St. Louis: Chicago got creamed in Green Bay, but StL is bad. StL did, however, beat Dallas w/out Romo and Washington on the road and "only" lost to NE by a TD at Foxborough. StL is another loud dome, no Steven Jackson. Chicago hasn't been great, but have played good teams tight winning some and losing some. If Lovie Smith and the players play mad (after the loss, someone punched a hole in GB's lockerroom) they roll StL.

Green Bay at New Orleans: I know taking a road dog seems like a dumb idea, but Green Bay has a strong offense, NO has a weak defense and NO's strong passing offense plays into Green Bay's strong passing defense's hand. I think GB has righted the ship and is going to start rolling now that Rodgers is practicing all week. The fact that NO has distractions this week with the Starcaps thing is also something to take into account. The biggest worry to me in this one is that NO's fans are going to be fired up since the last time they played at home was October 12 (40+ days without a game).

 
I haven't seen this weekly topic started yet. Did I miss it or did the usual posters go with Philly last week and don't want to think about suicide pools any longer?Anyway, looks like several options for those of us remaining. Three teams are near double-digit favorites - Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Denver. This would be a good week to get Denver under your belt, but I just don't trust them or division rivalry games. Dallas looks to have an even easier game at home next week against Seattle if you want to (gasp!) save them. So, I'm considering the Steelers at home vs. a Bengals team that played 5 quarters only 4 days earlier.What are your thoughts on this week?
Agree with you on the Steelers -- have had it circled on the schedule for several weeks, and nothing has happened to dissuade me. Steelers are slowly getting healthier, and should be riding an emotional high after the finish to the Chargers contest -- the kind of game that triggers winning streaks. I can't see Ryan Fitzpatrick unlocking the Steelers defense -- especially on four days' rest. On the flip side, I expect the Steelers ground game to start bowling over the tired Cincy defense by late in the second quarter. Cincy might scare early on, but will fade. Denver and Dallas are fine choices as well, but I'll be taking Pit.
 
This week is very interesting. You have a four favorites of 9 or more, one favorite of 5 (Tennessee), and all the rest are 3.5 or less. I actually went through and picked all of the games straight up before I saw the the spreads. I had five dogs (Carolina, Houston, New England, Indy, and KC).

If I had them at my disposal this week, I would take the Steelers (homer alert) without a second thought. But I used them a few weeks ago when they played Cincy. I have also used TB, but as someone said, I think they could somehow lose this week. I absolutely will not touch Denver. Last year, I was one of 49 remaining entries in a $25K pool that had 12,000 entries - and got knocked out by picking Denver over Oakland. I expect Denver to win, but the Raiders have been hanging tough and Denver is too unpredictable.

Right now, my money is going to be on either Dallas or Chicago. I like that Dallas is at home, but I think Chicago will bounce back big this week against the pathetic Rams.

 
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Was planning to use Pittsburgh this week, but the Thursday game scares me -- too unpredictable. Denver seems to be playing better than Pittsburgh right now, anyway, and Oakland may be the only team in the league who won't be able to take advantage of the Bronco's awful pass D.

 
p.s. For anyone thinking about Tampa, do you realize that Tampa hasn't won a single road game this year in regulation?

1 Sep 07 TB 20 @ NO 24

3 Sep 21 TB 27 @ CHI 24 (OT)

5 Oct 05 TB 13 @ DEN 16

8 Oct 26 TB 9 @ DAL 13 (Dallas's only win w/o Romo a week after they were slaughted by the 2-9 Rams)

9 Nov 02 TB 30 @ KC 27 (OT)

The only impressive road game they've played was the one at Chicago, and that one was won on Griese's arm.

 
p.s. For anyone thinking about Tampa, do you realize that Tampa hasn't won a single road game this year in regulation?

1 Sep 07 TB 20 @ NO 24

3 Sep 21 TB 27 @ CHI 24 (OT)

5 Oct 05 TB 13 @ DEN 16

8 Oct 26 TB 9 @ DAL 13 (Dallas's only win w/o Romo a week after they were slaughted by the 2-9 Rams)

9 Nov 02 TB 30 @ KC 27 (OT)

The only impressive road game they've played was the one at Chicago, and that one was won on Griese's arm.
I forget...how many HOME games has DET won?ae.t.a. It looks on paper as if Detroit wins nothing this year. If TB is the cupcake of your remaining schedule and your owen-whatever.... bu bye! OTO anything can happen. They did show spunk for at least a few minutes of the beginning of the last game and, well, the ball is not round and all... As they say, "That's why we play them."

 
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I'm another one who wouldn't touch Denver. Yes, Shanny owns Al, but they have been so inconsistent with injuries that I have no faith in this team.

My choice is Pit, even though it's a division game.

Dallas is right behind, but Singletary's thrown a big wildcard on the Niners. They have been a crappy road team, but who knows how they'll respond this week.

Was, Tampa, and Chicago are likely winners, but they are all on the road, which I won't pick unless forced into it.

Absolute wildcard if I had used all the above would be Jax at home against a Minny team playing on their second consecutive Florida road trip.

 
USED: PHI BUF NYG SD DAL MIN PIT NYJ TB ARI SF

I'm going with WAS this week. Seattle haven't been able to get out of their own way this season, and WAS will probably be pretty motivated to win this week.

I'm fearful of going with DEN at all this season, and this week they face division rival? No thanks.

Wish I hadn't used DAL yet...

 
I'm taking Pittsburgh. If they weren't available I'd go with Dallas. If I'd used both, I'd be very nervous. Would probably go with Denver but the Broncos porous run D matches up poorly with the only "strength" that Oak has. I agree with those who think Det might beat TB...if you think those guys are going to lay down in what might be their last chance to avoid an 0-16 season, then you don't follow pro football very closely.

 
Tough week this week where I'm sitting. Used Dallas, TB and Pitt.... leaning towards Chicago. Difference is no SJax again. Road team, but the wheels have come off the Rams again. Denver, forget it....McFadden is coming around and I can only see him ripping the Bronco's this week. How about the Titans at home vs the Jets? Another play if you have the nuts is KC at home against the Bills. The Bills are free falling right now. Historically they play terrible in K.C., and Thigpen and LJ will do some damage against a team that mentally is not there right now.

 
Pitt game time weather looks to be quite windy, cold as hell and maybe some flakes.. Ocho out - could be a running/ turnover game.

 
I just can't see Cincy coming into Pittsburgh without Palmer and CJ and beating the Steelers on national television.

 
if i had tampa left (which i don't) i would avoid the game against detroit. the rams are playing far worse football right now than the lions. that's way i'm taking chicago over the rams for a bounceback..... even though i still have dallas.

 
Still alive in TC's contest, but this is the first time I've looked ahead (which is usually the Kiss o' death for me).

Anyway, if you can figure out an "easy" pick for Week 16, more power to you. That looks like the end of the contest for many if they get that far. It is a rough one.

 
Still alive in TC's contest, but this is the first time I've looked ahead (which is usually the Kiss o' death for me).Anyway, if you can figure out an "easy" pick for Week 16, more power to you. That looks like the end of the contest for many if they get that far. It is a rough one.
Week 16 should I make it (Alive if pitt wins this tonight in another pool) will be either:NO @ Det NE vs AZHous @ OakTough week for sure..
 
Still alive in TC's contest, but this is the first time I've looked ahead (which is usually the Kiss o' death for me).Anyway, if you can figure out an "easy" pick for Week 16, more power to you. That looks like the end of the contest for many if they get that far. It is a rough one.
No matter what, it's a nice problem to have.
 
Dallas (the Niners suck and Romo is finally back)

Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)

Tampa Bay (Detroit is easy pickings)

 
Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)
Here's the thing on Tenn. I actually haven't used them yet, but I don't know if I will. They are starting to approach history with the undefeated angle. NE made it look easy last year, but Tenn isn't in the same class of dominance. I could see them slipping, especially to a team not on their level. I wouldn't want to pick against them in general, but I also don't think I'd put all my marbles on them winning any single game over the next few weeks.
 
Twilight said:
[scooter] said:
Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)
Here's the thing on Tenn. I actually haven't used them yet, but I don't know if I will. They are starting to approach history with the undefeated angle. NE made it look easy last year, but Tenn isn't in the same class of dominance. I could see them slipping, especially to a team not on their level. I wouldn't want to pick against them in general, but I also don't think I'd put all my marbles on them winning any single game over the next few weeks.
Next week on Turkey day in Detroit - scares me but looks like a solid choice amongst all others.
 
Twilight said:
[scooter] said:
Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)
Here's the thing on Tenn. I actually haven't used them yet, but I don't know if I will. They are starting to approach history with the undefeated angle. NE made it look easy last year, but Tenn isn't in the same class of dominance. I could see them slipping, especially to a team not on their level. I wouldn't want to pick against them in general, but I also don't think I'd put all my marbles on them winning any single game over the next few weeks.
Dear Mr. Twilight,Please let them pick whomever they wish. Just you and me come week 17:PDear Mr. Scooter,The Rams look pretty good this week, don't they?
 
Is anyone considering Cleveland over Houston. It's my pick this week but now with the Injury to Quinn, who knows how this one will turn out? I still like their chances, the Browns have looked pretty good lately with the emergence of Jackson as a speed back to complement Lewis and even if there is a problem with Quinn the Browns have arguably the best back up QB in football. It's also a home game for the Browns so the "Dog Pound" should be in full effect!!

 
Twilight said:
[scooter] said:
Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)
Here's the thing on Tenn. I actually haven't used them yet, but I don't know if I will. They are starting to approach history with the undefeated angle. NE made it look easy last year, but Tenn isn't in the same class of dominance. I could see them slipping, especially to a team not on their level. I wouldn't want to pick against them in general, but I also don't think I'd put all my marbles on them winning any single game over the next few weeks.
I agree. I haven't used Tennessee either, as I have them penciled in for Week 14 at home against Cleveland. But, for some reason I'm feeling less confident about them. The pressure has got to be building each week, the target is on them now, and I don't know if I want to bet on an undefeated team. If they lose this this week I would feel a little better about them Week 14.
 
Twilight said:
[scooter] said:
Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)
Here's the thing on Tenn. I actually haven't used them yet, but I don't know if I will. They are starting to approach history with the undefeated angle. NE made it look easy last year, but Tenn isn't in the same class of dominance. I could see them slipping, especially to a team not on their level. I wouldn't want to pick against them in general, but I also don't think I'd put all my marbles on them winning any single game over the next few weeks.
I agree. I haven't used Tennessee either, as I have them penciled in for Week 14 at home against Cleveland. But, for some reason I'm feeling less confident about them. The pressure has got to be building each week, the target is on them now, and I don't know if I want to bet on an undefeated team. If they lose this this week I would feel a little better about them Week 14.
Not following the "they'll play better in 2 weeks if they lose this week" angle.If you haven't used TEN yet, I would highly suggest wk13 @ DET or wk14 vs CLE (especially if Quinn is limited).
 
i have dallas, denver, wash available.

gonna go with the home non division game dallas. i just don't trust the denver game.

 
plus i can't root for the donkey's against the raiders. i had miami last week & it nearly killed me. the last second aspect. :fishing:

 
puckalicious said:
Tennessee (I'm sure they've already been used in most pools, but I just don't see Favre pulling this one out of his butt)
Here's the thing on Tenn. I actually haven't used them yet, but I don't know if I will. They are starting to approach history with the undefeated angle. NE made it look easy last year, but Tenn isn't in the same class of dominance. I could see them slipping, especially to a team not on their level. I wouldn't want to pick against them in general, but I also don't think I'd put all my marbles on them winning any single game over the next few weeks.
I agree. I haven't used Tennessee either, as I have them penciled in for Week 14 at home against Cleveland. But, for some reason I'm feeling less confident about them. The pressure has got to be building each week, the target is on them now, and I don't know if I want to bet on an undefeated team. If they lose this this week I would feel a little better about them Week 14.
Not following the "they'll play better in 2 weeks if they lose this week" angle.If you haven't used TEN yet, I would highly suggest wk13 @ DET or wk14 vs CLE (especially if Quinn is limited).
good point.... TEN is not talented enough to lose this week or next and finish 15-1.... they'd more likely limp in at 13-3 i think.
 
Dear Mr. Scooter,The Rams look pretty good this week, don't they?
I'm assuming that you mean "look pretty good to lose"? Because there's no way I'd risk a suicide pool on a 2-8 team (unless they were playing another 2-8 team).Anyway, I don't like Chicago for the following reasons:- playing on the road- playing in a dome (unfamiliar territory for them)- Orton still not 100%- passing defense is 3rd worst in the league (one big play from Avery or Holt could swing the game)
 
Dear Mr. Scooter,The Rams look pretty good this week, don't they?
I'm assuming that you mean "look pretty good to lose"? Because there's no way I'd risk a suicide pool on a 2-8 team (unless they were playing another 2-8 team).
:thumbup:
Anyway, I don't like Chicago for the following reasons:- playing on the road- playing in a dome (unfamiliar territory for them)- Orton still not 100%- passing defense is 3rd worst in the league (one big play from Avery or Holt could swing the game)- they suck
Agreed.
 
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