So I've run the projection algorithm for quarterbacks in Week 15, and so far nothing sticks out like last week with the Ciatrick Fason over Larry Johnson pick (yeah... I don't really want to talk about it). I'm not trying to blow smoke up anyone backside, these are just one math model's opinion, but I figure it can't hurt to share. Last week the model thought Tom Brady would score 17 fantasy points and that Romo would toss three TDs, for what it's worth. At the same time, it did have Vick ranked 19th among QBs and saw Culter throwing for 178 and 2.3 TDs (he had 188 and 2). Nothing is perfect, but another set of projections to check out is never a bad thing.
I've seen a number of "waiver wire" QBs being discussed on the board, and here's basically how the algorithm sees those guys being ranked:
1a. Kitna - 296 yds, 1.8 TDs, 0.9 INTs
1b. Garcia (very close) - 276 yds, 2.5 TDs, 1.7 INT
3. Garrard - 172 yds, 1.9 TDs, 0.3 INTs
4. Cutler - 181 yds, 2.3 TDs, 0.9 INTs
5. Harrington - 155 yds, 1.7 TDs, 1.4 INTs
6. Young - 136 yds, 0.9 TDs, 1.0 INTs, 33 rush yds, 0.3 rush TD
Kitna is ranked 8th overall, being Brees, Manning, Rivers, Brady, Palmer, Romo and Hasselbeck. If you've got any of those guys you are probably going to start them anyway. You can go to my article on PROTRADE.com to check out stats for all quarterbacks. It should be on the home page, but if they moved it check the NFL page. A note, the rankings are bases on 4 per passing TD and -2 for INTs, so that may change the order depending on your scoring system.
Tomorrow, I'll finish the running back projections, and you can be sure that Fason will NOT be ranked ahead of Larry Johnson this week.
Also, feel free to rip on the projections if you think they are wrong. I may have built the model but I don't take it personally when people think that it is (or I am) idiotic.
I've seen a number of "waiver wire" QBs being discussed on the board, and here's basically how the algorithm sees those guys being ranked:
1a. Kitna - 296 yds, 1.8 TDs, 0.9 INTs
1b. Garcia (very close) - 276 yds, 2.5 TDs, 1.7 INT
3. Garrard - 172 yds, 1.9 TDs, 0.3 INTs
4. Cutler - 181 yds, 2.3 TDs, 0.9 INTs
5. Harrington - 155 yds, 1.7 TDs, 1.4 INTs
6. Young - 136 yds, 0.9 TDs, 1.0 INTs, 33 rush yds, 0.3 rush TD
Kitna is ranked 8th overall, being Brees, Manning, Rivers, Brady, Palmer, Romo and Hasselbeck. If you've got any of those guys you are probably going to start them anyway. You can go to my article on PROTRADE.com to check out stats for all quarterbacks. It should be on the home page, but if they moved it check the NFL page. A note, the rankings are bases on 4 per passing TD and -2 for INTs, so that may change the order depending on your scoring system.
Tomorrow, I'll finish the running back projections, and you can be sure that Fason will NOT be ranked ahead of Larry Johnson this week.
Also, feel free to rip on the projections if you think they are wrong. I may have built the model but I don't take it personally when people think that it is (or I am) idiotic.
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). I'm at a fork in the road whether to start Kitna or Favre in another league that you and I didn't ruin last week. The risk with Kitna is obviously turnovers and I expect Kitna will have to throw the ball to keep Detroit in it. Favre and GB on the other hand will most likely ride the Ahman Green train. On the surface I would expect the end result to be a toss up but I wonder if your model supports that.
