Thanks, Chaka. Great reasoning and thoughts as always. Mixon is a crazy workhorse, and IMO, is a better back than Robinson. It's all match-up. Looks like I make my decision at 9:55 AM West Coast Time.
FYI, I wanted to look into the stats of RBs vs Denver. Still close for me between Mixon / Kamara / Robinson / Conner... I think they are all comparable. However, based on likely game scripts and scenarios I think Mixon is going to have the lowest probability of reaching his ceiling. He can, but I think the other guys have higher probability.
Average of lead RBs vs Denver over 14 weeks:
12.5 rushes/59 rush yds/4.7 ypc/.36 rush TD
2.5 rec/25.21 yds/9 ypr/.14 rec TDs
You can see, very low TDs vs Broncos. Murray/Najee/Jacobs/Drake/Dernest were the ones who scored rushing TDs. Only Drake and Ekeler scored receiving TDs.
Average non PPR FP are 11.4 with average rank of 23.84 for RBs against Denver.
Denver is also better against the pass than the run so I'm not sure Bengals will dominate them through air either. If anything will be a close, low scoring game TBH.
Denver will also plan to run over Bengals and dominate time of posession. Bengals have good run D but weak pass D. Don't think this will be a lopsided game that favors Mixon or will have a lot of 1st and goal situations. Given the .36 TDs scored per game on average on the ground, I feel Mixon doesn't have a high probability of reaching his ceiling. He can, and has the talent, but his FP really are TD heavy and this is not a matchup conducive to TDs.
Football is random though so GL either way.