Week 16 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

Probably shoulda started Gabe Davis over Goodwin too.

LOL. In the future you should just start the players who score the most points.

That’s an excellent strategy. I’ll have to try that. 💡

Ok, so Firlds did nothing after I posted that. And with Hock, Barkley, Higgins & JJ, I’m crushing my opponent even with the goose egg from Goodwin.

Yeah congrats of course. Fields performance was disappointing but I'm not putting that on the wind, just a down game IMO.

I feel bad for those who had bad outcomes because I backed him so hard this week but, it happens.

Goodwin was always a big risk, that wasn't entirely surprising. I hope I conveyed that possibility/likelihood in my reccos here.

On the plus side I feel pretty good about backing Minshew strongly, so it balances out in the end.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Probably shoulda started Gabe Davis over Goodwin too.

LOL. In the future you should just start the players who score the most points.

That’s an excellent strategy. I’ll have to try that. 💡

Ok, so Firlds did nothing after I posted that. And with Hock, Barkley, Higgins & JJ, I’m crushing my opponent even with the goose egg from Goodwin.

Yeah congrats of course. Fields performance was disappointing but I'm not putting that on the wind, just a down game IMO.

I feel bad for those who had bad outcomes because I backed him so hard this week but, it happens.

Goodwin was always a big risk, that wasn't entirely surprising. I hope I conveyed that possibility/likelihood in my reccos here.

On the plus side I feel pretty good about backing Minshew strongly, so it balances out in the end.

In the end we are all, to a man or woman, responsible for our own lineups.

Advice-givers are acting with generous and well intentioned motives.

But we are all just doing the best we have with the information at hand. None of us are psychic.

I appreciate your advice, even if I don’t take it. I’ve got McGloughlin left, for example. Had I started Gano I’d have 15.5 more points, had I started the Vikings K I’d have at least 12.

But I might get significantly less for ignoring your well-reasoned advice.

Fortunately I’ll likely win regardless. At the end of the day all that matters is my team outscores my opponent’s

Football is a crazy & difficult to predict sport. I just appreciate your willingness to help everyone.

 

[rockaction]

Okay, I'll keep it going. Jeff Wilson/Deon Jackson/Courtland Sutton/Allen Lazard

I'm leaning Sutton if he's able to go. Maybe Wilson. I'm in a tight one and I do not trust Jackson. His PFF grade combined with his Football Outsiders score is skeeving me out.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

I’m in a tight race, down by 10pts with Russel Wilson and M Williams or L Fournette vs T Hill. It’s a 2 week points race, but I sure would like to be on top by the end if this week. The other 2 teams are 30+ pts behind.

So in a 12 team SF PPR league

M Williams or L Fournette(I also have R White).

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Okay, I'll keep it going. Jeff Wilson/Deon Jackson/Courtland Sutton/Allen Lazard

I'm leaning Sutton if he's able to go. Maybe Wilson. I'm in a tight one and I do not trust Jackson. His PFF grade combined with his Football Outsiders score is skeeving me out.

If Sutton is clear and active...I might go there vs the Rams with little to play for
Wilson splits with Mostert coming off one of his best rushing performances of the season. Coming off hip injury
I hear Moss is the starter in Indy but Deon had impressive stats earlier in the year.

Tough choice, not sure I'm helping much

 

[kyoun1e]

PPR league. Need a flex:

* M. Pittman vs LAC -- Don't love the matchup and not sure what you get with Foles. At least Ryan got Pittman his targets even if they were 8 yard slants.

or

* R. White @AZ -- Lenny getting more opportunities. Seems like a 60/40 split. Good matchup though. TB could have a get right game here.

Which?

Thanks

 

[yoman]

PPR Flex
Dillon or Watson @ Mia

In a tight match up ~15 points with Mike Williams and my other flex left going up against Hopkins and Waddle

 

[yoman]

PPR league. Need a flex:

* M. Pittman vs LAC -- Don't love the matchup and not sure what you get with Foles. At least Ryan got Pittman his targets even if they were 8 yard slants.

or

* R. White @AZ -- Lenny getting more opportunities. Seems like a 60/40 split. Good matchup though. TB could have a get right game here.

Which?

Thanks

Tough choice with Foles at QB but since it is PPR I would lean towards Pittman. I don't like the time share and don't trust TB running the ball

 

[conlilnew]

You wouldn't think I'd be in the semi's having to start one of these two but I am.
Full PPR
Moss v LAC
Dillon v Mia
TIA

 

[yoman]

You wouldn't think I'd be in the semi's having to start one of these two but I am.
Full PPR
Moss v LAC
Dillon v Mia
TIA

I have Moss also on my team with Watson and Dillon and I am not even considering him because I like those 2 better. That's just my 2 cents.

 

[rockaction]

You wouldn't think I'd be in the semi's having to start one of these two but I am.
Full PPR
Moss v LAC
Dillon v Mia
TIA

Dillon for me

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

PPR Flex
Dillon or Watson @ Mia

In a tight match up ~15 points with Mike Williams and my other flex left going up against Hopkins and Waddle

Dillon has been good for 18-22 a week for the last 3 weeks.

It’s a tough call, and I’ve been wrong a lot, but I’m starting Dillon today.

 

[Chaka]

Okay, I'll keep it going. Jeff Wilson/Deon Jackson/Courtland Sutton/Allen Lazard

I'm leaning Sutton if he's able to go. Maybe Wilson. I'm in a tight one and I do not trust Jackson. His PFF grade combined with his Football Outsiders score is skeeving me out.

Flip a coin.

I can see Sutton, assuming it's PPR. The offense is finally playing better and he was the leading target prior to his injury. I don't like to read that he is "optimistic" about playing and I think Jeudy may be the 1A going forward but Sutton could still rack up 7-8 targets. Not sure they will need to throw enough to top that.

Everyone else is probably more speculative with uncertainty about the Mostert/Wilson & Jackson/Moss splits and concerns there aren't enough balls to go around for Lazard

Sutton>Jackson>Wilson>Lazard

 

[LionOfGosforth]

PPR Flex
Dillon or Watson @ Mia

In a tight match up ~15 points with Mike Williams and my other flex left going up against Hopkins and Waddle

I had the same choice yesterday and picked Watson based on assumption i'd need decent points today. Turns out by a stroke of luck, don't need any so i'm just leaving him in. In your specific case, I may lean Dillon since he represents a bit less volatility and catches passes anyway. Good luck.

 

[Chaka]

I’m in a tight race, down by 10pts with Russel Wilson and M Williams or L Fournette vs T Hill. It’s a 2 week points race, but I sure would like to be on top by the end if this week. The other 2 teams are 30+ pts behind.

So in a 12 team SF PPR league

M Williams or L Fournette(I also have R White).

On paper this seems to be shaping up as a Fournette game, doesn't it? For me it is just difficult to trust any aspect of the Tampa Bay offense except for Godwin. That doesn't mean it is easy to trust Williams though as there are also a bunch of other players to siphon off targets.

This is just a coin flip and I think you know it. No amount of reasoning is going to get you from A to B. Personally I probably roll with Fournette because you're in a PPR. He has 18 targets in the last 3 games and has seen 7 targets in 3 of his last 5 games. On top of potential goal line stuff I think he is the better option.

Fournette>Williams

 

[Pip's Invitation]

If L. Murray is active, start him at flex in PPR league at LAR or G. Everett at IND?

 

[Chaka]

PPR league. Need a flex:

* M. Pittman vs LAC -- Don't love the matchup and not sure what you get with Foles. At least Ryan got Pittman his targets even if they were 8 yard slants.

or

* R. White @AZ -- Lenny getting more opportunities. Seems like a 60/40 split. Good matchup though. TB could have a get right game here.

Which?

Thanks

I probably go with Pittman.

Pittman>R.White

 

[Chaka]

If L. Murray is active, start him at flex in PPR league at LAR or G. Everett at IND?

I would.

PPR Flex
Dillon or Watson @ Mia

In a tight match up ~15 points with Mike Williams and my other flex left going up against Hopkins and Waddle

Dillon

You wouldn't think I'd be in the semi's having to start one of these two but I am.
Full PPR
Moss v LAC
Dillon v Mia
TIA

Dilloon

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If L. Murray is active, start him at flex in PPR league at LAR or G. Everett at IND?

Everett seems safer. I’m not sure what either’s ceiling is. Everett seems like the better floor.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

OK, this is kind of embarrassing. I either failed to make the playoffs or got eliminated in the first round of every competitive league I'm in. The only one left is the 8-teamer I co-manage with my son. I feel like that Seinfeld episode where Kramer takes a martial-arts class with 12-year-olds.

But since I totally need my fantasy fix, I'm sweating over those decisions the way I normally would over my adult league. (I'll give my son the final decision, but he doesn't follow this stuff too closely, so I generally have to boil it down to a couple options and let him pick among those.)

Full PPR, start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 RB/WR flex

RB options
Kamara
Sanders
Walker
McKinnon

WR options
Diggs
Hopkins
DSmith
JuJu
Aiyuk

As of right now, thinking Kamara, Sanders, McKinnon, Diggs, D-Hop. A little worried about Sanders' matchup, but figure with Hurts out they'll lean on the run game more (and he won't lose out on all those QB rushing TDs). Walker's ankle is still iffy, Smith has a backup QB and Goedert returning, and Aiyuk doesn't seem to be on the same page as Purdy even with Deebo out. JuJu is the one I'd consider, but Seattle is a run-funnel defense with excellent QBs, so I figure McKinnon is the safer bet. But it's entirely possible his luck could run out this week and it could be a pure Pacheco game.

I think the choice I'll present to my son will be McKinnon vs. JuJu in the flex.

Thoughts?

I agree with Kamara & Sanders because Walker was DNP again today.

I agree with Diggs but would definitely start DeVonta Smith over Hopkins with Marty McSorley at QB. Minshew>McFly

Thanks for all the advice. Not to be That Guy who asks for help and then questions it, but what do you think of the argument that Hopkins is the unquestioned WR1 for AZ, whereas Smith generally takes a backseat to Brown for Philly? I think Minshew is a competent QB and agree he's miles better than the Old Ale House (inside joke for anyone who's ever lived in NYC), but can he support two fantasy-relevant WRs?

All I can say is Minshew has 2 or more TDs in 16 of 22 starts. Back seat or not, over his last six games DeVonta has 8, 9, 9, 8, 8 & 8 targets. That's nice volume from a better QB.

I am sure McSorley will throw the ball to Hopkins 10-15 times but I wonder if any of those will be high quality targets or if Hopkins will end the game with a 7-43-0 line.

Hopkins if a fine choice in a PPR, he probably has a stable floor. I just question if he has any upside at all.

Wow, you really nailed it with Smith vs Hopkins (except for the fact that if DHop had “only “ gotten a 7-43 we would have won. Instead we lost by 5)

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Smith "generally takes a backseat to Brown" is not a particularly good reason to bench him.

Brown: 80-1304-10
Smith: 79-1014-7

Their volume is about the same but Brown makes more big plays. This offense supports 2 WRs for fantasy, even with Minshew starting.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Smith "generally takes a backseat to Brown" is not a particularly good reason to bench him.

Brown: 80-1304-10
Smith: 79-1014-7

Their volume is about the same but Brown makes more big plays. This offense supports 2 WRs for fantasy, even with Minshew starting.

Once again, something that could have been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!

(Oh wait, @Chaka did bring it to my attention. Dagnabbit!)

 

[Chaka]

Smith "generally takes a backseat to Brown" is not a particularly good reason to bench him.

Brown: 80-1304-10
Smith: 79-1014-7

Their volume is about the same but Brown makes more big plays. This offense supports 2 WRs for fantasy, even with Minshew starting.

Once again, something that could have been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!

(Oh wait, @Chaka did bring it to my attention. Dagnabbit!)

Thanks. Now tell everyone who I recommended Marquise Goodwin .

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Thanks. Now tell everyone who I recommended Marquise Goodwin .

I was driving the Marquis Goodwin bus since the “waiver pickup” topic.


It is what it is - it was an incredibly reasonable position to take. He’s been good all year, Lockett out, high volume passing likely, opponent’s weakness against the pass. It all added up. The methodology was sound.

It just didn’t work out.

Hopefully people advanced regardless (I did) and on the bright side, now I only need to choose between Lockett, Gabe Davis, and/or Palmer for my WR3 and/or Flex next week instead of adding Goodwin to that list. See? Silver lining.