Week 5 - "Lotto" (1 Viewer)

[Football Jones]

This is going to be an interesting week in regards to FF. We should know a lot more about all these lotto-type RBs like Gallman, Latavius, Collins, Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, McGuire, Rawls, Lacy, McKissic, & Ekeler (might be forgetting somebody).

Can't ever remember a week with so much potential value swing. That's 10 players who could see their short term &/or long-term value rise dramatically. Looking forward to it.

 

[xenon]

agreed

i bought into and have been holding Collins for two weeks now.  Snagged Lacy this week.

Just got Martin back and drafted Hyde . 

Hoping for the best with Collins and/or Martin.....at least one of them. 

Amari Cooper hasF&^%&^ me. 

Have Keenan and Thomas. 

Sitting at 2-2.  Lets see which gambles pay off (Martin @ draft and Collins speculation) or not. 

Feeling decent as of now but facing Rogers, TY, Duke and Amendola (decent numbers) this week..  I started Martin and am happy with 15 for now....need the W

 

[TZMarkie]

 I picked up Gallman and Collins. I'm in 4 leagues, and ironically, the only place I could bite the bullet and get them were in the same league.

I tend to really stock up on RBs, so I am loaded in most spots. I couldn't really maneuver these type guys into place on my rosters, for I already have better players.

 Now on the other side of the coin, I have guys like Julio Jones, Amari Cooper Demaryius Thomas and Brandin Cooks everywhere.......

Thats what is killing me this year....and they are killing plenty of owners I'm sure.

The ones on your list I am most excited about, are the two I snagged. Gallman and Collins, who seem to have the clearest path to a decent role. (I am not much interested in the Seahawks RB carousel)

But the one king maker everyone is sleeping on is Matt Breida.   He isn't on your list, and understandably so since the only way he explodes is a Hyde injury.

Its not like Hyde is the bastion of health either. I have Hyde in 2 leagues, and Breida tucked firmly on the bench there, and I even have Breida in 1 of the other 2 leagues as well.

Collins may well turn out to be the one that helps many owners win championships.  Check out his playoff schedule.

 (His week 14 matchup is @ Pitt)

 WEEK 15 @ CLEVELAND

 WEEK 16 @ HOME VS. INDY

 

 TZM

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I did pick up Jones but won't he be mostly obsolete after this week? I think he IS better than Williams but he's still behind him on the depth chart and Ty gets back in like 2 or 3 weeks. Is he even worth a bench spot? I also picked up McKinnon. 

 

[TZMarkie]

I did pick up Jones but won't he be mostly obsolete after this week? I think he IS better than Williams but he's still behind him on the depth chart and Ty gets back in like 2 or 3 weeks. Is he even worth a bench spot? I also picked up McKinnon. 

 Aaron Jones is a legit dart throw, and I don't see an issue picking him up, but at this point I would try and snag someone with a clearer path to a long term workload.

Now, if you have TY Montgomery on your roster as well, then I would think about rostering Jones permanently. (It's too bad Williams is in there cluttering this up, but thats just the way this goes)

 I actually like McKinnon MORE than Lat. Murray, but I am avoiding that situation altogether if I can.

I picked up McKinnon after Cook went down in the one league I lost Cook. Then I dropped him a day or so later in favor of other RBs in more attractive scenarios.

 Namely, Gallman and Collins.

 TZM

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I didn't have a high waiver pick and even if I did I don't know if I would have wanted a Giants RB. Supposedly no one grabbed Collins and my dumb ### didn't notice. I have Hyde/Breida and Martin and an irrational optimism that Crowell starts doing things. I don't think its impossible that McKinnon grabs the starting job. We don't have a flex in this league (start 2 rb) so maybe I should just use my SF and TB backfields, pray to the football Gods that they don't get injured and use Crowell as the most expensive bench warmer ever.   

 

[TZMarkie]

I didn't have a high waiver pick and even if I did I don't know if I would have wanted a Giants RB. Supposedly no one grabbed Collins and my dumb ### didn't notice. I have Hyde/Breida and Martin and an irrational optimism that Crowell starts doing things. I don't think its impossible that McKinnon grabs the starting job. We don't have a flex in this league (start 2 rb) so maybe I should just use my SF and TB backfields, pray to the football Gods that they don't get injured and use Crowell as the most expensive bench warmer ever.   

I have Crowell in 2 leagues, so I know what you are going through. (in fact, in one league I traded for him after week 1, yikes)

If you want to see something funny, I have said it numerous times on this board, how I will "never get sucked in to the Cleveland RB trap ever again". I know its around here somewhere. But the "one of the greatest O-Lines ever" talk in the preseason warmed me up to Crowell, and I fell for it again. 

That aside, because of byes and injuries, I am firing him up in 2 leagues, in fact my biggest two leagues. If I can't start him against the Jets, then I just shouldn't have drafted him, period.

I am not high on anything GMEN related, but a starting RB does have some value. The more I have on my bench, the more I have as trade ammo, or as injury protection. I figure if Gallman has another good game (after looking far better than anything else the GMEN have last week) then I am going to try and pawn him off for a decent WR2-WR3 ish guy. Gallman has a great matchup too, for what its worth.

Looks like you are OK at RB for now, but I would definitely be snagging some of these lotto types if you could.

 TZM

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

I think I just want to yell at Jackson/Crowell. :/  

I feel like I'm pretty strong elsewhere assuming Jimmy Graham starts doing things. 

As mentioned I have both Jones and McKinnon. Could drop the Balt defense (was gonna stream them next week) 

My choices are basically Derrick Henry, Fat Rob, McGuire, and Bernard. I guess any of them would be a decent depth pick with Henry/McGuire offering the most upside.  

 

[wuchild97]

I picked up Collins. I need to start him with Freeman on Bye. Im really eyeing McGuire before Sunday. I think he could be legit. Forte is my only issue. Do they put him on the shelf for ROS, if so...McGuire and Powell  will feast

 

[The Frankman]

I picked up Alex Collins back on Sept. 21st, snagged Gallman an hour before the Giants@Bucs game (had Darkwa and he was ruled OUT), and won Murray via FAAB. My RBs previously had been Perkins, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Chris Johnson. Since I kinda went ZeroRB if I can get legit longterm value from 2 of the tickets I'd be ecstatic. Wanted to break down the Top 3 guys...

As a Giants fan the funny thing is people are evaluating the line from the first 2 games; it's actually gotten better (yes, scary) the last two since the replacements have outplayed the previous "talent". So much of what the Giants want to do is predicated on being able to run, and that's why if Wayne Gallman can get the starting gig his upside is arguably as big as as Alex Collins. For one, he has the most pass catching ability of the three. Two, he has the least competition as of now since Paul Perkins is turrible, coaching staff doesn't believe in Darkwa despite running better than Perkins for months, and Vereen is strictly the 3rd down/passing back the Giants tried to make a starter last year (didn't work).

Alex Collins has shown more explosion both Murray and Gallman, but doesn't really play on passing downs due to a) Buck Allen holding that role and b) not a great pass catcher. He's clearly ahead of West now and offers the most immediate path to success, but has the greatest flaw with his fumbling issue. Harbaugh already said he won't tolerate it, so the time from now until his next fumble is key...

Murray right now has the most secure position: He's the de facto starter on early downs/goal line, has had the pedigree as "the man" the other two lack, and at one time flashed power and speed. His warts are the fact hat he's still not fully healthy after offseason ankle surgery and not only looks slow, he can't cut properly going left. Also, Jerick McKinnion may eat into his early down work and already is the passing down back.

 

[rickyg]

 I picked up Gallman and Collins. I'm in 4 leagues, and ironically, the only place I could bite the bullet and get them were in the same league.

I tend to really stock up on RBs, so I am loaded in most spots. I couldn't really maneuver these type guys into place on my rosters, for I already have better players.

 Now on the other side of the coin, I have guys like Julio Jones, Amari Cooper Demaryius Thomas and Brandin Cooks everywhere.......

Thats what is killing me this year....and they are killing plenty of owners I'm sure.

The ones on your list I am most excited about, are the two I snagged. Gallman and Collins, who seem to have the clearest path to a decent role. (I am not much interested in the Seahawks RB carousel)

But the one king maker everyone is sleeping on is Matt Breida.   He isn't on your list, and understandably so since the only way he explodes is a Hyde injury.

Its not like Hyde is the bastion of health either. I have Hyde in 2 leagues, and Breida tucked firmly on the bench there, and I even have Breida in 1 of the other 2 leagues as well.

Collins may well turn out to be the one that helps many owners win championships.  Check out his playoff schedule.

 (His week 14 matchup is @ Pitt)

 WEEK 15 @ CLEVELAND

 WEEK 16 @ HOME VS. INDY

 

 TZM

If I can MAKE it to the playoffs I think my team will be dangerous.  But I've had such a slow start.  I've got collins locked and loaded on ever roster. I have a really good feeling about this kid.  I feel like he can be that Rb that comes out of nowhere this year and puts up rb1 numbers.  I picked him up after week 3 and stashed him.  

I wasn't able to get any of the other ww guys this week with the 12th spot.  But out of those guys I think gallman and lat murray have the opportunity to become league winners.  

 

[Tanner9919]

Ekeler..that LAC team simply CANNOT keep relying on the overrated, under-performing , seemingly always hurt Melvin Gordon.they have to try something else..they can't run the ball.at all..at least not with Gordon,but Ekeler has looked really good when given the shot..playing NYG's defense isn't easy but they can be run on they're 30th in rush attempts ,and 28th in rush yards.

Gallman if Perkins is out. Lacy, simply  just because Rawls sucks

 

[davearm]

 But the one king maker everyone is sleeping on is Matt Breida.   He isn't on your list, and understandably so since the only way he explodes is a Hyde injury.

Its not like Hyde is the bastion of health either. I have Hyde in 2 leagues, and Breida tucked firmly on the bench there, and I even have Breida in 1 of the other 2 leagues as well.

 TZM

Breida kinda fell off my radar after he split work with Mostert (?) after Hyde was sidelined.

Breida in a bell cow role could be a season changer. Breida in a committee doesn't move the needle.

 

[Crystalsteam99]

 I picked up Gallman and Collins. I'm in 4 leagues, and ironically, the only place I could bite the bullet and get them were in the same league.

I tend to really stock up on RBs, so I am loaded in most spots. I couldn't really maneuver these type guys into place on my rosters, for I already have better players.

 Now on the other side of the coin, I have guys like Julio Jones, Amari Cooper Demaryius Thomas and Brandin Cooks everywhere.......

Thats what is killing me this year....and they are killing plenty of owners I'm sure.

The ones on your list I am most excited about, are the two I snagged. Gallman and Collins, who seem to have the clearest path to a decent role. (I am not much interested in the Seahawks RB carousel)

But the one king maker everyone is sleeping on is Matt Breida.   He isn't on your list, and understandably so since the only way he explodes is a Hyde injury.

Its not like Hyde is the bastion of health either. I have Hyde in 2 leagues, and Breida tucked firmly on the bench there, and I even have Breida in 1 of the other 2 leagues as well.

Collins may well turn out to be the one that helps many owners win championships.  Check out his playoff schedule.

 (His week 14 matchup is @ Pitt)

 WEEK 15 @ CLEVELAND

 WEEK 16 @ HOME VS. INDY

 

 TZM

With Collins fumbleitis(If he fumbles this week,he might get benched) problems,his value will take a huge hit when Woodhead returns(Who they trust in the redzone). Baltimore's offense doesn't offer much upside,for a guy like Collins that isn't involved in the passing game.He will be a TD dependent RB, and plays on one of the worst Offenses in Football.That won't win many championships... 

 

[TZMarkie]

Breida kinda fell off my radar after he split work with Mostert (?) after Hyde was sidelined.

Breida in a bell cow role could be a season changer. Breida in a committee doesn't move the needle.

Raheem Mostert has been with 6 or 7 organizations in a very brief career. (2 or 3 years, I cannot remember)  He has often been lounging on the practice squad, going from team to team.

The only way Breida becomes a potential league winner, (or a big RB tool to help teams) is if an injury to Hyde occurs. I think we all can agree on that.

I don't see any way Mostert plays anything close to a significant role, unless both Hyde and Breida gets injured.  That aside, one would think Mostert (unless they actually sign someone else) will be a breather back for Breida if the Hyde injury takes place.

 Easily one of the better cuffs in fantasy in my opinion.

 TZM

 

[davearm]

Raheem Mostert has been with 6 or 7 organizations in a very brief career. (2 or 3 years, I cannot remember)  He has often been lounging on the practice squad, going from team to team.

The only way Breida becomes a potential league winner, (or a big RB tool to help teams) is if an injury to Hyde occurs. I think we all can agree on that.

I don't see any way Mostert plays anything close to a significant role, unless both Hyde and Breida gets injured.  That aside, one would think Mostert (unless they actually sign someone else) will be a breather back for Breida if the Hyde injury takes place.

 Easily one of the better cuffs in fantasy in my opinion.

 TZM

Hey I'm with you. Just having a hard time ignoring what actually happened when the situation came up.

 

[TZMarkie]

With Collins fumbleitis(If he fumbles this week,he might get benched) problems,his value will take a huge hit when Woodhead returns(Who they trust in the redzone). Baltimore's offense doesn't offer much upside,for a guy like Collins that isn't involved in the passing game.He will be a TD dependent RB, and plays on one of the worst Offenses in Football.That won't win many championships... 

We know from Harbaugh, he is on a short leash, agreed.

But Baltimore does like to run the ball, and their offense will almost certainly have to improve, at least a little as the season progresses. 

You can chalk me up as someone that doesn't think Woodhead will stay healthy.  As far as I'm concerned, I will only worry about Woodhead when and IF he returns, and stays healthy. Even if Woodhead comes back in week 11 like they are planning, that is certainly no sure thing he is still healthy in week 15.

 They aren't particularly fond of Buck Allen/they often seem hesitant to use him unless the injuries are everywhere, and from what I can see, the Ravens just rolled out West because he was "the best of an average batch". West himself has never had an extended time of great production. (this coming from a guy that was targeting him everywhere preseason,I loved his scenario)

So while I am not depending on Collins by any stretch, I think there is a fair chance he may be heavily used when the time comes. What stands out to me are weeks 15 and 16.

 There is every chance he fumbles 1 or 2 times in the next 2 weeks, and he falls off the face of the fantasy Earth. But I figure there is still a good chance he will be relevant when week 15 rolls around.

I'm 6+ RBs deep on every team I have, and always carry a bunch of extras, but he will fit in just fine as a dart throw in the one spot I have him in.

Lets face it, all we are doing is throwing darts anyway.

Week 15 is a long way off, and by then 1/2 of the NFL's starting RBs could be injured.  By that time, there will be plenty of people in the playoffs starting whatever it is they can muster up for "RB2-ish" production, as more and more RBs  fall injured later in the season.

I don't think Collins will carry anyone's team, but he can HELP if the right things take place. Those things being A- Woodhead hurt, and B- The other Ravens backs are a suckfest.  Both of those things are already true, and we haven't even made it to Sunday of week 5 yet.

 TZM

 

[davearm]

Thing A is fixing the fumbling, but I agree with all the rest.

 

[TheBaylorKid]

After this week Gallman has Denver, Seattle, Bye, and then Rams so I am not betting on him as a lotto ticket 

 

[The Frankman]

After this week Gallman has Denver, Seattle, Bye, and then Rams so I am not betting on him as a lotto ticket 

See now you're confusing opportunity with future performance. The important thing is not so much future performance, but guaranteed future usage. If I gave you a choice of two backs, one will get 7-8  touches vs. bad defenses only between the 20s, and another back that will get 25 touches vs. top defenses all over the field, which would you want? Volume and opportunity share is what you're looking for first and foremost.

 

[djmich]

Hey I'm with you. Just having a hard time ignoring what actually happened when the situation came up.

I'm not Nostradamus but I think Brenda is fools gold.  The time share with mostert when Hyde went down briefly is telling.  If Hyde goes down long term I think if not mostert then SF will employ someone else to at minimum reduce Breidas value significantly 

 

[IHEARTFF]

I realize he is the OP, but Jamaal Williams has been seemingly forgotten about.

Ekeler shouldn’t be on any waiver wire if you have space. Guy could be #1 claim next week. 

Should be be an interesting week. 

 

[VikingFrog]

Murray had 12 TDS last year.  I don’t think he replaces Cooks production, but as a pickup, you hope he can be serviceable in picking up a TD here or there in your flex spot. If he becomes a true RB2 then you are getting better value than I would expect. 

 

[TheAssassin]

See now you're confusing opportunity with future performance. The important thing is not so much future performance, but guaranteed future usage. If I gave you a choice of two backs, one will get 7-8  touches vs. bad defenses only between the 20s, and another back that will get 25 touches vs. top defenses all over the field, which would you want? Volume and opportunity share is what you're looking for first and foremost.

Honestly, I'd choose C, pick up an upside TE or WR.  Whoever picks up Gallman will probably drop him during that bad stretch.

 

[hamsterdam]

I think Collins has more upside than some believe.

I think it's possible he performs well enough that he takes some snaps away from Allen. Collins got 2 targets last week in his limited snaps, so its' not like he'll be getting 0 receptions.

Team wants to run the ball, needs a spark on offense, and the kid has shown his talent. He actually looks good running the ball. Call it flukey if you want ,but he's the only lotto ticket back that has shown that he can produce over a string of games.

He could become a high RB2. Even if he falls into the middle of the extremes (run away with the job / fumbles the job away), I think it'll look similar or a bit better 2016 Rob Kelley numbers, which is definitely worth a roster spot and adds low RB2 / Flex value.