Welker to Denver (1 Viewer)

[Toad_1234]

Serious question - what will the compensatory pick awarded for losing Welker? A 4th? So in reality it is Amendola and a 4th round for losing Welker right? Possibly a 5th?

 

[parrot]

The difference in these contracts is that the Patriots have Amendola signed from age 30-32 at a relative cheap rate of $6M. That certainly has some value but I think they gave up a lot in the short-term in the hopes that Amendola has a long, healthy career.

I think I would have rather paid a little more and kept Welker since he has been a dependable producer. He hasn't missed hardly any games in his time with NE if any! I think that is worth a little bit more. Amendola has his own medical staff following him around. Either way, I think Gronk and Hernandez will be monsters. Belicheck is a genius, but maybe he's out-smarting himself on this one.

Welker blew an ACL not that long ago. He was just smart enough to blow it in the last regular season game.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Serious question - what will the compensatory pick awarded for losing Welker? A 4th? So in reality it is Amendola and a 4th round for losing Welker right? Possibly a 5th?

Doesn't work that way. Signing Amendola to a similar/greater contract negates any compensatory pick that they would have received from losing Welker. Besides, with the contract Welker signed, they probably wouldn't have gotten anything better than a 6th or 7th anyway.

 

[Toad_1234]

Serious question - what will the compensatory pick awarded for losing Welker? A 4th? So in reality it is Amendola and a 4th round for losing Welker right? Possibly a 5th?

Doesn't work that way. Signing Amendola to a similar/greater contract negates any compensatory pick that they would have received from losing Welker. Besides, with the contract Welker signed, they probably wouldn't have gotten anything better than a 6th or 7th anyway.

K THX

 

[cstu]

He already had a massive TD/target ratio - 13 TD's on 124 targets. I didn't check everyone but that might have been the highest in the league.

And???In general I see their offense being more efficient, more scoring opportunities.

*And* there's no way he's scoring more TDs on fewer targets. His TD/target ratio was already unsustainable, particularly for a medium-sized receiver.

It's been the same since he was with Orton and Tebow.

2012 - 10.5% TD/target2011 - 8.5% TD/targetI would put money on him not getting more than 10 TD's this year.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this:

Demaryius - 12

Decker - 8

Welker - 8

TEs - 7/8

RBs - 4/5

4th/5th WR - 1

The scary thing is, all three WRs can go deep or take short passes and turn them into long gainers. Even Welker is quick enough to get behind coverage on occasion and make a big play (see the TD against Miami two years ago or the long catch vs. the Ravens in the 4th quarter of the AFCCG two months ago just before Brady's batted ball/INT midway through the 4th). So, it is not as simple as Thomas always going deep, Welker working underneath/the middle, etc. They can move all of them around a lot since they can all make different kinds of plays.

 

[David Yudkin]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

 

[Bamac]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

Agree it's optimistic, but this is probably the best trio of receivers he's played with in one year.

 

[ghostguy123]

He already had a massive TD/target ratio - 13 TD's on 124 targets. I didn't check everyone but that might have been the highest in the league.

And???In general I see their offense being more efficient, more scoring opportunities.

*And* there's no way he's scoring more TDs on fewer targets. His TD/target ratio was already unsustainable, particularly for a medium-sized receiver.

It's been the same since he was with Orton and Tebow.

2012 - 10.5% TD/target2011 - 8.5% TD/targetI would put money on him not getting more than 10 TD's this year.

"same" as in very high ratio. Of course it will be better with Manning as opposed to trash in Tebow and Orton.I would bet money on 10+ if healthy all year, and pretty easily

 

[Ghost Rider]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

Agree it's optimistic, but this is probably the best trio of receivers he's played with in one year.

Yep. Plus, I figure Welker can get to 8 since the Broncos are likely to throw a lot in the red zone, depending on how their RB situation pans out. As much as the Patriots have thrown over the years, they always have a lot of rushing touchdowns, which often took TD chances away from the receivers. I have always been outspoken about how Welker doesn't score enough, given the number of targets he always gets, but he should be able to get 7-8 playing with Peyton in that offense and with those other WRs.

 

[The Comedian]

The bottom line is they (or should I say he) didn't want Welker back. Whether it's because of personal issue, a thought that Welker is about to go over a cliff, or thinking Amendola could be better, it doesn't really matter because it's probably a combination of all three.

The two years @ $10 million offer is asking him to eat a bowl of crap. It's not an offer that you expected to be taken, it's an offer that says "c-ya."

Right or wrong, love him or hate him, Belichick just didnt' want to keep him. I think it's a mistake, probably a bigger mistake than any other player they've let go because at least those guys were going for big $ elsewhere. But Belichick doesn't want him, bottom line.

If he'd participated in negotiations genuinely and matched Denver's offer of 2 years @ $12 million, everyone would have called him a genius for signing Welker to a short-term deal for ridiculously low money. He knows that. He genuinely does not give two ####s what anyone else thinks.

 

[SSOG]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

The only season Manning had three 8+ score receivers was also the only season Manning threw for 40+ TDs. If we're accepting the premise that Manning will get 40 scores next year, I don't think projecting Welker for 8 of them is that unrealistic.

 

[David Yudkin]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

The only season Manning had three 8+ score receivers was also the only season Manning threw for 40+ TDs. If we're accepting the premise that Manning will get 40 scores next year, I don't think projecting Welker for 8 of them is that unrealistic.

We shall see. That's why they play the games . . .

 

[GregR]

Serious question - what will the compensatory pick awarded for losing Welker? A 4th? So in reality it is Amendola and a 4th round for losing Welker right? Possibly a 5th?

Doesn't work that way. Signing Amendola to a similar/greater contract negates any compensatory pick that they would have received from losing Welker. Besides, with the contract Welker signed, they probably wouldn't have gotten anything better than a 6th or 7th anyway.

Kitrick got the important part... each free agent signed (above vet minimum) cancels out one free agent lost, so it's moot. As for the pick that could have been gained, it is mostly based on average salary though other things like playing time and postseason honors can change it, so it's an inexact range without knowing the exact formula. But it's roughly:

As far as some actual numbers, in 2009:3rd round comp players had signed for at least $6.5 million per season4th rounders signed for $4.8 million to $6 million5th rounders signed for $4 million to $5 million6th rounders signed for $2.7 million to $3.9 million7th rounders signed for less than $2.65 million per season.Those figures seem to change with the cap. The cap in 2009 was $123m, and this year is also $123m. So those should be decent numbers to work from.

So Welker's $6m average would probably have made him worth a 4th round pick.

 

[DropKick]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

Agree it's optimistic, but this is probably the best trio of receivers he's played with in one year.

Who? Manning or Welker? I think Manning had Harrison, Wayne, Stokely and Dallas Clark together. And Welker was paired with Moss and {insert name} in 2007. In that prolific offense, Welker scored 8 TDs but was also 6 years younger.

 

[tim_whatley]

Late to this party but I think Welker's targets and catches go down a but but his yards stay about the same and better yet his TDs increase. He wasn't looked at much in the RZ for the Pats I suspect that will improve somewhat in DEN it almost has to based on his TD to Catch ratio in NE.

 

[Bamac]

Peyton threw 37 TDs in 2012, and with having a rough start thanks to getting to know his new team plus a tough early schedule, but I think 40-42 TDs in 2013 is more than reasonable to expect, with the breakdown looking like this: Demaryius - 12Decker - 8Welker - 8TEs - 7/8RBs - 4/54th/5th WR - 1

8 for Welker seems a bit high. He had that many twice in 6 years in NE. In 13 years, Manning had 3 players with 8 TD receptions in the same season once.

Agree it's optimistic, but this is probably the best trio of receivers he's played with in one year.

Who? Manning or Welker? I think Manning had Harrison, Wayne, Stokely and Dallas Clark together. And Welker was paired with Moss and {insert name} in 2007. In that prolific offense, Welker scored 8 TDs but was also 6 years younger.

Manning. This is just from memory, but I'm a big Colts fan. I don't think Harrison and Wayne played together in their primes. And I'd take Welker, even at his age, over Stokley/Clark. If you want to talk about players who were a product of the system/QB, Stokley and Clark are high on the list.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would say at this moment, Thomas-Decker-welker is better than any three WRs Manning ever played with at any one given time.

When Harrison was in his prime, Wayne was not.

 

[SacramentoBob]

I would say at this moment, Thomas-Decker-welker is better than any three WRs Manning ever played with at any one given time. When Harrison was in his prime, Wayne was not.

Is Manning as good of a QB as when he played with the Colts trio?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I would say at this moment, Thomas-Decker-welker is better than any three WRs Manning ever played with at any one given time. When Harrison was in his prime, Wayne was not.

I agree with the first part, but as for the second statement, Harrison's prime lasted a long time, and Wayne's prime started in 2004, so I would say that, yes, Harrison and Wayne did play together when both were in their prime. 2004:Harrison 86-1,113-15Wayne 77-1,210-122005:Harrison 82-1,146-12Wayne 83-1,055-52006:Harrison 95-1,366-12Wayne 86-1,310-9

 

[Bamac]

I would say at this moment, Thomas-Decker-welker is better than any three WRs Manning ever played with at any one given time. When Harrison was in his prime, Wayne was not.

Is Manning as good of a QB as when he played with the Colts trio?

No, but it's close. His main advantage is mental, and he's as sharp as ever.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would say at this moment, Thomas-Decker-welker is better than any three WRs Manning ever played with at any one given time. When Harrison was in his prime, Wayne was not.

Is Manning as good of a QB as when he played with the Colts trio?

No. What's your point?

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Peyton Manning says the Broncos will use some of the same routes Wes Welker ran in New England.
"I’d be lying if I told you we have not studied what worked well for Wes in New England," Manning said. "There’s certain pass patterns and certain things that he’s done so well for so long, you’d be crazy not to copy some of those and bring those to your offense." It's not surprising that the Broncos will be integrating some of Welker's staple plays, just that they're willing to admit it. No one has caught more passes than Welker over the past six seasons.


Source: denverbroncos.com

 

[meyerj31]

Late to this party but I think Welker's targets and catches go down a but but his yards stay about the same and better yet his TDs increase. He wasn't looked at much in the RZ for the Pats I suspect that will improve somewhat in DEN it almost has to based on his TD to Catch ratio in NE.

Why? Thomas and Decker are two of the best red-zone targets in the NFL, and they have a beefy offensive line with a highly drafted young running back. If anything, those little bubble screens from which Welker scored are going away and he'll have to score all of his TDs from catch and runs 20 yards out. I wouldn't count on him scoring more than a 3 TDs all year.

 

[Faust]

Wes Welker: Peyton Manning 'everything you thought'

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

While Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws to a flock of strangers in New England, his former top target, Wes Welker, is getting chummy with Peyton Manning.

Welker, who caught 118 balls from Brady last season, has joined a deep group of Denver Broncos wide receivers that includes Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Welker's targets in the slot are bound to drop this season, but Manning is planning to make good use of Brady's old friend.

"I'd be lying if I told you we have not studied what worked well for Wes in New England," Manning told the team's official site. "There's certain pass patterns and certain things that he's done so well for so long, you'd be crazy not to copy some of those and bring those to your offense."

Welker -- shifting from one Hall of Fame-worthy passer to the next -- doesn't appear to regret his move west.

"It's everything you thought," Welker said of Manning. "The balls are just so accurate and you come out of your break and the ball is just there. It's almost like a long handoff sometimes. He definitely makes it easy on you."

Welker boasts an NFL-record five seasons with at least 100 receptions. He'll be challenged to make it six, but it will be fascinating to watch the chemistry build with Manning.

For film junkies, the fun comes in seeing how Welker is used in the scheme, and what remnants of the Patriots' attack ultimately bubble up in Denver. Considering the dwindling number of reliable pass-catchers in New England, it's footage Patriots fans might want to avoid.

Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.