Welker's value without Brady ? (1 Viewer)

[bulger2holt]

Obviousely it isn't the same with Brady, but I wonder if he benefits from alot of underneath stuff still ? Maybe 80 catches instead of 100 ? The team still likes to pass and Moss can't catch them all. I think Moss gets hurt the most from the loss of Brady.

 

[David Yudkin]

I suspect the Pats will reduce their passing attempts by 25-30%. They will want Cassell to not turn the ball over, score a couple times a game, throw in a FG or two, and be happy with 20 points and no turnovers. More running to keep the defense off the field, grind out some first downs, and play tough defense.

At least that's what the model will probably be, whether that works or not is another story. As for Welker, I think yesterday will be pretty "normal" for him. 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards with an occasional bigger day.

 

[thehornet]

how things change in a hurry.

my projections now: 65-900-4

 

[Resident A]

Welker was roster-worthy when he was in Miami despite having the worst QBs the NFL has to offer, in addition to complete garbage around him. It can't be any worse for him now.

Without Brady, his floor is 60 catches & 4TD. His ceiling is a midrange WR2. I predict he'll be a startable WR3.

 

[David Yudkin]

how things change in a hurry.my projections now: 65-900-4

I don't see Welker with a nearly 14 yard per catch average.

 

[KellysHeroes]

The Pat WRs will be fine... Cassel looked OK yesterday.

Wes should be good for 70 Recs.

 

[GroveDiesel]

IMO, he's hurt more than any other WR for the Pats. His tremendous success was built on timing, QB accuracy and being on the same page as Brady when reading the defenses. Some defenders last year thought that Welker wasn't even running routes based on play calls. He and Brady would just read the defense at the line and adjust Welker's route to what worked best. No way does Cassel step in there and replicate that.

 

[thehornet]

how things change in a hurry.my projections now: 65-900-4

I don't see Welker with a nearly 14 yard per catch average.

good point. i looked at it quickly. I wouldn't expect more than 70 receptions. Alter his YPC accordingly. I think he was right around 10.5 last year.

 

[fightingillini]

IMO, he's hurt more than any other WR for the Pats. His tremendous success was built on timing, QB accuracy and being on the same page as Brady when reading the defenses. Some defenders last year thought that Welker wasn't even running routes based on play calls. He and Brady would just read the defense at the line and adjust Welker's route to what worked best. No way does Cassel step in there and replicate that.

I agree. Cassel will most likely throw jump balls to Moss.....Moss still will catch a lot TD passes, albeit his catches and yards should decrease. With Welker, he needs the catches to keep his value.....at about 10-11 YPC, he drops to a WR3 level.

 

[Banger]

The Pat WRs will be fine... Cassel looked OK yesterday.Wes should be good for 70 Recs.

I'm not sure how a 25-30% drop in receptions is fine. He goes from a good WR2 to a 750 yard 5 td wr. Probably good for WR40. That's not good....

 

[bucsbaby]

I had him ahead of jennings as my #3 WR (Colston, Marshall). I am now bumping Jennings to #3 (we start 3 WR, .5 ppr) so I can evaluate how Welker will play with Brady out. If he performs better than Jennings, he will get inserted back in after about 2 weeks. If not, he will be my bye-week filler.

 

[EaglesNest]

I was just wonder about Welker's value without Brady and then came across this thread...

Someone in my league put him on the trading block as of a few days ago and I think expected to get something pretty decent in return.

I wouldn't go near it now though. Randy Moss owners should still be fine...but Welker's numbers will probably drop dramatically.

 

[gregjcross]

I was just wonder about Welker's value without Brady and then came across this thread...Someone in my league put him on the trading block as of a few days ago and I think expected to get something pretty decent in return. I wouldn't go near it now though. Randy Moss owners should still be fine...but Welker's numbers will probably drop dramatically.

Ok, put yourself in the place of an opposing defensive coordinator. You are not giong to put 2 or even 3 guys on Moss's side of the field or just double him with brackets? Is the Patriots running game a huge threat ? (I dont think so) Is their TE? No. Is Cassell? Remains to be seen.But, if preseason means something, all of them are going to suffer.

 

[Penguin]

The Pat WRs will be fine... Cassel looked OK yesterday.Wes should be good for 70 Recs.

That's about a 40% drop in receptions from last year, not exactly what people that drafted Welker were expecting.

 

[HellToupee]

I was just wonder about Welker's value without Brady and then came across this thread...Someone in my league put him on the trading block as of a few days ago and I think expected to get something pretty decent in return. I wouldn't go near it now though. ...but Welker's numbers will probably drop dramatically.

Definitely think Welker's value is going to hold up. I think the Patriots will pound the ball a lot and throw plenty of short passes like when Brady 1st started

 

[thecardiackid]

If you think it's bad for Welker (I have him in a dynasty league too - and agree his projections take AT LEAST a 25% drop now) - imagine how the Gaffney hopefuls are feeling... (one of them too)

 

[Beerguzzler]

Cassell hasn't started a football game since HIGH SCHOOL. He's pretty much been a career backup and really didn't show much on sunday that points to him being able to air it out consistently like Brady was expected to do so. Just being able to recognize defenses is gonna be difficult for Cassell. I honestly wouldn't touch any Patriots, nor would I expect any consistent offensive production from them.

 

[JTM]

One word...dookie. If his name isn't Moss, I expect to see pedestrian numbers from him without Brady at the helm...

 

[Sabertooth]

I am probably dropping Welker for Eddie Royal. (Short benches so save it!)

 

[Browning51]

I all know is I am glad I didn't rely on him in my keeper league and picked up Plaxico.

 

[Tchula]

he did return punts week one. if he continues to do so, that can add a little to welker's value. NE still has the easiest schedule on paper in the NLF. the coaches are sold on cassel starting for now. I wont drop welker, but yeah he may ride the pine in my lineup for a couple weeks and be a bye week replacement.