Were Madden and Michaels right? (1 Viewer)

[JaxBill]

The point is moot but-

Am I the only one who strongly disagreed with Madden/Michaels for saying that the Seahawks should just kick the FG ASAP when they were down 11?

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part. If you leave yourself 30 seconds for the FG, who cares? You only have to go 30 yards or so (assuming you recover ~ your 45).

2) If you kick the FG first, you’re dead if you miss the 2-point conversion. If you get the TD first and the 2-point conversion fails, at least you know that you need to chuck it in the end zone if you recover.

 

[CalBear]

I think kicking the field goal is a lot better than what they did, which was throw two short passes in a row. You can't afford to spend 20-30 seconds scoring; I think they were at 37 seconds on the clock. If you kick the field goal and recover an onsides kick, you'll have 30 seconds to get 60 yards; that's a lot better than having 10 seconds to get 30 yards plus set up for a field goal.

I can see the argument for taking shots at the end zone from where they were, but not the argument for running eight-yard outs. If you run four pass plays, complete them all and get out of bounds each time, you'll be down to 13 seconds on the clock; you can't really afford to run more than two plays to get in the end zone.

In any case, their probability of winning was extremely low. But I think kicking the field goal has a higher win expectation than going for the TD.

 

[Sammy3469]

The point is moot but-

Am I the only one who strongly disagreed with Madden/Michaels for saying that the Seahawks should just kick the FG ASAP when they were down 11?

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part. If you leave yourself 30 seconds for the FG, who cares? You only have to go 30 yards or so (assuming you recover ~ your 45).

2) If you kick the FG first, you’re dead if you miss the 2-point conversion. If you get the TD first and the 2-point conversion fails, at least you know that you need to chuck it in the end zone if you recover.

The problem is they were out of timeouts. With about 30 seconds left, you're going to burn 10-15 seconds on the scoring play and onsides kick, leaving yourself with about 15 seconds to play with after the onsides kick. That's basically one pass play to try to get in FG range without a timeout. Very-very hard to do.If you kick the FG first, you can at least throw a couple of hail-marys at the end.

Neither scenario is very likely, but Madden had this one right.

 

[CrossEyed]

The point is moot but-

Am I the only one who strongly disagreed with Madden/Michaels for saying that the Seahawks should just kick the FG ASAP when they were down 11?

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part. If you leave yourself 30 seconds for the FG, who cares? You only have to go 30 yards or so (assuming you recover ~ your 45).

2) If you kick the FG first, you’re dead if you miss the 2-point conversion. If you get the TD first and the 2-point conversion fails, at least you know that you need to chuck it in the end zone if you recover.

The problem is they were out of timeouts. With about 30 seconds left, you're going to burn 10-15 seconds on the scoring play and onsides kick, leaving yourself with about 15 seconds to play with after the onsides kick. That's basically one pass play to try to get in FG range without a timeout. Very-very hard to do.If you kick the FG first, you can at least throw a couple of hail-marys at the end.

Neither scenario is very likely, but Madden had this one right.

I agree.

 

[dgreen]

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part.

The problem is, getting the hard part leaves them with almost no chance to get the easy part. The hard part is going to be hard regardless of which order you do it. The easy part becomes hard by putting it off until the end.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Holmgren's clock mismanagement made it moot. I don't get Holmgren's decision making process - you kick 54 and 50 yard attempts earlier in the game but now don't try from 42? - I think they really even should've kicked it on 3rd down to be honesty, especially given the wretchedly stupid play calling they did for the last, oh, 8 minutes or so.

-QG

 

[JaxBill]

1-10-SEA20 (1:51) M.Hasselbeck pass to J.Stevens to SEA 26 for 6 yards (J.Farrior, A.Smith). 2-4-SEA26 (1:28) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck pass to J.Jurevicius to PIT 39 for 35 yards (T.Polamalu). 1-10-PIT39 (1:05) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to J.Stevens. Ball thrown away. 2-10-PIT39 (1:00) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to M.Strong. 3-10-PIT39 52) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to B.Engram. 4-10-PIT39 47) M.Hasselbeck pass to B.Engram to PIT 26 for 13 yards (T.Polamalu). 1-10-PIT26 35) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck spiked the ball to stop the clock. 2-10-PIT26 34) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to S.Alexander (T.Carter). 3-10-PIT26 27) M.Hasselbeck pass to J.Stevens to PIT 23 for 3 yards (T.Carter). 4-7-PIT23 08) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to J.Stevens (B.McFadden).

IIRC, they were saying this when Seattle got to the 39 with a minute left. Yes, going for the 6-yard outs and not going for the end zone were terrible decisions, IMO, but they really didn't show what the coverage looked like.On that 3rd down play with 27 seconds left, there's no way anybody should have been shorter than the first down sticks. I think they should have been going downfield further and trying to get the TD first.By throwing underneath, it looks like they weren't sure they knew what they were trying to accomplish first.

 

[Lord of the Rings]

I wonder how much J. Brown's two missed field goals played into Holmgren's decision. Even though they were longer attempts, certainly their confidence (Holmgren's + Brown's) must have been shaken.

 

[CalBear]

1-10-SEA20 (1:51) M.Hasselbeck pass to J.Stevens to SEA 26 for 6 yards (J.Farrior, A.Smith).

2-4-SEA26 (1:28) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck pass to J.Jurevicius to PIT 39 for 35 yards (T.Polamalu).

1-10-PIT39 (1:05) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to J.Stevens. Ball thrown away.

2-10-PIT39 (1:00) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to M.Strong.

3-10-PIT39 52) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to B.Engram.

4-10-PIT39 47) M.Hasselbeck pass to B.Engram to PIT 26 for 13 yards (T.Polamalu).

1-10-PIT26 35) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck spiked the ball to stop the clock.

2-10-PIT26 34) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to S.Alexander (T.Carter).

3-10-PIT26 27) M.Hasselbeck pass to J.Stevens to PIT 23 for 3 yards (T.Carter).

4-7-PIT23 08) (No Huddle) M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete to J.Stevens (B.McFadden).

IIRC, they were saying this when Seattle got to the 39 with a minute left. Yes, going for the 6-yard outs and not going for the end zone were terrible decisions, IMO, but they really didn't show what the coverage looked like.

On that 3rd down play with 27 seconds left, there's no way anybody should have been shorter than the first down sticks.

I think they should have been going downfield further and trying to get the TD first.

By throwing underneath, it looks like they weren't sure they knew what they were trying to accomplish first.

I don't like it at the 39; that's a very low-percentage kick (56 yards). But after the first down at the 26, you have a makeable field goal and 34 seconds. If you make the field goal and get the onsides kick back with 30 seconds left, you are in as good shape as can be expected. Alternately, let's say from the 26 you throw three passes, getting 10 yards and out of bounds on the first two, and a TD on the third. Add the time for the onsides kick, and you are at your own 40 with only about 10 seconds left. You have one, or at most two plays to get 25 yards, stop the clock and set up for the field goal. Very low-percentage.

 

[NYCelt]

If Sea makes there I probbaly win $1,000. So yeah the booth was right.

 

[TommyGilmore]

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part. If you leave yourself 30 seconds for the FG, who cares?

But there was only 34 seconds left in the game anyway. The bottom line is that Seattle needed to score right away. Doesn't matter if it's a TD or FG, but they needed to score within the next 20 seconds (in order to give themselves enough time to recover an onside kick).You can try to spend those 20 seconds going for a TD, but you MUST throw it to the endzone. That's where Seattle went wrong.

 

[TommyGilmore]

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part.

The other problem with this line of thinking is that the 2nd score has to be a TD no matter what else happens. There's just no way that Seattle would have had time to kick a FG after recovering an onside kick.

 

[Warpig]

I would have kicked the field goal first. Then tried the onside. You never know what could happen. Pittsburgh could have fumbled or something then you'd have another chance. Look what happened in Indy. Pitt had it wrapped up then Bettis fumbles and it almost gets ran back for a TD. You never know what might happen. I would have taken the 3 points and tried the onside and hoped for a miracle.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

It doesn't matter which they try to do first

they had 34 seconds to get a td, conversion and FG

I think you get the TD first, unless you hit a fourth down.

withe attempt being 56 yards, I probably go fo it there.

if the FG attempt is under 50, i kick

advantages:

- if the two-point conversion fails, then you know you need to get a td on the second possession

- the TD will be slightly more likely on the first possession because the Stillers need to defend more field

-If you try to get the TD and fail, you have a plan B, whereas if you kick the FG, there is no plan B.

 

[UnknownCoach]

In order to get a field goal on the last play of the game, you have to be in field goal range. You can get a TD from anywhere on the field. So there is some sense to it but when you are close to the end zone, you normally take shots at it. Going for the zone 20-30 yards out 1st through 3rd down makes perfect sense. You could make 3 mini hail mary attempts first then kick it if its not caught or intercepted. Of course those 3 hail marys do take time off the clock and you might not have time to get back to field goal range. While the time kills, its easier to make the hail mary from 30 yards out than from 60 yards out. Its easier to get in field goal range than getting a hail mary later. Either way you need a field goal and a hail mary in a matter of seconds. The decision process is diffaculty vs time. The time says kick first. The diffaculty of completing the necessary plays says go for the end zone first while you are close and have 3 spareable downs. Either way is a good coaching decision.

What made no sense was short sideline routes with so little time remaining and needed two scores. No sense at all.

 

[CalBear]

It doesn't matter which they try to do first

they had 34 seconds to get a td, conversion and FG

I think you get the TD first, unless you hit a fourth down.

withe attempt being 56 yards, I probably go fo it there.

if the FG attempt is under 50, i kick

With 34 seconds left, the attempt would have been 43 yards.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

It doesn't matter which they try to do first

they had 34 seconds to get a td, conversion and FG

I think you get the TD first, unless you hit a fourth down.

withe attempt being 56 yards, I probably go fo it there.

if the FG attempt is under 50, i kick

With 34 seconds left, the attempt would have been 43 yards.

but when that 4th down came up, they didn't have time to send the kicking team out, so there was no FG opp. there. Throwing to the middle of the field short of the sticks basically killed that opp.and no I wouldn't kick on 3rd, I'd take a shot at the TD.

 

[CalBear]

It doesn't matter which they try to do first

they had 34 seconds to get a td, conversion and FG

I think you get the TD first, unless you hit a fourth down.

withe attempt being 56 yards, I probably go fo it there.

if the FG attempt is under 50, i kick

With 34 seconds left, the attempt would have been 43 yards.

but when that 4th down came up, they didn't have time to send the kicking team out, so there was no FG opp. there. Throwing to the middle of the field short of the sticks basically killed that opp.and no I wouldn't kick on 3rd, I'd take a shot at the TD.

After they got the first down at the 26 and spiked the ball, they had 34 seconds left.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

It doesn't matter which they try to do first

they had 34 seconds to get a td, conversion and FG

I think you get the TD first, unless you hit a fourth down.

withe attempt being 56 yards, I probably go fo it there.

if the FG attempt is under 50, i kick

With 34 seconds left, the attempt would have been 43 yards.

but when that 4th down came up, they didn't have time to send the kicking team out, so there was no FG opp. there. Throwing to the middle of the field short of the sticks basically killed that opp.and no I wouldn't kick on 3rd, I'd take a shot at the TD.

After they got the first down at the 26 and spiked the ball, they had 34 seconds left.

re-read the bold

 

[JayMan]

I thought I agreed with Madden/Michaels in the fisrt place: FG then TD... but when you think about it, since they were down 11 and not 10... they had to go for the TD first, then the FG

If you are down 10 - you kick it... down 7... on-side and probably a hail mary (so, it's possible to tie even if you are at your own 45 on the last play of the game)... this would have been the correct thinking...

But, down 11... you have to go for the TD first... because of the 2pt conversion - if you get it, you are down 3 - fine... but if you miss the 2pt convert, you are down 5 - and still able to win it if your recover the onside kick...

If you go for the FG first - you then are down 8 - and only have one chance to get the TD and the 2pt convert...

My two cents...

 

[AB in DC]

I thought I agreed with Madden/Michaels in the fisrt place: FG then TD... but when you think about it, since they were down 11 and not 10... they had to go for the TD first, then the FG

If you are down 10 - you kick it... down 7... on-side and probably a hail mary (so, it's possible to tie even if you are at your own 45 on the last play of the game)... this would have been the correct thinking...

But, down 11... you have to go for the TD first... because of the 2pt conversion - if you get it, you are down 3 - fine... but if you miss the 2pt convert, you are down 5 - and still able to win it if your recover the onside kick...

If you go for the FG first - you then are down 8 - and only have one chance to get the TD and the 2pt convert...

My two cents...

Come on, the odds of getting TWO touchdowns there is minuscule. You basically have to assume TD+conversion and FG in some order.If you take the time to score a TD first, you won't have time get into FG range and make a kick. So you're stuck with the minuscule change of two TDs. If you take the FG first, you'll have a little time to get down the field before taking shots at the end zone.

 

[Gargoylez]

Either way you have to score. The Seahawks mismanagement of the game was bad. Especially the last minute in the 2nd quarter.

 

[inca911]

You either kick the FG or only go for the end zone. Both are valid arguments. The problem was Seattle did neither of these, choosing to go with the short dumpoffs, and therefore gave themselves no chance of winning.

The TD-first approach allows for some reaction if the 2pt conversion is missed.

The FG-first approach means you must get the 2pt conversion, but does save you some time.

I'd go for the end zone at least twice, then kick the FG.

 

[Sinrman]

I agreed with them in that they should have gone for a FG. Get the points, get a tad bit of momentum. Then go for the tie. I would have taken a shot or two at the end zone before trying the FG, but if the TD tries failed, I would go for that FG and get some points. Either way, you're down two scores, so you can't entirely fault them for shooting for the end zone the rest of the way.

 

[Class Dismissed]

Why?......because Holgrem was brimming with confidence in Josh Brown at that point of the game.

 

[cstu]

The point is moot but-

Am I the only one who strongly disagreed with Madden/Michaels for saying that the Seahawks should just kick the FG ASAP when they were down 11?

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part. If you leave yourself 30 seconds for the FG, who cares? You only have to go 30 yards or so (assuming you recover ~ your 45).

2) If you kick the FG first, you’re dead if you miss the 2-point conversion. If you get the TD first and the 2-point conversion fails, at least you know that you need to chuck it in the end zone if you recover.

No, they were 100% right. The reasoning is that you can throw a hail mary to win the game from 80 yards away, but you're not going to kick a 90 yard FG.

 

[cstu]

Why?......because Holgrem was brimming with confidence in Josh Brown at that point of the game.

I don't think he lacked confidence in Brown - he missed two 50+ yard FG's by a total of less than 5 feet with plenty of distance.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

Why would anybody think that the TD would take less time if you did it 2nd?

 

[bagger.]

The point is moot but-

Am I the only one who strongly disagreed with Madden/Michaels for saying that the Seahawks should just kick the FG ASAP when they were down 11?

1) You have to get at least one TD, go get it first since it’s the hardest part. If you leave yourself 30 seconds for the FG, who cares? You only have to go 30 yards or so (assuming you recover ~ your 45).

2) If you kick the FG first, you’re dead if you miss the 2-point conversion. If you get the TD first and the 2-point conversion fails, at least you know that you need to chuck it in the end zone if you recover.

yes, they were right.in that scenario there were a few miracle plays that had to happen - FG, , onsides, and TD in 34 seconds.

you don't have the luxury to see if your 2 point conv works the first time.

 

[TommyGilmore]

Why would anybody think that the TD would take less time if you did it 2nd?

Because if you are trying to kick a FG at the end of the game, you're going to need at least 10 seconds on the clock (because you'll have to run a ~20-yard pass play to get in FG position). But you only need 1 second on the clock to attempt a hail mary.

 

[CalBear]

Why would anybody think that the TD would take less time if you did it 2nd?

Because if you are trying to kick a FG at the end of the game, you're going to need at least 10 seconds on the clock (because you'll have to run a ~20-yard pass play to get in FG position). But you only need 1 second on the clock to attempt a hail mary.

Plus, you'll need to get out of bounds after your pass play, while the TD can come in the middle of the field.