David Yudkin
Footballguy
Martz was first the QB coach and then a WR coach for the Rams. His first year as a WR coach and Bruce went from 21-272-3 to 119-1,781-13. Not sure we can call that pre-Martz.
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We're Missing the Boat on these QBs (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter podunker
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burd
Footballguy
two questions on Alex Smith:
1) He had a pretty good 2006 season w/ Norv Turner on the coaching staff. Eventhough Smith regressed in 2007, the progress he made working in 2006 says to me that he may have the talent to be a good QB. You can't totally fault Smith if the team doesn't provide the tools necessary to succeed and I'd consider coaches in this category. Basically, I feel that in the right system, Smith can be a good QB. The question remains though .. is this newest system he's in the right system for him?
2) A big reason why the niners struggled last year was OL protection. Gore had a hard time getting yardage and the QBs were sacked more than any other team. Now w/ Martz running the show and knowing that he minimizes QB protection in favor of more offensive looks, the question remains ... will Smith (and other SF QBs) survive the season behind an inferior and undermanned OL?
that being said, i'd take a chance on Smith but only if I can draft him at value. The thing is that when the Martz is attached to a QB, people tend to think that said QB is going to rewrite the record books. basically, don't expect him to fall too much.
1) He had a pretty good 2006 season w/ Norv Turner on the coaching staff. Eventhough Smith regressed in 2007, the progress he made working in 2006 says to me that he may have the talent to be a good QB. You can't totally fault Smith if the team doesn't provide the tools necessary to succeed and I'd consider coaches in this category. Basically, I feel that in the right system, Smith can be a good QB. The question remains though .. is this newest system he's in the right system for him?
2) A big reason why the niners struggled last year was OL protection. Gore had a hard time getting yardage and the QBs were sacked more than any other team. Now w/ Martz running the show and knowing that he minimizes QB protection in favor of more offensive looks, the question remains ... will Smith (and other SF QBs) survive the season behind an inferior and undermanned OL?
that being said, i'd take a chance on Smith but only if I can draft him at value. The thing is that when the Martz is attached to a QB, people tend to think that said QB is going to rewrite the record books. basically, don't expect him to fall too much.
I am actually looking real hard at this right now and hopefully much more will get cleared up in the preseason.....however I disagree with the last part of your comment...to me some of the value iss lost when you have to keep an eye on this every week, and who knows who will start from week to week.....having your QB pulled half way through a game just kills you....if Brady has a bad first half, he WILL play the second half.....can't be said right now in AZ......and getting pulled when your team is in the hurry up and looking to score, that's fantasy money time and your guy can't run the 2 minute offense.....not good....FUBAR said:
so while the stats may add up at the end of the year to top 12 stats, you are losing games each week because you can only start one....so getting QB1 production out of two guys in the 12th and 13th rounds is not value and not $$$....and who really wants to handcuff if they don't have too....the only $$$ will be what you lose if you take both of these guys back to back in the 12th and 13th......the only $$$ to be made is if and when one guy gets the job.....
my gut says Warner gets the job......and I own ML is a league where I have to keep him for 3 years....
Max Power
Footballguy
Now some want to believe that Warner, Bulger and Kitna owe thier success to Martz? Obviously all 3 of these guy had some degree of talent before Martz came along. Now I am sure Martz did help them out a bit along the way, but he by no mean made them. Bulger had his best season when Martz was gone.People all focus on the positive numbers a Martz QB can produce, but fail to look at the all around team. In the last two season Kitna has tossed for over 8,000 with 39TDs, 42 Ints, & 114 sacks. A 31st and 32ranked Rushing Offense. Lets also toss on that 10W-22L record. How can I not be impressed?
I wish I could dig up a stat on QB concussions in the Martz system. I have no doubt he leads the league in that category.
Come on guys...Lets look at the big picture here. The 08 49ers are the not the 99 Rams. If you expect Smith or any other 49er QB to put up QB1 numbers, you might as well Pencil in Gore as a low end RB2. If this team plans on winning games it needs to ride Gore, not throw the ball 40 times a game. If I can see this...I assume Nolan can as well.
massraider
Footballguy
Does you league deduct points from the QB for wins and losses? Or a bad rushing day?Seems to me playing for a team with a bad running game, and perpetually losing has led to some big days for QBs.Now some want to believe that Warner, Bulger and Kitna owe thier success to Martz? Obviously all 3 of these guy had some degree of talent before Martz came along. Now I am sure Martz did help them out a bit along the way, but he by no mean made them. Bulger had his best season when Martz was gone. People all focus on the positive numbers a Martz QB can produce, but fail to look at the all around team. In the last two season Kitna has tossed for over 8,000 with 39TDs, 42 Ints, & 114 sacks. A 31st and 32ranked Rushing Offense. Lets also toss on that 10W-22L record. How can I not be impressed?
Max Power
Footballguy
Its more a knock on Martz than a QB scoring fantasy points. I don't get all this Martz love. Martz's system is overrated in the real world. Sure us fantasy guys like it, but it hasn't been getting the job done for some time now in the NFL.Does you league deduct points from the QB for wins and losses? Or a bad rushing day?Seems to me playing for a team with a bad running game, and perpetually losing has led to some big days for QBs.Now some want to believe that Warner, Bulger and Kitna owe thier success to Martz? Obviously all 3 of these guy had some degree of talent before Martz came along. Now I am sure Martz did help them out a bit along the way, but he by no mean made them. Bulger had his best season when Martz was gone. People all focus on the positive numbers a Martz QB can produce, but fail to look at the all around team. In the last two season Kitna has tossed for over 8,000 with 39TDs, 42 Ints, & 114 sacks. A 31st and 32ranked Rushing Offense. Lets also toss on that 10W-22L record. How can I not be impressed?
I already have Gore pencilled in as a low end RB2. I don't expect QB1 numbers from Smith though.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Do you expect the coaching staff to continue that from last year? They want someone to be the sure-starter, if Leinart can't do it, Warner will. I suppose there's risk, but I'm not waiting until the 12th to draft a QB, so if that does continue, I'll start the first guy I drafted. BUT, if I'm right, and one does play the vast majority of the game, it is $$$. It's risk, but that's the 12th/13th rounds.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I somehow forgot that he was the WR coach there.
podunker
Footballguy
Well I see we have got a little discussion going on this. I'll just comment on a few things. First of all, I don't love Martz. ha ha! Anyway, I'm just talking about his system in a fantasy perspective. I don't necessarily think the 49ers are going to be any better or any worse as a team. I don't know what impact he'll have on their win/loss record. My guess is they will be about the same. Which means they will be behind enough that they are going to have to pass the ball. Not that it really matters, because they were going to pass it anyway. If you think Hill is the guy go with him, it's that simple. I think if you wait until they start clicking in week 2 or 3, you might be too late.
I've read some comments on Kitna before Martz. Let's face it, he had very little fantasy value before Martz, and to tell you the truth, he won't have much value after Martz.
Like I said I'm not telling you to take them as your #1, even though I think they could end up producing good numbers. A sound stategy would be to take them late in the draft and hope I'm right about them. When they start producing good numbers start looking for a team that has lost a QB or has one not producing and try to make a trade to upgrade your team. It always happens every year, someone will need a QB.
I still believe Leinart or Warner will start for some fantasy teams this year. They have too much talent around them not to produce. Warner led me to a championship last year.
As for Young, don't forget his rushing yards and TDs, that's what makes him valueable.
I've read some comments on Kitna before Martz. Let's face it, he had very little fantasy value before Martz, and to tell you the truth, he won't have much value after Martz.
Like I said I'm not telling you to take them as your #1, even though I think they could end up producing good numbers. A sound stategy would be to take them late in the draft and hope I'm right about them. When they start producing good numbers start looking for a team that has lost a QB or has one not producing and try to make a trade to upgrade your team. It always happens every year, someone will need a QB.
I still believe Leinart or Warner will start for some fantasy teams this year. They have too much talent around them not to produce. Warner led me to a championship last year.
As for Young, don't forget his rushing yards and TDs, that's what makes him valueable.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
FWIW, in the 5 seasons Kitna started 15 or more games, he was no lower than #24, with 2 top 10 seasons.
podunker
Footballguy
I'll throw out another thing on this. There is usually some turnover at the top 12 QB slots each year. I think Hicks wrote an article about this last year. Seems like the top 6 have a 70% chance of staying startable the next year, and 7-12 have something like a 40% chance of staying in the top 12 the next year. I know names like Favre, Hasselbeck, Anderson, Cutler, Warner were not in a lot of preseason top 12 list, but ended up there when the year was done. Seems like Young and Leinart were in some preseason top 12s last year also. Either way, there will be some turnover, and these three guys have a great chance to crack the top 12 IMO!
Chairshot
Footballguy
The Martz love comes from what he has done for QBs in fantasy. I don't think anyone is talking about real world NFL.That said, if we *were* to talk real world NFL: saying that he hasn't been getting the job done for "some time now" seems very inaccurate.It was only 3 seasons ago that Martz had his health problems and was fired from the Rams. That year, 2005, the Rams were the 11th overall offense in the league.In 2006, he went to the Lions. The Lions were ranked 28th overall in offense in 2005 (4319 yards and 254 points for the year). In 2006 they ranked 21st overall (4949 yards and 305 points). And in 2007 they went up to 16th overall (5166 yards and 346 points). That's with a horrible O line and with their only good RB (Kevin Jones) missing a number of games and playing quite a few more at much less then 100%. Roy Williams missed 4 games last year and they still got better then the year before. He added basically 800 yards of offense and almost 100 points by swapping Joey Harrington for Jon Kitna. It's not really a stretch to think that if Martz had stayed and you have a healthy Kevin Jones, Roy Williams and Calvin Williams that the Lions could have been a boarder line top 10 NFL offense this year.I'm just saying, the Lions were awful before Martz showed up. Like really, really bad. And they had been horrible for years. The Lions have only finished better then 16th over all one time since Barry Sanders left (1998; they were 15th). We are talking like 10+ years of bottom third type offense. The only "upgrade" Martz made (if you even want to call it that) was Kitna. And I'm not sure how much of an upgrade people considered him going into that 2006 season.No coach can make crappy players into good players. You can't "coach" talent into someone. But, I have to say, if any coach has earned the "water into wine" label, at least offensively, it's Martz.
stevegamer
Footballguy
I think Alex Smith is being overhyped here, but I know why there's excitement.
Potential needs to be fulfilled. And once you've achieved something, you clearly have/had a ton of potential. Warner had (I think) a MVP year, 1st-team All-Pro Qb twice, and was the #1 QB in FF twice, and he started his career late. For Warner to "not hold a candle" to Smith, we're talking about 3-4 #1 QB finishes in fantasy some other solid years, and a significant number more individual awards.I will gladly take the under on Smith finishing as the #1 QB in all of FF 2 times - he needs to do at least that and a few top-10's to eclipse Warner.
Issac Bruce is a serious HoF contender when his career is done, however, he's a fraction of what he once was in St Louis during the "Greatest Show on Turf".Torry Holt > Roy Williams > pick one of Johnson & BattleBruce Stl > Calvin Johnson > Bruce SFFaulk > Gore > Detroit RBRams OL >>>> SF OL or Detroit OL (both are bad, and not close to the Rams line)SF TE's > Rams TE's > Detroit TE'sTo me that looks like 1 "win" for the 49ers and 3 "losses" for the 49ers, with one middle result at RB. For the 49ers to beat the Rams talent level right out of the chute, Smith must be significantly better than Warner. I really, really don't see that.The real question is can the 49ers passing game be Lions-level good, and I think they can do that, but not this year - since I think they have talent holes in too many places, especially WR.The guy I'm very interested to see how this effects is Michael Robinson. He played QB, WR, & RB at Penn State. Martz has done a lot with under-the-radar guys before, and this guys isn't a converted safety, he'd be converted from RB.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
How many QBs have started 15 or more games and ranked lower than 24 in the past 10 years?
FUBAR
Footballguy
2 top 10 seasons, and I'm just saying he has more than "very little" fantasy value. Not a lot, granted, but he didn't have a lot in Detroit either.
Max Power
Footballguy
It wasn't like Martz could do much worse when he showed up in Detroit. The only place to go was up. Martz runs a very gimmicky Offense. It is a nice scheme to get a sub-par team competative, but it end there. This is not a style offense that will thrive in the playoffs without superior talent. The biggest issue I have with the guy is lack of ball control. Every game has to be a shoot out in his world. Blame the D if you must, but during the Martz stint in Detroit his offense ranked 31st both years in time of possesion, and was among league leaders in turnovers and QB sacks. Now we have a D unit who is on the field more than it should be and probably doesn't have the best starting field position to begin with. Not that this is all Martz's fault, but he is not helping with his play calling. So ultimatly his playcalling is NOT setting his team up to win.
I think what he is trying to say is that it may be hard NOT to finish in the top 24 if you start 15 of 16 games.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
It's not a precise answer, but last year the #24 QB scored 143 points. In the last 10 years, here were the QBs that played in 15 or more games and scored 143 or fewer points (although I doubt they were starters).Kordell Stewart 125.00 Mike Tomczak 123.05 Kyle Orton 120.85 Cade McNown 111.25 Damon Huard 104.80 Doug Pederson 86.10
FUBAR
Footballguy
thanks, I get it. How does that refute that Kitna had at least marginal value? His value didn't go up all that much when he was in Detroit, compared to his last starting gig, although it was perceived to. Last year as starter in Cincy = #7 QB. Best year in Detroit = #6 QB, his FF points only increased by 8 on the year, he threw 5 less TDs, 7 more INTs, and 617 more yards. Martz did not "make him relevant" or "water into wine" here.
Lobo237
Footballguy
I've never been a fan of Smith. I've always thought he was too much a product of Urban Meyer's spread offense. That said his struggles haven't been all his fault. He's had mediocre targets to throw to at best, the ol hasn't been good, he's been injured, and oh yeah entering his 4th year in the league he's on his 4th OC, learning his 4th offensive system. I think a lot of qb's would struggle in that situation. Not saying he'll rewrite record books, but the guy hasn't had any stability to work with at all.
Zoomanji
Footballguy
But unlike Kitna most of them weren't starting QBs for 5 years or brought in by a team to be the starting QB like Kitna was. He's not great but he is far from terrible like Pederson and McNown
Chairshot
Footballguy
Except that basically no one else in the past 10 years had found a way to improve them at all. Martz was easily the best thing to happen to the Lions offense since Barry Sanders retired. Just because an offense sucks doesn't mean it automatically improves the next year by default. It's not nearly as simple as you are making it out to be.And just for the sake of correctness, they certainly could have gotten worse. There were worse offenses out there before he showed up.
This seems like a pretty unfair criticism since pretty much no offensive scheme is going to make a team with sub-par talent compete with talented teams in the playoffs.
Yeah, I think the D had a lot to do with the shoot out mentality. When your D isn't going to stop anyone and your O line isn't stopping anyone either, it does effect things.My bottom line is that you have a team like the Lions that basically has one, maybe 2 legitimately skilled players on the team (Roy Williams and Calvin Williams) and he improved the teams offense 2 years running. I don't know how anyone can really criticize that. I think he just tried to feature his best players, which happened to be the WRs.No coach is perfect, of course. I don't think Martz is. But I don't think the praise he gets is misplaced, really.
CBower4545
Footballguy
Kitna Posted 291 fantasy points in 03' and 299 was his best season with Martz. Not to mentions in 6pt per td leagues he was better in 03' anyways. In 07' Kitna finished with 260 fantasy points and Kitna has posted 256, 237, and again 291 with other teams. I don't see the HUGE improvement made by being with Martz. Kitna is better then he is being given credit for. It's not like the Bengals cut this guy because he was bad, they just had to move on with Palmer. Not to mention Bulger had his best year ever after Martz left! Martz will surely add some value to the passing game but there is a little too much Martz hype here for me.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
For the non-Martz disciples . . .
Martz became a QB Coach for the Rams in 92 . . . Jim Everett saw his TD total go up by 11 (his passing yardage stayed the same).
Martz became the WR Coach for the Rams in 95 . . . the WR totals went up by 67 receptions, 730+ yards, and 7 TD and Bruce came out of nowhere to have a monster season.
Martz became the Redskins QB coach in 97 . . . the QB totals went up by around 150 yards with 10 more TD.
Martz became the Rams offensive coordinator in 99 . . . the passing totals went up by almost 1300 yards and 30 TD.
Martz became the offensive coordinator in 06 . . . the passing totals went up 1200 yards and by 6 TD.
I don't care if everyone of these teams had way better talent and turned into multipl Pro Bowlers, the fact is Martz came in and got more production out of them in the roles he's been assigned. And if we went back far enough, there were skeptics that would have said all along the way he wouldn't make an impact.
I would be shocked if the 49ers offense was as bad as it's been in recent years. While Martz may not be able to make his teams overall SB or even playoff contenders, he's shown he can get them to move the football on offense. For fantasy purposes, that's all I care about. Maybe he's due for a failure (in terms of not turning around an offense), but his track record in 16 years has been pretty stellar.
Martz became a QB Coach for the Rams in 92 . . . Jim Everett saw his TD total go up by 11 (his passing yardage stayed the same).
Martz became the WR Coach for the Rams in 95 . . . the WR totals went up by 67 receptions, 730+ yards, and 7 TD and Bruce came out of nowhere to have a monster season.
Martz became the Redskins QB coach in 97 . . . the QB totals went up by around 150 yards with 10 more TD.
Martz became the Rams offensive coordinator in 99 . . . the passing totals went up by almost 1300 yards and 30 TD.
Martz became the offensive coordinator in 06 . . . the passing totals went up 1200 yards and by 6 TD.
I don't care if everyone of these teams had way better talent and turned into multipl Pro Bowlers, the fact is Martz came in and got more production out of them in the roles he's been assigned. And if we went back far enough, there were skeptics that would have said all along the way he wouldn't make an impact.
I would be shocked if the 49ers offense was as bad as it's been in recent years. While Martz may not be able to make his teams overall SB or even playoff contenders, he's shown he can get them to move the football on offense. For fantasy purposes, that's all I care about. Maybe he's due for a failure (in terms of not turning around an offense), but his track record in 16 years has been pretty stellar.
49erBamBam52
Footballguy
Smith had a severly damaged throwing shoulder last year... dont know if you forgot about that whole debaulcle...anyone who questions that only need go back and watch any game after he "came back" from his injury and look at his face after every pass, whilst he clutches his jersey under his shoulder...this shoulder problem will innevitabley lead to dropped balls... no matter who your QB is. Bottom line is he shouldnt have even been in those games... BAM
For where he's being drafted, I can't imagine a better gamble then Alex Smith. Considering his situation the last 3 years, his age, the Martz factor, the shoulder injury....the upside here is enormous! The risk? A late round draft pick, possibly as a QB3?
Vince Young doesn't impress me though. His upside simply isn't high enough to justify a gamble.
The situation in Arizona makes me want to avoid that except maybe in best ball situations (if I had both Warner/Leinart).
Vince Young doesn't impress me though. His upside simply isn't high enough to justify a gamble.
The situation in Arizona makes me want to avoid that except maybe in best ball situations (if I had both Warner/Leinart).
49erBamBam52
Footballguy
BUT... that was also the game where he set the NFL record for most consecutive completions to start a career (note he hadnt thrown the ball in an NFL game in his whole 6 season career until then)...not too shabby for your first real game... (i think the number was like 22 straight passes...??)BAM
49erBamBam52
Footballguy
If they all had the talent level before Martz got there... why were they all nobodies...? was it becuase it was he alone who recognized their potential???if that is the case, and we believe Martz has see ability to see hidden potential, then i will tell you this...
People all focus on the positive numbers a Martz QB can produce, but fail to look at the all around team. In the last two season Kitna has tossed for over 8,000 with 39TDs, 42 Ints, & 114 sacks. A 31st and 32ranked Rushing Offense. Lets also toss on that 10W-22L record. How can I not be impressed?
I wish I could dig up a stat on QB concussions in the Martz system. I have no doubt he leads the league in that category.
Come on guys...Lets look at the big picture here. The 08 49ers are the not the 99 Rams. If you expect Smith or any other 49er QB to put up QB1 numbers, you might as well Pencil in Gore as a low end RB2. If this team plans on winning games it needs to ride Gore, not throw the ball 40 times a game. If I can see this...I assume Nolan can as well.
Martz is on record as saying that Smith has the most potential of any QB hes ever worked with.
Call me a homer, but i am exceited to see what the two can accomplish together...
And yes Smith is a very smart guy, and the key to achieving greatness in Martz' system has alot to do with your ability to recognize defenses, and your ability to get the ball out to a hot read when a blitz is comming (which is as much mental ability as it is physical)... The hot read alone (if you watch back at some of the games during the Ram hayday) is a HUGE reason that Faulk got as many touches as he did.
This should save the fact that the niners line is not exactly "Pace" worthy.
I myself will only consider picking up Smith as a QB2 and will definately not be eyeing the other two mentioned in the OP (though i do like Delhome this year, for soem reason???)
BAM
