Recent reports have Wes Welker making a near miraculous recovery, already (lightly) working in noncontact drills only 5 months after ACL surgery. Current FGB projections have him at 50-60/600ish/3-4 with around 8 games of action. So if he somehow makes it back for the opener at that pace, 100/1200/6 for a full season isn't unreasonable right? Even 12 games at that pace would be 75/900/3-4, how early do you start thinking about reaching for WW? Is there any question he's still a PPR monster whenever he makes it back to the field? What do you want to see in the preseason that would make you pull the trigger?
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Wes Welker recovery (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Azman1784
- Start date
David Yudkin
Footballguy
From my contacts, the odds are still that he starts the regular season on the regular season PUP list and will miss the first 6 weeks. We'll know very soon, as he can't play in training camp at all to be eligible for the regular season PUP list.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Also, the chances of him coming back without a significant dropoff in production are slim. IMO, I don't see anyway he comes back and gets 8-10 receptions a game.
dagwood
Footballguy
IF he comes back this year and I really think that is a big if, their goal is going to be have him as productive as possible by the time THEIR playoffs start.This is going to translate into sporadic and probably poor production from a fantasy perspective.
Couple that with NE's propensity to give out little or no info and I am not sure he is worth the risk unless you can stuff him away on an IR. I certainly would not spend a very high or even a midround pick on him.
Maybe not 8-10, but at least 5-6, right? Certainly enough to be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 in PPR leagues.I think the risk/reward scale tips in favor of taking Welker around the 8th/9th in PPR leagues, 10th/11th in nonPPRETA: 8-10 recs/game is 128-160 over a season, so we are talking record/near-record levels.
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identikit
Footballguy
Do you mean immediately upon his initial return? Or he won't (ever) be back to his normal self?
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Kleck
Footballguy
If you want him you'll probably have to pay a premium to get him. I've been in more than a few redrafts this summer and so far I'm seeing him go well above his FBG average ranking (ADP Expert).
In a 4 player keeper I took him as my #3 WR at 4.01. A bit early, but I did so not expecting much in the beginning and more of a late season and playoff run.
In a 4 player keeper I took him as my #3 WR at 4.01. A bit early, but I did so not expecting much in the beginning and more of a late season and playoff run.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The Pats need Welker healthy for the playoffs. There is no point in rushing him back and risking additional injury or a longer recovery time.I don't think that it's out of the question that he goes on the PUP list, misses the required 6 weeks + 2 additional weeks to get prepped. So maybe an 11/7 return date against Cleveland.I would guess he plays part time or in certain sets upon his return. Maybe 4-5 catches a game to get him reacclimated for a playoff run.8 games * 4.5 receptions * 10 yards + 2 TD = 35-40 receptions/350-400 yards/2 TD in half a season.That's my guess, but we could know more in a few days when training camp opens. If he's not on the preseason PUP list, we know he won't be on the regular season PUP list.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
This is true, but I think Welker was averaging ~8.8 receptions/game over the 14 games he played last year. I don't think he gets near that once he sees the field in '10.As an aside, how much of the slack does Edelman pick up if Welker is not placed on the PUP? Am I wrong in assuming he'll still have a decent role with a less than 100% Welker? At what point in the draft people feel Edelman becomes a decent pick?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I've read a couple of places that most guys product at a 60-65% level in their first year back from major knee surgery and then start getting much closer to normal the second year and beyond.As a caveat, all injuries, all players, and all bodies are different . . . so each case will be different.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
From asking around and at this stage of the game, it looks like the starting lineup in Week 1 would be Moss and Holt outside with Edelman in the slot.Once Welker comes back and Tate (for Pats fans) develops as the season progresses, it sounds like Moss would play all the time and Tate and Holt would see time outside and Welker/Edelman/Holt would see time in the slot.
Bottom line, Edelman's playing time is contingent on Welker and Holt's playing time is contingent on Tate's development.
captain_amazing
Footballguy
I have no inside sources, but my gut feeling (is that considered an inside source??) is that Welker isn't put on the PUP list, and plays a mostly limited/reserved role for the first 3-5 games. I think he looks at getting 2-3 "safe" passes in those games, and then sits and is replaced by Edelman/Holt. After, I would assume his production climes to 5-7 passes per game there on.
They have to make the playoffs first. Its not going to be easy, especially without Welker.
LawFitz
Footballguy
One major question is whether or not you play in a playoff format. If so, then Welker commands a lot of value and the drop off should not really be beyond round 4 if he sounds like he's on track. If not, then I might wait longer.
And if you think there's a good chance he would only miss a few or no games, then I could see his stock rising come the draft and crazies pulling the trigger much earlier. If WW was 100% healthy, he would be a high 2nd round pick this year in a lot of formats IMO and even a 1st rounder in some PPR leagues.
And if you think there's a good chance he would only miss a few or no games, then I could see his stock rising come the draft and crazies pulling the trigger much earlier. If WW was 100% healthy, he would be a high 2nd round pick this year in a lot of formats IMO and even a 1st rounder in some PPR leagues.
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