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Wes Welker's Targets (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gardener
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Welker's targets are down because he has been playing fewer snaps. I believe this is an effort to keep him fresh and give him a chance to heal up a little more. The side effect is the TEs are playing well. It's hard to tell if Welker will see his usual amount of time on the field. I would guess he might ramp up as the season goes, but the Pats offense has been pretty productive when he's been on the sideline for some plays so far . . .
If Welker's targets are down, what does that make him? Does he fall into the teen range with the likes of MSW, Colston, Calvin (assuming his value has taken a beating)...good for 4 grabs and 65 yards most weeks with 6-8 TDs on the year?
War Eagle
Footballguy
David Yudkin said:
Welker is not playing a full game yet. It's smart football. The Pats however, can NOT win consistently without Welker. Welker brings too much to the table as far as game planning and mis-matches. I still think he finds a way to finish the season with 100 catchesThen do you think the TEs will be used less as the season wears on? If Welker's getting 100 balls I would suspect Hernandez's #'s would drop considerably from what he is doing so far.David Yudkin said:
Cassius
Footballguy
Welker is currently on pace for 96 catches.Then do you think the TEs will be used less as the season wears on? If Welker's getting 100 balls I would suspect Hernandez's #'s would drop considerably from what he is doing so far.David Yudkin said:
Which is 27 less catches than last year. His yardage is down as well thus far, though if he's being eased back in it could certainly go up.Welker is currently on pace for 96 catches.Then do you think the TEs will be used less as the season wears on? If Welker's getting 100 balls I would suspect Hernandez's #'s would drop considerably from what he is doing so far.David Yudkin said:Welker is not playing a full game yet. It's smart football. The Pats however, can NOT win consistently without Welker. Welker brings too much to the table as far as game planning and mis-matches. I still think he finds a way to finish the season with 100 catches
Cassius
Footballguy
Nobody said anything about last year.Which is 27 less catches than last year. His yardage is down as well thus far, though if he's being eased back in it could certainly go up.Welker is currently on pace for 96 catches.Then do you think the TEs will be used less as the season wears on? If Welker's getting 100 balls I would suspect Hernandez's #'s would drop considerably from what he is doing so far.David Yudkin said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I think people this off-season who thought Welker was going to step in and pick up where he left off after having reconstructive knee surgery were not thinking clearly and were clouded by the fact that he started practicing way earlier than expected.I looked up the numbers for last year and this year and have this to report . . .Last year, Welker was in on 90% of offensive plays. This season, he has been on the field for 116 of 191 plays (only 60%). That's why the tight end numbers are up. I suspected that Welker would not see as much time on the field this year (particularly early in the season), and that for now appears to be the case.Continuing with the comparison:2009: 12.5 targets, 9.5 receptions, 104 receiving yards. 0.3 TD per game2010: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 49 receiving yards, 1.0 TD per gameI still feel that Welker's playing time and targets will stay down for awhile and slowly start to creep up some the further we get into the season, but there really is no incentive to rush him back to full capacity any time soon. The Pats need Welker firing on all cylinders and healthy at the end of the year. Taking it easy on him also gives other players more time to develop and get into the flow of the offense, so it's a win-win for NE. Last year it was Welker and Moss (and some Faulk mixed in), but after that there was no one else. Getting Hernandez, Gronk, Tate, and Edelman in there will force teams to have to covermore people and should serve to open up some pockets for Brady to find open receivers and spread the ball around (something he has gotten away from lately).No way can I see Welker averaging 16.25 ypr (using the 4 receptions for 65 yards in the post I referenced). I also don't see Welker putting up 8 TD on the season (he's averaging a TD every 3 games played with NE).In 0 PPR leagues, I would guess he will produce as a low end WR2 or high end WR3 over the first half of the season. He is worth more in PPR leagues as he will still get a lot of receptions. Over the latter half of the season, he might have some weeks with low-end WR1 numbers but I would guess he will settle in as an ok WR2 option in 0 PPR leagues.I had Welker pegged for 75-860-3 for the season before the season started (but trending up with his early return). At this point, I would probably bump that up to 90-900-6. I still think that he is always a risk to miss a game or two here or there based on his playing style and his limited size, as he takes some vicious hits every few weeks.gardener said:
The OP is asking if his targets will take a hit, so I would assume the comparison would be to previous years # of targets.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
still looking good for another 100 Rec season
but at 8 yards a catch you end up with an 800 yard season. Also there are the TD #s. Is it posisble that he already has 1/2 of his seasn TD totals? I think he has never posted more than somethng like 5-6 TDs in a season. and Gronk seems to be a real red-zone threat.
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Billy Costigan Jr
Footballguy
As far as drafting for position goes...talk about nailing both of your tight ends. 
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