What 2022 1st Round Draft Pick is Worth More Than Their (Projected) 2023 Counterparts? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lot of talk the last year about whether or not to stack up on 2023 draft picks. As the NFL & FF drafts are rapidly approaching, some of you will be getting offers for your 2022 picks.

Some of those offers might even be in exchange for 2023 picks, especially on FF draft day when someone falls in love with a London, Willis, or Wilson. 

I see a lot of “in a vacuum” type ratings of the 2022 players, or mocks comparing 2022 players to 2022 players. I don’t see a whole lot of 2022 vs 2023 except on Devy boards, and you don’t see a whole lot of 2022 players on those lists, so it has me curious. 

(Caveat: obviously we don’t know what situation any of these players will be in team-wise, and there’s also risk that some of the 2023 players will fall off, get injured, etc. a lot can change) 

But that said, using a number like “top 3 at the position”, which players in the 2022 draft do you believe will be better than their 2023 counterparts? 

Any QBs in 2022 better than Young, Stroud, or Rattler?

Any RB better than Bijan Robinson, Gibbs, or Evans?

Any WR better than JSN, Boutte, or Addison? 

This isn’t really a TE-rich draft, so…yeah - what player in 2022 are you targeting (besides the consensus 1.01 Hall) that you’re high enough on that you wouldn’t give up the pick for a 2023 1st rounder? Or would you even give up the 2022 1.01 for the projected 2023 1.01 if offered that?

Just curious.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

FWIW, I’d keep the 1.01 this year, as Hall is right there with the 2023 RBs, and showed well at the underwear olympics. I don’t see any other player I’d want over their 2023 positional counterparts. 

 

[Zyphros]

Kenneth Walker is my 1.01, and Breece Hall had an outstanding lead up to the draft. Those two would be on par, or ahead, of a top4 at RB for 2023. Add in that I have 4 WR's in 2023 who are better than ALL WR's in 2022, and you're looking at a minimum of 8 players in 2023 who are better than everyone in 2022. 

That doesn't even put into consideration of some players who could vault themselves into that category. Breakouts in 2022 could add to that list. 

It wouldn't feel great, but I'd consider trading away the 1.03 for any 2023 1st. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Kenneth Walker is my 1.01, and Breece Hall had an outstanding lead up to the draft. Those two would be on par, or ahead, of a top4 at RB for 2023. Add in that I have 4 WR's in 2023 who are better than ALL WR's in 2022, and you're looking at a minimum of 8 players in 2023 who are better than everyone in 2022. 

That doesn't even put into consideration of some players who could vault themselves into that category. Breakouts in 2022 could add to that list. 

It wouldn't feel great, but I'd consider trading away the 1.03 for any 2023 1st. 

So you have Walker over Bijan Robinson, Gibbs, Evans & Tank Bigsby? Interesting. I have Hall 2nd, behind Bijan & ahead of the rest. I have Walker behind Tucker. 

ETA, misunderstood. I agree that the 2023 WRs are better. 
 

also agree about the trade - though I’d go as high as 2022 1.02 for any 2023 pick.

 

[Zyphros]

So you have Walker over Bijan Robinson, Gibbs, Evans & Tank Bigsby? Interesting. I have Hall 2nd, behind Bijan & ahead of the rest. I have Walker behind Tucker. 

Would you mind naming those 4 WRs? Very curious who those are. I have JSN & Boutte ahead of every WR in the 2022 draft, so interested to hear your thoughts on who, and why, thanks! 

I do tier rankings so my Tier 2 in talent was Kenneth Walker, elevated to Tier1 because his workout was great and DC is expected to be high, and Bijan is already Tier1 as a talent (could elevate even higher if he his workout/DC is amazing). Breece Hall is a Tier 3 talent for me, and then elevated to Tier2 because of his workout and projected DC. Right now I have Bijan > everyone (since he's a Tier1 talent).  But my Tier2 for 2023 includes - Jahmyr Gibbs, Kendall Milton, and Sean Tucker. And guys like Zach Evans, Tank Bigsby could move into that tier as well after their 2022 seasons. 

As for the WR's JSN, Boutte are there for sure and my other 2 are Rakim Jarrett and Quentin Johnston who I'm a huge fan of both. Those are definitely going to be "my guys" next year. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I do tier rankings so my Tier 2 in talent was Kenneth Walker, elevated to Tier1 because his workout was great and DC is expected to be high, and Bijan is already Tier1 as a talent (could elevate even higher if he his workout/DC is amazing). Breece Hall is a Tier 3 talent for me, and then elevated to Tier2 because of his workout and projected DC. Right now I have Bijan > everyone (since he's a Tier1 talent).  But my Tier2 for 2023 includes - Jahmyr Gibbs, Kendall Milton, and Sean Tucker. And guys like Zach Evans, Tank Bigsby could move into that tier as well after their 2022 seasons. 

As for the WR's JSN, Boutte are there for sure and my other 2 are Rakim Jarrett and Quentin Johnston who I'm a huge fan of both. Those are definitely going to be "my guys" next year. 

Sorry - I’d misunderstood and corrected my post. I agree with you about JSN & Boutte. I even like Addison more then the 2022 WRs. i also like Jarrett & Johnston more than most of the 2022 guys 


 

also it sounds like you’re saying if Walker was 2023 you’d have him behind Bijan, but on par with Gibbs? I can see that. 

 

[Birdie048]

@Hot Sauce Guy GREAT DISCUSSION!  there have been "numerous" touches on the topic, but no real thread to cover the angle & discussion. 

Without going into the details (I have not completed my effort/write up), I view the Top 7-8 in 2022 equivalent to the Top 17-18 in 2023 talent. (subject to change)

Meaning I would gladly trade away any 2022 pick after 1.08 thru early 2nd for any 2023 1st next.  

I look at it as the 2023 Top talent has a higher ceiling than the Top 2022.  But I agree Hall would be in the Top 5 RB in 2023 currently.  

That is not to say there will be a "sure fired" Chase in the WR Class, but I don't see a likely JJAW or similar WR bust in the Top 10 WR group. 

 

[-OZ-]

It wouldn't feel great, but I'd consider trading away the 1.03 for any 2023 1st. 

I have the 1.04 in SF, so probably comparable to the 3 In regular leagues. I hadn’t considered swapping it for a 23 1st but unless it was a top team I think I agree. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@Hot Sauce Guy GREAT DISCUSSION!  there have been "numerous" touches on the topic, but no real thread to cover the angle & discussion. 

thanks - I wish I’d thought to make it format specific too, because I know SF rankings can vary wildly from 1-QB leagues, but 2022 isn’t exactly a banner year for QB, so….

folks can certainly tailor their responses to be format specific. This isn’t that formal  

Without going into the details (I have not completed my effort/write up), I view the Top 7-8 in 2022 equivalent to the Top 17-18 in 2023 talent. (subject to change)

Meaning I would gladly trade away any 2022 pick after 1.08 thru early 2nd for any 2023 1st next.  
 

that’s a solid approach. Like @Zyphros, I feel like there are quite a few WR in 2023 that I’d prefer to any 2022 WR. At least 5 for me - maybe as many as 6-7. 

I look at it as the 2023 Top talent has a higher ceiling than the Top 2022.  But I agree Hall would be in the Top 5 RB in 2023 currently.  

That is not to say there will be a "sure fired" Chase in the WR Class, but I don't see a likely JJAW or similar WR bust in the Top 10 WR group. 

Makes sense, and probably a very good approach. I see Hall as the only 2022 RB who comes close to guys like Bijan & Gibbs - Bijan is considered a generational talent at RB, but as we know those guys sometimes don’t work out due to situation or just failing to make the transition. 

And as has been said, there are always guys who fly under the radar and have unexpectedly great seasons. There will definitely be some of that. 

 

[Blick]

Giving up a current year’s production (and growth of a WR) is a big deal to me.
 

I’d trade the 1.10 this year for any 23 1st. 
 

I’d smash accept a 22 higher than 1.06 for my 23. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Giving up a current year’s production (and growth of a WR) is a big deal to me.
 

I’d trade the 1.10 this year for any 23 1st. 
 

I’d smash accept a 22 higher than 1.06 for my 23. 

I think it is also a bit situationally dependent as well.  

I have potentially four of the top five picks in 2023, including likely 1.01, which is my own pick. So I am walking a fine line on improving my team. If I obtain too much talent for 2022, I might improve myself out of that 1.01

If I do, it might cost me the 2.01 as well. The goal is to win as little as possible without actually tanking. The more players I accumulate, the less chance of that I have.

also, I keep seeing the 14 man and 16 man roster teams doing roster cut-down trades lately…that’s another context in which I could see packaging a player and a 2022 first rounder to get a 2023 first rounder. There’s no roster cost to carrying that 2023 pick.

for a competing team in 2022, I’m inclined to agree with you that it’s a valuable year of experience for a wide receiver. They don’t all come out like Chase, but I do expect very good production out of the gate from JSN and Boutte, at least. Maybe a few others, too. 

 

[Birdie048]

thanks - I wish I’d thought to make it format specific too, because I know SF rankings can vary wildly from 1-QB leagues, but 2022 isn’t exactly a banner year for QB, so….

folks can certainly tailor their responses to be format specific. This isn’t that formal  

For what it's worth, all I play are 1 QB PPR so all SF & IDP are out of my scope. 

I am not sure I would go as low as 1.06 for my 2023 1st (I have 3 of them... 2 expected to be Top 5).

It would take a 1.01 or 1.02 & pending landing spots for some to consider adding 1.03 for ANY of my 2023 1sts. 

But I can appreciate your value up to 1.06 as I see 7-8 players in 2022 who potentially are worth it.  

I’d trade the 1.10 this year for any 23 1st. 
 

I’d smash accept a 22 higher than 1.06 for my 23.