What are the odds KC starts 2-7.... (1 Viewer)

[Marc Levin]

I am impressed with jerseyh8r's patience with you guys.

Unless you have something constructive to add, please don't insult someone for simply fleshing out an idea - even if that person is, in your opinion, way off base.

Thanks.

 

[Joe Bryant]

You know less than you think about football.   

That may very well be true, but please, be so kind to share then with me what you must know so that I may become more enlightened.TIA

ETA: In the future, at least take a moment to bold the aspects that you disagree with, it would be much more constructive for the benefit of the reader.

J

 

[Joe Bryant]

I am impressed with jerseyh8r's patience with you guys.

Unless you have something constructive to add, please don't insult someone for simply fleshing out an idea - even if that person is, in your opinion, way off base.

Thanks.

What Marc said.J

 

[The Jacket]

Advanced apologies if I overstepped the line. Didn't mean to offend you, jerseyh8r.

 

[Rovers]

If you think this KC homer is bad, you should see the Chiefs message boards! Actually worse than Raiders message boards are. Say something, anything negative, there is no friendly discussion, it goes straight to insults and name calling. Even threatened bannings! I think that it's a reaction to getting Edwards. Very defensive, and a good offense is the best defense. Sort of like thier football team!

Any time there is a coaching change, especially with a new system being installed, it's really not very debatable until the games start. So, it's primarilly opinion based. Fearless forecasting.

As I said before, I think the Cheifs defensive backfield may be OK in this system.... it's the DT's, the DE's, and what I think will be a vulnerabilty to the up the middle running game, with the safeties back. The pass rush has to improve though, because the cover 2 will break down if the QB gets too much time. Maybe Hali can supply some pass rush pressure. If he can, I see the Chiefs D as slightly improved. I do think they will need to use the safety blitz more than they might want to on paper though. Hali, and what his contribution will be is something that I think will have a lot to do with this units defensive performance.

I already don't like Edwards talking about moving Hali to DT with Hicks as the DE in passing down situations. He did that with Bryan Thomas in NY, but he just inserted Thomas, instead of making Ellis move to the tackle spot. I'd rather see Hicks go inside instead of hali.... but, that's Herm for ya!

 

[jurb26]

I already don't like Edwards talking about moving Hali to DT

Wow, you have a link to this? That seems awful foolish to me, but then again he is the NFL coach and not you or I.

 

[jerseyh8r]

I really think though that you are putting a bit too much stock in rush defense b/c most teams were playing from behind

And the point was raised that the Chiefs might well be playing a lot from behind themselves?You can't have your cake and eat it.

I don't understand, one of the three (top 10) strengths that you correctly listed was rush defense. I am simply saying that I don't put alot of stock in that stat b/c they finished 20th in yards per attempt. I think they will be playing from behind b/c they are facing teams with strong offenses, especially strong passing offenses in the first 10 weeks of the season. Thus, I think things will be different for them this season in comparison to last, especially with the introduction of Edwards....I suppose that is the variable. I don't see them removing a coach who has won and taken his teams to Super Bowls, and replacing him with a HC who has traditionally "just made the playoffs" and not have some changes from last year to this year. I for one, expect some of those changes to have a negative effect, including a more predictable conservative offense, and a defense that will not produce the same number of turnovers as they did last season....at the beginning of this thread, I believed that would expose KC's defense to be worse than it seemed last season. I had not seen the RZ stats that you had mentioned, and therefore, was unconvinced of their ability to bend but not break.As a result of this thread, I have begun to put a little less weight onto their inability to try to run a more "Herm" defense, b/c they had actually shown some proficiency in the RZ that I was inaware of. A good point has also been raised that KC's D was horrible a few years back, and they still finished with 13 wins and Holmes was a stud (which I have never argued that LJ wouldn't be). Both good points to soften my stance against the KC defense....which in turn helps me more accurately determine how much I expect Trent Green to throw the ball this season. Thanks

 

[jerseyh8r]

Advanced apologies if I overstepped the line. Didn't mean to offend you, jerseyh8r.

We are in the iWorld, dude...no worries. If I was ever really insulted, I would have ignored....I thought you probably had alot of insight to offer that maybe you didn't have the time to express is all and I really did wish to hear it.

 

[jurb26]

I really think though that you are putting a bit too much stock in rush defense b/c most teams were playing from behind

And the point was raised that the Chiefs might well be playing a lot from behind themselves?You can't have your cake and eat it.

I don't understand, one of the three (top 10) strengths that you correctly listed was rush defense. I am simply saying that I don't put alot of stock in that stat b/c they finished 20th in yards per attempt. I think they will be playing from behind b/c they are facing teams with strong offenses, especially strong passing offenses in the first 10 weeks of the season.

Thus, I think things will be different for them this season in comparison to last, especially with the introduction of Edwards....I suppose that is the variable. I don't see them removing a coach who has won and taken his teams to Super Bowls, and replacing him with a HC who has traditionally "just made the playoffs" and not have some changes from last year to this year. I for one, expect some of those changes to have a negative effect, including a more predictable conservative offense, and a defense that will not produce the same number of turnovers as they did last season....at the beginning of this thread, I believed that would expose KC's defense to be worse than it seemed last season. I had not seen the RZ stats that you had mentioned, and therefore, was unconvinced of their ability to bend but not break.

As a result of this thread, I have begun to put a little less weight onto their inability to try to run a more "Herm" defense, b/c they had actually shown some proficiency in the RZ that I was inaware of. A good point has also been raised that KC's D was horrible a few years back, and they still finished with 13 wins and Holmes was a stud (which I have never argued that LJ wouldn't be). Both good points to soften my stance against the KC defense....which in turn helps me more accurately determine how much I expect Trent Green to throw the ball this season. Thanks

Teams were able to run the ball on KC when they choose to do so and I think the stats show that:

|---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL              CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD    YPA  TD     YD              325  558  3679   6.59  25  16  383  1570  4.10  11   5249NFL rank --->  26   27   30     23   29  17    2    7    20   13     25

What seems to be holding the arguement of them being a strong run D together here is the lack of teams trying to run on them which is seen by the 2nd fewest atts in the NFL. Looking at that pass D however, why would they run more when they can pick apart the team via the air and still gain over 4 yds per carry?

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

I see a 5-4 start with losses vs. SEA and in DEN, PITT amd MIA where KC historically plays like crap...no way we beat Miami in Miami 2 years in a row.

Chiefs will only lose one game @ home, and that will be SEA. I see KC going 11-5 with the other loss being @ SD

But I am sure I will be called a homer and that is fine....but there last seven games are pretty nice with road games @ CLE and @ OAK

 

[Rovers]

I already don't like Edwards talking about moving Hali to DT

Wow, you have a link to this? That seems awful foolish to me, but then again he is the NFL coach and not you or I.

That was something I read, I beleive from one of Edwrad's interviews at a Chiefs' board. He also said something strange (but with Edwards, some interpretation is needed) about how Hali did not impress him. Somthing like "He is what he is." I think, after some discussion, what he meant was he's as good as Herm thought he was when he drafted him. So, he wasn't impressed, he got what he drafted. Herm speak. Yes, he talked about having Hali as the regular DE, but in passing situations, bringing in Hicks to play DE, and moving Hali inside to tackle. Nothing set in stone, but he talked about doing this. That was all..... but I'd have to spend an hour finding a link back to that article. Sorry.

 

[The Jacket]

Wow, you have a link to this? That seems awful foolish to me, but then again he is the NFL coach and not you or I.

Using a pass-rusher inside on a guard, in passing situations, is foolish?Why? What's so foolish about getting more speed and power on the field in a third down situation where you want to improve your pass-rush?

It's moves *like* that which prevented the Chiefs from doing things on defense.

 

[jurb26]

I already don't like Edwards talking about moving Hali to DT

Wow, you have a link to this? That seems awful foolish to me, but then again he is the NFL coach and not you or I.

That was something I read, I beleive from one of Edwrad's interviews at a Chiefs' board. He also said something strange (but with Edwards, some interpretation is needed) about how Hali did not impress him. Somthing like "He is what he is." I think, after some discussion, what he meant was he's as good as Herm thought he was when he drafted him. So, he wasn't impressed, he got what he drafted. Herm speak. Yes, he talked about having Hali as the regular DE, but in passing situations, bringing in Hicks to play DE, and moving Hali inside to tackle. Nothing set in stone, but he talked about doing this. That was all..... but I'd have to spend an hour finding a link back to that article. Sorry.

NP, I trust you Rovers.

 

[The Jacket]

I don't understand, one of the three (top 10) strengths that you correctly listed was rush defense. I am simply saying that I don't put alot of stock in that stat b/c they finished 20th in yards per attempt.

You said that I shouldn't put a lot of stock in it because the Chiefs were often ahead (which implies that the opponents' rushing game went out of the window). This is pretty accurate.But then it was also detailed how the Chiefs will probably be playing from behind a lot this season.

As I said, you can't have it both ways. If they were often ahead last year and therefore didn't need to defend the run as much, that's fine. But I don't think it's fair to then assume the Chiefs will always be playing catch-up in 2006. I understand seasons are different, but if we're using past performances to measure the Chiefs' defense, it's certainly not fair to use the old "it's a new season" line to make a point against them.

I don't see them removing a coach who has won and taken his teams to Super Bowls, and replacing him with a HC who has traditionally "just made the playoffs" and not have some changes from last year to this year.

This particular point doesn't hold weight with me. Vermeil did nothing in Kansas City, and hasn't earned the title of successful. He was. But Priest Holmes was an elite back.

As a result of this thread, I have begun to put a little less weight onto their inability to try to run a more "Herm" defense, b/c they had actually shown some proficiency in the RZ that I was inaware of. A good point has also been raised that KC's D was horrible a few years back, and they still finished with 13 wins and Holmes was a stud (which I have never argued that LJ wouldn't be). Both good points to soften my stance against the KC defense....which in turn helps me more accurately determine how much I expect Trent Green to throw the ball this season. Thanks

Maybe every "homer" says this, maybe they don't, but I don't think I'm overly biased. I call things as I see them to the best of my abilities. Larry Johnson - #2 fantasy running back in my book. Is that so bad? It's not #1 and, if I'm not mistaken, that's his current ADP.

Chiefs' defense - average. All I have ever called it is average. And I'd just like to see them given credit for that. It's not much, but it's better than the typcial mantra it earned from 2000-2004. Perhaps they need to do more to overcome that, and that's fine, but I don't think that pointing out the statistics and performances that reflect a middle-of-the-pack unit is particuarly biased.

Anyway...

 

[jerseyh8r]

Anyway...

This has gone as far as we can take it productively....thanks for the honest discussion.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

  If LJ repeated his week 16 stats 16 times (to project out for an entire season) he would have rushed for over 2000 yards against the Charger defense.

I admitted it was a strong game, but it was hardly a jaw-dropping performance. I'm still not overly impressed. But if it gets you excited to imagine that 131 yards and 1 TD is devastating, then I wish you all the best.

You're fighting a losing battle here.131, 1 WAS LJ getting shut down.

Oh, and you forgot about his 48 receiving yards and TD, which, combined together was... oh....

179, 2TD

Yeah, I think you win. What a bum this guy was against the best rushing defense in the NFL.

The SD-KC week 16 game was played in the mud, so the 131 could have easily been 170-180. KC-SD weather conditions

KC-SD week 16, part 2

 

[Rovers]

Wow, you have a link to this?  That seems awful foolish to me, but then again he is the NFL coach and not you or I.

Using a pass-rusher inside on a guard, in passing situations, is foolish?Why? What's so foolish about getting more speed and power on the field in a third down situation where you want to improve your pass-rush?

It's moves *like* that which prevented the Chiefs from doing things on defense.

I don't have a problem at all with bringing in a pass rusher to play tackle in passing situation downs, but I question why Edwards wouldn't just let Hali stay at DE, and let Hicks go inside. I just can't find a good reason for that. If Hali is a better DE, why not leave the rookie alone? Let him play one position, instead of bouncing him around? If there is some solid answer to that, I'm all ears.