What are your talent evaluation strengths/weaknesses? (1 Viewer)

[Morton Muffley]

I am good at spotting/drafting talent at RB and QB. For example, I liked LT, FWP, Gore, and Kevin Jones more than most this year and held a corresponding dislike for Edge and Caddy. Among QBs, I liked Kitna, Rivers, and Big Ben more than most and had a corresponding dislike for Plummer and Eli Manning. Certainly they didn’t all turn out as I imagined, but I think that’s a pretty good hit rate.

Ok, so why then am I so dreadful year after year at evaluating WR talent. Why do I always get stuck with the Chris Chambers’ of the world (last year it was Andre Johnson)? Why do all my breakout WRs end up being Matt Jones instead of Colston?

Help me avoid this issue next year, tell me what you use to evaluate talent at WR? Or is there another method, perhaps everyone is as lousy as I am at evaluating WR talent and the best strategy is to not waste picks in the 10-20 WR range, but instead stockpile depth at other positions and then trade that depth after the WR class shakes out. Any ideas/advice would be welcomed.

Thanks in advance.

 

[losgalacticos]

My brutal weakness: QB. I have given up deciding for myself who will be a good QB based on watching college or pro games. I can't seperate guys who need time from guys who make quick decisions.

Better than average success: RB. I also nailed Kevin Jones from Virgina Tech, and have had him since draft day. Snagged LJ from a disgusted owner before last season based on his domination at PennState and succuss when Holmes was injured- thought he was better than a late 1st rounder. Have whiffed on some, though, to be fair- Enis and Antowain Smith, but I am getting better.

Think I can help you at WR- I drafted Andre Johnson over Charles Rogers their rookie years as an example. Got funny looks when I took Evans late this pre-season, and got Cotchery cheap. I have a good history here. Avoided Matt Jones and Reggie Williams.

What to look for at WR:

-We can't see every game, so reading scouting reports helps. HOWEVER, athletic ability is nothing without serious BALL SKILLS. This is why Tory Holt is a stud- he has both, and the scouts knew it. Same with Fitzgerald, who is not that fast. When I read reports on Troy Williamson, they only mentioned his athletic skills, not his comfort with the ball. Watching Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, they will drive you crazy if you were a Jax fan. They are not comfortable when the ball is near.

One trap is seeing someone make a good play here or there, and mistakingly decide the player has ball skills. This is where the scouts do the work for us- we need these plays consistantly. I read about Cothery's ball skills in his rookie draft reports. Once Pennington started looking to him, it was time to re-calculate him. Now look at that TD this past week and ask yourself if Reggie Williams makes that play. All the reports said Williams was stronger and faster, but he likely does not make that play.

I drafted Randy Moss very high his rookie year (when most did not) - and there was a simple 5 yard play in the end zone in the pre-season that showed me that is was (WAS!) extremely comfortable with a poorly thrown ball. He twisted and adjusted, and caught the ball. It told me more than all those bombs.

 

[beto]

nice post by losgalacticos

my weakness is not following through on guys I think are talented prior to the draft. Once the draft happens I go into a little bit of information overload and forget about guys who I rated highly but fell or I get too focused on one particular guy.

 

[Jackal King]

My bias against rookie W/R has cost me Colston and Boldin.

I'm going to try to avoid that mistake in the future.

If a rook get's a ton of targets....and/or a big game....I'm not going to be afraid to take a chance.

Most of the time it's probably an anomaly....but...I'd rather have him and have to throw him back, than be kicking myself all year for always going with the odds.

 

[KiddLattimer]

I ran into a HUGE problem last year with WRs and it caused me to have the worst year I have ever had in fantasy. I grabbed Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Kerry Colbert in a league that starts 3+ a flex. What do all of these guys have in common? Very little experience and a ton of hype going into 2005. Roy and Andre are solid this year but I can tell you first hand... they sucked 2 years ago.

The best advice I can give you is to draft veterans in their prime, and take a shot at ONE "big potential" WR but ALWAYS make sure you back him up with 2 veterans. Any WR can put up big numbers at the end of the year in a short period of time, over a span of meaningless games. Think Drew Bennett 2 years ago and Chambers this year. Unless you have a season and a half worth of productivity to evaluate them... don't buy the draft guide hype.

If you want to take shots, do it in the late rounds (aka... cheaply). I noticed the last few games of last year that Berrian and Grossman were clicking, so I picked him up on the cheap. I also grabbed Chris Henry in the 2nd to last round. Both panned out nicely this year, but if they didn't all it cost me was a 16th and 17th round pick.

 

[Borat]

Help me avoid this issue next year, tell me what you use to evaluate talent at WR? Or is there another method, perhaps everyone is as lousy as I am at evaluating WR talent and the best strategy is to not waste picks in the 10-20 WR range, but instead stockpile depth at other positions and then trade that depth after the WR class shakes out. Any ideas/advice would be welcomed.

This is my strategy, and it's never failed me. I don't think I've ever used one of my first 4 picks on a WR. In fact, when I took Manning in the 1st round and Gates in the 4th round last year, I think that was the first time I haven't just gone with all RBs with my first few picks.

 

[AnonymousBob]

My strength and my weakness is buying into coachspeak/hype from teammates in regard to rookie wr's.

Boldin, Michael Clayton, Coltston and Jennings are some of the fine examples that have panned out for me. Sadly, there have many, many, many complete busts I've drafted.