What direction are people taking with 1.07 in rookie drafts? (1 Viewer)

[ILoveMyLions]

Assuming most drafts are going McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Forte, F. Jones and K. Smith in some order, where would you go next in a dynasty league? One of my leauges willl likely go this way and I'm having a hard time deciding between Rice and Johnson at that spot. Perhaps some will suggest QB Ryan, or other RBs like Charles or Torain, but I see Rice and Johnson as the next two talents. I'm leaning towards Rice because I think he's more of an every down type player than Johnson and my league is non-ppr where Johnson will thrive more. Any thoughts from others who are in the same dilemma? What are you seeing in drafts lately?

 

[Scooby1974]

I traded my 1.7 for just this same reason. I don't like the players that likely fall here to be great contributors right away. What is your greatest need?

Chris Johnson will be fighting Lendale White for PT, and Lendale will most likely get the goalline TD's.

Rice might see the field a little as a kick returner/3rd down situations here and there but will not likely unseat Willis.

In the long term I like Rice better of the two, but I'm not expecting MJD like production like many you will find in these forums.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Grab Chris Johnson, he will used extensively in Tennessee. And his touches are not related to lenDale White's touches IMO...he will line up at receiver some of the time.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I think both C.Johnson and R.Rice are worth top 5 picks this year. IMO Rice is the best pure running back in this class. You may have to be patient for him to get his shot, but I see a Curtis Martin type career for this guy.

 

[pablito]

As a dynasty LenDale White owner, I thought it was a no brainer for me to take Johnson.

 

[Kleck]

Rice would be an easy choice for me at 1.07.

 

[FavreCo]

Rice would be an easy choice for me at 1.07.

Me too. Neither he nor Johnson will be doing much of anything this year. Longterm, it's Rice. Johnson is a really poor man's Reggie Bush and he is on a team with a pathetic offense. Bush even on a superior offense is not all-world. Rice just has to wait out McGahee. That could come as early as next year.

 

[FavreCo]

Grab Chris Johnson, he will used extensively in Tennessee. And his touches are not related to lenDale White's touches IMO...he will line up at receiver some of the time.

That's a non-factor. Who's gonna lineup again at QB? 9 TD Vince Young? No thanks.

 

[cowboymouth]

Hardy or CJ3 would be my picks depending upon my needs.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

This is my point, the voting is 4-3 in favor of Rice over Johnson and two of those said it was close. Anyone else have something to add into this? If you had to bet on who had the better chance of being a fantasy starter, who would you choose?

 

[munchkin]

I own LW and would love it if Rice fell to me. I draft at 1.09 and I feel strongly that Rice will not be there but that there is a good chance CJ will.

 

[GROMS]

For you I'd prolly take Rice or Ryan.

I've got a similar situation in our dynasty. I've got the 1.6 and we have PPR and use IDP. I don't know if I should grab Rice, Johnson, Hardy or Lofton/Dizon/Mayo

 

[purplehaze67]

I've had this decision a few times in various rookie drafts. I like em both but probably Rice a little better, if situation was not factored in. So, to me it came down to the makeup of my team. Most of the time, I didn't have an immediate need for production at RB so I went with Rice. In one league, I needed someone for this year, so Johnson was the call. Drafting for situation can often lead to a poor pick, and I may end up kicking myself there...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'd trade back because I don't care for either long-term. I'd rather move back a handful of spots and grab a WR.

 

[Lord Lucan]

The other possibility to consider at around this point, assuming you can pick free agent veterans, is Ahamd Bradshaw, who was a free agent in a lot of, if not most, dynasty leagues when waiver wire pick-ups closed last year. I think the prison/parole thing has probably made him too much of a risk at this point, but if you could guarantee his legal problems were nothing to worry about, he would be worthy of consideration; he seems to split this board down the middle into people who think he is a) a legitimate challenger to Jacobs this year and a potential starter before too long, and b) little more than a change-of-pace back and probably not even the true back-up to Jacobs (i.e Ward). Those of us who tend more towards the optimistic scenario have been taking him at around 1:07 in Dynasty drafts.

 

[mdog1967]

I think both C.Johnson and R.Rice are worth top 5 picks this year. IMO Rice is the best pure running back in this class. You may have to be patient for him to get his shot, but I see a Curtis Martin type career for this guy.

I agree with Rice and almost on Johnson. I would select Johnson at 1.07 if Rice were gone. I am seriously considering drafting Rice and ahead of both Forte and Smith. Short term value would be Smith and Forte, but I am also thinking that Rice is just too good a player to pass up on for the long term. I think he is a much better RB than MG in Baltimore and will increase carries by the end of the season and make MG expendable in 2009.My Draft Order as of now for this RB class is:1. Stew2. Mend3. Rice - (If your looking for a starter this year drop to number 6)4. Forte5. Smith6. Johnson7. DMAC

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think Chris Johnson is the no-brainer #4 pick in PPR leagues. And even in non-PPR leagues, I'd still go with him at #4. I think he has a much better chance of being a difference-maker than Forte or Kevin Smith.

. . . . And that was before I read Pro Football Prospectus this week. For what it's worth, Prospectus projects Johnson to run for 900+ and catch 400+ this season.

 

[MAC_32]

Chris Johnson and Ray Rice are 4 and 5 on my rookie dyno draft board with the slight nod to Johnson. The opportunity for Smith and Forte are over inflating their draft values and there are too many questions surrounding Felix Jones in my eyes to consider him over either Johnson or Rice.

 

[FUBAR]

Rice would be an easy choice for me at 1.07.

Me too. Neither he nor Johnson will be doing much of anything this year. Longterm, it's Rice. Johnson is a really poor man's Reggie Bush and he is on a team with a pathetic offense. Bush even on a superior offense is not all-world. Rice just has to wait out McGahee. That could come as early as next year.

Really?Below average overall, but hardly "pathetic.

That "pathetic" offense was #5 in rushing yards and #6 rush TDs.

Sure their QB didn't throw well last year, you actually think that's a reason to downplay a RB with receiving skills?

As others have said, these are my #4 and #5 picks in this class, CJ3 ahead of Rice in PPR and for immediate impact.

 

[FUBAR]

Grab Chris Johnson, he will used extensively in Tennessee. And his touches are not related to lenDale White's touches IMO...he will line up at receiver some of the time.

That's a non-factor. Who's gonna lineup again at QB? 9 TD Vince Young? No thanks.

Nah, it's eitherA. Former Rookie of the Year Vince Young

B. Take the team to the playoffs my 2nd year in the league Vince Young

Discount these feats all you want, VY will be winning games in the NFL for a long time.

 

[gman8343]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

 

[FUBAR]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

You seem to be an intelligent guy, so please explain why you think a rookie QB will make an impact before a few years. Except for Peyton Manning, it takes QBs awhile in the league to become FF forces.

 

[gman8343]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

You seem to be an intelligent guy, so please explain why you think a rookie QB will make an impact before a few years. Except for Peyton Manning, it takes QBs awhile in the league to become FF forces.

I think Ryan will play immediately and while he won't pay dividends in year one, should improve in year two to the point of being a decent fantasy backup QB at the least, with a much higher upside.I don't think Ray Rice will get significant time outside of injury to McGahee for at least two years, and to be honest, I'm not as high on Rice as some.

 

[FUBAR]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

You seem to be an intelligent guy, so please explain why you think a rookie QB will make an impact before a few years. Except for Peyton Manning, it takes QBs awhile in the league to become FF forces.

I think Ryan will play immediately and while he won't pay dividends in year one, should improve in year two to the point of being a decent fantasy backup QB at the least, with a much higher upside.I don't think Ray Rice will get significant time outside of injury to McGahee for at least two years, and to be honest, I'm not as high on Rice as some.

ok. IMO, the key is you're still waiting for the player to make an impact. Ryan could be the better long term pick, so taking him might be smart.

 

[Festivus]

I traded back to 1.07 and I took Rice. Immediate help would have been nice, but I'm willing to wait because Rice reminds of (here comes blasphemy) Emmit Smith. Everyone thinks that he's too small, too slow, etc., but he knows how to run between the tackles and use his blocks. IMO, that translates better into the NFL than a back that dominated college on athleticism alone.

 

[EBF]

Tough call. Chris Johnson is interesting in PPR, but I don't think he'll ever be more than a change of pace back. I also think he has the highest bust risk of these guys. I haven't picked him in any of my dynasty drafts.

I have Ray Rice and Felix Jones clustered very tightly together in my rankings. I like Felix's explosiveness and his first round pedigree. I like Ray's low center of gravity and leg drive. I think Felix is a safer bet to make an NFL impact, but Ray might have a better chance of becoming a good FF player. I've wavered between these two all offseason. I think I favor Ray slightly though.

This is going to be a very interesting RB class to follow. There are some fairly unique guys out there this year.

 

[DaDaDaDawg]

I had the same dilemna with pick 1.07 in a PPR dynasty league.

Ended up trading 1.07, Andre Davis, Amani Toomer & Vince Young for Garcia, Selvin Young, Brandon Jackson and pick 2.05

 

[cstu]

Grab Chris Johnson, he will used extensively in Tennessee. And his touches are not related to lenDale White's touches IMO...he will line up at receiver some of the time.

That's a non-factor. Who's gonna lineup again at QB? 9 TD Vince Young? No thanks.

Nah, it's eitherA. Former Rookie of the Year Vince Young

B. Take the team to the playoffs my 2nd year in the league Vince Young

Discount these feats all you want, VY will be winning games in the NFL for a long time.

I'll take:C. Doesn't have great WR's and likes to dump the ball off VY

Chris Johnson won't be worth much at all in non-PPR leagues but he'll be a big part of the passing game and points in PPR should add up for him even if VY doesn't post very good stats himself.

 

[FUBAR]

I had the same dilemna with pick 1.07 in a PPR dynasty league.Ended up trading 1.07, Andre Davis, Amani Toomer & Vince Young for Garcia, Selvin Young, Brandon Jackson and pick 2.05

Congrats, that will probably go down as one of the worst trades ever.

 

[mike11162]

I took Rice at 1.07 last week in a contract league draft. I'm already deep short term at RB with LDT, Portis and Barber, but I lose Portis to free agency after this year and LDT the following season, so figured I'd have Rice developing in the pipeline. I had some needs at QB and WR but just not that impressed with this year's crop of either vs. Rice's potential. Even though it's a PPR league, I still like Rice over Johnson or Torain more long term. Since I didn't need immediate impact, it was a no brainer for me to jump on Rice.

BTW, Torain and Johnson followed in that draft (rookie only) in that order.

 

[CEO of the Barefoots]

I had the same dilemna with pick 1.07 in a PPR dynasty league.Ended up trading 1.07, Andre Davis, Amani Toomer & Vince Young for Garcia, Selvin Young, Brandon Jackson and pick 2.05

Congrats, that will probably go down as one of the worst trades ever.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Thanks for the input on this, I'm was leaning Rice before this thread and I'm still going with him at this point. Thanks for the input everyone....

 

[BigTex]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

Dynasty, I'm drafting BPA. No way I'm taking a chance on either rb who may or may not make it or even given a chance but Ryan or one of the top wr will be my choice.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

Dynasty, I'm drafting BPA. No way I'm taking a chance on either rb who may or may not make it or even given a chance but Ryan or one of the top wr will be my choice.

I find it easier to trade for QBs than RBs. I would take Rice over Ryan.

 

[FUBAR]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

Dynasty, I'm drafting BPA. No way I'm taking a chance on either rb who may or may not make it or even given a chance but Ryan or one of the top wr will be my choice.

I find it easier to trade for QBs than RBs. I would take Rice over Ryan.

QBs are always easier to get, unless you truly see Ryan as the next Peyton, or Atlanta signing Randy Moss. As for the top WRs, have at it. None of them look exceptional, while Rice or CJ3 could be.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

For some reason, I just LOVE Chris Johnson's talent AND opportunity. He will be on the field a ton and will be given the chance to get the ball in the open field.

 

[BigTex]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

Dynasty, I'm drafting BPA. No way I'm taking a chance on either rb who may or may not make it or even given a chance but Ryan or one of the top wr will be my choice.

I find it easier to trade for QBs than RBs. I would take Rice over Ryan.

QBs are always easier to get, unless you truly see Ryan as the next Peyton, or Atlanta signing Randy Moss. As for the top WRs, have at it. None of them look exceptional, while Rice or CJ3 could be.

I understand what many are saying about the QB position, but getting a Manning, Brady, or McNabb when he was on fire and surely there's others that could be mentioned. But they will come with a heavy price tag. There's no doubt that Ryan will get his chance on a team that is going to "grow" with him. He's in a similar situation that Culter is in...........a rebuilding team that can only get better.

 

[Chunky Soup]

CJ and don't look back. It's not close.

 

[FUBAR]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

Dynasty, I'm drafting BPA. No way I'm taking a chance on either rb who may or may not make it or even given a chance but Ryan or one of the top wr will be my choice.

I find it easier to trade for QBs than RBs. I would take Rice over Ryan.

QBs are always easier to get, unless you truly see Ryan as the next Peyton, or Atlanta signing Randy Moss. As for the top WRs, have at it. None of them look exceptional, while Rice or CJ3 could be.

I understand what many are saying about the QB position, but getting a Manning, Brady, or McNabb when he was on fire and surely there's others that could be mentioned. But they will come with a heavy price tag. There's no doubt that Ryan will get his chance on a team that is going to "grow" with him. He's in a similar situation that Culter is in...........a rebuilding team that can only get better.

You might be right on Ryan, I'm just not sold on him being more than, at his high-end, Hasselbeck. Good, but acquirable.

 

[BigTex]

If I coudl wait a few years I may take Rice, but I'd probably grab Matt Ryan.

Dynasty, I'm drafting BPA. No way I'm taking a chance on either rb who may or may not make it or even given a chance but Ryan or one of the top wr will be my choice.

I find it easier to trade for QBs than RBs. I would take Rice over Ryan.

QBs are always easier to get, unless you truly see Ryan as the next Peyton, or Atlanta signing Randy Moss. As for the top WRs, have at it. None of them look exceptional, while Rice or CJ3 could be.

I understand what many are saying about the QB position, but getting a Manning, Brady, or McNabb when he was on fire and surely there's others that could be mentioned. But they will come with a heavy price tag. There's no doubt that Ryan will get his chance on a team that is going to "grow" with him. He's in a similar situation that Culter is in...........a rebuilding team that can only get better.

You might be right on Ryan, I'm just not sold on him being more than, at his high-end, Hasselbeck. Good, but acquirable.

Fair enough, this is why I love FF everyone has a different perspective on things, no matter right, wrong, or indifferent it's great. Thanks for the inputETA: I could be that at the 1.7 pick Ryan is the "safer" pick and that's why I'm targeting him or the #1 wr vs the #6 or 7 running back. Picking this late in the draft safer seems better.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

CJ and don't look back. It's not close.

....if I see that phrase one more time.....

 

[Brewzers]

In Fantasy Legends II league (0.5 ppr), I took Felix Jones at 1.05 and Ray Rice at 1.07 (traded up from 1.11, targeting Rice). CJ was the 1.06 and Kevin Smith 1.08. I rely on the SP to help evaluate college RB talent, especially EBF.