What five players scream BUST to you this year? (1 Viewer)

[Cato]

If you think there aren't a lot of factors that could make some players more prone to getting hurt than others, you're deluding yourself.

Just because injuries can happen to anyone doesn't mean certain players aren't more likely to get hurt than others.

IMO, exactly this.

All players playing a violent sport are likely to be injured at some point. All of them.

However certain builds playing certain styles, will not prove as durable. So their injury occurrences will be more frequent.

Cam Newton does a QB sneak,

Mike Vick does a QB sneak (in a somewhat similar style.)

Adrian Peterson runs for 10 yards.

Demarco Murray runs for 10 yards.

Welker catches a slant for 5 yards.

Amendola catches a slant for 5 yards.

Put me down for Murray, McFadden, Vick, Amendola missing significant time this year. IMO, I think certain players are writing cheques their bodies can't cash, though I'm not sure how to empirically prove this is the case.

Maybe this is something we only try to prove a posteriorii, rather then a priori, ie the very definition of narrative fallacy.

I just know that we're all essentially betting on which horses will win the race, I don't have comfort/faith in certain horses to finish the race.

There probably is an aging curve as well, where certain players eventually will prove you right if you claim them to be injury-prone. (See Big Ben). Perhaps eventually injuries have a cumulative effect or it's simply that time is the only undefeated warrior and age catches all players.

There can be deviations both ways vs the "injury prone" tag, ie Andre Johnson, etc, but to think certain players don't actually fit this bill, to me seems false.

 

[Ilov80s]

MJD - This is as much based on the RBs going around him as anything, but I think the only reason he's still considered a late 2nd rounder is because of his past. Bad team, bad offense, no thanks. And getting back to the RBs going around him, SJax, CJ1K, and Ridley are the 3 going ahead of him. MUCH less risk with those guys who all really have as high of a ceiling as a 2013 MJD does. Id also prefer a reliable RB like Gore or Bush who are going shortly after MJD.

DMC - See MJD basically. Bad team, bad offense, cant stay healthy. Cant believe this guy is still a 3rd round pick, I guess people hoping for another 2010 season, but he has been RB34 and RB28 (3.3 YPC last year) the last 2 years, and is going as a top 20 RB still this year. Once again, give me a reliable guy going around him like Bush or Sproles who still have some upside.

Larry Fitz - Despite over 150 targets last year, couldnt even finish as a top 40 WR. Palmer is an upgrade, but Fitz's scoring opportunities will still be limited. He has a lower floor, by far, than any WR taken remotely close to him. There are literally 10 WRs going after him that I would take before him. How he is going as the 7th WR off the board is beyond me.

James Jones - His 14 TDs last year are as fluky as a stat as I can think of from last year, or really any year. Rodgers #3 WR certainly has value, but this guy is being drafted as a borderline WR2. I expect the RBs to have more TDs this year in GB. Id be happy to get Jordy (who I think is 1 of the most undervalued players this year) or Randall The TD Robber Cobber, but I'll pass on Jones and let someone else hope he approaches his 2013 statline.

Kyle Rudolph - MIN added Jennings and Patterson, Wright has another year to develop. His 9 TDs were only surpassed by Gronk last year at the TE position, and were half of Ponder's TDs. That plus the new competition for targets tells me it will be hard to come close to repeating his numbers last year, which still only had him end up as TE11. His current ADP is TE6, no thanks.

Did you just use the words "reliable" and "Bush" together in two sentences?

You can't really use 150 targets as your basis on Fitz. Anyone that watched the Cardinals last year knows about 80 of those were uncatchable. Thats like saying Jupiter doesn't have the size to be a good target because I threw a rock at it 150 times.

In the last 2 years when Bush was the featured RB, he finished as RB13 and RB14. Inconsistent, yes, but I expect him to be more stable on a much better offense this year.

Thats fine and all with the targets, there are plenty of very good WRs being drafted after Fitz though, so while I like the talent, the cost/risk to take him makes absolutely no sense.

That is almost the absolute most consistent possible outcome.

 

[Ilov80s]

If you think there aren't a lot of factors that could make some players more prone to getting hurt than others, you're deluding yourself.

Just because injuries can happen to anyone doesn't mean certain players aren't more likely to get hurt than others.

Can you prove that?

 

[Grahamburn]

If you think there aren't a lot of factors that could make some players more prone to getting hurt than others, you're deluding yourself.

Just because injuries can happen to anyone doesn't mean certain players aren't more likely to get hurt than others.

Right, but that risk is usually factored into ADP. We all know which guys were hurt last year, which ones are nicked now, and which ones have been hurt before.

Just looking at the list he posted as "less likely to be injured:"

Tom Brady has been on IR. Peyton Manning has been on IR. Adrian Peterson has missed games and been on IR. Jamaal Charles has been on IR. Doug Martin missed time in college with an ankle injury. A. J. Green is out right now with a knee issue. Calvin Johnson has missed games AND been clearly hampered in others.

I'd say you can do that with just about every guy who has ever played football...

Predicting injury in the NFL might be the most asinine practice there is. For every guy who ended up on a preseason "injury prone" list who actually did get hurt I could find another player on that list who didn't.

 

[butcher boy]

If you think there aren't a lot of factors that could make some players more prone to getting hurt than others, you're deluding yourself.

Just because injuries can happen to anyone doesn't mean certain players aren't more likely to get hurt than others.

Right, but that risk is usually factored into ADP. We all know which guys were hurt last year, which ones are nicked now, and which ones have been hurt before.

Just looking at the list he posted as "less likely to be injured:"

Tom Brady has been on IR. Peyton Manning has been on IR. Adrian Peterson has missed games and been on IR. Jamaal Charles has been on IR. Doug Martin missed time in college with an ankle injury. A. J. Green is out right now with a knee issue. Calvin Johnson has missed games AND been clearly hampered in others.

I'd say you can do that with just about every guy who has ever played football...

Predicting injury in the NFL might be the most asinine practice there is. For every guy who ended up on a preseason "injury prone" list who actually did get hurt I could find another player on that list who didn't.

In reference to the bold, it's much more complicated than whether someone's been on an IR at some point. When I look at injury proneness I look at things like how many games/season they average, how many 16 game seasons they've had recently, whether they are a player who can play through injuries (ie: Big Ben) or they come off the field after the slightest nick (ie: Ryan Mathews), etc. It's also not a matter of predicting exactly how many games they will miss because nobody can do that. All I can say is that with a few guys, I'm confident enough that they will either miss enough time, or at the very least be questionable on injury reports enough times to be a major headache to my team.

What gets overlooked a lot with guys with injury history is that while they may play X amount of games, there's more than likely many more games where they were questionable on the injury report and/or were gametime decisions. In these cases, you may have benched them and if that player ends up starting, you miss the points they'd have given you. This lowers that player's value to your team.

I agree that injury proneness is many times factored into ADP, it's just not factored in enough IMO for a handful of guys. Mathews and McFadden are examples of this to me. They need to fall a few more rounds at least, for me to consider drafting them which is why I include them in my bust list.

 

[Grahamburn]

I agree that injury proneness is many times factored into ADP, it's just not factored in enough IMO for a handful of guys. Mathews and McFadden are examples of this to me. They need to fall a few more rounds at least, for me to consider drafting them which is why I include them in my bust list.

Their injury history can't be ignored, but there's a lot of luck involved in winning at this hobby. Players who "never" get hurt sometimes do, and sometimes "injury prone" players blow the doors off their ADP. Schaub 2009, Stafford 2011, Calvin 2010, Andre last year, Beanie Wells 2011, Fred Taylor for several seasons, Reggie Bush in Miami, etc, etc, etc.

IF those players don't get injured their owners have a great shot at dominating their league. I know this because I've taken on that risk with those guys listed above and won with them.

I think there's already a thread for this... My apologies.

 

[Leonidas]

If you think there aren't a lot of factors that could make some players more prone to getting hurt than others, you're deluding yourself.

Just because injuries can happen to anyone doesn't mean certain players aren't more likely to get hurt than others.

Can you prove that?

It's hard to prove.

That's why my absolute refusal to go with Darren McFadden last year bit me in the ###.

Oh, wait...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I agree. There are a staggering number of guys injured every year. Which players would you say are at a low risk for injury? Who isn't "due?"

Pretty much all the elite QBs except RG3 and Stafford

...and Brady, and Manning, and Roethlisberger, and Brees, and Romo, and Vick, and....

All players can get hurt - just because Ray Rice has never been out injured before doesn't mean he can't get his ankle rolled up on during the Ravens' Week 3 game. In fact he may be "due". (as a Ray Rice owner please don't smit me fantasy gods).

 

[Sabertooth]

Jordan Cameron is in the top 10 of TEs in FBG rankings right now. That's just silly.

 

[butcher boy]

I agree. There are a staggering number of guys injured every year. Which players would you say are at a low risk for injury? Who isn't "due?"

Pretty much all the elite QBs except RG3 and Stafford

...and Brady, and Manning, and Roethlisberger, and Brees, and Romo, and Vick, and....

All players can get hurt - just because Ray Rice has never been out injured before doesn't mean he can't get his ankle rolled up on during the Ravens' Week 3 game. In fact he may be "due". (as a Ray Rice owner please don't smit me fantasy gods).

Brady and Brees have both played 16 game seasons the last 3 years, Romo the last 2. I don't tag any extra injury risk to these 2. Manning still has a small asterisk at this point but playing 16 games + playoffs last year helps his case a lot. Roethlisberger gets hurt but he also plays through pain a lot which helps his case. He's also not elite anymore and neither is Vick.

 

[Instinctive]

I agree that injury proneness is many times factored into ADP, it's just not factored in enough IMO for a handful of guys. Mathews and McFadden are examples of this to me. They need to fall a few more rounds at least, for me to consider drafting them which is why I include them in my bust list.

Their injury history can't be ignored, but there's a lot of luck involved in winning at this hobby. Players who "never" get hurt sometimes do, and sometimes "injury prone" players blow the doors off their ADP. Schaub 2009, Stafford 2011, Calvin 2010, Andre last year, Beanie Wells 2011, Fred Taylor for several seasons, Reggie Bush in Miami, etc, etc, etc.

IF those players don't get injured their owners have a great shot at dominating their league. I know this because I've taken on that risk with those guys listed above and won with them.

I think there's already a thread for this... My apologies.

Re: Calvin Johnson 2010

This is just one perfect example of exactly why I think it is asinine, and a little borderline moronic in 95+% of cases, to try and predict injury or create the "injury prone" tag. Is Greg Oden injury prone? Yes - he puts an inordinate amount of weight onto a frame that under our gravitational conditions faces an excessive amount of stress. Most football players aren't 7 feet tall though (none of them are, I believe).

If Calvin Johnson was injury prone because of who he is, then he still would be. Injury prone, as it is currently used, is code for: "that guy has missed games in the most recent seasons," or even "one time that guy missed games in a couple seasons in a row, even though he hasn't in ages (see: Schaub, Matt).

Players, for the most part, aren't more likely to get hurt than others based on who they are. I'm open to the argument that Vick is more likely to get hurt than Newton because he opens himself to bigger hits, or that RBs are more likely to get hurt than WRs because they get hit so many more times...but calling people injury prone is closing your eyes to opportunity and reacting to past emotional feelings when a guy was on your team and missed an important game.

 

[butcher boy]

Players, for the most part, aren't more likely to get hurt than others based on who they are. I'm open to the argument that Vick is more likely to get hurt than Newton because he opens himself to bigger hits, or that RBs are more likely to get hurt than WRs because they get hit so many more times...but calling people injury prone is closing your eyes to opportunity and reacting to past emotional feelings when a guy was on your team and missed an important game.

This is what I disagree with. Proneness to injury is definitely real IMO and it could be due to things like a player having a smaller frame, less tendon flexibility, poor conditioning/training, poor reaction times, playing style, toughness, etc etc, Is it easy to pinpoint which one of these is the case in any given guy who can never stay healthy? No, but you don't have to. I'm more inclined to believe that its due to one of the reasons above than chalking it up to bad luck as to why guys like Mathews and McFadden can't stay healthy. I think to dismiss all injuries as bad luck is dangerous.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'd say the whole "injury prone" thing is self-correcting in that it is already reflected in the ADP. And if the guy stays healthy you now have added value.

 

[Angry Beavers]

white star

 

[Instinctive]

Players, for the most part, aren't more likely to get hurt than others based on who they are. I'm open to the argument that Vick is more likely to get hurt than Newton because he opens himself to bigger hits, or that RBs are more likely to get hurt than WRs because they get hit so many more times...but calling people injury prone is closing your eyes to opportunity and reacting to past emotional feelings when a guy was on your team and missed an important game.

This is what I disagree with. Proneness to injury is definitely real IMO and it could be due to things like a player having a smaller frame, less tendon flexibility, poor conditioning/training, poor reaction times, playing style, toughness, etc etc, Is it easy to pinpoint which one of these is the case in any given guy who can never stay healthy? No, but you don't have to. I'm more inclined to believe that its due to one of the reasons above than chalking it up to bad luck as to why guys like Mathews and McFadden can't stay healthy. I think to dismiss all injuries as bad luck is dangerous.

That's my point - this process of "danger" is why it creates value. We ignore what the data says about games missed (within positions) because we're risk averse by nature. It's a cognitive bias against risk being combined with a recency bias.

You're welcome to believe I guy like Ryan Mathews just has the weakest clavicles of any NFL player. I'm going to say you're wrong, and believe that he got unlucky twice in one year.

Not to mention, even if injury proneness was real...the tag would be applied so incredibly more than it should be that you should still draft all those guys at their ADP. Calvin Johnson, Matt Schaub, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, etc...most players in the last decade who have been called injury prone have turned out to be just fine.

Thin about it like a used car. Some used cars are lemons. Overwhelmingly, most used cars are not. But ALL of them get lowered in value because they might be a lemon. This doesn't necessarily make sense, because most of the time you end up getting a good deal buying a used car. You should take advantage of that, as opposed to only buying new cars.

Used cars = players previously injured, by the way.

 

[Leonidas]

Is Darren McFadden really just that unlucky?

 

[butcher boy]

Players, for the most part, aren't more likely to get hurt than others based on who they are. I'm open to the argument that Vick is more likely to get hurt than Newton because he opens himself to bigger hits, or that RBs are more likely to get hurt than WRs because they get hit so many more times...but calling people injury prone is closing your eyes to opportunity and reacting to past emotional feelings when a guy was on your team and missed an important game.

This is what I disagree with. Proneness to injury is definitely real IMO and it could be due to things like a player having a smaller frame, less tendon flexibility, poor conditioning/training, poor reaction times, playing style, toughness, etc etc, Is it easy to pinpoint which one of these is the case in any given guy who can never stay healthy? No, but you don't have to. I'm more inclined to believe that its due to one of the reasons above than chalking it up to bad luck as to why guys like Mathews and McFadden can't stay healthy. I think to dismiss all injuries as bad luck is dangerous.

That's my point - this process of "danger" is why it creates value. We ignore what the data says about games missed (within positions) because we're risk averse by nature. It's a cognitive bias against risk being combined with a recency bias.

You're welcome to believe I guy like Ryan Mathews just has the weakest clavicles of any NFL player. I'm going to say you're wrong, and believe that he got unlucky twice in one year.

Not to mention, even if injury proneness was real...the tag would be applied so incredibly more than it should be that you should still draft all those guys at their ADP. Calvin Johnson, Matt Schaub, Fred Taylor, Steven Jackson, Andre Johnson, etc...most players in the last decade who have been called injury prone have turned out to be just fine.

Thin about it like a used car. Some used cars are lemons. Overwhelmingly, most used cars are not. But ALL of them get lowered in value because they might be a lemon. This doesn't necessarily make sense, because most of the time you end up getting a good deal buying a used car. You should take advantage of that, as opposed to only buying new cars.

Used cars = players previously injured, by the way.

With the used car analogy, that's why car fax was invented. To help you look at that car's history and see if it's had problems, has been well maintained, etc. to help you possibly avoid buying a lemon.

Also, I'm not lowering the value of ALL players who get hurt like you suggest. As it stands, I can probably count the number of players I give an injury prone tag to on one hand. Most injuries are flukes I will agree. I just don't think an extensive history should be ignored and attributed to luck when there are valid reasons why someone might get hurt more than others.

 

[Leonidas]

With the used car analogy, that's why car fax was invented. To help you look at that car's history and see if it's had problems, has been well maintained, etc. to help you possibly avoid buying a lemon.

Also, I'm not lowering the value of ALL players who get hurt like you suggest. As it stands, I can probably count the number of players I give an injury prone tag to on one hand. Most injuries are flukes I will agree. I just don't think an extensive history should be ignored and attributed to luck when there are valid reasons why someone might get hurt more than others.

Good post

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I agree. There are a staggering number of guys injured every year. Which players would you say are at a low risk for injury? Who isn't "due?"

Pretty much all the elite QBs except RG3 and Stafford

...and Brady, and Manning, and Roethlisberger, and Brees, and Romo, and Vick, and....

All players can get hurt - just because Ray Rice has never been out injured before doesn't mean he can't get his ankle rolled up on during the Ravens' Week 3 game. In fact he may be "due". (as a Ray Rice owner please don't smit me fantasy gods).

Brady and Brees have both played 16 game seasons the last 3 years, Romo the last 2. I don't tag any extra injury risk to these 2. Manning still has a small asterisk at this point but playing 16 games + playoffs last year helps his case a lot. Roethlisberger gets hurt but he also plays through pain a lot which helps his case. He's also not elite anymore and neither is Vick.

They were when they got hurt.

 

[Anarchy99]

Welker catches a slant for 5 yards.

Amendola catches a slant for 5 yards.

Put me down for Murray, McFadden, Vick, Amendola missing significant time this year. IMO, I think certain players are writing cheques their bodies can't cash, though I'm not sure how to empirically prove this is the case.

I call shenanigans on this one. Total number of serious injuries over the past 4 years: Amendola 2, Welker 1.

Amendola had a dislocated elbow and missed 15 games that year as the injury occurred in Game 1 of the season. The following season, he dislocated his clavicle, which cost him a month. Those 2 injuries accounted for 19 of the 20 games Amendola has missed over his career. IIRC, he had a foot injury later on that did not cause him to miss much time.

Welker tore his ACL in the LAST game of the season one year, but because of timing he did not miss any regular season games because of it.

However, the perception is that Amendola is an injury waiting to happen and Welker is a pillar of good health. Yet over his career, Welker has been on the injury report, missed some minor time, or played at less than 100% due to toe, abdomen, quadriceps, calf, shoulder, additional knee, neck, rib, concussion, and ankle injuries. Some how, no one realizes or cares about that. In the eyes of many, Amendola is a huge injury risk and Welker never even gets brought up as being an despite being 4 years than Amendola..

 

[Leonidas]

Welker catches a slant for 5 yards.

Amendola catches a slant for 5 yards.

Put me down for Murray, McFadden, Vick, Amendola missing significant time this year. IMO, I think certain players are writing cheques their bodies can't cash, though I'm not sure how to empirically prove this is the case.

I call shenanigans on this one. Total number of serious injuries over the past 4 years: Amendola 2, Welker 1.

Amendola had a dislocated elbow and missed 15 games that year as the injury occurred in Game 1 of the season. The following season, he dislocated his clavicle, which cost him a month. Those 2 injuries accounted for 19 of the 20 games Amendola has missed over his career. IIRC, he had a foot injury later on that did not cause him to miss much time.

Welker tore his ACL in the LAST game of the season one year, but because of timing he did not miss any regular season games because of it.

However, the perception is that Amendola is an injury waiting to happen and Welker is a pillar of good health. Yet over his career, Welker has been on the injury report, missed some minor time, or played at less than 100% due to toe, abdomen, quadriceps, calf, shoulder, additional knee, neck, rib, concussion, and ankle injuries. Some how, no one realizes or cares about that. In the eyes of many, Amendola is a huge injury risk and Welker never even gets brought up as being an despite being 4 years than Amendola..

It isn't news that people don't really care about being listed on the injury report when you go out and perform on game day anyway.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?

I think he's a bit over valued, but I wouldn't classify him a bust. I think he'll be more of a "I wish I got a little more out of my 1st rounder."

 

[EBF]

Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?

I think he's a bit over valued, but I wouldn't classify him a bust. I think he'll be more of a "I wish I got a little more out of my 1st rounder."

Someone who's going to carry the ball 300+ times and catch 40-50+ passes is basically bust-proof.

He will pretty much need to get injured to finish outside the top 7-8 RBs this season.

 

[Kenny Powers]

MJD - This is as much based on the RBs going around him as anything, but I think the only reason he's still considered a late 2nd rounder is because of his past. Bad team, bad offense, no thanks. And getting back to the RBs going around him, SJax, CJ1K, and Ridley are the 3 going ahead of him. MUCH less risk with those guys who all really have as high of a ceiling as a 2013 MJD does. Id also prefer a reliable RB like Gore or Bush who are going shortly after MJD.

DMC - See MJD basically. Bad team, bad offense, cant stay healthy. Cant believe this guy is still a 3rd round pick, I guess people hoping for another 2010 season, but he has been RB34 and RB28 (3.3 YPC last year) the last 2 years, and is going as a top 20 RB still this year. Once again, give me a reliable guy going around him like Bush or Sproles who still have some upside.

Larry Fitz - Despite over 150 targets last year, couldnt even finish as a top 40 WR. Palmer is an upgrade, but Fitz's scoring opportunities will still be limited. He has a lower floor, by far, than any WR taken remotely close to him. There are literally 10 WRs going after him that I would take before him. How he is going as the 7th WR off the board is beyond me.

James Jones - His 14 TDs last year are as fluky as a stat as I can think of from last year, or really any year. Rodgers #3 WR certainly has value, but this guy is being drafted as a borderline WR2. I expect the RBs to have more TDs this year in GB. Id be happy to get Jordy (who I think is 1 of the most undervalued players this year) or Randall The TD Robber Cobber, but I'll pass on Jones and let someone else hope he approaches his 2013 statline.

Kyle Rudolph - MIN added Jennings and Patterson, Wright has another year to develop. His 9 TDs were only surpassed by Gronk last year at the TE position, and were half of Ponder's TDs. That plus the new competition for targets tells me it will be hard to come close to repeating his numbers last year, which still only had him end up as TE11. His current ADP is TE6, no thanks.

Did you just use the words "reliable" and "Bush" together in two sentences?

You can't really use 150 targets as your basis on Fitz. Anyone that watched the Cardinals last year knows about 80 of those were uncatchable. Thats like saying Jupiter doesn't have the size to be a good target because I threw a rock at it 150 times.

In the last 2 years when Bush was the featured RB, he finished as RB13 and RB14. Inconsistent, yes, but I expect him to be more stable on a much better offense this year.

Thats fine and all with the targets, there are plenty of very good WRs being drafted after Fitz though, so while I like the talent, the cost/risk to take him makes absolutely no sense.

That is almost the absolute most consistent possible outcome.

Look at his game logs from last year. Obviously I didnt mean inconsistency from year to year when he's finished as a high RB2 the 2 years he's had the opportunity to be a starter.

He had 8 games with less than 7pts last year (and since he gets considerable production in the receiving game, thats pretty bad). While his 2011 season was a little more "consistent", he had only 1 double digit week in the first 7 games.

Im high on Bush this year as it appears you are as well based on another thread, thats why I said he makes much more sense than MJD or DMC. I brought up the game to game inconsistency thing because Shutout called me out on him being reliable, and recently that is the only way he hasnt been reliable.

 

[Ilov80s]

MJD - This is as much based on the RBs going around him as anything, but I think the only reason he's still considered a late 2nd rounder is because of his past. Bad team, bad offense, no thanks. And getting back to the RBs going around him, SJax, CJ1K, and Ridley are the 3 going ahead of him. MUCH less risk with those guys who all really have as high of a ceiling as a 2013 MJD does. Id also prefer a reliable RB like Gore or Bush who are going shortly after MJD.

DMC - See MJD basically. Bad team, bad offense, cant stay healthy. Cant believe this guy is still a 3rd round pick, I guess people hoping for another 2010 season, but he has been RB34 and RB28 (3.3 YPC last year) the last 2 years, and is going as a top 20 RB still this year. Once again, give me a reliable guy going around him like Bush or Sproles who still have some upside.

Larry Fitz - Despite over 150 targets last year, couldnt even finish as a top 40 WR. Palmer is an upgrade, but Fitz's scoring opportunities will still be limited. He has a lower floor, by far, than any WR taken remotely close to him. There are literally 10 WRs going after him that I would take before him. How he is going as the 7th WR off the board is beyond me.

James Jones - His 14 TDs last year are as fluky as a stat as I can think of from last year, or really any year. Rodgers #3 WR certainly has value, but this guy is being drafted as a borderline WR2. I expect the RBs to have more TDs this year in GB. Id be happy to get Jordy (who I think is 1 of the most undervalued players this year) or Randall The TD Robber Cobber, but I'll pass on Jones and let someone else hope he approaches his 2013 statline.

Kyle Rudolph - MIN added Jennings and Patterson, Wright has another year to develop. His 9 TDs were only surpassed by Gronk last year at the TE position, and were half of Ponder's TDs. That plus the new competition for targets tells me it will be hard to come close to repeating his numbers last year, which still only had him end up as TE11. His current ADP is TE6, no thanks.

Did you just use the words "reliable" and "Bush" together in two sentences?

You can't really use 150 targets as your basis on Fitz. Anyone that watched the Cardinals last year knows about 80 of those were uncatchable. Thats like saying Jupiter doesn't have the size to be a good target because I threw a rock at it 150 times.

In the last 2 years when Bush was the featured RB, he finished as RB13 and RB14. Inconsistent, yes, but I expect him to be more stable on a much better offense this year.

Thats fine and all with the targets, there are plenty of very good WRs being drafted after Fitz though, so while I like the talent, the cost/risk to take him makes absolutely no sense.

That is almost the absolute most consistent possible outcome.

Look at his game logs from last year. Obviously I didnt mean inconsistency from year to year when he's finished as a high RB2 the 2 years he's had the opportunity to be a starter.

He had 8 games with less than 7pts last year (and since he gets considerable production in the receiving game, thats pretty bad). While his 2011 season was a little more "consistent", he had only 1 double digit week in the first 7 games.

Im high on Bush this year as it appears you are as well based on another thread, thats why I said he makes much more sense than MJD or DMC. I brought up the game to game inconsistency thing because Shutout called me out on him being reliable, and recently that is the only way he hasnt been reliable.

Ok, that does make sense. The odd thing about Bush the last two years in Miami was that he actually didn't catch that many passes. 78 over 2 seasons. Look at Javid Best's two years with Detroit. He had 85 receptions in two years despite playing in 10 less games than Bush did. I think the increase in targets in the passing game will make Bush more consistent from game to game.

 

[Cato]

Welker catches a slant for 5 yards.

Amendola catches a slant for 5 yards.

Put me down for Murray, McFadden, Vick, Amendola missing significant time this year. IMO, I think certain players are writing cheques their bodies can't cash, though I'm not sure how to empirically prove this is the case.

I call shenanigans on this one. Total number of serious injuries over the past 4 years: Amendola 2, Welker 1.

Amendola had a dislocated elbow and missed 15 games that year as the injury occurred in Game 1 of the season. The following season, he dislocated his clavicle, which cost him a month. Those 2 injuries accounted for 19 of the 20 games Amendola has missed over his career. IIRC, he had a foot injury later on that did not cause him to miss much time.

Welker tore his ACL in the LAST game of the season one year, but because of timing he did not miss any regular season games because of it.

However, the perception is that Amendola is an injury waiting to happen and Welker is a pillar of good health. Yet over his career, Welker has been on the injury report, missed some minor time, or played at less than 100% due to toe, abdomen, quadriceps, calf, shoulder, additional knee, neck, rib, concussion, and ankle injuries. Some how, no one realizes or cares about that. In the eyes of many, Amendola is a huge injury risk and Welker never even gets brought up as being an despite being 4 years than Amendola..

That's fair, I may be jumping the gun on that one. Until it happens/doesn't happen a few more times, I guess call it a baseless hunch for now.

I stand by Murray, McFadden, Vick, I suppose if any of them play the average # of games played for their position, I'll need to re-think my position.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?

I think he's a bit over valued, but I wouldn't classify him a bust. I think he'll be more of a "I wish I got a little more out of my 1st rounder."

Someone who's going to carry the ball 300+ times and catch 40-50+ passes is basically bust-proof.

He will pretty much need to get injured to finish outside the top 7-8 RBs this season.

I agree he's virtually "bust proof" outside of injury of course, but he could disappoint a bit. The team added two FB hybrid types in Mike James and Peyton Hillis that could be used at the GL. It's no given that they will be, but it does seem like a possibility.

 

[Khy]

Am I on an island in thinking that Doug Martin is supremely overvalued right now?

I think he's a bit over valued, but I wouldn't classify him a bust. I think he'll be more of a "I wish I got a little more out of my 1st rounder."

Someone who's going to carry the ball 300+ times and catch 40-50+ passes is basically bust-proof.

He will pretty much need to get injured to finish outside the top 7-8 RBs this season.

I agree he's virtually "bust proof" outside of injury of course, but he could disappoint a bit. The team added two FB hybrid types in Mike James and Peyton Hillis that could be used at the GL. It's no given that they will be, but it does seem like a possibility.

I'm of the strong opinion that last year was a fluke for Martin. And when I say fluke I don't mean I think he'll be a bust... but watching him play and looking at his inconsistency (33% of his yards and TDs in 2 games). I just don't see him repeating last year again... if ever. I honestly feel he'll never eclipse what he did last season. I'm not saying he's going to disappear off the face of the earth like Olandis Gary or something. I just think he's going to come back down to earth and be your above average Top 5-8 RB for the rest of his career. This will be the last year people consider him at 1.01. The fact that a lot of people are saying they're considering drafting him at 1.01 I think he is certainly in bust territory. If you draft a RB at 1.01 you're expecting him to finish at RB1-3. If he falls outside of that or god forbid outside of the Top 5 then he's almost certainly a bust. At least in my mind? I see him finishing somewhere between RB 4-8 this season. I honestly think you'll see 3 of Charles, AP, McCoy, Spiller, T Rich finish above him in PPR and in non-ppr I think you can add Alfred Morris and Marshawn Lynch to the mix of the conversation of people who may finish over him this season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

My picks:

C.J. Spiller - I think Spiller is a great talent and is awesome to watch, especially once he gets in open space, but given that he is a mid first rounder is just about every mock draft right now, I just don't see him living up to that this year. Kevin Kolb as the Bills QB scares the hell out of me - if he couldn't produce with Larry Fitzgerald as his number 1 WR, how is gonna do it without him?. Ryan Fitzpatrick was erratic and turnover-happy, but at least he could move the ball all day and help the offense pile up yards. I am not convinced Kolb will be able to do the same, and if he doesn't, teams will jam the box to stop the running game and force Kolb to make them pay. I think Spiller is great enough to still fight through it and potentially be a top 12 RB, thanks to a handful of big games, but I just don't see him being the week in and week out stud that you expect out of a RB you take in the middle of the first round.

Ray Rice - The fact that he has slipped to the bottom of the first round in a lot of mock drafts tells me that a lot of people are also very nervous about this year, and there is much to be nervous about it: the Ravens passing game lost two big weapons, Bernard Pierce has looked great and will get plenty of touches and the Ravens look like a team that will suffer the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. I see Rice still having a solid season, but his days of being a top 5 fantasy RB might be over.

Cam Newton - His strong finish last year has many thinking he turned the corner as a passer and will take it to the next level, but I am not convinced. His threat as a runner always it possible for him to have good to great fantasy weeks even if he has a bad throwing day, so there is that, but I am just seeing him go as a top 5 QB in many mocks, and with the QB position so deep this year, I just don't see spending a top draft pick or a lot of auction money on a guy with his potential for inconsistency.

Brandon Marshall - Okay, I know Jay Cutler loves this guy and loves to throw him the ball all day and every day, but with a new coach in town, I think they will make a concerted effort to get other players more involved in the passing game on a regular basis. Marshall's numbers will still be damn good, but I think a lot of FF owners this year are gonna be left chasing last year's numbers.

Reggie Wayne - the Colts will still throw it a ton, but with the emergence of Ty Hilton, the TEs likely be used more and DHB possibly stepping up to be an occasional deep threat, I see Wayne's piece of the receiving pie in Indy not being nearly what it was last year. He wasn't nearly as productive in the second half of 2012 as he was in the first half, and I think that trend will continue in 2013.

Four weeks in, my Spiller and Rice picks look right on the money. I am sure some will blame it on injuries, but it is what it is.

Cam has only played three games, but has has two okay weeks and one monster week.

Marshall has been about what I thought he'd be: still damn good, but not as dominant as last year. Not a bust though, as he is still top 10 among WRs.

Wayne has still been good.

 

[ponchsox]

Great call on Spiller. Now how much will gold be worth in 2 years?

 

[Grahamburn]

1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.

So basically you're in the injury prediction business?

Well injuries are a main factor in guys not living up to their ADP.

And if you or I or he could predict which guys would/wouldn't get hurt every year we'd never lose at this hobby.

Well, yes, given the staggering number of guys that get hurt every year, I AM in the injury prediction business. We all are. Or are you rating Darren McFadden based solely on talent? If you feel it impossible to predict injury or think it's an invalid methodology I'm sorry, but I generally try to look at durability as a factor -as was said earlier injury is a main factor in overall performance.

I agree. There are a staggering number of guys injured every year. Which players would you say are at a low risk for injury? Who isn't "due?"

Ray Rice.

Doug Martin

CJ Spiller

Roddy White

Calvin

AJ Green

Tony Gonzalez

Adrian Peterson

Greg Olsen

Pretty much all the elite QBs except RG3 and Stafford

Alfred Morris

Jamaal Charles

Is that enough material for you for a mocking post or two?

4 guys nicked up and a few more struggling off this list and we're only 4 weeks in.

 

[msudaisy26]

Jordan Cameron is in the top 10 of TEs in FBG rankings right now. That's just silly.

Hindsight is always 20-20 though.

 

[FUBAR]

Peyton

I'd like to read your analysis here.

Haven't put a whole lot of thought into my bust-list yet, but off-hand the guys I won't take at their ADP:

Aaron Rodgers - just see Green Bay running more. Still probably a top 4 guy but I project Brees, Peyton, and Newton all to finish ahead of him. Won't be shocked if Luck and Brady do too.

Russel Wilson - not a real bust, just to not reach expectations.

Lamar Miller - just don't see the hype.

Greg Jennings - is there a bigger downgrade than from Rodgers to Ponder? I always thought he outperformed his ability, which is great, but he won't be able to make Ponder better.

Not a bad list if I must say so myself.

Max?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Great call on Spiller. Now how much will gold be worth in 2 years?

Haha. But I can't pat myself on the back too much, as I thought Chris Johnson and Dwayne Bowe would both outperform their ADP.

 

[Sylira21]

1. Trent Richardson - low YPC, always nicked, plays for the Browns

2. Marshawn Lynch - with his style of running he is overdue for injury, and there are a number of quality options behind him

3. Colin Kaepernick - Not convinced he is a great passer. Crabtree injury hurts. SF is at heart a running team

4. Hakeem Nicks - Reuben Randle will take over for him this year - Nicks just can't stay on the field

5. Andre Johnson - played a full slate last year, great numbers. Should be due for a series of injuries this year. And watch out for DeAndre Hopkins.

So basically you're in the injury prediction business?

Well injuries are a main factor in guys not living up to their ADP.

And if you or I or he could predict which guys would/wouldn't get hurt every year we'd never lose at this hobby.

Well, yes, given the staggering number of guys that get hurt every year, I AM in the injury prediction business. We all are. Or are you rating Darren McFadden based solely on talent? If you feel it impossible to predict injury or think it's an invalid methodology I'm sorry, but I generally try to look at durability as a factor -as was said earlier injury is a main factor in overall performance.

I agree. There are a staggering number of guys injured every year. Which players would you say are at a low risk for injury? Who isn't "due?"

Ray Rice.

Doug Martin

CJ Spiller

Roddy White

Calvin

AJ Green

Tony Gonzalez

Adrian Peterson

Greg Olsen

Pretty much all the elite QBs except RG3 and Stafford

Alfred Morris

Jamaal Charles

Is that enough material for you for a mocking post or two?

4 guys nicked up and a few more struggling off this list and we're only 4 weeks in.

How does, say, Doug Martin struggling have any relevance to what we were discussing? Or is that not what you were trying to say?

Of my original bust list, so far Kaepernick Nicks and Richardson have underperformed ADP, Lynch has been great, and A Johnson pretty good (very good PPR, not so much in regular scoring). Meh. Sure wish I had spent money on Lynch instead of Rice (my 'non-injury-prone' guy, bleh). Of the four guys who have been 'nicked up' on the non-injury-prone list, they have missed a combined one game. Although Roddy White has been pretty worthless due to the ankle sprain. Morris will be fine, although the Skins offense has been terrible so far. Rice has been terrible even disregarding the hip. Spiller pretty much the same.

 

[Grahamburn]

You might have missed my original point.

 

[maxwelledison]

Peyton

I'd like to read your analysis here.

Haven't put a whole lot of thought into my bust-list yet, but off-hand the guys I won't take at their ADP:

Aaron Rodgers - just see Green Bay running more. Still probably a top 4 guy but I project Brees, Peyton, and Newton all to finish ahead of him. Won't be shocked if Luck and Brady do too.

Russel Wilson - not a real bust, just to not reach expectations.

Lamar Miller - just don't see the hype.

Greg Jennings - is there a bigger downgrade than from Rodgers to Ponder? I always thought he outperformed his ability, which is great, but he won't be able to make Ponder better.

Not a bad list if I must say so myself.

Max?

Ugh. I haven't seen the rest of my post but this is obviously brutal.

 

[aggie_dave]

I think Dwayne Bowe deserves to be on this list. He was suppose to have some great resurgence under Andy Reid's system, and now it's week 4 and his year really looks like toast.

 

[Tanner9919]

beginning to worry about Calvin Johnson..yes, he has been productive this season, but this knee thing has me worried.add to it the upcoming schedule, vs Cleveland and Haden this week, then Cincy, easy game vs. Dallas , bye, Chicago, Pitt & Ike Taylor, Bucs/Revis..

he is ranked 32nd in recs so far this season..:gulp:

I know Calvin is awesome..but I'm jumping ship..

 

[Khy]

I think Dwayne Bowe deserves to be on this list. He was suppose to have some great resurgence under Andy Reid's system, and now it's week 4 and his year really looks like toast.

See, I never thought Bowe would have a resurgence under Reid's system. I actually so far seem to have guessed Reid's gameplans almost 100% which would be the only people worth owning on the team were Alex Smith who would greatly out perform his ADP and push for a Top 12 finish this year. And Jamaal Charles who would finish the season as one of the Top 3 RBs easily. Smith has never shown nor claimed to have the type of arm and mentality that you'd want in a QB to make Bowe a real threat.

 

[doowain]

Jordan Cameron is in the top 10 of TEs in FBG rankings right now. That's just silly.

Hindsight is always 20-20 though.

I'm sure he'll spin it to say that he meant "It's silly he's not in the Top 5".

 

[Instinctive]

That's my point - this process of "danger" is why it creates value. We ignore what the data says about games missed (within positions) because we're risk averse by nature. It's a cognitive bias against risk being combined with a recency bias.


You're welcome to believe I guy like Ryan Mathews just has the weakest clavicles of any NFL player. I'm going to say you're wrong, and believe that he got unlucky twice in one year.

I agree that psychological factors play a role, but to dismiss multiple injuries by the same player as bad luck is to suggest that all players are built the same and play the same. They don't, and their bodies are different. You can't convince me that Roddy White is just luckier than Hakeem Nicks. Either Nicks' body is naturally more susceptible to injuries, or he's doing things on the field that increase his likelihood of getting hurt.

Can I convince you now?

(mostly joking. Is the fact that Ryan Mathews got a concussion making him more injury prone? Ahhhh!!!!!!!!)