What is the average 40 time of a starting NFL RB? (1 Viewer)

[TheBradyBunch]

Granted, 40 yard dash times are not always the best tool to use in predicting future success of an NFL rb, but it's definitely a major factor to consider for those of us in deep dynasty leagues trying to round out our rosters with possible long-term gems. I'm just curious, if you took all of the NFL starting backs combined, what do you think the average 40 time would be?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I have no idea, so naturally I'll guess, somewhere in the 4.42 - 4.46 range.

I expect the actual number to be surprising / very different from my guess...

 

[Bl Deep]

college combine #'s, or if they theorhetically timed them all right now.

I'd say the mean is at 4.48

 

[puckalicious]

By itself, it is a meaningless stat. The following "slow" guys all have had seasons of fantasy RB1/RB2 production.

Larry Johnson: 4.55

Travis Henry: 4.61

Brandon Jacobs: 4.56

Rudi Johnson: 4.57

Ricky Williams: 4.56

Frank Gore: 4.58

Brian Westbrook: 4.57

These "fast" guys were either busts or a flash in the pan:

Trung Canidate: 4.44

Chris Henry: 4.4

Tatum Bell: 4.37

JJ Arrington: 4.4

Travis Minor: 4.44

Antonio Pittman: 4.4

40 times taken from nfldraftscout.com combine data.

 

[EBF]

About 4.50.

 

[corpcow]

So, inspired by this, I started a spreadsheet with these numbers for all starting (or RBBC) backs. I didn't have a chance to get data for everyone, but looking at 21 of the 37 I put on the list, we're looking at an average of 4.439 and a median of 4.45. Edge was 4.38 when he came in and obviously he's not that now, but justinteresting to see the distribution.

One thing that jumped out to me... obviously Chris Johnson is by far the fastest - the next fastest so far is McFadden. Assuming their 10 yr scores are taken from the scouting times, however, there's a stark difference on acceleration - i.e., what % of the 40 time is spent in the first 10 yards. (I didn't have shuttle or cone times for everyone, but obviously those are relevant here too).

McFadden's 10 yard dash is 1.5 secs - which is closer to what many of the RBs who ran 4.45-4.48 ran. Among the best in getting to full speed is Chris Johnson (bested only by Jonathan Stewart)... and Forte is up there as well. (Don't have 10 yd breakouts for Bush so I would guess he's up there too).

I'll try to finish this up when I get a chance sometime.

 

[two_dollars]

their 40 in full pads is more important bigger guys are less effected by the extra weight, the smaller quick guys get weighed down a bit more

 

[bjabrad]

So, inspired by this, I started a spreadsheet with these numbers for all starting (or RBBC) backs. I didn't have a chance to get data for everyone, but looking at 21 of the 37 I put on the list, we're looking at an average of 4.439 and a median of 4.45. Edge was 4.38 when he came in and obviously he's not that now, but justinteresting to see the distribution.One thing that jumped out to me... obviously Chris Johnson is by far the fastest - the next fastest so far is McFadden. Assuming their 10 yr scores are taken from the scouting times, however, there's a stark difference on acceleration - i.e., what % of the 40 time is spent in the first 10 yards. (I didn't have shuttle or cone times for everyone, but obviously those are relevant here too). McFadden's 10 yard dash is 1.5 secs - which is closer to what many of the RBs who ran 4.45-4.48 ran. Among the best in getting to full speed is Chris Johnson (bested only by Jonathan Stewart)... and Forte is up there as well. (Don't have 10 yd breakouts for Bush so I would guess he's up there too).I'll try to finish this up when I get a chance sometime.

I like your reasoning and method. You might also look at two of the other combine drills (shuttle and cone). I can't remember which one would be more appropriate but hopefully someone else will weigh in.

 

[puckalicious]

So, inspired by this, I started a spreadsheet with these numbers for all starting (or RBBC) backs. I didn't have a chance to get data for everyone, but looking at 21 of the 37 I put on the list, we're looking at an average of 4.439 and a median of 4.45. Edge was 4.38 when he came in and obviously he's not that now, but justinteresting to see the distribution.One thing that jumped out to me... obviously Chris Johnson is by far the fastest - the next fastest so far is McFadden. Assuming their 10 yr scores are taken from the scouting times, however, there's a stark difference on acceleration - i.e., what % of the 40 time is spent in the first 10 yards. (I didn't have shuttle or cone times for everyone, but obviously those are relevant here too). McFadden's 10 yard dash is 1.5 secs - which is closer to what many of the RBs who ran 4.45-4.48 ran. Among the best in getting to full speed is Chris Johnson (bested only by Jonathan Stewart)... and Forte is up there as well. (Don't have 10 yd breakouts for Bush so I would guess he's up there too).I'll try to finish this up when I get a chance sometime.

I like your reasoning and method. You might also look at two of the other combine drills (shuttle and cone). I can't remember which one would be more appropriate but hopefully someone else will weigh in.

Trust me you won't find anything meaningful. Most of the highly touted guys don't even run those drills so you won't have much data to begin with. The NFL is littered with RB's that have these "measurables" but didn't add up to squat. And there are plenty of RB's that were not workout warriors but flat-out produced when it mattered on the field.

 

[corpcow]

So, inspired by this, I started a spreadsheet with these numbers for all starting (or RBBC) backs. I didn't have a chance to get data for everyone, but looking at 21 of the 37 I put on the list, we're looking at an average of 4.439 and a median of 4.45. Edge was 4.38 when he came in and obviously he's not that now, but justinteresting to see the distribution.One thing that jumped out to me... obviously Chris Johnson is by far the fastest - the next fastest so far is McFadden. Assuming their 10 yr scores are taken from the scouting times, however, there's a stark difference on acceleration - i.e., what % of the 40 time is spent in the first 10 yards. (I didn't have shuttle or cone times for everyone, but obviously those are relevant here too). McFadden's 10 yard dash is 1.5 secs - which is closer to what many of the RBs who ran 4.45-4.48 ran. Among the best in getting to full speed is Chris Johnson (bested only by Jonathan Stewart)... and Forte is up there as well. (Don't have 10 yd breakouts for Bush so I would guess he's up there too).I'll try to finish this up when I get a chance sometime.

I like your reasoning and method. You might also look at two of the other combine drills (shuttle and cone). I can't remember which one would be more appropriate but hopefully someone else will weigh in.

Trust me you won't find anything meaningful. Most of the highly touted guys don't even run those drills so you won't have much data to begin with. The NFL is littered with RB's that have these "measurables" but didn't add up to squat. And there are plenty of RB's that were not workout warriors but flat-out produced when it mattered on the field.

Yeah, I know - there isn't a lot of data there for that. It seems that the 10 yd is one of the things that was most available (probably because almost all of them run the 40, and it's timed as part of that)..

 

[bjabrad]

So, inspired by this, I started a spreadsheet with these numbers for all starting (or RBBC) backs. I didn't have a chance to get data for everyone, but looking at 21 of the 37 I put on the list, we're looking at an average of 4.439 and a median of 4.45. Edge was 4.38 when he came in and obviously he's not that now, but justinteresting to see the distribution.One thing that jumped out to me... obviously Chris Johnson is by far the fastest - the next fastest so far is McFadden. Assuming their 10 yr scores are taken from the scouting times, however, there's a stark difference on acceleration - i.e., what % of the 40 time is spent in the first 10 yards. (I didn't have shuttle or cone times for everyone, but obviously those are relevant here too). McFadden's 10 yard dash is 1.5 secs - which is closer to what many of the RBs who ran 4.45-4.48 ran. Among the best in getting to full speed is Chris Johnson (bested only by Jonathan Stewart)... and Forte is up there as well. (Don't have 10 yd breakouts for Bush so I would guess he's up there too).I'll try to finish this up when I get a chance sometime.

I like your reasoning and method. You might also look at two of the other combine drills (shuttle and cone). I can't remember which one would be more appropriate but hopefully someone else will weigh in.

Trust me you won't find anything meaningful. Most of the highly touted guys don't even run those drills so you won't have much data to begin with. The NFL is littered with RB's that have these "measurables" but didn't add up to squat. And there are plenty of RB's that were not workout warriors but flat-out produced when it mattered on the field.

Wow, I can't believe I bought into all the importance that NFL football men put into combine and pro day drills. They must be as stupid as me.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Within a couple hundreths of 4.50

 

[DawnBTVS]

Wow, I can't believe I bought into all the importance that NFL football men put into combine and pro day drills. They must be as stupid as me.

Measurables are indeed important but I know some coaches use the Combine more for the interview process and don't pay much attention to the workout numbers. In all honesty, I think the workout numbers may nudge a guy up/down a round but these scouts/coaches are studying college game film for months. If they have to rely on workout numbers for their pick, I'd be a little worried about their overall judgement.I look at the workout numbers as basically a tool to confirm suspicions (i.e. has a guy healed from injury, does a guy run faster than he looks in game speed or vice versa, etc.)

 

[Burning Sensation]

4.45-4.47