What is TO worth in a dynasty PPR league? (1 Viewer)

[Ripleys]

I hate Dallas. A lot. I own TO, and want to trade him for another WR. So far, people in my league are telling me TO is worth, oh, Jerry Rice during his last few years in Oakland or Seattle. Did something happen this off season that made him near worthless now?

I thought he was in phenomenal shape, and actually had a good relationship with Romo. He also was the 3rd highest scoring WR in our league last year.

Has anyone traded him lately, and if so, what for?

 

[TD5150]

What's going on? I'm having the same problem.

I honeslty think he has 2-3 more top 7 WR years left in him but people in my league value him at about the same level as Donald Driver or Santana Moss.

I don't get it. I have to assume they are just trying to drive the price down with the "old" card.

He is the perfect "get me over the hump" player. Several teams in every league should fall all over each other trying to trade for him so they can win the championship now.

If you don't get the price you are looking for now wait until your draft gets closer, the price should go back up.

 

[rzrback77]

In the Mock Draft Forums the Pre Draft Survivor Leagues are on-going and he went as the second, second, third,and fifth WR at 18, 18, 17, and 25 overall. It seems he is highly valued for redraft in 08, but according to your comments, not worth much in a trade in dynasty.

I would suggest identifying a loaded team that is a little light on the WR and seek a trade with them. It would seem he would be worth more for a team set to compete over the next two or three years.

 

[Rockchild]

In the Mock Draft Forums the Pre Draft Survivor Leagues are on-going and he went as the second, second, third,and fifth WR at 18, 18, 17, and 25 overall. It seems he is highly valued for redraft in 08, but according to your comments, not worth much in a trade in dynasty.

I would suggest identifying a loaded team that is a little light on the WR and seek a trade with them. It would seem he would be worth more for a team set to compete over the next two or three years.

I think this is the reality for good and stud older players in general. Unless a team is one player short of a championship type of team it's hard to sell the virtue of these players to a rebuilding team.

 

[jeter23]

There is a dynasty mock going on right now here---> http://football29.myfantasyleague.com/2008...=65049&O=17

TO went early in the 4th round as the 15th WR. Other guys close to him were Roy, Holmes, Plax, Bowe and AGonzo.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

It's better to bail on a player too early than too late, and I can definitely see the rationale for bailing on TO. I would target owners who have sentimental ties to him (Cowboys fan, Eagles fan that remember the success but doesn't hold a grudge) or just a contrarian who like the attitude players. I don't think you'll get fair value looking just at his production. I think the personality is part of the package, like it or not.

 

[FUBAR]

There is a dynasty mock going on right now here---> http://football29.myfantasyleague.com/2008...=65049&O=17

TO went early in the 4th round as the 15th WR. Other guys close to him were Roy, Holmes, Plax, Bowe and AGonzo.

This seems about right, the only problem with trading him in established leagues is your trading partners are limited and may not have those WRs. They probably have a mid-late 1st, which I don't think is enough. If it's an IDP league, I might trade him for something like a mid-late 1st and 2nd, or include a 09 1st.

 

[rzrback77]

It's better to bail on a player too early than too late, and I can definitely see the rationale for bailing on TO. I would target owners who have sentimental ties to him (Cowboys fan, Eagles fan that remember the success but doesn't hold a grudge) or just a contrarian who like the attitude players. I don't think you'll get fair value looking just at his production. I think the personality is part of the package, like it or not.

I don't understand this approach at all. There is strong support for TO to finish top five in 08 and with his fitness and drive, I could see him doing well for at least two years. I will likely hold him and get good mileage for two to three years rather than sell him cheap, even if he winds up retiring and getting dumped from my roster.

 

[gianmarco]

It's better to bail on a player too early than too late, and I can definitely see the rationale for bailing on TO. I would target owners who have sentimental ties to him (Cowboys fan, Eagles fan that remember the success but doesn't hold a grudge) or just a contrarian who like the attitude players. I don't think you'll get fair value looking just at his production. I think the personality is part of the package, like it or not.

I don't understand this approach at all. There is strong support for TO to finish top five in 08 and with his fitness and drive, I could see him doing well for at least two years. I will likely hold him and get good mileage for two to three years rather than sell him cheap, even if he winds up retiring and getting dumped from my roster.

 

[DWidmar]

First off, not a ppr league but it is a dynasty league. TO was shopped a little by his owner and was found to have little to no value. But as someone above suggested, you have to find just that one person who is interested in him for whatever reason. TO was traded for Plaxico and a first. I think the owner who traded away Plax was frustrated with his ankle last year and it seemed everytime he started Plax he was a dud and when he didnt he was a stud. He had just given up on Plax. I think it was way too much for TO but it wasn't my trade.

 

[supa mann]

I have shopped TO around just to gauge interest and have received mixed responses. The main trouble I am finding, other than age, is finding a team that believes they will contend this season and can use TO to get them over the top. The less fortunate teams in the league are rebuilding and TO just doesn't help them that much. For those teams it makes more sense to trade for a player who is likely cheaper like a Holmes or even a Lee Evans, etc. and hope to get more years of production.

I picked TO up for a pretty fair price last season because the TO owner had shopped him and been lowballed by half the league. I think I gave a little more because I am an obvious Dallas fan and also own Romo. So, part of my trouble in trading him, is I believe he has at least 2 more elite years left and that has tremendous value to me. It's almost worth just hanging on to him even if I get ZERO value from him in 2-3 years because of the production he will bring for those 2-3 years.

I also believe that many people in dynasty leagues put too much value in youth. I am always trading and "trying" to stay young but looking for deals on guys like Tony Gonzales and TO to win NOW. There is no guarantee any of these young players will give you 10 years of solid production.

If you can't get solid value from TO just before the draft, I would say hang on to him for the first six games of the season and start to see what the playoff picture looks like in your league and then maximize his value to a team just missing that one piece. Easier said than done though, since it will be hard to let TO go when he's bringing YOUR team 16-20 pts/week.

 

[Fodasme69]

I hate Dallas. A lot. I own TO, and want to trade him for another WR. So far, people in my league are telling me TO is worth, oh, Jerry Rice during his last few years in Oakland or Seattle. Did something happen this off season that made him near worthless now? I thought he was in phenomenal shape, and actually had a good relationship with Romo. He also was the 3rd highest scoring WR in our league last year. Has anyone traded him lately, and if so, what for?

Traded TO and Edge for the 1.2 and Jamal Lewis

 

[millertyme1]

Drafting T.O. in a dynasty league is like buying a new car, leaving the lot and trying to sell it the next day.

 

[FUBAR]

Drafting T.O. in a dynasty league is like buying a new reliable used car at a discount, leaving the lot and trying to sell it the next day.

fixed

 

[supa mann]

Depends on the car. We talking a Chevy Suburban here?

 

[JPeso]

Drafting T.O. in a dynasty league is like buying a new reliable used car at a discount, leaving the lot and trying to sell it the next day.

fixed

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

It's better to bail on a player too early than too late, and I can definitely see the rationale for bailing on TO. I would target owners who have sentimental ties to him (Cowboys fan, Eagles fan that remember the success but doesn't hold a grudge) or just a contrarian who like the attitude players. I don't think you'll get fair value looking just at his production. I think the personality is part of the package, like it or not.

I don't understand this approach at all. There is strong support for TO to finish top five in 08 and with his fitness and drive, I could see him doing well for at least two years. I will likely hold him and get good mileage for two to three years rather than sell him cheap, even if he winds up retiring and getting dumped from my roster.

That's what's so fun about dynasty. Everyone can do it their way. I'm not sure what you mean by "cheap" but if I get more than I think he's worth, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. I don't have much confidence that he will finish top five in 08, so I'd prefer to trade him to somebody who does, or someone who likes him. If I'm wrong I still got something for a guy I didn't believe in, and if I'm right I improved my team by following my hunches. I don't care about strong support. I care about what I think, and I don't want to be the guy watching him pout or injured or under-performing in my lineup. Feel free to bump this post throughout the season, though. I've been wrong before.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I traded Eli Manning to Get TO last offseason and never looked back. I'm on the TO wagon until the wheels fall off.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Normally I am the first to trade a player when they start to age and move past their statistical peak, but TO might be an exception. At this point, I doubt you will get value for him, so it might be best to keep him for a year or two and try to win another title. After he starts to slow, you may still get something for him due to name recognition. I think it is always good to see what you can obtain for him, but the time to sell TO was before last season...

 

[Turbo Punch]

TO is worth the about the same as Marvin Harrison was going into last year and look what happened to him. Not predicting injury but the wheels can fall of real quick at their age. TO is just not worth the risk. With his personality I do not think he is the kind of player to age gracefully. When his skills diminish and he can't make plays that he used to make look routine there will be problems.

 

[supa mann]

TO is worth the about the same as Marvin Harrison was going into last year and look what happened to him. Not predicting injury but the wheels can fall of real quick at their age. TO is just not worth the risk. With his personality I do not think he is the kind of player to age gracefully. When his skills diminish and he can't make plays that he used to make look routine there will be problems.

Physically, I am not in the least concerned about TO. He abused DB's all last year and I can't see that changing over the next couple of seasons. He is a physical freak. Just look at the dude and also look at how he heals from injury. TO has never been short on work ethic or drive. You can argue that emotionally he's a fruitcake and I don't think you will get too many people who would disagree (myself included). However, he seems to love life in Dallas and feels appreciated. He loves his QB. So, I think his production outweights the risk. You just have to determine how many more solid years he has left and put a value on that. For me, I am willing to give a pretty good amount for a solid chance at a WR that produces at elite levels. I have not seen much redraft info on TO, but where is he going in most drafts?

 

[gianmarco]

I'd question any redraft with him going lower than 3rd WR. He's just too good, even at his age.

 

[FUBAR]

TO is worth the about the same as Marvin Harrison was going into last year and look what happened to him. Not predicting injury but the wheels can fall of real quick at their age. TO is just not worth the risk. With his personality I do not think he is the kind of player to age gracefully. When his skills diminish and he can't make plays that he used to make look routine there will be problems.

I think Marvin is part of the reason TO is undervalued right now. If the most recent example of a stud WR growing old were Jerry Rice (still highly productive at 40), many would see this differently.

 

[The_Head_Ape]

What's going on? I'm having the same problem.I honeslty think he has 2-3 more top 7 WR years left in him but people in my league value him at about the same level as Donald Driver or Santana Moss. I don't get it. I have to assume they are just trying to drive the price down with the "old" card. He is the perfect "get me over the hump" player. Several teams in every league should fall all over each other trying to trade for him so they can win the championship now.If you don't get the price you are looking for now wait until your draft gets closer, the price should go back up.

TD5150, please tell us what you are asking in return . That may explain the situation.

 

[moderated]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

 

[gianmarco]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

 

[moderated]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

No he's not, at least not his trade value, maybe to you he is.1/2+ of the people in the league won't even be in the market for an old WR, and the others most likely won't give up any more than that.In the deals i've seen for TO he doesn't even sniff a high 1st. i'm just telling you if you want to trade him your most likely looking at a late 1st round rookie pick, no more. Go ahead and shop him, you'll see i'm right.No one wants to break the bank for a 35 yr old WR, the history of guys that age isn't good.

 

[gianmarco]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

No he's not, at least not his trade value, maybe to you he is.1/2+ of the people in the league won't even be in the market for an old WR, and the others most likely won't give up any more than that.

In the deals i've seen for TO he doesn't even sniff a high 1st. i'm just telling you if you want to trade him your most likely looking at a late 1st round rookie pick, no more. Go ahead and shop him, you'll see i'm right.

No one wants to break the bank for a 35 yr old WR, the history of guys that age isn't good.

I'm sorry, but I disagree completely. His trade value may not be high because of his age, but it is NOT worth a 1.9. Just because that may be all you can get for him does NOT mean that's his worth. Let me also add that there is a thread started by Beto a couple years ago trying to show value between rookie picks and vet draft picks. The 1.9, if I recall correctly, was something like a 9th round vet pick. You don't seriously think TO lasts until the 9th in a startup draft, do you? If I was solid at RB and owned the 1.2 or 1.3, I would EASILY trade that for TO if I needed a WR. 1.9 is simply not close.

ETA-- Here is the link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=dynasty

I was wrong, the 1.9 is equivalent to an 11th round vet pick. Even worse. Using those #'s in his thread, the 1.5 or 1.6 are close assuming TO would be a 5th round pick. He's probably a little higher, but I can see that. I think 1.4 to 1.5 would be close, personally. 1.9 is not close.

 

[alg]

I think 1.09 is too much for him. I wouldn't do it. Do you think someone will trade you Lee Evans for him even after his miserable year? No chance. I'd be lucky to get that for Holt who is 3-4 years younger.

This speaks to the many dynasty valuation threads we have had. I always argued that the old vets were being valued too high. Many don't want to hear it. But here you are scratching your head, and wondering why no one will trade you Lynch or MJD for TO. Can you hear me now? You can argue till you are blue in the face about how much he is worth, but you are not going to get a high 1st for him unless you play with relatively weak owners. Consider yourself lucky if you can get 1.09.

 

[moderated]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

No he's not, at least not his trade value, maybe to you he is.1/2+ of the people in the league won't even be in the market for an old WR, and the others most likely won't give up any more than that.

In the deals i've seen for TO he doesn't even sniff a high 1st. i'm just telling you if you want to trade him your most likely looking at a late 1st round rookie pick, no more. Go ahead and shop him, you'll see i'm right.

No one wants to break the bank for a 35 yr old WR, the history of guys that age isn't good.

I'm sorry, but I disagree completely. His trade value may not be high because of his age, but it is NOT worth a 1.9. Just because that may be all you can get for him does NOT mean that's his worth. Let me also add that there is a thread started by Beto a couple years ago trying to show value between rookie picks and vet draft picks. The 1.9, if I recall correctly, was something like a 9th round vet pick. You don't seriously think TO lasts until the 9th in a startup draft, do you? If I was solid at RB and owned the 1.2 or 1.3, I would EASILY trade that for TO if I needed a WR. 1.9 is simply not close.

ETA-- Here is the link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=dynasty

I was wrong, the 1.9 is equivalent to an 11th round vet pick. Even worse. Using those #'s in his thread, the 1.5 or 1.6 are close assuming TO would be a 5th round pick. He's probably a little higher, but I can see that. I think 1.4 to 1.5 would be close, personally. 1.9 is not close.

Big fan of Beto, but his system breaks down badly at the later rookie picks. The vets you can get in the 11th round wouldn't get late 1st round rookie picks in the real world, it just won't happen.I'm telling you what is reality when it comes to existing dynasty leagues and TO's value. I haven't seen TO traded for a 1.2/1.3 rookie pick in any respectable leagues, this year or last.

If your not looking to trade a player their value is basically pointless, but i'm telling you that if your looking to trade TO you won't sniff a high 1st, that's the truth.

Show me any money dynasty leagues where TO fetched a 1.1-1.3 rookie pick, it won't happen.

You, as a TO owner might thing he is worth a top rookie pick, but it's irrelevant since you won't be able to get it.

 

[moderated]

I think 1.09 is too much for him. I wouldn't do it. Do you think someone will trade you Lee Evans for him even after his miserable year? No chance. I'd be lucky to get that for Holt who is 3-4 years younger.This speaks to the many dynasty valuation threads we have had. I always argued that the old vets were being valued too high. Many don't want to hear it. But here you are scratching your head, and wondering why no one will trade you Lynch or MJD for TO. Can you hear me now? You can argue till you are blue in the face about how much he is worth, but you are not going to get a high 1st for him unless you play with relatively weak owners. Consider yourself lucky if you can get 1.09.

Those who own TO can hem and haw about how valuable he is, but the trade market doesn't agree.

 

[gianmarco]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

No he's not, at least not his trade value, maybe to you he is.1/2+ of the people in the league won't even be in the market for an old WR, and the others most likely won't give up any more than that.

In the deals i've seen for TO he doesn't even sniff a high 1st. i'm just telling you if you want to trade him your most likely looking at a late 1st round rookie pick, no more. Go ahead and shop him, you'll see i'm right.

No one wants to break the bank for a 35 yr old WR, the history of guys that age isn't good.

I'm sorry, but I disagree completely. His trade value may not be high because of his age, but it is NOT worth a 1.9. Just because that may be all you can get for him does NOT mean that's his worth. Let me also add that there is a thread started by Beto a couple years ago trying to show value between rookie picks and vet draft picks. The 1.9, if I recall correctly, was something like a 9th round vet pick. You don't seriously think TO lasts until the 9th in a startup draft, do you? If I was solid at RB and owned the 1.2 or 1.3, I would EASILY trade that for TO if I needed a WR. 1.9 is simply not close.

ETA-- Here is the link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=dynasty

I was wrong, the 1.9 is equivalent to an 11th round vet pick. Even worse. Using those #'s in his thread, the 1.5 or 1.6 are close assuming TO would be a 5th round pick. He's probably a little higher, but I can see that. I think 1.4 to 1.5 would be close, personally. 1.9 is not close.

Big fan of Beto, but his system breaks down badly at the later rookie picks. The vets you can get in the 11th round wouldn't get late 1st round rookie picks in the real world, it just won't happen.I'm telling you what is reality when it comes to existing dynasty leagues and TO's value. I haven't seen TO traded for a 1.2/1.3 rookie pick in any respectable leagues, this year or last.

If your not looking to trade a player their value is basically pointless, but i'm telling you that if your looking to trade TO you won't sniff a high 1st, that's the truth.

Show me any money dynasty leagues where TO fetched a 1.1-1.3 rookie pick, it won't happen.

You, as a TO owner might thing he is worth a top rookie pick, but it's irrelevant since you won't be able to get it.

In one of my leagues, I don't own TO. I have AP and Westbrook at RB. I could use WR help. If I owned the 1.2 or lower, I'd give it up for TO without thinking twice. It's a respectable league. Just because you haven't seen it or don't think his value is there does not make it so. In that same league, the owner of the 1.8 offered it to me for H. Ward. That's from one of the top owners in the league.

You may not be seeing that kind of trade, but it all depends on situations. Someone with a high rookie pick like 1.2-1.4 would have to be weak at WR and strong at RB as well as a contender this year in order for it to happen. Those conditions aren't going to be met all the time so you may not see it that much. However, that doesn't mean his value is the 1.9. I can give you examples where the 1.2 for TO makes sense as well as for a much lower 1st. If a team is in complete rebuilding mode, I can see them giving TO up for the 1.8 or 1.9 in a "get whatever you can and rebuild". But again, that doesn't mean that's what his value is. He is worth much more than any player you can get with that pick.

 

[Rockchild]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

No he's not, at least not his trade value, maybe to you he is.1/2+ of the people in the league won't even be in the market for an old WR, and the others most likely won't give up any more than that.

In the deals i've seen for TO he doesn't even sniff a high 1st. i'm just telling you if you want to trade him your most likely looking at a late 1st round rookie pick, no more. Go ahead and shop him, you'll see i'm right.

No one wants to break the bank for a 35 yr old WR, the history of guys that age isn't good.

I'm sorry, but I disagree completely. His trade value may not be high because of his age, but it is NOT worth a 1.9. Just because that may be all you can get for him does NOT mean that's his worth. Let me also add that there is a thread started by Beto a couple years ago trying to show value between rookie picks and vet draft picks. The 1.9, if I recall correctly, was something like a 9th round vet pick. You don't seriously think TO lasts until the 9th in a startup draft, do you? If I was solid at RB and owned the 1.2 or 1.3, I would EASILY trade that for TO if I needed a WR. 1.9 is simply not close.

ETA-- Here is the link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=dynasty

I was wrong, the 1.9 is equivalent to an 11th round vet pick. Even worse. Using those #'s in his thread, the 1.5 or 1.6 are close assuming TO would be a 5th round pick. He's probably a little higher, but I can see that. I think 1.4 to 1.5 would be close, personally. 1.9 is not close.

Big fan of Beto, but his system breaks down badly at the later rookie picks. The vets you can get in the 11th round wouldn't get late 1st round rookie picks in the real world, it just won't happen.I'm telling you what is reality when it comes to existing dynasty leagues and TO's value. I haven't seen TO traded for a 1.2/1.3 rookie pick in any respectable leagues, this year or last.

If your not looking to trade a player their value is basically pointless, but i'm telling you that if your looking to trade TO you won't sniff a high 1st, that's the truth.

Show me any money dynasty leagues where TO fetched a 1.1-1.3 rookie pick, it won't happen.

You, as a TO owner might thing he is worth a top rookie pick, but it's irrelevant since you won't be able to get it.

What I took from Beto's system was not the trade value but where the player selected at that draft spot would be selected in a startup draft.

 

[gianmarco]

He's worth about a late 1st round rookie pick in a dynasty league...around pick 9-14.

I wouldn't dream of giving up TO for a rookie pick like 1.9. He is worth FAR more than that.

No he's not, at least not his trade value, maybe to you he is.1/2+ of the people in the league won't even be in the market for an old WR, and the others most likely won't give up any more than that.

In the deals i've seen for TO he doesn't even sniff a high 1st. i'm just telling you if you want to trade him your most likely looking at a late 1st round rookie pick, no more. Go ahead and shop him, you'll see i'm right.

No one wants to break the bank for a 35 yr old WR, the history of guys that age isn't good.

I'm sorry, but I disagree completely. His trade value may not be high because of his age, but it is NOT worth a 1.9. Just because that may be all you can get for him does NOT mean that's his worth. Let me also add that there is a thread started by Beto a couple years ago trying to show value between rookie picks and vet draft picks. The 1.9, if I recall correctly, was something like a 9th round vet pick. You don't seriously think TO lasts until the 9th in a startup draft, do you? If I was solid at RB and owned the 1.2 or 1.3, I would EASILY trade that for TO if I needed a WR. 1.9 is simply not close.

ETA-- Here is the link: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=dynasty

I was wrong, the 1.9 is equivalent to an 11th round vet pick. Even worse. Using those #'s in his thread, the 1.5 or 1.6 are close assuming TO would be a 5th round pick. He's probably a little higher, but I can see that. I think 1.4 to 1.5 would be close, personally. 1.9 is not close.

Big fan of Beto, but his system breaks down badly at the later rookie picks. The vets you can get in the 11th round wouldn't get late 1st round rookie picks in the real world, it just won't happen.I'm telling you what is reality when it comes to existing dynasty leagues and TO's value. I haven't seen TO traded for a 1.2/1.3 rookie pick in any respectable leagues, this year or last.

If your not looking to trade a player their value is basically pointless, but i'm telling you that if your looking to trade TO you won't sniff a high 1st, that's the truth.

Show me any money dynasty leagues where TO fetched a 1.1-1.3 rookie pick, it won't happen.

You, as a TO owner might thing he is worth a top rookie pick, but it's irrelevant since you won't be able to get it.

What I took from Beto's system was not the trade value but where the player selected at that draft spot would be selected in a startup draft.

No difference between the 2. Pretend the 1.9 rookie pick was Matt Forte. So let's say, using Beto's system, he would be drafted around 11.1 in a startup draft. Let's say in that exact same startup draft TO was picked with the 6.1 pick. Draft is now over. Would you trade TO for Matt Forte? Of course not, or you would have drafted Matt Forte at the 6.1. I don't think his system breaks down at all with later picks. I had a startup dynasty draft last year and it comes out VERY close when going back and looking where rookies went. The 1.9 last year in a few leagues was Chris Henry and he went around 11.1 in our startup league. No one would trade TO for Chris Henry last year nor this year. That's why TO went in our 4th round last year. And he would go higher this year.

Bottomline, if you have a startup draft that includes vets and rookies, I GUARANTEE that TO will go before the 9th rookie is drafted. In fact, I would be surprised if more than 4-5 rookies were drafted before him. Thus, if the guy who took the 9th rookie then offered him to TO, he would be laughed at. The reason is, there would probably be at least 4-5 rounds difference between the 2. A late 1st round rookie pick is one of the most overrated picks in a dynasty.

 

[gianmarco]

This is the information from my league that was a startup last year. It's pretty self-explanatory. Based on that, who would not have trade Russell, Booker, Bush, Olsen, Meachem, or Brandon Jackson for TO last year? Both right after the draft, during the year, or even now? I know we like to think all of the rookies this year are going to be studs, but they won't. As good and deep as this class is, most likely, the guys at the end of the draft are more likely to bust than to pan out. Happens every year.

Pick Ovr   Rnd   Rook NFL  Name	  Pos Pos Rnk1	13   2.01  1.01  1  A. Peterson  RB  12	16   2.04  1.02  1  Lynch		RB  23	29   3.05  1.03  1  C. Johnson   WR  14	76   7.04  1.04  1  B. Jackson   RB  35	86   8.02  1.05  1  R. Meachem   WR  26	90   8.06  1.06  1  G. Olsen	 TE  17	94   8.10  1.07  4  M. Bush	  RB  48   111  10.03  1.08  3  L. Booker	RB  59   112  10.04  1.09  1  J. Russell   QB  110  120  10.12  1.10  2  Jarrett	  WR  311  122  11.02  1.11  1  Ginn		 WR  412  124  11.04  1.12  1  Bowe		 WR  513  128  11.08  2.01  2  C. Henry	 RB  614  129  11.09  2.02  2  S. Smith	 WR  615  130  11.10  2.03  3  Hunt		 RB  716  135  12.03  2.04  2  Irons		RB  8

 

[Stitch]

I'm sorry, but I disagree completely. His trade value may not be high because of his age, but it is NOT worth a 1.9. Just because that may be all you can get for him does NOT mean that's his worth. Let me also add that there is a thread started by Beto a couple years ago trying to show value between rookie picks and vet draft picks. The 1.9, if I recall correctly, was something like a 9th round vet pick. You don't seriously think TO lasts until the 9th in a startup draft, do you?



If I was solid at RB and owned the 1.2 or 1.3, I would EASILY trade that for TO if I needed a WR. 1.9 is simply not close.

Oh come on now.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

glanmarco I generally respect most of your stuff. However, I think you are missing the point on this one. TO is now 35. He's going to break down sooner rather than later. That means he's only valuable to someone that feels he can contend this year. I don't think anyone in their right mind would trade for a 35 year old WR hoping he could get them over the top at 36.

My 12 team league has maybe half the league that can legitimately say they can contend for the title next year. Almost all of those guys are picking in the second half of the rookie draft. Only a few of them need a WR. So now were down to 2-3 teams that would be willing to deal for him.

The problem this year is that it is a strong year for RBs in the draft. Those of us that have been picking in the later parts of RD 1 in rookie drafts for years have been looking forward to taking a RB with a solid chance with their pick.

TO may be a stronger play than Forte, but the idea of giving up a young 1st round dynasty RB before he has a chance to play is a tough thing for most dynasty players. Most have visions of Frank Gore or Marion Barber with their late 1st round picks. Add in the fact that TO hasn't played a full season since 2002, and you have your reasons for why TO isn't worth a high dynasty pick.

 

[Mikey16x]

Having the same problem but not worrying... I know TO will be productive for me for at least the next 2 seasons. The guy has an extremely vigorous work out plan and is always in top shape. I own him.. but I am not a worried owner.

 

[womb]

First of all, in a redraft league TO goes as a top 3 WR. So, all those who are out there debating concerns on loss of production due to possible injury and stuff this year, you should know that you are representing a really small minority of the FF world.

So, the real question is the trade off between his future production and the one that one could have alternatively by not trading for TO - that is the potential to lose on a Gore or Bowe who look to be in a spot to give years of boost.

If I am in a major rebuilding mode in a dynasty PPR, I would not want to trade for TO and actually trade him out. For all other purposes, I would offer anything in the lower half of the first round of my rookie draft for him, simply because the odds of finding success is not that high. Here is the zealots rookie draft average of positions 6-12 of the past 3 years:

07 - QB Quinn, WR Meachem, WR Bowe, RB Henry, WR Rice, RB Irons

06 - QB Leinart, QB Young, QB Cutler, WR Holmes, LB Hawk, WR Chad Jackson

05 - WR Mike Williams, RB Shelton, WR Mark Clayton, QB Smith, RB Gore, RB Clarett

In a perfect 20-20 hindsight trade the guys holding the rights to Gore, Holmes and Bowe will decline a trade for TO; unless at a 6pt pass-TD league owners of Leinart, Young and Cutler would part ways for TO; and the TO owners would reject and sometimes deject all the other guys. In very poor statistics, that translates to chances of 17% of success, 17% of doing decent & 66% of not doing so good. What I do not understad is everyone here thinks they can pull te successful guy out and if that is really the case, who makes the other picks?

1.09 - no thanks. Unless I am rebuiding, I will take the high chances of at least one year of top 3 WR production.

 

[Gary Davenport]

Part of the problem (IMO) is that Rookie Picks are overvalued period. Everyone wants a shiny new doodad to add to their teams, and ADP going berserk last year amplified it tenfold.

I traded the 1.01 this year along with Matt Beerbong for Carson Palmer, Bobby Engram (another example of a "help me now" WR), and the 2.03 and couldn't be happier. I didn't have a last place team in 2007 (once again IMO) so much as a team that was ravaged by injuries with one "hole"...QB. Had a chance to fill it and did.

All that aside, as others have said, it's unlikely that you'll be able to get what you think you "should" for Owens unless there's that perfect storm owner in your league that has a need at WR and a surplus at another slot/high pick he's willing to deal to try to make a run now.

Best bet? Hang on to him, at least short-term.

 

[Yitbos69]

I owned TO in two Dynasty leagues and I was actively trading him in both leagues. I was able to trade TO/JLewis for BJacobs/Holt in one league....really needed to get younger in that league. In the second league I have not been able to work out a trade and really don't think I will.....people want to get TO for nothing and as I read someone say he is not worth 1.09 rookie pick(that has to be a joke)...I would rather have TO die on my roster in 2-3 years than give a top 5 WR away in a PPR dynasty league.

 

[Crippler]

First of all, in a redraft league TO goes as a top 3 WR. So, all those who are out there debating concerns on loss of production due to possible injury and stuff this year, you should know that you are representing a really small minority of the FF world. So, the real question is the trade off between his future production and the one that one could have alternatively by not trading for TO - that is the potential to lose on a Gore or Bowe who look to be in a spot to give years of boost.If I am in a major rebuilding mode in a dynasty PPR, I would not want to trade for TO and actually trade him out. For all other purposes, I would offer anything in the lower half of the first round of my rookie draft for him, simply because the odds of finding success is not that high. Here is the zealots rookie draft average of positions 6-12 of the past 3 years:07 - QB Quinn, WR Meachem, WR Bowe, RB Henry, WR Rice, RB Irons06 - QB Leinart, QB Young, QB Cutler, WR Holmes, LB Hawk, WR Chad Jackson05 - WR Mike Williams, RB Shelton, WR Mark Clayton, QB Smith, RB Gore, RB ClarettIn a perfect 20-20 hindsight trade the guys holding the rights to Gore, Holmes and Bowe will decline a trade for TO; unless at a 6pt pass-TD league owners of Leinart, Young and Cutler would part ways for TO; and the TO owners would reject and sometimes deject all the other guys. In very poor statistics, that translates to chances of 17% of success, 17% of doing decent & 66% of not doing so good. What I do not understad is everyone here thinks they can pull te successful guy out and if that is really the case, who makes the other picks?1.09 - no thanks. Unless I am rebuiding, I will take the high chances of at least one year of top 3 WR production.

Great post. I think you will find the same going all the way up to the 1.4 pick in most cases. Success rate of rookie drafts is pretty damn awful. TO is worth the 1.1 in any league. But the issue is the 1.1 team probably sucked and is not thinking playoffs, so they have no interest. Same with most teams with high picks. TO is the type of player that will win you a championship and in a 12 team league, that should come around once every 12 years. I think youth is easy to acquire. Think of guys like Colston and Grant that came off of waiver wire. I got Grant last year in a 24 team league from WW. But studs are hard to get in the end. I would think it would take a deal like 1.9 plus a guy like Sidney Rice etc to get a TO from a team. Why trade him for the 1.9 only and take your less than 20% chance in the end of finding a successful playerAdd some more data going back from my leagues history2004 - Julius Jones. Reggie Williams, Tatum Bell, Kellen Winslow, Phillip Rivers, Lee Evans, Big Ben2003 - Carson Palmer, Kyle Boller, Justin Fargas, Chris Brown, Bryant Johnson, Kelly Washington2002 - Antonio Bryant, Jabar Gaffney, Josh Reed, Ashley Lelie, Joey Harrington, Jeremy Shockey2001 - Kevan Barlow, James Jackson, Deuce McAllister, David Terrell, Lamont Jordan, Rod Gardner2000 - Travis Prentice, Plaxico Burress, Chad Pennington, Sylvestor Morris, Travis Taylor, Bubba Franks1999 - Duante Culpepper, Kevin Faulk., Cade McNown, David Boston, Torry Holt, Akili Smith1998 - Robert Edwards, Robert Holcombe, Fred Taylor, John Avery, Ahman Green, Kevin Dyson1997 - Troy Davis, Jim Druckemiller, Ike Hillard, Freddie Jones, Reidel Anthony, Rae Carruth

 

[Ripleys]

TO is now 35. He's going to break down sooner rather than later.

My question is, how do we know he's going to break down soon? Has he shown us that he's losing a step? No. Has he had any major injuries the last few years? No. (I don't consider the horse collar tackle he had in Philly by the dirty cheap POS Williams a sign that he's breaking down) While the typical WR does slow down at 34-35, TO is anything but typical. I can't think of one WR that has EVER played in the league that has his size, his strength, and his flexibility. The guy IS a freak. A little messed up in the head? Maybe. But perhaps one of the greatest physical specimens we've seen at his position. If Rice can play into his 40s, I'd bet TO can too.

 

[-OZ-]

I think 1.09 is too much for him. I wouldn't do it. Do you think someone will trade you Lee Evans for him even after his miserable year? No chance. I'd be lucky to get that for Holt who is 3-4 years younger.This speaks to the many dynasty valuation threads we have had. I always argued that the old vets were being valued too high. Many don't want to hear it. But here you are scratching your head, and wondering why no one will trade you Lynch or MJD for TO. Can you hear me now? You can argue till you are blue in the face about how much he is worth, but you are not going to get a high 1st for him unless you play with relatively weak owners. Consider yourself lucky if you can get 1.09.

Those who own TO can hem and haw about how valuable he is, but the trade market doesn't agree.

In a 32 team league (each player available twice)Oct 30 2007:OZ gave up Clayton, Michael TBB WRWilliams, Paul TEN WRYear 2008 Round 1 Draft Pick from OZ (1.31)Year 2009 Round 1 Draft Pick from Coney's Combo (1.03 in 2008, might be lower in 2009)forOwens, Terrell DAL WRHilliard, Ike TBB WRYear 2008 Round 2 Draft Pick from Rock Bottom (2.07)That's basically TO for the possible top pick in 2009. Maybe you think I overpaid and you'll call me a "weak owner", but TO was a huge part of why I made it to the championship game and tied for the top record overall - and I'm thinking he'll be a good reason I might make it there again this year. WRs are worth a lot more in this league than usual, so that does make a difference.

In one of my leagues, I don't own TO. I have AP and Westbrook at RB. I could use WR help. If I owned the 1.2 or lower, I'd give it up for TO without thinking twice. It's a respectable league. Just because you haven't seen it or don't think his value is there does not make it so.

When I traded for TO, Evans and Roy were having bad years, Walker was injured, and I needed a WR.It does come down to things perfectly aligning, but his value should be higher than a low 1st. In all honesty, somewhere between the price I paid and the 1.05.

 

[-OZ-]

I owned TO in two Dynasty leagues and I was actively trading him in both leagues. I was able to trade TO/JLewis for BJacobs/Holt in one league....really needed to get younger in that league. In the second league I have not been able to work out a trade and really don't think I will.....people want to get TO for nothing and as I read someone say he is not worth 1.09 rookie pick(that has to be a joke)...I would rather have TO die on my roster in 2-3 years than give a top 5 WR away in a PPR dynasty league.

Only problem I have with that trade is there's a decent chance both TO and Lewis are viable starters in FF longer than Holt and Jacobs.

 

[gianmarco]

I think 1.09 is too much for him. I wouldn't do it. Do you think someone will trade you Lee Evans for him even after his miserable year? No chance. I'd be lucky to get that for Holt who is 3-4 years younger.This speaks to the many dynasty valuation threads we have had. I always argued that the old vets were being valued too high. Many don't want to hear it. But here you are scratching your head, and wondering why no one will trade you Lynch or MJD for TO. Can you hear me now? You can argue till you are blue in the face about how much he is worth, but you are not going to get a high 1st for him unless you play with relatively weak owners. Consider yourself lucky if you can get 1.09.

Those who own TO can hem and haw about how valuable he is, but the trade market doesn't agree.

In a 32 team league (each player available twice)Oct 30 2007:OZ gave up Clayton, Michael TBB WRWilliams, Paul TEN WRYear 2008 Round 1 Draft Pick from OZ (1.31)Year 2009 Round 1 Draft Pick from Coney's Combo (1.03 in 2008, might be lower in 2009)forOwens, Terrell DAL WRHilliard, Ike TBB WRYear 2008 Round 2 Draft Pick from Rock Bottom (2.07)That's basically TO for the possible top pick in 2009. Maybe you think I overpaid and you'll call me a "weak owner", but TO was a huge part of why I made it to the championship game and tied for the top record overall - and I'm thinking he'll be a good reason I might make it there again this year. WRs are worth a lot more in this league than usual, so that does make a difference.

In one of my leagues, I don't own TO. I have AP and Westbrook at RB. I could use WR help. If I owned the 1.2 or lower, I'd give it up for TO without thinking twice. It's a respectable league. Just because you haven't seen it or don't think his value is there does not make it so.

When I traded for TO, Evans and Roy were having bad years, Walker was injured, and I needed a WR.It does come down to things perfectly aligning, but his value should be higher than a low 1st. In all honesty, somewhere between the price I paid and the 1.05.

Thank you, OZ. That is almost exactly the same type of trade I made last year to acquire TO in one league. Most looked at my team at the time and thought it wouldn't be a contender. I thought it was missing a WR1. I owned two 2008 1st round picks and traded both along with a 2008 2nd and Jerry Porter for TO. My team went 12-1 and just got horribly unlucky in the playoffs. TO was a MAJOR reason. As you said, he'll be a major reason why I can do it again this year.

 

[gianmarco]

glanmarco I generally respect most of your stuff. However, I think you are missing the point on this one. TO is now 35. He's going to break down sooner rather than later. That means he's only valuable to someone that feels he can contend this year. I don't think anyone in their right mind would trade for a 35 year old WR hoping he could get them over the top at 36. My 12 team league has maybe half the league that can legitimately say they can contend for the title next year. Almost all of those guys are picking in the second half of the rookie draft. Only a few of them need a WR. So now were down to 2-3 teams that would be willing to deal for him. The problem this year is that it is a strong year for RBs in the draft. Those of us that have been picking in the later parts of RD 1 in rookie drafts for years have been looking forward to taking a RB with a solid chance with their pick. TO may be a stronger play than Forte, but the idea of giving up a young 1st round dynasty RB before he has a chance to play is a tough thing for most dynasty players. Most have visions of Frank Gore or Marion Barber with their late 1st round picks. Add in the fact that TO hasn't played a full season since 2002, and you have your reasons for why TO isn't worth a high dynasty pick.

Kitrick, thanks for the kind words. There's no question that TO has a limited shelf life. And you are absolutely right that he's only valuable to someone that feels that they can contend. And those teams should be actively pursuing TO in every league. The fact that TO hasn't played a full season since 2002 should be 100% irrelevant. Look at his fantasy finishes. He has finished #2 the last 2 yrs in a row. He is still one of the most dominant fantasy players. As I stated above and I think most would agree with is that TO is still a top 5 WR this year in any redraft. I say top 3, but we'll give it a little more room. The big question is what about next year? Well, I don't know. But, I do know the guy is in unbelievable physical shape and if I had to bet, I think he continues production even next year. After that, I won't bother to speculate nor do I care. I currently see TO as having 2 yrs and that's it. However, I see those 2 yrs as being an elite 2 yrs.I posted a thread a couple days ago discussing just this. Guys like TO and Westbrook and LT who likely only have 2 yrs (or less) of production left, how do they compare to guys that are younger but have significantly less production? I look at it this way. Someone has to own TO in the league and someone is going to benefit from his production. If I'm a contender, I want that person to be me if I can get him a reasonable cost, even if I'm solid at WR. If I am, I can trade one of my other guys and get good value while TO is putting points up in my lineup.There is no question that TO is a difficult trade at this point. This happens to all older players. Any team that is a contender and owns him is not going to give him up for peanuts. In the league that I described above, my team is a monster and TO will rot on my roster because he's part of the reason why I'm a favorite to win this year. I also agree about the fact that most teams that are contenders likely have lower half picks. But, don't forget how so teams trade future picks. I'm sure there are a good # of teams that have acquired 2008 picks last year that turned out to be good picks. If they are already a contender and have a solid RB base, then I see no reason why they wouldn't give up that early pick for a guy like TO if he filled a major need. I know that not everyone agrees and would want him. That's fine. There are many dynasty owners that are "youth-blinded". There are others that welcome older but productive guys. I fall in the latter group. My team may not always be the youngest, but I'm able to keep putting out a winning team by acquiring these older guys then washing, repeating, and rinsing. With the prices I've seen thrown around, do you know how much it would cost you to acquire TO, Holt, and Marvin Harrison right now? Do you realize if Harrison does come back this year to form, that starting WR corp could be potentially devastating and win you a championship all by itself. And it would cost you peanuts. I'll take that group, even in a dynasty, over a younger group of Cotchery, Roddy White, Sidney Rice. It's just a different philosophy.But, to say TO's worth is the 1.9 pick is something I disagree with 100%. And to say you can't get more from him I disagree with 100%. I agree that you're probably not seeing much of it, but that's probably because of both the age phobia that a lot of owners have along with the limiting criteria of being a contending team, owning a good rookie pick, and being pretty solid at RB. That's a group in the minority, but it's a group that should consider adding TO IF you think he has 2 elite yrs left. I do.

 

[gianmarco]

First of all, in a redraft league TO goes as a top 3 WR. So, all those who are out there debating concerns on loss of production due to possible injury and stuff this year, you should know that you are representing a really small minority of the FF world. So, the real question is the trade off between his future production and the one that one could have alternatively by not trading for TO - that is the potential to lose on a Gore or Bowe who look to be in a spot to give years of boost.If I am in a major rebuilding mode in a dynasty PPR, I would not want to trade for TO and actually trade him out. For all other purposes, I would offer anything in the lower half of the first round of my rookie draft for him, simply because the odds of finding success is not that high. Here is the zealots rookie draft average of positions 6-12 of the past 3 years:07 - QB Quinn, WR Meachem, WR Bowe, RB Henry, WR Rice, RB Irons06 - QB Leinart, QB Young, QB Cutler, WR Holmes, LB Hawk, WR Chad Jackson05 - WR Mike Williams, RB Shelton, WR Mark Clayton, QB Smith, RB Gore, RB ClarettIn a perfect 20-20 hindsight trade the guys holding the rights to Gore, Holmes and Bowe will decline a trade for TO; unless at a 6pt pass-TD league owners of Leinart, Young and Cutler would part ways for TO; and the TO owners would reject and sometimes deject all the other guys. In very poor statistics, that translates to chances of 17% of success, 17% of doing decent & 66% of not doing so good. What I do not understad is everyone here thinks they can pull te successful guy out and if that is really the case, who makes the other picks?1.09 - no thanks. Unless I am rebuiding, I will take the high chances of at least one year of top 3 WR production.

Great post. I think you will find the same going all the way up to the 1.4 pick in most cases. Success rate of rookie drafts is pretty damn awful. TO is worth the 1.1 in any league. But the issue is the 1.1 team probably sucked and is not thinking playoffs, so they have no interest. Same with most teams with high picks. TO is the type of player that will win you a championship and in a 12 team league, that should come around once every 12 years. I think youth is easy to acquire. Think of guys like Colston and Grant that came off of waiver wire. I got Grant last year in a 24 team league from WW. But studs are hard to get in the end. I would think it would take a deal like 1.9 plus a guy like Sidney Rice etc to get a TO from a team. Why trade him for the 1.9 only and take your less than 20% chance in the end of finding a successful playerAdd some more data going back from my leagues history2004 - Julius Jones. Reggie Williams, Tatum Bell, Kellen Winslow, Phillip Rivers, Lee Evans, Big Ben2003 - Carson Palmer, Kyle Boller, Justin Fargas, Chris Brown, Bryant Johnson, Kelly Washington2002 - Antonio Bryant, Jabar Gaffney, Josh Reed, Ashley Lelie, Joey Harrington, Jeremy Shockey2001 - Kevan Barlow, James Jackson, Deuce McAllister, David Terrell, Lamont Jordan, Rod Gardner2000 - Travis Prentice, Plaxico Burress, Chad Pennington, Sylvestor Morris, Travis Taylor, Bubba Franks1999 - Duante Culpepper, Kevin Faulk., Cade McNown, David Boston, Torry Holt, Akili Smith1998 - Robert Edwards, Robert Holcombe, Fred Taylor, John Avery, Ahman Green, Kevin Dyson1997 - Troy Davis, Jim Druckemiller, Ike Hillard, Freddie Jones, Reidel Anthony, Rae Carruth

I agree 100%.1. There is his actual value.2. There is his overall average trade value.3. There is his trade value in YOUR league.All 3 of those could be very different. His actual value in terms of production is arguably a top 3 rookie pick. That could be debated, but if he's a top 5 WR for 2 yrs, that's reasonable. His overall trade value should be lower because of having limited shelf life. I would argue, as I said above, that's in the 1.4-1.5 range. And there is trade value in your league. That could be anywhere from the 1.1 to the 1.12 (or even lower). In your league, it's very possible that no one will give up anything higher than a 1.9 for him. And if that's the case, you need to look at that team and decide if that's the best option (probably do it if rebuilding, don't consider it if any way to contend). But I would be careful of stating #2 is in the range of 1.9 just because that's what's going on in #3 (in your league).

 

[Crippler]

I can say that even if rebuilding, that the 1.9 would be silly to take except in one case. I think you would hold him and hope for a better price as the season approaches or after a rookie like Forte's value goes down. Think of how low the value of most 1st round rookies are right now compared to a year ago. Than you get your Forte type plyaer and a 2009 1st in the end.

Now the question is what is the worth of the 1.3 to 1.2 or 1.1 if rebuilding because Owens will win you games. I think not much myself in the end but one could disagree on that.

 

[-OZ-]

glanmarco I generally respect most of your stuff. However, I think you are missing the point on this one. TO is now 35. He's going to break down sooner rather than later. That means he's only valuable to someone that feels he can contend this year. I don't think anyone in their right mind would trade for a 35 year old WR hoping he could get them over the top at 36.

My 12 team league has maybe half the league that can legitimately say they can contend for the title next year. Almost all of those guys are picking in the second half of the rookie draft. Only a few of them need a WR. So now were down to 2-3 teams that would be willing to deal for him.

The problem this year is that it is a strong year for RBs in the draft. Those of us that have been picking in the later parts of RD 1 in rookie drafts for years have been looking forward to taking a RB with a solid chance with their pick.

TO may be a stronger play than Forte, but the idea of giving up a young 1st round dynasty RB before he has a chance to play is a tough thing for most dynasty players. Most have visions of Frank Gore or Marion Barber with their late 1st round picks. Add in the fact that TO hasn't played a full season since 2002, and you have your reasons for why TO isn't worth a high dynasty pick.

Kitrick, thanks for the kind words. There's no question that TO has a limited shelf life. And you are absolutely right that he's only valuable to someone that feels that they can contend. And those teams should be actively pursuing TO in every league. The fact that TO hasn't played a full season since 2002 should be 100% irrelevant. Look at his fantasy finishes. He has finished #2 the last 2 yrs in a row. He is still one of the most dominant fantasy players. As I stated above and I think most would agree with is that TO is still a top 5 WR this year in any redraft. I say top 3, but we'll give it a little more room. The big question is what about next year? Well, I don't know. But, I do know the guy is in unbelievable physical shape and if I had to bet, I think he continues production even next year. After that, I won't bother to speculate nor do I care. I currently see TO as having 2 yrs and that's it. However, I see those 2 yrs as being an elite 2 yrs.

I posted a thread a couple days ago discussing just this. Guys like TO and Westbrook and LT who likely only have 2 yrs (or less) of production left, how do they compare to guys that are younger but have significantly less production? I look at it this way. Someone has to own TO in the league and someone is going to benefit from his production. If I'm a contender, I want that person to be me if I can get him a reasonable cost, even if I'm solid at WR. If I am, I can trade one of my other guys and get good value while TO is putting points up in my lineup.

There is no question that TO is a difficult trade at this point. This happens to all older players. Any team that is a contender and owns him is not going to give him up for peanuts. In the league that I described above, my team is a monster and TO will rot on my roster because he's part of the reason why I'm a favorite to win this year. I also agree about the fact that most teams that are contenders likely have lower half picks. But, don't forget how so teams trade future picks. I'm sure there are a good # of teams that have acquired 2008 picks last year that turned out to be good picks. If they are already a contender and have a solid RB base, then I see no reason why they wouldn't give up that early pick for a guy like TO if he filled a major need. I know that not everyone agrees and would want him. That's fine. There are many dynasty owners that are "youth-blinded". There are others that welcome older but productive guys. I fall in the latter group. My team may not always be the youngest, but I'm able to keep putting out a winning team by acquiring these older guys then washing, repeating, and rinsing.

With the prices I've seen thrown around, do you know how much it would cost you to acquire TO, Holt, and Marvin Harrison right now? Do you realize if Harrison does come back this year to form, that starting WR corp could be potentially devastating and win you a championship all by itself. And it would cost you peanuts. I'll take that group, even in a dynasty, over a younger group of Cotchery, Roddy White, Sidney Rice. It's just a different philosophy.

But, to say TO's worth is the 1.9 pick is something I disagree with 100%. And to say you can't get more from him I disagree with 100%. I agree that you're probably not seeing much of it, but that's probably because of both the age phobia that a lot of owners have along with the limiting criteria of being a contending team, owning a good rookie pick, and being pretty solid at RB. That's a group in the minority, but it's a group that should consider adding TO IF you think he has 2 elite yrs left. I do.

I agree, but why did you have to list 3/8 of my starting lineup? That's part of the theory though, if you have players like LT, Westbrook, TO, etc. you're either going to go "all in" for the immediate future, or try to sell parts off for youth while still contending. I'm attempting to do the latter, but it obviously makes more sense to keep the older studs and win now, given the limited trading partners.