What is TO worth in a dynasty PPR league? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Check out this poll and discussion

 

[agiffey]

Last year I traded my 1.3 pick and Berrian for TO to make a run at the championshp. I had the team to beat all season and then got screwed in week 15. Marion Barber 3.2 points, Chris Cooley 3.3 points, Osi Umenyiora 0 points (not even one freaking tackle), & TO 3.3 points. The team I traded TO to picked Marshawn Lynch with the 1.3 and came in second and won $800. :( This year I traded TO and Kitna for the 1.2 pick then packaged that pick and my 1.9 for the 1.1. Now I just have to wait and see who goes where.

 

[FUBAR]

Check out this poll and discussion

seems to indicate enough people prefer Westbrook/TO to Colston/Lynch that a pick shouldn't even be in this discussion. somewhat more generic poll

 

[gianmarco]

Last year I traded my 1.3 pick and Berrian for TO to make a run at the championshp. I had the team to beat all season and then got screwed in week 15. Marion Barber 3.2 points, Chris Cooley 3.3 points, Osi Umenyiora 0 points (not even one freaking tackle), & TO 3.3 points. The team I traded TO to picked Marshawn Lynch with the 1.3 and came in second and won $800. :( This year I traded TO and Kitna for the 1.2 pick then packaged that pick and my 1.9 for the 1.1. Now I just have to wait and see who goes where.

Both of those trades make sense to me. Kind of goes against the argument that you can't get a top 3 rookie pick for TO. It certainly wasn't Kitna that garnered that value. Again, I think these trades aren't going to be seen very often, but they are much closer to his actual value than a low 1st round pick in the 1.9 range.

 

[alg]

I think 1.09 is too much for him. I wouldn't do it. Do you think someone will trade you Lee Evans for him even after his miserable year? No chance. I'd be lucky to get that for Holt who is 3-4 years younger.

This speaks to the many dynasty valuation threads we have had. I always argued that the old vets were being valued too high. Many don't want to hear it. But here you are scratching your head, and wondering why no one will trade you Lynch or MJD for TO. Can you hear me now? You can argue till you are blue in the face about how much he is worth, but you are not going to get a high 1st for him unless you play with relatively weak owners. Consider yourself lucky if you can get 1.09.

Those who own TO can hem and haw about how valuable he is, but the trade market doesn't agree.

In a 32 team league (each player available twice)

Oct 30 2007:

OZ gave up

Clayton, Michael TBB WR

Williams, Paul TEN WR

Year 2008 Round 1 Draft Pick from OZ (1.31)

Year 2009 Round 1 Draft Pick from Coney's Combo (1.03 in 2008, might be lower in 2009)

for

Owens, Terrell DAL WR

Hilliard, Ike TBB WR

Year 2008 Round 2 Draft Pick from Rock Bottom (2.07)

That's basically TO for the possible top pick in 2009. Maybe you think I overpaid and you'll call me a "weak owner", but TO was a huge part of why I made it to the championship game and tied for the top record overall - and I'm thinking he'll be a good reason I might make it there again this year. WRs are worth a lot more in this league than usual, so that does make a difference.

In one of my leagues, I don't own TO. I have AP and Westbrook at RB. I could use WR help. If I owned the 1.2 or lower, I'd give it up for TO without thinking twice. It's a respectable league. Just because you haven't seen it or don't think his value is there does not make it so.

When I traded for TO, Evans and Roy were having bad years, Walker was injured, and I needed a WR.It does come down to things perfectly aligning, but his value should be higher than a low 1st. In all honesty, somewhere between the price I paid and the 1.05.

I don't know man. That looks like the kind of trade a "play for now" owner makes just before bailing on the league when it doesn't pan out. It turned out OK for you last year, but you probably mortgages some future as well.The goal of a FFB league is to win. But If the goal of a dynasty is to set your team up to win long term, then you did it a disservice.

The point of the discussion is not to suggest that people will never make such a trade. There are persuasive traders, different philosophies etc. I will quite emphatically suggest, however, that a good owner in a good league with that type of trading will get eaten alive over the long haul. You simply cannot trade premium picks for a player at the end of his career. Sure, maybe draft picks get over valued sometimes, but without one you will never get a crack at someone like ADP or DMAC this year. You don't get Fitz or CJ2 or Lynch or LT or anyone else with as high a probability of FFB stardom.

You are then the guy with M Harrison watching the guy with M Lynch put up 25-30 in the league championship.

 

[FUBAR]

I think 1.09 is too much for him. I wouldn't do it. Do you think someone will trade you Lee Evans for him even after his miserable year? No chance. I'd be lucky to get that for Holt who is 3-4 years younger.

This speaks to the many dynasty valuation threads we have had. I always argued that the old vets were being valued too high. Many don't want to hear it. But here you are scratching your head, and wondering why no one will trade you Lynch or MJD for TO. Can you hear me now? You can argue till you are blue in the face about how much he is worth, but you are not going to get a high 1st for him unless you play with relatively weak owners. Consider yourself lucky if you can get 1.09.

Those who own TO can hem and haw about how valuable he is, but the trade market doesn't agree.

In a 32 team league (each player available twice)

Oct 30 2007:

OZ gave up

Clayton, Michael TBB WR

Williams, Paul TEN WR

Year 2008 Round 1 Draft Pick from OZ (1.31)

Year 2009 Round 1 Draft Pick from Coney's Combo (1.03 in 2008, might be lower in 2009)

for

Owens, Terrell DAL WR

Hilliard, Ike TBB WR

Year 2008 Round 2 Draft Pick from Rock Bottom (2.07)

That's basically TO for the possible top pick in 2009. Maybe you think I overpaid and you'll call me a "weak owner", but TO was a huge part of why I made it to the championship game and tied for the top record overall - and I'm thinking he'll be a good reason I might make it there again this year. WRs are worth a lot more in this league than usual, so that does make a difference.

In one of my leagues, I don't own TO. I have AP and Westbrook at RB. I could use WR help. If I owned the 1.2 or lower, I'd give it up for TO without thinking twice. It's a respectable league. Just because you haven't seen it or don't think his value is there does not make it so.

When I traded for TO, Evans and Roy were having bad years, Walker was injured, and I needed a WR.It does come down to things perfectly aligning, but his value should be higher than a low 1st. In all honesty, somewhere between the price I paid and the 1.05.

I don't know man. That looks like the kind of trade a "play for now" owner makes just before bailing on the league when it doesn't pan out. It turned out OK for you last year, but you probably mortgages some future as well.The goal of a FFB league is to win. But If the goal of a dynasty is to set your team up to win long term, then you did it a disservice.

The point of the discussion is not to suggest that people will never make such a trade. There are persuasive traders, different philosophies etc. I will quite emphatically suggest, however, that a good owner in a good league with that type of trading will get eaten alive over the long haul. You simply cannot trade premium picks for a player at the end of his career. Sure, maybe draft picks get over valued sometimes, but without one you will never get a crack at someone like ADP or DMAC this year. You don't get Fitz or CJ2 or Lynch or LT or anyone else with as high a probability of FFB stardom.

You are then the guy with M Harrison watching the guy with M Lynch put up 25-30 in the league championship.

That's better than being the guy who trades TO for Cedric Benson. The good news is you can always rebuild later.

Championships can be difficult to get. Getting younger is easy and most owners that are able to identify talent can trade for youth later. We know (pretty much) that TO will produce a season or two of elite stats. We have no idea what a rookie pick will do, all too often those prospects take up roster space and don't pan out.

 

[fruity pebbles]

TO will be 35 this season. I can't remember a WR putting up big stats at that age or older. By big stats i mean what TO owners have become accustomed to, 1300 + yards and double digit TDs. I know he's a specimen but age catches up to everyone. People thought Priest Holmes would break down later than usual as well since he played sparingly early on his his career. Most of the age break down numbers are pretty set and have been correct over and over again. At WRs it's typically 34-35. He may have another couple good years but i think the big years are about done.

 

[ravnzfan]

I traded SSmith + '08-2nd for TO and '08-1st

Smith was driving me crazy w/his injury history, so I figured 'upgrade' to Owens for the year or 2 it takes to develope Bowe(on my bench) and/or the 1st I got in the deal...(did not own an '08-1st--previously traded away)

14 team dynasty roster/lineup (we start 1/2/2/2flex):

Manning---(Delhomme)

Gore-McGahee-Freddie----(MSmith/MRobinson/KSmith)

Wayne-TO-Engram----(Bowe/Booker/Toomer/ABryant)

this team was favored, but lost twice in SB---maybe '3rd time's a charm!'

 

[supa mann]

Well, I agree with a few of the posters here and there is ZERO chance of me trading TO for the 1.9 rookie pick. That is just plain ludicrous. Heck, Harrison was just traded in our league for the 1.12 rookie pick. I don't want to hear how our league blows or must be playing with my sister's kids either. It's a 14 team dynasty league that was started here on the message boards and one of the most competitive leagues I have seen yet.

I will also ride off in the sunset with TO if necessary and get what I beleive is at least 2 more years of superstar stats from him before I will give him up for a bag of peanuts . Granted, my team should contend and I am playing for the now and understand TO has much more value to my team than the team holding the 1.1 or other really high draft picks. Those teams usually are more than one stud player away from challenging for a title.

I would also agree that in a redraft for TO to fall past say the 3rd round is fairly unlikely and worst case probably 4th round, so most people do still believe he will produce top numbers for at least one more year. Now if he goes out and and lays an egg this season or has a TO blow up, then I would imagine his value becomes more like Chris Henry's.