what is Tremlay smoking (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

In the Bengals case, my initial team projections were 539 pass attempts for 3845 yards and 22 TDs.

Here's your problem. In the past four years the Bengals passing attack has been:4066/283935/323520/233591/26Yardage looks reasonable, but you're predicting TD output to be the lowest in five years. I don't see any basis for that. Why would you assume such a huge decline?If you assume something closer to the four-year average of 27 TDs, based on your logic, you would have probably adjusted the QB numbers upward instead of the WR numbers downward. That puts Palmer in a more realistic position, imho.

I'll have to play around with this a bit. Palmer's career TD/Att rate is 0.053, which is pretty insanely high, but I don't think it's a fluke.The problem is that Chad Johnson is the only guy on the current team who has an above average TD/Rec rate for his position.Chris Henry has the third highest TD/Rec rate on the team, but he's gone for at least half the year. I can see Reggie Kelly possibly picking up some of the red zone slack. Who else?

 

[CalBear]

I also had Palmer initially projected for 0.053 TDs per attempt. That compares very favorably to the league average of 0.0395 TDs per attempt, and probably needs to be regressed down a bit.

Here's where you lose me. Palmer has averaged 0.053 TDs/attempt for his career. For the past two years, he's averaged 0.058 TDs/attempt. Why would you project him to fall significantly below his own career average? The #16 starting QB in 2006 was Chad Pennington; I'm much more willing to project Palmer based on Palmer's history than on Chad Pennington's.Manning's career average is 0.056 TDs/attempt; you have him projected at 0.056 TDs/attempt. Why not regress Manning as well? He also lost his #3WR, not to mention his Pro Bowl LT.

 

[zamboni]

Kudos to Maurile for giving his response with class. Much more than the title of the thread showed.

 

[Q-Bert]

Here is a link to Maurile's Bengal projections.

By the way, I never knew about that feature before. How did you get there?

What he said.|

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v

Maurile:

OK, here's how. In your projections by position, click the team link by the player's name. So, if you're looking at your own RB projections, if you want San Diego's team projections by you, click the "SD" next to Tomlinson's name (for example).

Edited for clarity.

 

[Jene Bramel]

In the Bengals case, my initial team projections were 539 pass attempts for 3845 yards and 22 TDs.

Here's your problem. In the past four years the Bengals passing attack has been:4066/283935/323520/233591/26Yardage looks reasonable, but you're predicting TD output to be the lowest in five years. I don't see any basis for that. Why would you assume such a huge decline?If you assume something closer to the four-year average of 27 TDs, based on your logic, you would have probably adjusted the QB numbers upward instead of the WR numbers downward. That puts Palmer in a more realistic position, imho.

I'll have to play around with this a bit. Palmer's career TD/Att rate is 0.053, which is pretty insanely high, but I don't think it's a fluke.The problem is that Chad Johnson is the only guy on the current team who has an above average TD/Rec rate for his position.Chris Henry has the third highest TD/Rec rate on the team, but he's gone for at least half the year. I can see Reggie Kelly possibly picking up some of the red zone slack. Who else?

Kelly might see a couple of additional red zone looks. If healthy, don't underestimate Tab Perry. There's no reason he can't provide many of the same things Chris Henry did in the red zone and he may be as effective down the field. I also wouldn't discount the possibility that Jeremi Johnson has a bigger role recieving out of the backfield inside the five on play action. Although he had no receiving TDs in 2006, he had three in 2005 and has five in his career.

 

[Chase Stuart]

any one have a history of where the qb finishes when he has 2 top 10 wrs considering he plays the whole year?has it ever happened to where that qb finished outside the top 10?i know in 2006 manning had 2 top 10 wrs and finished #1Palmer almost had 2 top 10 wrs (housh was 11TH) and finished 5th.that was evan after he he had a slow start due to that injury. can anyone go back further than that?

Elway ranked #13 in 1998 had McCaffrey#11/R Smith #12 (B Brister was a factor that year though)Brad Johnson ranked #13 in 1997 had Cris Carter#4/Jake Reed#16The worst a QB has finished with having 2 top 10 WRs though is around #7 (assuming they played the whole year)

The problem with this is your stacking the deck already be saying the QB has to play the full year. How many QBs do that? Less than 10 most years.The correct test would be to find a team with two top 10 fantasy WRs and then a TEAM QB that ranked outside the top ten. If Doug or MT or Yudkin doesn't get to that question first, I'll try and answer that when I have some more time. I've got little doubt that it's happened, though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

What's this? Someone with individualized projections?Get back in line! We like homogenized and pasteurized lists.

The issue isn't that the projections are different; the issue is that they don't pass the smell test. If Palmer has over 500 passes (as Tremblay projects) and 3800 yards, it's very ulnikely he'd throw only 23 TDs. Palmer threw 28 TDs last year coming back from a major ACL injury, and the only thing the offense lost was a #3 WR. For that matter, there's no way that Palmer will finish outside the top 10 if he throws for 3800 yards and 23 TDs. Last year that would have been QB#7, in 2005 it would have been QB#5.

Fine, step out of the lines, i just want to see the thought process and don't think his numbers add up. if you say something that is a little out of the ordinary based on past performances, then it would be helpful to know why and not say cause i felt like it which is where we stand today. again has it ever happened where your qb is not in the top 10 yet has 2 top ten WRs.

Can someone check the 2005 Cardinails. Well over 4000 yards passing, but 21 TD's and 21 INT's. Was that Top 10 worthy?

Warner #22/McCown #29 combined for 4549 yards 20tds 20int. They would have been #4.

It's inappropriate to compare Team QB ranks to individual QB ranks. I don't know if you did that or not, but it's unclear.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

For the record, I would buy a whole lot of whatever MT was smoking. He is one of the smartest and most interesting people here.

 

[AB in DC]

The problem is that Chad Johnson is the only guy on the current team who has an above average TD/Rec rate for his position.Chris Henry has the third highest TD/Rec rate on the team, but he's gone for at least half the year. I can see Reggie Kelly possibly picking up some of the red zone slack. Who else?

Who's to say the whole team won't improve their TD/Rec ratio? If you assume that the Cincy offense is going to be about as productive as before (which seems likely), then the TDs will come. Maybe Houshmanzadeh will get a few more red-zone looks without Chris Henry on the field. Maybe the TDs go to Reggie Kelly, or Tab Perry, or Kenny Irons. But the TDs have to go somewhere.* You seem to assume that this TD/Rec ratio is something that remains consistent from year to year, but I haven't seen anything to convince me of that.(*Unless you predict a decline in red-zone efficiency and an increase in FG attempts. But I don't see any reason to predict that.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I also had Palmer initially projected for 0.053 TDs per attempt. That compares very favorably to the league average of 0.0395 TDs per attempt, and probably needs to be regressed down a bit.

Here's where you lose me. Palmer has averaged 0.053 TDs/attempt for his career. For the past two years, he's averaged 0.058 TDs/attempt. Why would you project him to fall significantly below his own career average? The #16 starting QB in 2006 was Chad Pennington; I'm much more willing to project Palmer based on Palmer's history than on Chad Pennington's.Manning's career average is 0.056 TDs/attempt; you have him projected at 0.056 TDs/attempt. Why not regress Manning as well? He also lost his #3WR, not to mention his Pro Bowl LT.

With Manning, I had the Indy QBs projected to throw 30.7 TDs and the Indy WRs projected to receive 31.4 TDs, so there was no impetus to adjust Manning downward.With Palmer, I didn't specifically want to drop his TD/Att from 0.053 to 0.045, but I had to bring his TD passes in line with the receivers' TD receptions, and with Chris Henry's 9 TDs from last year gone that looked harder to do by bringing other receivers up than by bringing Palmer down.I do think 0.045 is a bit too low for Palmer, so I'll likely be moving it back up a bit, and probably moving Reggie Kelly's TDs up and maybe Tab Perry's, and maybe give a bump to CJ and Housh as well.

 

[AB in DC]

Just goes to show that there are lots of ways of doing projections. But, no offense to MT, that doesn't mean there are lots of valid ways of doing projections. It's easy to get so caught up in the number crunching that you lose sight of the big picture, and I think that's what happened here. You spent so much time worry about getting the numbers to line up that you missed the utter improbability of the result -- that the loss of a slot receiver for half a season would somehow drop a team's passing numbers to a five-year low.

 

[obxlegends]

Just goes to show that there are lots of ways of doing projections. But, no offense to MT, that doesn't mean there are lots of valid ways of doing projections. It's easy to get so caught up in the number crunching that you lose sight of the big picture, and I think that's what happened here. You spent so much time worry about getting the numbers to line up that you missed the utter improbability of the result -- that the loss of a slot receiver for half a season would somehow drop a team's passing numbers to a five-year low.

Props to MT for explaining himself in such a professional manner. I would of just proclaimed a Palmer injury and been done with it. Good job.

 

[KING]

i don't think you can reduce football down to a mass of mathematical algorithms. you can perhaps start the evaluation process with that. at some point though, common sense, and maybe even just a gut feeling, has to take over. when you have done your evaluations, and jeff garcia is ranked ahead of palmer, that should be a red flag that something is wrong.

 

[AB in DC]

Just goes to show that there are lots of ways of doing projections. But, no offense to MT, that doesn't mean there are lots of valid ways of doing projections. It's easy to get so caught up in the number crunching that you lose sight of the big picture, and I think that's what happened here. You spent so much time worry about getting the numbers to line up that you missed the utter improbability of the result -- that the loss of a slot receiver for half a season would somehow drop a team's passing numbers to a five-year low.

Props to MT for explaining himself in such a professional manner.

Are you talking to me or to MT?

 

[RC94]

Kudos to Maurile for giving his response with class. Much more than the title of the thread showed.

 

[David Dodds]

Maurile,

You don't expect Tab Perry or Antonio Chatman to pick up some of the slack at WR? Admittedly Chris Henry was used a lot near the goal line, but the question becomes how much is that due to Henry's skills (getting open) or due to Palmer's ability to get it to him? For the record, I do expect the team may lean on the running game a bit more in the redzone this season (and I also could see a drop in TD passes due to the loss of Henry). But it's hard to ignore the skills of Palmer who will also be one more year removed from his injury. Chris Henry should also return to the team at the end of the year and I doubt the Bengals sit him if Perry/Chatman aren't getting it done.

But all that said, these need to reflect your thoughts and I appreciate you working through your numbers explaining how you arrived at them.

 

[CalBear]

But all that said, these need to reflect your thoughts and I appreciate you working through your numbers explaining how you arrived at them.

Yes, I am glad to see the logic explained, even if I disagree with it. (Actually, I don't wholly disagree with the logic, I just think it doesn't pass the smell test). Thanks.

 

[tomarken]

Here is a link to Maurile's Bengal projections.

By the way, I never knew about that feature before. How did you get there?

I always just add"-53" into the address bar. Each of you guys have a different code, which can be seen in the address bar when looking at projections by position.

Holy crap that is awesome. Am I ######ed for never knowing this?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

You don't expect Tab Perry or Antonio Chatman to pick up some of the slack at WR? Admittedly Chris Henry was used a lot near the goal line, but the question becomes how much is that due to Henry's skills (getting open) or due to Palmer's ability to get it to him?

Yes, I'm not standing by my ranking of Palmer outside the top five, just explaining how it ended up that way. But I think it's too low and will be revising my CIN projections.

 

[Sylira21]

Kudos to Maurile for giving his response with class. Much more than the title of the thread showed.

Ditto. Monsieur Tremblay has always been a class act, as well as an interesting, iconoclastic thinker.

 

[Chase Stuart]

FYI, one team QB has ranked outside the top ten since the merger when two WRs on that team ranked in the top ten.

 

[obxlegends]

Just goes to show that there are lots of ways of doing projections. But, no offense to MT, that doesn't mean there are lots of valid ways of doing projections. It's easy to get so caught up in the number crunching that you lose sight of the big picture, and I think that's what happened here. You spent so much time worry about getting the numbers to line up that you missed the utter improbability of the result -- that the loss of a slot receiver for half a season would somehow drop a team's passing numbers to a five-year low.

Props to MT for explaining himself in such a professional manner.

Are you talking to me or to MT?

I said MT and I meant MT.

 

[Brewzers]

Here is a link to Maurile's Bengal projections.

By the way, I never knew about that feature before. How did you get there?

I always just add"-53" into the address bar. Each of you guys have a different code, which can be seen in the address bar when looking at projections by position.

Holy crap that is awesome. Am I ######ed for never knowing this?

I agree it is awesome. I couldn't find the different codes in the address bar as suggested above, so I just trial & errored until I discovered the various codes:"- 2" David Dodds

"- 12" Chris Smith

"- 41" Bob Henry

" -50" Jason Wood

" -53" Maurile Tremblay

There must be an easier way to toggle between the various staff projections. Please let me know if there is.

 

[Tau837]

For the record, I would buy a whole lot of whatever MT was smoking. He is one of the smartest and most interesting people here.

 

[Couch Potato]

Here is a link to Maurile's Bengal projections.

By the way, I never knew about that feature before. How did you get there?

I always just add"-53" into the address bar. Each of you guys have a different code, which can be seen in the address bar when looking at projections by position.

Holy crap that is awesome. Am I ######ed for never knowing this?

I agree it is awesome. I couldn't find the different codes in the address bar as suggested above, so I just trial & errored until I discovered the various codes:"- 2" David Dodds

"- 12" Chris Smith

"- 41" Bob Henry

" -50" Jason Wood

" -53" Maurile Tremblay

There must be an easier way to toggle between the various staff projections. Please let me know if there is.

After I posted what's being quoted above, I learned what the easier way was and posted this in post #46. It doesn't help you toggle between one staff and another, but it's easier than typing in the address bar.

Maurile:

OK, here's how. In your projections by position, click the team link by the player's name. So, if you're looking at your own RB projections, if you want San Diego's team projections by you, click the "SD" next to Tomlinson's name (for example).

 

[cowpie]

OK ,

I just pulled up the rankings onthe site and see that Maurile Tremblay has Palmer... That is Carson Palmer... (You know, the guy who had over 3800 passing yards in each of the last 2 years with over 28 td and has great wrs johnson and houshmenzadeh.) ranked #11 out of all qbs. Is there some spot on the site where he justifies this.

I mean he has garcia ranked ahead of him. What gives. Not only that, but he has both chad johnson and TJ Housh.... both ranked in the top 10 in WRS. How can this be??

while i don't agree with Palmer at 11th, i don't think having two top 10 WRs and yet the QB not in the top 10 is as impossible as you may think.edit: i remember having this argument several years ago about 2002/2003 Steelers and Tommy Maddox

In 2002, Kordell Stewart threw 166 passes. Maddox and Stewart combined for 4000 yards and 26 TDs; if that had been one QB, he would have wound up #6 overall.

Pittsburgh's 4036 yards, 26 TDs, and 22 INTs put them eighth that year in passing fantasy points . . . only two points ahead of the 11th place team. (Ward was WR3 and Burress was WR7.)

not to sound like a jerk, but that still isn't outside of the top 10. not only that, but it was a split qb scenario, AND, can we really compare maddox and stewart to palmer?

 

[cowpie]

In the Bengals case, my initial team projections were 539 pass attempts for 3845 yards and 22 TDs.

Here's your problem. In the past four years the Bengals passing attack has been:4066/283935/323520/233591/26Yardage looks reasonable, but you're predicting TD output to be the lowest in five years. I don't see any basis for that. Why would you assume such a huge decline?If you assume something closer to the four-year average of 27 TDs, based on your logic, you would have probably adjusted the QB numbers upward instead of the WR numbers downward. That puts Palmer in a more realistic position, imho.

I'll have to play around with this a bit. Palmer's career TD/Att rate is 0.053, which is pretty insanely high, but I don't think it's a fluke.The problem is that Chad Johnson is the only guy on the current team who has an above average TD/Rec rate for his position.Chris Henry has the third highest TD/Rec rate on the team, but he's gone for at least half the year. I can see Reggie Kelly possibly picking up some of the red zone slack. Who else?

so you think jeff garcia with his WRS are better?? what are the ratios there???

 

[cowpie]

any one have a history of where the qb finishes when he has 2 top 10 wrs considering he plays the whole year?has it ever happened to where that qb finished outside the top 10?i know in 2006 manning had 2 top 10 wrs and finished #1Palmer almost had 2 top 10 wrs (housh was 11TH) and finished 5th.that was evan after he he had a slow start due to that injury. can anyone go back further than that?

Elway ranked #13 in 1998 had McCaffrey#11/R Smith #12 (B Brister was a factor that year though)Brad Johnson ranked #13 in 1997 had Cris Carter#4/Jake Reed#16The worst a QB has finished with having 2 top 10 WRs though is around #7 (assuming they played the whole year)

The problem with this is your stacking the deck already be saying the QB has to play the full year. How many QBs do that? Less than 10 most years.The correct test would be to find a team with two top 10 fantasy WRs and then a TEAM QB that ranked outside the top ten. If Doug or MT or Yudkin doesn't get to that question first, I'll try and answer that when I have some more time. I've got little doubt that it's happened, though.

that would work as well, but the problem with that is that typically the calliber of the back up player is not as good, but i would like to see that info as well.

 

[cowpie]

Maurile,You don't expect Tab Perry or Antonio Chatman to pick up some of the slack at WR? Admittedly Chris Henry was used a lot near the goal line, but the question becomes how much is that due to Henry's skills (getting open) or due to Palmer's ability to get it to him? For the record, I do expect the team may lean on the running game a bit more in the redzone this season (and I also could see a drop in TD passes due to the loss of Henry). But it's hard to ignore the skills of Palmer who will also be one more year removed from his injury. Chris Henry should also return to the team at the end of the year and I doubt the Bengals sit him if Perry/Chatman aren't getting it done.But all that said, these need to reflect your thoughts and I appreciate you working through your numbers explaining how you arrived at them.

 

[cowpie]

You don't expect Tab Perry or Antonio Chatman to pick up some of the slack at WR? Admittedly Chris Henry was used a lot near the goal line, but the question becomes how much is that due to Henry's skills (getting open) or due to Palmer's ability to get it to him?

Yes, I'm not standing by my ranking of Palmer outside the top five, just explaining how it ended up that way. But I think it's too low and will be revising my CIN projections.

if you don't feel he will be a top five that is fine. I am not expecting him to have to be ranked there. rank him 6th or 7th even. i could see that happening if some other step up and cinci loses a few tds. I just don't want to see him ranked 11th with garcia, rothesburger, rivers all in front of him which is what i originally saw on the rankings and sparked my interest to see what was going on upstairs with that logic.

 

[cowpie]

FYI, one team QB has ranked outside the top ten since the merger when two WRs on that team ranked in the top ten.

are you gonna tell us who?? and when??

 

[Chase Stuart]

FYI, one team QB has ranked outside the top ten since the merger when two WRs on that team ranked in the top ten.

are you gonna tell us who?? and when??

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/07/25/fa...rresponding-qb/

 

[CalBear]

FYI, one team QB has ranked outside the top ten since the merger when two WRs on that team ranked in the top ten.

are you gonna tell us who?? and when??

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/07/25/fa...rresponding-qb/

I think this is a case of the exception proving the rule. Clearly there is no real analogy between Carson Palmer, and the powerful combination of Mark Malone and David Woodley.

 

[cowpie]

FYI, one team QB has ranked outside the top ten since the merger when two WRs on that team ranked in the top ten.

are you gonna tell us who?? and when??

http://blog.footballguys.com/2007/07/25/fa...rresponding-qb/

I think this is a case of the exception proving the rule. Clearly there is no real analogy between Carson Palmer, and the powerful combination of Mark Malone and David Woodley.

wow, what great response time. this is great. Good job FBGs. That is why i love this site

 

[tomarken]

Here is a link to Maurile's Bengal projections.

By the way, I never knew about that feature before. How did you get there?

I always just add"-53" into the address bar. Each of you guys have a different code, which can be seen in the address bar when looking at projections by position.

Holy crap that is awesome. Am I ######ed for never knowing this?

I agree it is awesome. I couldn't find the different codes in the address bar as suggested above, so I just trial & errored until I discovered the various codes:"- 2" David Dodds

"- 12" Chris Smith

"- 41" Bob Henry

" -50" Jason Wood

" -53" Maurile Tremblay

There must be an easier way to toggle between the various staff projections. Please let me know if there is.

After I posted what's being quoted above, I learned what the easier way was and posted this in post #46. It doesn't help you toggle between one staff and another, but it's easier than typing in the address bar.

Maurile:

OK, here's how. In your projections by position, click the team link by the player's name. So, if you're looking at your own RB projections, if you want San Diego's team projections by you, click the "SD" next to Tomlinson's name (for example).

Yes, but is there an easier way to get to Maurile's (or anyone else's) projections in the first place, other than typing the number in the URL? I do my own projections and don't use the site much for those, but all I've ever seen before now are Dodds projections...

 

[tomarken]

Yes, but is there an easier way to get to Maurile's (or anyone else's) projections in the first place, other than typing the number in the URL? I do my own projections and don't use the site much for those, but all I've ever seen before now are Dodds projections...

Wow, were the links just added? If so, If they've been there for a while,

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

They were just added.

 

[Couch Potato]

Here is a link to Maurile's Bengal projections.

By the way, I never knew about that feature before. How did you get there?

I always just add"-53" into the address bar. Each of you guys have a different code, which can be seen in the address bar when looking at projections by position.

Holy crap that is awesome. Am I ######ed for never knowing this?

I agree it is awesome. I couldn't find the different codes in the address bar as suggested above, so I just trial & errored until I discovered the various codes:"- 2" David Dodds

"- 12" Chris Smith

"- 41" Bob Henry

" -50" Jason Wood

" -53" Maurile Tremblay

There must be an easier way to toggle between the various staff projections. Please let me know if there is.

After I posted what's being quoted above, I learned what the easier way was and posted this in post #46. It doesn't help you toggle between one staff and another, but it's easier than typing in the address bar.

Maurile:

OK, here's how. In your projections by position, click the team link by the player's name. So, if you're looking at your own RB projections, if you want San Diego's team projections by you, click the "SD" next to Tomlinson's name (for example).

Yes, but is there an easier way to get to Maurile's (or anyone else's) projections in the first place, other than typing the number in the URL? I do my own projections and don't use the site much for those, but all I've ever seen before now are Dodds projections...

From Dodds' projections, click on a player's name. That will give you a sthe projections for the player done by each of the 5 staff. Clicking on the staffmember's name will get you to his projections for that position. So, if you are at Dodds' projections for WRs, you can click on one of the WRs names, then on the new page click on the name of the staff whose WR projections you want to see.Nevermind... I just looked, and they've now added links to each staff member's projections on each projection page.