What numbers will Calvin Johnson put up this year in DET? (1 Viewer)

[ILoveMyLions]

I think CJ will put up very good numbers his first year in Detroit ala Boldin or M. Clayton his first year. Martz has already come out and said that CJ will likely start outside with Furrey and McDonald moving inside to the slot. He will have a starting job day one and being that he's in a pass happy offense on turf, the sky is the limit for this guy. The only detractor is that Roy Williams will get his share, but this will also force teams to pick their poison.

My prediction is that CJ gets 65 catches, 1000 yards and 7 TDs.

Thoughts?

 

[hutchins929]

My prediction is that CJ gets 65 catches, 1000 yards and 7 TDs.

Thoughts?

Mike Martz is salivating over having him, I don't blame him. He is a stud in waiting, top 3 potential! maybe not this year but if he can stay healthy he has a chance. Were talking TO without the bad stuff on the side. Unless money changes him.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

My prediction is that CJ gets 65 catches, 1000 yards and 7 TDs.

Thoughts?

Mike Martz is salivating over having him, I don't blame him. He is a stud in waiting, top 3 potential! maybe not this year but if he can stay healthy he has a chance. Were talking TO without the bad stuff on the side. Unless money changes him.

So what numbers do you think he'll put up this year?

 

[hutchins929]

My prediction is that CJ gets 65 catches, 1000 yards and 7 TDs.

Thoughts?

Mike Martz is salivating over having him, I don't blame him. He is a stud in waiting, top 3 potential! maybe not this year but if he can stay healthy he has a chance. Were talking TO without the bad stuff on the side. Unless money changes him.

So what numbers do you think he'll put up this year?

very possible we will see 65-75 catches for 950-1250yds and 7-10tds

 

[NorrisB]

Im thinking 800 yards and 8 tds

 

[jurb26]

Always hard to say with rookie WRs. I'll go with about 800 yards and 7 TDs.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think his rookie season will mirror Larry Fitzgerald's rookie season. There are a ton of analogies between the Cards' O during Fitz' rookie year and the Lions' O this upcoming year.

ETA: Fitz went 100-ish targets for 58 catches, 780 yards and 8 TDs, but Boldin was injured for a good percentage of that year. If ROY gets his 80-1200-8, what's left for Calvin?

 

[Gopher State]

Rookie WR, with two other very good wr's on the team I say:

55-825-6

 

[LBH]

80 1100 9

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

If ROY gets his 80-1200-8, what's left for Calvin?

The 98 balls, and 6 td that Furey got last year.I have him with 71 - 994 - 7

 

[lions327]

75, 1050 8 TD's.

I don't think I have ever predicted a rookie WR to get over 1000 yards, but I think a combination of his immense talent, learning from a great teacher like Martz, and a great offense will speed up his learning curve.

 

[cscmtp]

83 balls, 1257 yards, 14 TDs.

 

[Routilla]

You know I typically do not put much faith in rookie WRs because they are usually going to a team that is WR challenged or to a team that already has a proven WR. But I actually like CJ's situation a lot in DET. With Roy as the established WR1 and a capable QB in Kitna as well as a generous DET DEF, I think CJ could approach 70, 1100, 10. This is assuming of course that he starts the season as the WR2.

 

[FavreCo]

83 balls, 1257 yards, 14 TDs.

We have a winner.

 

[NorrisB]

83 balls, 1257 yards, 14 TDs.

We have a winner.

 

[Tau837]

Surprised no one has drawn a parallel to Holt under Martz as a rookie in 1999:

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name | G | RSH YARD AVG TD | REC YARD AVG TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Isaac Bruce | 16 | 5 32 6.4 0 | 77 1165 15.1 12 || Az-zahir Hakim | 15 | 4 44 11.0 0 | 36 677 18.8 8 || Torry Holt | 16 | 3 25 8.3 0 | 52 788 15.2 6 || Chad Lewis | 1 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 1 12 12.0 0 || Ricky Proehl | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 33 349 10.6 0 || Chris Thomas | 8 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 1 6 6.0 0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+Roy Williams = BruceFurrey = Hakim

CJ = Holt

McDonald = Proehl

Two caveats:

1. St. Louis only attempted 530 passes that year, which was 20th in the NFL. Detroit attempted 597 last year, which was 2nd in the NFL. So there might be more catches available for the Detroit WRs.

2. Faulk had 87/1048/5 receiving for St. Louis in 1999. Jones, Harris, and Bryson combined for 87/750/3 last year, so not sure if this is much of a factor or not.

Anyway, I think Holt numbers are reasonable to project. He definitely has upside that is higher than that, but I'm not convinced much greater than that is likely.

 

[cscmtp]

83 balls, 1257 yards, 14 TDs.

We have a winner.

 

[Marc Levin]

If ROY gets his 80-1200-8, what's left for Calvin?

The 98 balls, and 6 td that Furey got last year.I have him with 71 - 994 - 7

Then what does Furrey get? Does he regress?

 

[Marc Levin]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread -

Holt rookie year: 52-788-6

Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8

What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

 

[Tau837]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread - Holt rookie year: 52-788-6Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

While I agree with your main point, are you saying St. Louis had a questionable RB situation? I disagree with that notion.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

If ROY gets his 80-1200-8, what's left for Calvin?

The 98 balls, and 6 td that Furey got last year.I have him with 71 - 994 - 7

Then what does Furrey get? Does he regress?

He will regress big time...he's being moved to the slot...look at Hakim's numbers...

 

[NorrisB]

Surprised no one has drawn a parallel to Holt under Martz as a rookie in 1999:

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Isaac Bruce		  | 16 |	5	32   6.4   0  |   77  1165  15.1  12 || Az-zahir Hakim	   | 15 |	4	44  11.0   0  |   36   677  18.8   8 || Torry Holt		   | 16 |	3	25   8.3   0  |   52   788  15.2   6 || Chad Lewis		   |  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	1	12  12.0   0 || Ricky Proehl		 | 15 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   33   349  10.6   0 || Chris Thomas		 |  8 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	1	 6   6.0   0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

Roy Williams = BruceFurrey = HakimCJ = HoltMcDonald = ProehlTwo caveats:1. St. Louis only attempted 530 passes that year, which was 20th in the NFL. Detroit attempted 597 last year, which was 2nd in the NFL. So there might be more catches available for the Detroit WRs.2. Faulk had 87/1048/5 receiving for St. Louis in 1999. Jones, Harris, and Bryson combined for 87/750/3 last year, so not sure if this is much of a factor or not.Anyway, I think Holt numbers are reasonable to project. He definitely has upside that is higher than that, but I'm not convinced much greater than that is likely.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread - Holt rookie year: 52-788-6Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

Three things...1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies2. CJ's speed on that turf will allow him to go deep a little more and break it open.3. Martz wants to prove this was the right pick.

 

[jurb26]

1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies

Maybe we should let him play a few NFL downs before claiming this.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies

Maybe we should let him play a few NFL downs before claiming this.

Come on jurb, you're smart enough to know that I'm comparing them when they entered into the league, not looking at their play during their rookie year. Are you really going to try and argue that either Holt or Fitz were better prospects when they got drafted?

 

[Tau837]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread - Holt rookie year: 52-788-6Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

Three things...1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies2. CJ's speed on that turf will allow him to go deep a little more and break it open.3. Martz wants to prove this was the right pick.

1. Based on what? Since he hasn't played in the NFL yet, are you basing this on college? If so, I'm not sure you are aware of how good Holt was in college.2. How much faster is CJ than Holt, exactly? Holt is very fast, and also played on turf in St. Louis.3. Did Martz not want to prove Holt was the right first round pick in 1999?I don't think any of your reasons hold up.

 

[Rev]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread - Holt rookie year: 52-788-6Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

Three things...1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies2. CJ's speed on that turf will allow him to go deep a little more and break it open.3. Martz wants to prove this was the right pick.

I love the CJ2 (Chad Johnson is CJ1) enthusiasm, but I am not projecting an all world season.1. Saying that CJ is better than Fitz and Holt as rookies is not something I would dare to do until after the season. There is nothing about CJ's college film (that I've seen) that puts him in such an elite category that he can already be ahead of Holt and Fitz as rookies. Though his hands and leaping ability are incredible, CJ's routes and moves after the catch are not yet at that kind of elite level, IMO. 2. Roy and Charles Rogers both had elite speed and elite rookie status, but neither had the kind of rookie season that guys are projecting here. Teams will have to play CJ differently in light of his physical attributes, but they aren't going to translate to a top 10 season on their own.3. This is probably true, but Martz' main concern is winning, not the name of the jersey. Also, I wouldn't count Mike Furrey out just yet. He could play the Stokely role and have his share of big games.CJ2 for 2007: 57/850/6

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread - Holt rookie year: 52-788-6Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

Three things...1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies2. CJ's speed on that turf will allow him to go deep a little more and break it open.3. Martz wants to prove this was the right pick.

1. Based on what? Since he hasn't played in the NFL yet, are you basing this on college? If so, I'm not sure you are aware of how good Holt was in college.2. How much faster is CJ than Holt, exactly? Holt is very fast, and also played on turf in St. Louis.3. Did Martz not want to prove Holt was the right first round pick in 1999?I don't think any of your reasons hold up.

1. See above post2. Perhaps Holt ran faster than a 4.35, but I wasn't aware of that. Not to mention height in the red zone.3. The Rams hadn't selected 4 WRs in 5 years like the Lions had. Martz convinced Millen that this guy was worth it. I think that leaves something to prove.

 

[Tau837]

1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies

Maybe we should let him play a few NFL downs before claiming this.

Come on jurb, you're smart enough to know that I'm comparing them when they entered into the league, not looking at their play during their rookie year. Are you really going to try and argue that either Holt or Fitz were better prospects when they got drafted?

I think CJ is considered a better prospect now than Holt was in 1999. At the time, I felt Holt was underrated, and it proved out. CJ will be fortunate to have the type of success Holt has had.I think many felt Fitz was as good a WR prospect as there ever had been... and he still required a year to adjust.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

1. Saying that CJ is better than Fitz and Holt as rookies is not something I would dare to do until after the season. There is nothing about CJ's college film (that I've seen) that puts him in such an elite category that he can already be ahead of Holt and Fitz as rookies. CJ's routes and moves after the catch are not yet at that kind of elite level, IMO.

This is the 3rd reference to this. CJ is the highest rated WR coming out of college in recent memory, including Holt and Fitz and Keyshawn, etc.... How can this be disputed? His measurables are off the board, and his work ethic and character are considered elite. Route running has not be a criticism of him at all. My point is that he is the best prospect at WR coming out since I can remember. I'm not comparing those guys after their rookie year to CJ now; but I'm comparing those guys prior to their rookie year and am stating that IMO CJ is superior.

 

[Tau837]

Let's look at a couple of prominent high drafted WR rookie numbers who went to a decent passing team, a pass oriented coach, a questionable RB situation, and an established WR1 - both were mentioned in this thread - Holt rookie year: 52-788-6Fitzgerald rookie year: 58-780-8What is it about CJ's situation that is creating all these 70+ 1G+ predictions? Is he really that much better than these other two guys? Is Roy Williams that much worse than Boldin and Bruce were?

Three things...1. CJ is better than both Holt and Fitz as rookies2. CJ's speed on that turf will allow him to go deep a little more and break it open.3. Martz wants to prove this was the right pick.

1. Based on what? Since he hasn't played in the NFL yet, are you basing this on college? If so, I'm not sure you are aware of how good Holt was in college.2. How much faster is CJ than Holt, exactly? Holt is very fast, and also played on turf in St. Louis.3. Did Martz not want to prove Holt was the right first round pick in 1999?I don't think any of your reasons hold up.

1. See above post2. Perhaps Holt ran faster than a 4.35, but I wasn't aware of that. Not to mention height in the red zone.3. The Rams hadn't selected 4 WRs in 5 years like the Lions had. Martz convinced Millen that this guy was worth it. I think that leaves something to prove.

Well I thought I remembered that he was faster but a quick search says Holt ran 4.43 at the combine.

 

[cscmtp]

I think like Fitz, he'll be a great red zone threat. And with a questionable running game at this point, I could see the Lions having to throw more in the red zone than run the ball.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

You know I typically do not put much faith in rookie WRs because they are usually going to a team that is WR challenged or to a team that already has a proven WR. But I actually like CJ's situation a lot in DET. With Roy as the established WR1 and a capable QB in Kitna as well as a generous DET DEF, I think CJ could approach 70, 1100, 10. This is assuming of course that he starts the season as the WR2.

 

[BostonSportsGuy]

You guys are all nuts. All of a sudden Detroit, the 2nd worst team in football, is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut? I guess Roy & Furrey are going to just take a back seat to a rookie WR in year 1? Really? This makes sense?

Realistically, I think CJ will manage around 50 catches, 850 yards, and 5 TDs. You don't learn the playbook and instantly become a stellar route runner overnight. Everyone talks about his long-term potential, which I agree is stellar, but putting up Fitz/Holt #s in his first year on a terrible team is ludicrous.

 

[David Yudkin]

You guys are all nuts. All of a sudden Detroit, the 2nd worst team in football, is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut? I guess Roy & Furrey are going to just take a back seat to a rookie WR in year 1? Really? This makes sense? Realistically, I think CJ will manage around 50 catches, 850 yards, and 5 TDs. You don't learn the playbook and instantly become a stellar route runner overnight. Everyone talks about his long-term potential, which I agree is stellar, but putting up Fitz/Holt #s in his first year on a terrible team is ludicrous.

I took the Holt/Fitz comparisons to mean how they performaed as rookies (52-788-6 and 58-780-8).And while the Lions as a whole were not very good, they ranked in the Top 5 passing wise.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

You guys are all nuts. All of a sudden Detroit, the 2nd worst team in football, is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut? I guess Roy & Furrey are going to just take a back seat to a rookie WR in year 1? Really? This makes sense?

Realistically, I think CJ will manage around 50 catches, 850 yards, and 5 TDs. You don't learn the playbook and instantly become a stellar route runner overnight. Everyone talks about his long-term potential, which I agree is stellar, but putting up Fitz/Holt #s in his first year on a terrible team is ludicrous.

Furrey is taking a back-seat. The guy is a backup saftey who played hard, but make no mistake CJ steps in and starts Day 1.

 

[Assani Fisher]

95 catches, 1575 yards, 21 TDs

 

[Unlucky]

95 catches, 1575 yards, 21 TDs

I'm working on my projections right now, and I'm in the 110/1750/25 range for Calvin right now. I might tweak that down a little bit.

 

[massraider]

95 catches, 1575 yards, 21 TDs

Those are my projections as well. For September.Trying to work out October now.

 

[Marc Levin]

GB Assani, Unlucky, and massraider.

I can't buy any of the arguments made here for why Calvin Johnson will drastically outperform Fitz and Holt in their rookie years. Maybe slightly better than 55-750, but these guesses of 75-1G seem baseless (@ least right now they do).

Maybe if we hear glowing positive reports out of camp we can start projecting him as a top-24 fantasy receiver. Until then, a year similar to Fitz' rookie year seems the most likely result for Calvin Johnson

 

[Dirty Weasel]

In 2006, Roy had 82 catches/1310 yards/7 TD's, while Furrey had 98 catches/1086 yards/6 TD's. My guess is that CJ2 kicks Furrey to the curb and it pans out in 2007 like this:

Roy - 90 catches/1300 yards/8 TD's

CJ2 - 75 catches/1050 yards/6 TD's

Furrey - 40 catches/450 yards/2 TD's

 

[Tau837]

I'm glad to see that someone in all of my leagues will be taking CJ as a top 20 WR. That means other value will fall.

 

[Spartans Rule]

95 catches, 1575 yards, 21 TDs

I'm working on my projections right now, and I'm in the 110/1750/25 range for Calvin right now. I might tweak that down a little bit.

Don't be such a pessimist.

 

[turkishkamel]

GB Assani, Unlucky, and massraider.I can't buy any of the arguments made here for why Calvin Johnson will drastically outperform Fitz and Holt in their rookie years. Maybe slightly better than 55-750, but these guesses of 75-1G seem baseless (@ least right now they do).Maybe if we hear glowing positive reports out of camp we can start projecting him as a top-24 fantasy receiver. Until then, a year similar to Fitz' rookie year seems the most likely result for Calvin Johnson

fitz' rookie year consisted of john navarre, josh mccown and shaun king played some pretty terrible football. kitnas no superstar but he's joe montana compared to those guys. mike martz is calling plays in detroit, he was not calling plays in arizona. plus fitz' doesnt have the elite speed to stretch the field like johnson does. holt may be a fair comparison on the surface but so are randy moss, anquan boldin and marques colston. rookie receivers can have big years. johnson is suppossed to be a cant miss super prospect, why cant he?60 rec1002 yds9 tdssky is the limit for this guy. roy being on the other side is gonna make things a lot easier for him too.

 

[Donnybrook]

Surprised no one has drawn a parallel to Holt under Martz as a rookie in 1999:

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Isaac Bruce		  | 16 |	5	32   6.4   0  |   77  1165  15.1  12 || Az-zahir Hakim	   | 15 |	4	44  11.0   0  |   36   677  18.8   8 || Torry Holt		   | 16 |	3	25   8.3   0  |   52   788  15.2   6 || Chad Lewis		   |  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	1	12  12.0   0 || Ricky Proehl		 | 15 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   33   349  10.6   0 || Chris Thomas		 |  8 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	1	 6   6.0   0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

Roy Williams = BruceFurrey = HakimCJ = HoltMcDonald = ProehlTwo caveats:1. St. Louis only attempted 530 passes that year, which was 20th in the NFL. Detroit attempted 597 last year, which was 2nd in the NFL. So there might be more catches available for the Detroit WRs.2. Faulk had 87/1048/5 receiving for St. Louis in 1999. Jones, Harris, and Bryson combined for 87/750/3 last year, so not sure if this is much of a factor or not.Anyway, I think Holt numbers are reasonable to project. He definitely has upside that is higher than that, but I'm not convinced much greater than that is likely.

Another caveat: Jon Kitna != Kurt Warner

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

45, 580, 2 TD

 

[Tau837]

GB Assani, Unlucky, and massraider.I can't buy any of the arguments made here for why Calvin Johnson will drastically outperform Fitz and Holt in their rookie years. Maybe slightly better than 55-750, but these guesses of 75-1G seem baseless (@ least right now they do).Maybe if we hear glowing positive reports out of camp we can start projecting him as a top-24 fantasy receiver. Until then, a year similar to Fitz' rookie year seems the most likely result for Calvin Johnson

fitz' rookie year consisted of john navarre, josh mccown and shaun king played some pretty terrible football. kitnas no superstar but he's joe montana compared to those guys. mike martz is calling plays in detroit, he was not calling plays in arizona. plus fitz' doesnt have the elite speed to stretch the field like johnson does. holt may be a fair comparison on the surface but so are randy moss, anquan boldin and marques colston. rookie receivers can have big years. johnson is suppossed to be a cant miss super prospect, why cant he?60 rec1002 yds9 tdssky is the limit for this guy. roy being on the other side is gonna make things a lot easier for him too.

Glad we agree about Holt.How would you figure that Colston, who was WR1 with Horn struggling to stay healthy, is comparable? That is, who was the Roy Williams Colston had to deal with?How would you figure Boldin was the same? Who was the Roy Williams for Boldin?I don't disagree that Moss may be a solid comparison as well. So I see Moss, Fitz, and Holt as being reasonably comparable. I suspect there are others who are comparable who don't look as favorable. For example, what about Koren Robinson?