O
Oscar Goldman
Guest
I'm saying it's 75% luck, and 25% skill.
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
If we are examining one season, I think luck can play a big factor. A novice FF owner can get lucky and draft a good team and win a championship. But ultimately, I think if you examine a league over a 10 year span, the informed owners have a better record than the owners that rely on luck.
Islander
Footballguy
It all depends on league set up. If you don't like luck, go play in dynasty auction IDP leagues, total points (not matchups) and come back to report on what's the percentage of luck in that league. Very low IMHO.
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Tenacious D
Footballguy
Until you show me a ff player who can predict injuries, gm and call the plays for the teams his players are on, moderate their off-field lives to control what impacts them on game day, and referee each game all the player they and their opponent are playing in each week., very little is in your control, hence it's almost all luck.
The only skill, or illusion of it, comes in with being well-informed to make good draft decisions, timely free agent moves, good trades, and the best lineup decisions on gameday. If it's an auction league, a bit more skill applies on draft day and a dynasty league needs more for roster management, but that skill comes back to mostly being well-informed and good in the trade dept.
The only skill, or illusion of it, comes in with being well-informed to make good draft decisions, timely free agent moves, good trades, and the best lineup decisions on gameday. If it's an auction league, a bit more skill applies on draft day and a dynasty league needs more for roster management, but that skill comes back to mostly being well-informed and good in the trade dept.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
It's skill to be the regular season champion.
It's luck to win the one week "Super Bowl" championship.
It's luck to win the one week "Super Bowl" championship.
O
Oscar Goldman
Guest
I agree 100%.
I agree with most of the above.It's takes "skill" to field competitive teams more often then not. But really, all the "skill" you need can be acquired by using any number of cheat sheet services. Services like FBG's has made fantasy football easy.Before the internet, it really did take some skill. On any given year, you need luck to win.
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Most of it is skill. You use your skill to find the potential sleeper that comes to fruition witha bit of luck. It takes even more skill when your stud goes because of bad luck.
Bad luck comes up more times than good luck.
For me I am running a 3 year streak of bad luck with my #2 draft pick in both Fantasy Football and Baseball. I keep loosing them very early in the season due to injury.
This is looking like year 4 with Holt's bruised sternum.
Bad luck comes up more times than good luck.
For me I am running a 3 year streak of bad luck with my #2 draft pick in both Fantasy Football and Baseball. I keep loosing them very early in the season due to injury.
This is looking like year 4 with Holt's bruised sternum.
C
CrossEyed
Guest
50/50. And I agree with Andy. It takes more skill to win the season and more luck to win the championship game.
bostonfred
Footballguy
This debate again? At this point in the season, the results are supposed to be more like 90/10 in favor of skill.
By the way, fantasy football, like poker, is a game of skill where you try to mitigate the effects of variance. Over the long haul, all things considered, nobody will be luckier than the next guy. But with fantasy football, the sample size is so small, and the variance so great, that it appears to be a greater percentage of luck than other games.
By the way, fantasy football, like poker, is a game of skill where you try to mitigate the effects of variance. Over the long haul, all things considered, nobody will be luckier than the next guy. But with fantasy football, the sample size is so small, and the variance so great, that it appears to be a greater percentage of luck than other games.
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
Since luck doesn't come into play when you scour the waiver wire, play matchups with your weekly starters, work trades, etc... during the season to get into the playoffs.But once the playoffs hit, it's more luck than skill in any given game.Mike Crimes
Footballguy
I agree 100%.It would be so ironice that year after year I am one of the top 2 teams in regular season.
O
Oscar Goldman
Guest
There's no luck in matchups with your starters? Are you crazy? That's one part of the game, where luck plays a big factor.
Sheriff66
Footballguy
The Jerk
Footballguy
1) The amount of perceived luck in fantasy football is inversely proportional to the success of the FF owner.
2) Luck is certainly a part of fantasy football, but the impact of luck decreases as the time frame increases. In any one game, luck is often the deciding factor. Over the course of any one season, luck may partially even out, but luck still usually plays a major role in determining the best team (for this thread, consider that to mean highest total season points). Over a sufficient number of seasons, luck evens out more or less completely and the more skillful players are revealed by their more frequent successes.
In all but the most perfectly balanced leagues, skill eventually outperforms luck. Remember the old adage that people who work the hardest tend to have the most luck. Some fantasy owners miss out on "lucky" opportunites during a draft because their lack of preparation results in a failure to capitalize on a player that falls to them. Then a few weeks later they wonder why the owner drafting right behind them got so lucky...
2) Luck is certainly a part of fantasy football, but the impact of luck decreases as the time frame increases. In any one game, luck is often the deciding factor. Over the course of any one season, luck may partially even out, but luck still usually plays a major role in determining the best team (for this thread, consider that to mean highest total season points). Over a sufficient number of seasons, luck evens out more or less completely and the more skillful players are revealed by their more frequent successes.
In all but the most perfectly balanced leagues, skill eventually outperforms luck. Remember the old adage that people who work the hardest tend to have the most luck. Some fantasy owners miss out on "lucky" opportunites during a draft because their lack of preparation results in a failure to capitalize on a player that falls to them. Then a few weeks later they wonder why the owner drafting right behind them got so lucky...
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The effect is minimized when it's squad vs. squad.There's no luck in matchups with your starters? Are you crazy? That's one part of the game, where luck plays a big factor.
Dave Stauff
Footballguy
100% . . . because we're all lucky enough to be alive and in sufficient health to play this game 
Can I have an amen?
Can I have an amen?
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
did I just win the league? then it's ~95% skill.
did I just not win the league? it's about 90% luck.
did I just not win the league? it's about 90% luck.
pinequick
Footballguy
When I win, it's all skill. When I lose, it's all luck.
Given that I don't lose that much, I'd say it's mostly skill.
Seriously--I think luck factor is going WAY up recently, with the proliferation of good-quality information over the web and even the airwaves now. Like someone posted before in another thread, last week I could tell you *why* Wali Lundy made a great sleeper pick, but some novice in my league (who has no idea who "Wally" is!) with a half-competent cheatsheet would have drafted him at about the same place as I would have. That sort of evens out the "skill" part of the game, at least in my experience.
Given that I don't lose that much, I'd say it's mostly skill.
Seriously--I think luck factor is going WAY up recently, with the proliferation of good-quality information over the web and even the airwaves now. Like someone posted before in another thread, last week I could tell you *why* Wali Lundy made a great sleeper pick, but some novice in my league (who has no idea who "Wally" is!) with a half-competent cheatsheet would have drafted him at about the same place as I would have. That sort of evens out the "skill" part of the game, at least in my experience.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
What percentage of hitting a baseball is luck? David Ortiz gets out 70% of the time he has an AB. Does that mean he's unlucky 70% of the time?
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
It's alot of luck.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I play in a league that plays QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-WR/TE-WR/RB-WR/RB-K-IDP-IDP-IDP and the league is a straight 16 weeks of head to head match ups with the winner having the best record. Scoring is very high with 30yd pass, 15yd rush & 10yd rec each 1 point, PPR, and PPCompletion. All TD's 6 and IDP's getting 1 pt for solo tackle & pass defensed. Basically a ton of points flying around and each position can score points in every category (like an offensive player tackling someone after a turnover)I think this minimalizes the luck factor for the champion as you have to put together a team of guys that score from all positions to win on a consistant basis and one bad week late in the season won't cost you the league. We only keep 5 bench players so there is a lot of action on the WW as well. Out of all of the leagues I play in it is my favorite format and seems to take more skill into account than luck (I'd say 90% skill & 10% luck). Whereas most standard scoring leagues with standard lineups are more of a 50/50 deal.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Not if you draft a squad which figures to have sweet matchups in the fantasy playoff weeks. Don't get me wrong -- I won't pass up a MUCH better player simply because he has a more difficult road in the FF playoffs, but I will always take the player with the easiest schedule in weeks 14/15/16 if the players in question are fairly equal.I have enough confidence in my local league that I'm going to reach the playoffs with a solid, smart, value-filled draft. What's the point in just "getting there" if all of your guys will then be facing Tampa Bay, Carolina, Chicago and Pittsburgh during the playoffs? Plan ahead. You have a pretty good idea which defenses will be superior coming into the season. Make sure your starting lineup doesn't have to face them when it matters most.
You can also draft players with easy early schedules, then trade them when their value is at the highest if they have a number of difficult teams to face in the stretch run.
Last year was the inagural season for my local league, which comprised of Five Veterans and Seven Noobies. The top-6 consisted of the Five Veterans, however the one noob who finished in the top half of the league, won it. Mainly because he lucked into Larry Johnson, while he had Shaun Alexander, Tom Brady and Antonio Gates. My point is, when it came down to it, the Veterans performed better, but luck can happen.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Can you please describe how the noob "lucked into" Larry Johnson?Sounds like sour grapes to me.
railman305
Footballguy
i think fantasy football is almost equal to the amount of luck with poker, you can make great picks but injuries, bad situations in games, and other factors can cause a talented to pick to not produce, kind of like in cards when you have an excellent start hand but lose on the river even though you where better at the start
He took him as his starting #2 RB, ahead of guys who were starting. That's what I call "luck"Can you please describe how the noob "lucked into" Larry Johnson?Sounds like sour grapes to me.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
He took him as his starting #2 RB, ahead of guys who were starting. That's what I call "luck"Can you please describe how the noob "lucked into" Larry Johnson?Sounds like sour grapes to me.
I call that "damned good foresight."I think it depends on the hitter and the pitcher. David Ortiz vs a horrible pitcher isn't fair, and the pitcher will probably be lucky to get him out. David Ortiz vs a good pitcher on his level might be luck. David Ortiz vs a hall of famer in his prime is a situation where Ortiz might be lucky to get a hit.
I won a title in 2001 because I scooped up Dominic Rhodes off of waivers the moment it was announced James had a minor knee injury. A couple days later it came out that it was an ACL or whatever and he was gone for the season. Rhodes wetn berzerk the rest of the year. Of course, none of that helped me after 2001.
Was that luck or skill?
Was that luck or skill?
fsufan
Footballguy
fsufan
Footballguy
In my main dynasty league of 8 years I have won the regular season championship 4 times. I have only won the Superbowl once.
StraightCash
Footballguy
The answer, of course, is all of it -- 100%. Luck is simply a euphamism for chance -- i.e., probability. Your success is a simply function of the probability of events occuring. Your skill has nothing to do with that.
The skill comes in managing your probability for success, but it never takes probability out of the equation.
To use an example cited in this thread, what was the probability that Larry Johnson would supplant Priest Holmes as the starting RB in KC last year? And what was the probability that he would have success once he assumed the starting role? Both quite high in my opinion. Was it "lucky" that the string of events occured that led LJ to become the stud that he is? Or was it to be expected, due to a high degree of probability?
The point is always to put yourself in the best position win. Let the dice roll as they may.
The skill comes in managing your probability for success, but it never takes probability out of the equation.
To use an example cited in this thread, what was the probability that Larry Johnson would supplant Priest Holmes as the starting RB in KC last year? And what was the probability that he would have success once he assumed the starting role? Both quite high in my opinion. Was it "lucky" that the string of events occured that led LJ to become the stud that he is? Or was it to be expected, due to a high degree of probability?
The point is always to put yourself in the best position win. Let the dice roll as they may.
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joffer
Footballguy
i don't control whether the sun comes up tomorrow but i'm pretty sure it's gonna happen
duaneok66
Footballguy
there is luck when NFL holds its superbowl annually . . .
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This comes up a couple times a year.
I think skill in FF generally falls into tiers. If you put someone that's "good" at fantasy football with people that just know football then skill plays a big role and that "good" player will likely win most of the time.
However, the skill "cap" is very low in FF, and anyone can learn it pretty quickly with a little bit of effort and be every bit as good at it as someone that's been playing for 10 years after being tought simple ideas like VBD. If you take 12 sharks and put them in a league together then the luck factor increases exponentially and is certainly the biggest factor. There is little skill difference from shark to shark, for every great call each person makes they make an equally bad call. Put 12 sharks in a redraft together and play for 50 years and I don't think you'll see any trend, everyone will get their share of the pie as luck evens out over that time period.
I think skill in FF generally falls into tiers. If you put someone that's "good" at fantasy football with people that just know football then skill plays a big role and that "good" player will likely win most of the time.
However, the skill "cap" is very low in FF, and anyone can learn it pretty quickly with a little bit of effort and be every bit as good at it as someone that's been playing for 10 years after being tought simple ideas like VBD. If you take 12 sharks and put them in a league together then the luck factor increases exponentially and is certainly the biggest factor. There is little skill difference from shark to shark, for every great call each person makes they make an equally bad call. Put 12 sharks in a redraft together and play for 50 years and I don't think you'll see any trend, everyone will get their share of the pie as luck evens out over that time period.
Picking LJ as your RB2 was a high-risk, high-reward move. I know many people who made the playoffs solely based on getting LJ. Given that Priest hadn't made it through a full season in years, LJ was obviously a great pickup. The question really becomes, was LJ the safest pick or the smartest pick? I'd say history shows the pick was smart even if it wasn't safe. If it blew up, whatever, he's a new player. If it works out, he wins. And so the guy ends up winning.
renesauz
IBL Representative
No offense meant, but this is a dumb thread.
For those of you who honestly believe FF is more then 50% luck...I have openings next year in my bigger money leagues.
For those who believe it's more then 50% SKILL, take a hike because your ego's rattle my cage.
For those that spend an hour or two every day in the POOL...the answer should be obvious!
Luck is important, but that's true in EVERY game, and every sport. Barry Bonds is lucky to hit a home run on any given plate appearence. BUT...it's his SKILL that allows him to hit a home run on every 7 or 8 at bats. (And maybe a little help from BALCO).
The key component to a successfull fantasy football season is NEITHER! It's research...it's knowing the depth charts. It's checking daily on injuries and roster moves. It's reading the camp reports and knowing who the sleepers are.
Somebody in here mentioned that even rookies can download and use good cheatsheets at the draft....but you can figure that out by round three. I've watched rookie after rookie draft a solid team, only to ignore the rest of the pre-season, miss the fact that their third round RB just got put on IR, and not figure it out until everyone laughs at their week one lineup. They are competitive for four or five weeks, and then blame bad luck when their teams peter out.
Fantasy Football is 50% research and KNOWLEDGE...it's AWARENESS.
Luck accounts for another 25%. If your first three picks ALL go on IR by week 3...that's bad luck. If every player you draft avoids injury all year...that's good luck.
The last 25% is skill...it's knowing how to read your opponents on draft day, how to draft, how to negotiate trades, and risk mitigation.
Anyone who follows football, (or any other professional sport) will tell you that CHAMPIONS are built from skilled players, with a smattering of luck. Lose four or five pro-bowl caliber players to IR, your chances at a Super Bowl are slim. Keeping your better players healthy all year hardly gaurentees a Championship appearence though.
BOTTOM LINE: AWARENESS will put you in a position to compete.
Adding SKILL will put you consistantly in the playoffs.
A little luck sprinkled in will take you to the Super Bowl (and win it if there's enough luck).
I made it to the playoff in 9 of 12 leagues last year, and 4 Championship games...many of the more frequent posters in here have similar results year after year. There's a very good reason why they are laughing at those who insist this fantasy football thing is all luck. Extraordinary luck can take a rookie to the Super Bowl, but not to 9 playoffs in 12 leagues.
CHEERS!
For those of you who honestly believe FF is more then 50% luck...I have openings next year in my bigger money leagues.
For those who believe it's more then 50% SKILL, take a hike because your ego's rattle my cage.
For those that spend an hour or two every day in the POOL...the answer should be obvious!
Luck is important, but that's true in EVERY game, and every sport. Barry Bonds is lucky to hit a home run on any given plate appearence. BUT...it's his SKILL that allows him to hit a home run on every 7 or 8 at bats. (And maybe a little help from BALCO).
The key component to a successfull fantasy football season is NEITHER! It's research...it's knowing the depth charts. It's checking daily on injuries and roster moves. It's reading the camp reports and knowing who the sleepers are.
Somebody in here mentioned that even rookies can download and use good cheatsheets at the draft....but you can figure that out by round three. I've watched rookie after rookie draft a solid team, only to ignore the rest of the pre-season, miss the fact that their third round RB just got put on IR, and not figure it out until everyone laughs at their week one lineup. They are competitive for four or five weeks, and then blame bad luck when their teams peter out.
Fantasy Football is 50% research and KNOWLEDGE...it's AWARENESS.
Luck accounts for another 25%. If your first three picks ALL go on IR by week 3...that's bad luck. If every player you draft avoids injury all year...that's good luck.
The last 25% is skill...it's knowing how to read your opponents on draft day, how to draft, how to negotiate trades, and risk mitigation.
Anyone who follows football, (or any other professional sport) will tell you that CHAMPIONS are built from skilled players, with a smattering of luck. Lose four or five pro-bowl caliber players to IR, your chances at a Super Bowl are slim. Keeping your better players healthy all year hardly gaurentees a Championship appearence though.
BOTTOM LINE: AWARENESS will put you in a position to compete.
Adding SKILL will put you consistantly in the playoffs.
A little luck sprinkled in will take you to the Super Bowl (and win it if there's enough luck).
I made it to the playoff in 9 of 12 leagues last year, and 4 Championship games...many of the more frequent posters in here have similar results year after year. There's a very good reason why they are laughing at those who insist this fantasy football thing is all luck. Extraordinary luck can take a rookie to the Super Bowl, but not to 9 playoffs in 12 leagues.
CHEERS!
