What round does Jermichael Finley get redrafted in? (1 Viewer)

[-jb-]

In 2010, Jermichael Finley typically got drafted in the fifth round, and was around the 4th TE off the board. For 2011, we've got a few factors that will have varying degrees of impact on his outlook:

- No sleeper factor: While the cat was out of the bag by the beginning of the season, many were afforded the luxury of waiting on him. Not in 2011.

- Injury: Where will he be in his recovery? Will he be as explosive this season, or will we need to wait another year to see his full potential? Or will he ever even be the same?

- Emergence/regression of other players: Will Marcedes Lewis continue his solid play? Will Gates ever be the same?

Based on what you know now...where do you see Finley getting drafted? Will that draft position represent value?

Hyperbole welcome.

 

[nlgb1]

3rd. guy could have a scary good season next year. just needs to stay healthy, something he hasnt done the last 2 years

 

[Phlash]

His recent injury was a freak incident - no reason to think he is injury prone, maybe just unlucky. I bet he bounced back in a huge way next year. If Driver and/or Jones go out the door, watch out. Aaron Rodgers will get it in his hands and he will make plays.

 

[oukurt]

Not again.

 

[Dragon1952]

It might depend on PPR vs Non-PPR, and/or flex option for 2 TE's, but somebody will take him 4th rd. easy.

 

[Da Guru]

In 2010, Jermichael Finley typically got drafted in the fifth round, and was around the 4th TE off the board. For 2011, we've got a few factors that will have varying degrees of impact on his outlook:- No sleeper factor: While the cat was out of the bag by the beginning of the season, many were afforded the luxury of waiting on him. Not in 2011.- Injury: Where will he be in his recovery? Will he be as explosive this season, or will we need to wait another year to see his full potential? Or will he ever even be the same?- Emergence/regression of other players: Will Marcedes Lewis continue his solid play? Will Gates ever be the same?Based on what you know now...where do you see Finley getting drafted? Will that draft position represent value?Hyperbole welcome.

Please say the amount of teams in the league. A 8-10 league is much different than a 12-14 team league in what rounds players are drafted..

 

[dharmapunk]

1.02

Right after Jesus.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Wow....I picked 5th. I'd figure his value would drop because of the injury. He'll be a top 5 TE imo, and the value of Jennings should drop because of it.

 

[FUBAR]

I prefer to look at it by position.

TE - Witten, Clark, VD, Gates, then Finley.

Could be a great risk/reward.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

I prefer to look at it by position. TE - Witten, Clark, VD, Gates, then Finley. Could be a great risk/reward.

After those top 4 there's going to be a cluster of Finley, Pettigrew, KW2, Zach, Marcedes, and maybe Jimmy Graham as the 2011's version of Finley... Out of that tier I think Finley is the obvious pick so as TE5 he should probably land between rounds 4-5.

 

[RBM]

GB has so many weapons in that passing game, thats his only issue really.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I prefer to look at it by position. TE - Witten, Clark, VD, Gates, then Finley. Could be a great risk/reward.

After those top 4 there's going to be a cluster of Finley, Pettigrew, KW2, Zach, Marcedes, and maybe Jimmy Graham as the 2011's version of Finley... Out of that tier I think Finley is the obvious pick so as TE5 he should probably land between rounds 4-5.

I might even take him over Witten, whose stats were inflated because Kitna dumped it down to him so much the last half of the season.

 

[Sylira21]

Size of league and scoring system alter this dramatically.

 

[thehornet]

5th round sounds about right in standard leagues based on his inability to play full season (so far).

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

someone always jumps for the top 1-2 TE's in the third round (12 teamer). I think that will be the case here. MIGHT be the 4th depending on how rehab goes.

 

[two_dollars]

Toss up for first overall between Finley and Chuck Norris.

But seriously though, Finley should be a lock for 150/2000/25.

 

[comfortably numb]

I do 16 team IDP leagues 1.5 PPR for TE with a flex option of starting 2TE and 1RB

He was taken at 2.08 last year in one draft.

This year I expect late 1st or early 2nd.

 

[Steed]

His recent injury was a freak incident - no reason to think he is injury prone, maybe just unlucky. I bet he bounced back in a huge way next year. If Driver and/or Jones go out the door, watch out. Aaron Rodgers will get it in his hands and he will make plays.

He's been dealing with that knee for 2 straight years now. He even complained about it last offseason. Seems more like a recurring issue than a freak injury.

 

[greggorymac]

Yeah, I think a much better poll question would be what TE rank would you draft him, rather than which round? That way you can get around all the factors like league size, scoring, etc. which might influence round drafted in.

Even though Finley's coming back from injury, I think the potency of the GB offense is proof enough that Finley will once again have the opportunity to put up WR-like numbers. I could see him being drafted anywhere from TE1 to TE5. Yes Finley has questions about health, but so do Gates and Clark. Who will be throwing the ball to VD? and were Mercedes' numbers a fluke? All the top TEs have questions going into 2011. I would rank him as TE2 (behind Gates).

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

5th round sounds about right in standard leagues based on his inability to play full season (so far).

This will be similar to arian foster. While this might be where he should go, you know at least one guy in your league is gonna grab him around or 2 higher than that.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Yeah, I think a much better poll question would be what TE rank would you draft him, rather than which round? That way you can get around all the factors like league size, scoring, etc. which might influence round drafted in.Even though Finley's coming back from injury, I think the potency of the GB offense is proof enough that Finley will once again have the opportunity to put up WR-like numbers. I could see him being drafted anywhere from TE1 to TE5. Yes Finley has questions about health, but so do Gates and Clark. Who will be throwing the ball to VD? and were Mercedes' numbers a fluke? All the top TEs have questions going into 2011. I would rank him as TE2 (behind Gates).

it's nuts to think that marcedes doesn't regress. His numbers are hyper inflated based on a lot of red zone TD's. If Jax makes any improvement in defense, those numbers are gonna drop substantially.and I'm a marcedes owner.No way in hell I take marcedes over finley. I see him more at TE 9-12 range.

 

[Al Toon's Mole]

Forget about Finley, the TE to have next year is gonna be Jimmy Graham....kid is gonna be a STUD!

 

[JohnnyU]

1.02Right after Jesus.

No, right after Mike Ditka.Mike Ditka > Jesus

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think Finley is the #2 TE going into next years drafts, with Gates ahead of him. Vernon Davis could move into that spot, but I'd need to see how good his new QB is before making that call.

Dallas Clark is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injury. I wouldn't be shocked to see Tamme eat into some of his workload. Maybe its only 20%, but it could happen in the interest of keeping their stud TE healthy for the playoffs.

Witten did very well this year, but he scored 8 TDs in 11 games with Kitna. He scored 7 TDs in the prior 38 games with Romo.

Jimmy Graham is a nice prospect at the moment, but I'm not ready to put him in the top 5 yet.

Gronk scored 55% of his points in three games this year. He looks like a good TE to have, I'm not ready to put him top 5 yet though either.

 

[Al Toon's Mole]

I think Finley is the #2 TE going into next years drafts, with Gates ahead of him. Vernon Davis could move into that spot, but I'd need to see how good his new QB is before making that call.Dallas Clark is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injury. I wouldn't be shocked to see Tamme eat into some of his workload. Maybe its only 20%, but it could happen in the interest of keeping their stud TE healthy for the playoffs. Witten did very well this year, but he scored 8 TDs in 11 games with Kitna. He scored 7 TDs in the prior 38 games with Romo. Jimmy Graham is a nice prospect at the moment, but I'm not ready to put him in the top 5 yet. Gronk scored 55% of his points in three games this year. He looks like a good TE to have, I'm not ready to put him top 5 yet though either.

Yet a guy who got hyped on a fantasy boards and ended his season on IR is worthy of the #2?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think Finley is the #2 TE going into next years drafts, with Gates ahead of him. Vernon Davis could move into that spot, but I'd need to see how good his new QB is before making that call.Dallas Clark is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off injury. I wouldn't be shocked to see Tamme eat into some of his workload. Maybe its only 20%, but it could happen in the interest of keeping their stud TE healthy for the playoffs. Witten did very well this year, but he scored 8 TDs in 11 games with Kitna. He scored 7 TDs in the prior 38 games with Romo. Jimmy Graham is a nice prospect at the moment, but I'm not ready to put him in the top 5 yet. Gronk scored 55% of his points in three games this year. He looks like a good TE to have, I'm not ready to put him top 5 yet though either.

Yet a guy who got hyped on a fantasy boards and ended his season on IR is worthy of the #2?

Finley was more than just hype on fantasy boards. He had 21 catches on 26 targets in four games in 2010, averaging 14.3 yards per reception. He clearly was being featured in the Packer offense. Let's not forget that he catches passes from Aaron Rodgers as well. That alone gives him a huge bump over most of the rest. (Gates/Rivers being a big exception. Graham could be included here too, we just don't know if he'll ever be featured like Gates or Finley.)He missed 3 weeks in 2009 due to an injury. Here's his 12 game logs since.7/54/03/25/07/79/25/70/09/74/13/80/04/34/16/159/04/47/04/103/09/115/04/36/1That's 65/876/5 over 3/4s of a season, which is 82/1168/7 over 16 games. The numbers that Finley produced over his last 12 games is about the 3 year average for fantasy points from Witten in a full season. I'm also putting Gates at #1 despite the fact that he ended up on IR as well.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

2011 will be an extremely interesting year for TE rankings.

I can see a somewhat universal Top 5 of Gates, Witten, Finley, VDavis & Clark in any order, BUT there are probably another 5 TEs that could each very easily find their way into the top bracket (including Graham, Gronk/Hernandez, Pettigrew, Marcedes and Cooley). And does Gonzo make it back for one more year?

I'm thinking Pettigrew may be the most likely to creep into the top bracket.

As for Finley, I'll be targeting him as TE #2 or #3 (depending upon the health of Gates).

 

[JohnnyU]

2011 will be an extremely interesting year for TE rankings.

I can see a somewhat universal Top 5 of Gates, Witten, Finley, VDavis & Clark in any order, BUT there are probably another 5 TEs that could each very easily find their way into the top bracket (including Graham, Gronk/Hernandez, Pettigrew, Marcedes and Cooley). And does Gonzo make it back for one more year?

I'm thinking Pettigrew may be the most likely to creep into the top bracket.

As for Finley, I'll be targeting him as TE #2 or #3 (depending upon the health of Gates).

LOL, yeah, good luck targeting him as a TE #2 unless you have two 4th round picks and love to draft two TEs back to back. To be more realistic you can get Jimmy Graham as a TE #2 in 2011, but that will change in 2012.Edited, sorry, I misunderstood your post.

 

[-jb-]

2011 will be an extremely interesting year for TE rankings.

I can see a somewhat universal Top 5 of Gates, Witten, Finley, VDavis & Clark in any order, BUT there are probably another 5 TEs that could each very easily find their way into the top bracket (including Graham, Gronk/Hernandez, Pettigrew, Marcedes and Cooley). And does Gonzo make it back for one more year?

I'm thinking Pettigrew may be the most likely to creep into the top bracket.

As for Finley, I'll be targeting him as TE #2 or #3 (depending upon the health of Gates).

LOL, yeah, good luck targeting him as a TE #2 unless you have two 4th round picks and love to draft two TEs back to back.

You're reading it wrong.

 

[JohnnyU]

2011 will be an extremely interesting year for TE rankings.

I can see a somewhat universal Top 5 of Gates, Witten, Finley, VDavis & Clark in any order, BUT there are probably another 5 TEs that could each very easily find their way into the top bracket (including Graham, Gronk/Hernandez, Pettigrew, Marcedes and Cooley). And does Gonzo make it back for one more year?

I'm thinking Pettigrew may be the most likely to creep into the top bracket.

As for Finley, I'll be targeting him as TE #2 or #3 (depending upon the health of Gates).

LOL, yeah, good luck targeting him as a TE #2 unless you have two 4th round picks and love to draft two TEs back to back.

You're reading it wrong.

I realize that now, thanks.

 

[-jb-]

2011 will be an extremely interesting year for TE rankings.

I can see a somewhat universal Top 5 of Gates, Witten, Finley, VDavis & Clark in any order, BUT there are probably another 5 TEs that could each very easily find their way into the top bracket (including Graham, Gronk/Hernandez, Pettigrew, Marcedes and Cooley). And does Gonzo make it back for one more year?

I'm thinking Pettigrew may be the most likely to creep into the top bracket.

As for Finley, I'll be targeting him as TE #2 or #3 (depending upon the health of Gates).

LOL, yeah, good luck targeting him as a TE #2 unless you have two 4th round picks and love to draft two TEs back to back.

You're reading it wrong.

I realize that now, thanks.

I help people. It's what I do.

 

[FUBAR]

Forget about Finley, the TE to have next year is gonna be Jimmy Graham....kid is gonna be a STUD!

I'll take Jared Cook a lot later.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I prefer to look at it by position. TE - Witten, Clark, VD, Gates, then Finley. Could be a great risk/reward.

And that's how you should look at it when you're not talking about a spefic league size and point system for players.In my head, I think of a 12 team league, non ppr which requires a TE position.If that was the case, I think I'd draft him in the 5th round, anywhere else would be a little too high for me. I realize there's potential for a better season but there's also evidence he's injury prone and if someone in the 3rd and 4th want to go with him, I'm fine with passing on him and taking a solid WR in the 5th.

 

[-jb-]

I prefer to look at it by position.

TE - Witten, Clark, VD, Gates, then Finley.

Could be a great risk/reward.

And that's how you should look at it when you're not talking about a spefic league size and point system for players.In my head, I think of a 12 team league, non ppr which requires a TE position.

If that was the case, I think I'd draft him in the 5th round, anywhere else would be a little too high for me. I realize there's potential for a better season but there's also evidence he's injury prone and if someone in the 3rd and 4th want to go with him, I'm fine with passing on him and taking a solid WR in the 5th.

This is how I think about it as well.

 

[bulger2holt]

George W Bush, "Burn me once, shame on me, burn me twice......If you get burned, you can't get burned again.

 

[bulger2holt]

Guys like Pettigrew and Mercedes Lewis were WW fodder this year. I will no longer reach for a TE.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Guys like Pettigrew and Mercedes Lewis were WW fodder this year. I will no longer reach for a TE.

I disagree with you on this one. In my 12 man non-ppr redraft league, Gates went 3.12, Finley went 4.03. The next TEs were Vernon Davis at 5.02, and Clark at 5.03. Here's a list of the WRs that went in between.4.06 DeSean Jackson4.07 Chad Ochocinco4.08 Anquan Boldin4.09 Steve Smith (CAR)4.10 Wes Welker 4.11 Steve Smith (NYG)5.01 Terrell OwensNow obviously the guy that got DeSean Jackson did well, although I'd argue Gates was still a better pick. Finley looked solid too until he got hurt. The WRs from that round turned out to be a bunch of WR2s for the most part, with a couple of busts to boot. The talent available at the TE position is just greater in RD4-5 than the WR talent IMO.

 

[Instinctive]

I think we're very wrong to be looking at Pettigrew as a top 7 or so option next year, or even as top 10.

Every single time Stafford played, Pettigrew was practically useless. All his good games came when Shaun Hill was throwing, and his best games were when Sheffler was also out. Just something to think about...maybe Stafford looks to him more or gets injured again, both very possible, but I would rather take a chance on a different guy who is more likely to succeed.

 

[bulger2holt]

Guys like Pettigrew and Mercedes Lewis were WW fodder this year. I will no longer reach for a TE.

I disagree with you on this one. In my 12 man non-ppr redraft league, Gates went 3.12, Finley went 4.03. The next TEs were Vernon Davis at 5.02, and Clark at 5.03. Here's a list of the WRs that went in between.4.06 DeSean Jackson4.07 Chad Ochocinco4.08 Anquan Boldin4.09 Steve Smith (CAR)4.10 Wes Welker 4.11 Steve Smith (NYG)5.01 Terrell OwensNow obviously the guy that got DeSean Jackson did well, although I'd argue Gates was still a better pick. Finley looked solid too until he got hurt. The WRs from that round turned out to be a bunch of WR2s for the most part, with a couple of busts to boot. The talent available at the TE position is just greater in RD4-5 than the WR talent IMO.

why are you limiting it to only wr's ?

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

Wow....I picked 5th. I'd figure his value would drop because of the injury. He'll be a top 5 TE imo, and the value of Jennings should drop because of it.

i don't know how much or if any Jennings will drop after what chemistry and changes to the offense brought after finley went down. look at Rodgers passing yards for the first 4games with finley and then look after when they decided to make jennings more of a focal point. it may have happened regardless of finely's injury, but the packers offense really got it going after week4.that being said i see no reason why Finley still can't return to a top 8 or so fantasy season(ppr or not)