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The fake punt is a calculated gamble. It works or it doesn't, and the results determine if the talking heads declare it to be idiocy or genius at work.The attempt to beat the two-minute warning with a field goal attempt appeared to indicate panic. Kicking the ball at 2:02 would literally have saved two seconds, and a missed field goal appears to end your season. That rushing the two minute warning effort should never have happened.
They said the wind was the reason. I'm definitely going with Belichick knowing his kicker's range there better than I do.J
It makes sense if you can kick the FG by 2:04, then get a touchback on the ensuing kickoff (or just kick it out of bounds). Then the Jets would have had 1st down at 2:01, giving the Pats a free timeout. But the Pats took so long on that pass to Welker that they couldn't even get the FG unit onto the field until 2:02, at which point it was pointless to make the kick.It was a good idea in theory, but it was very poorly executed and it almost cost them the game.
Does the wind affect the offense's chance of converting 4th and 13?
Not as negatively as it would affect a long field goal, not by a longshot.Graham's kickoffs when kicking in that direction landed at around the 10 yard line, a good 7-9 yards off his typical kickoff range. A 51 yarder against that wind was akin to him kicking a 58-60 yarder with no wind.
thats an inherently biased sample towards ideal conditions. wind, field conditions, or even minor injuries must be factored in and were likely the reason.
Okay, fine. Let's reduce Graham's chances to 25%. That's still better than converting 4th and 13 and subsequently scoring a FG or TD.
I wondered why they wouldn't try a FG too but... Why beat this into the ground? Neither option is appealing. Graham was a fill in for an injured starter and clearly had less range. Couple that with the wind...
What is the point of running the clock down? That might have made sense against a team like the Colts (to keep Peyton Manning off the field), but why did Belichick fear Mark Sanchez?
I disagree here. It looked to me like the play was designed to go to the outside with Sammy Morris sealing the edge against Smith. Morris was in good position to throw that block and Smith would have had his work cut out for him getting to Chung at all.
