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What we learned after week 1 (1 Viewer)

Most of mine would be confirmation bias, so the biggest thing I changed my mind on was Conner.  I wasn’t very interested.

After seeing that usage pattern, his snap count, and receiving ability, he’s easily a top 10 rb until Bell shows up. 
Weird how two people can watch the same game and take away different things. He may be an RB10 for fantasy purposes, but I've seen Bell run for Pittsburgh two of the past three years as he's been on my roster, and Bell is just clearly at another level of backfield threat. 

 
Weird how two people can watch the same game and take away different things. He may be an RB10 for fantasy purposes, but I've seen Bell run for Pittsburgh two of the past three years as he's been on my roster, and Bell is just clearly at another level of backfield threat. 
I don't think anyone is arguing he's on Bell's level talent-wise. Just that Conner will be able to replace most of his production and be a RB1 while he's the starter.

DeAngelo Williams wasn't on his level either, but put up similar fantasy numbers.

 
I don't think anyone is arguing he's on Bell's level talent-wise. Just that Conner will be able to replace most of his production and be a RB1 while he's the starter.

DeAngelo Williams wasn't on his level either, but put up similar fantasy numbers.
Yeah, you're right. I didn't think he was arguing that and even conceded he may well be in the upper echelon of backs to own, fantasy-wise. It's just watching the game, even though I hate Bell's tiptoe the line strategy, you just saw where he was a more talented back than Conner, salary depending, of course. 

I mean, if you're asking for 850,000 dollars per game (Bell) and the other guy (Conner) is making 600,000 dollars per season, it might behoove the team to spend in other places. 

That's a lot of money. Anyway, anybody surprised by Conner behind this OL (I was an early adopter of this theory) is feeling serendipity if they own him today, lament if they didn't pull the trigger during their drafts (that includes me, but I wanted no part of that situation).  

 
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I don't think anyone is arguing he's on Bell's level talent-wise. Just that Conner will be able to replace most of his production and be a RB1 while he's the starter.

DeAngelo Williams wasn't on his level either, but put up similar fantasy numbers.
Yeah but don't undersell how good Deangelo was. He was the overall RB1 in Carolina for a year. 

 
print out the bills schedule... if you can roster a 2nd D it might be worth keeping an eye out for who they play 2 weeks out. they'll turn to josh allen here shortly and likely will be able to score a few points with allen at qb, but he's a rookie who'll make plenty of mistakes.

 
Really good points and conversation in here.  I tried as hard as I could to not be nosed in my observations and to remember it’s only week 1.  But there were several confirmations of trends or theories that we all had in preseason but hat played out well in week 1.  

Heres another observation: trubisky might be great one day, but this season will be growing pains.  Having said that, there are only so many mouths to feed in an offense with a qb that has not yet ascended.  You’ve got a rob, burton, Howard, Cohen, gabriel, and Miller.  

For now, in redraft, I believe that makes Miller expendable.   He’s my top drop option for my week 1 adds.  Doesn’t mean he can’t be relevant at some point this year, but I just think it won’t be until midway through the season or more unless there is an injury or total suckage from a rob and Gabriel.  

 
There's really no format that I would take Bell over Connor right now.   

Connor is more valuable than Bell in  redraft simply because Bell is sitting out and it could be for most of the season.

It's pretty much set in stone now that Connor will be the lead RB in Pittsburgh even after this season since  Bell will be gone and also 31 years old.  So that makes Connor more valuable in keeper/dynasty also.

 
Yep. Everybody is rushing too quickly, though there are certain things from the preseason that are holding form (if not playing time). Things like Sanders/Keenum and Hill/Mahomes II are already paying dividends for those that rostered them and had seen the connection.

Also, Watson relieved that game for HOU. Not to be a pedant, but I roster him, so remember it.  
He did come off the bench and he stunk. 12/23 102 yards 0 TDs, 1 Int and 16 rushing. Ofcourse it was Jacksonville who later learned was an elite D.

 
He did come off the bench and he stunk. 12/23 102 yards 0 TDs, 1 Int and 16 rushing. Ofcourse it was Jacksonville who later learned was an elite D.
Yep. Just looking at his stat lines and it wasn't under the GS for pro-football-reference so I figured I'd chime in. 

Just spitballing. Your point is not to be detracted from. It's way too early to construct a narrative out of people that didn't even have a preseason yet.  

New Orleans, by all accounts, should have a good D. The Pats will roll to form around week eight when they have it all sussed out. Etc. Too early other than the immediate QB/WR connections, which is why I should own Hill in every league. 

You have Sanders in our music one.  :football:

Football is on.  

 
Yep. Just looking at his stat lines and it wasn't under the GS for pro-football-reference so I figured I'd chime in. 

Just spitballing. Your point is not to be detracted from. It's way too early to construct a narrative out of people that didn't even have a preseason yet.  

New Orleans, by all accounts, should have a good D. The Pats will roll to form around week eight when they have it all sussed out. Etc. Too early other than the immediate QB/WR connections, which is why I should own Hill in every league. 

You have Sanders in our music one.  :football:

Football is on.  
Oh yeah, I am super pumped about Manny. I wanted him in every league I could get him in and I have said here a few times he will outscore Demaryius. However, week 1 isn't anymore telling than week 3 or week 7 or week 11. In any week, random events happen. We just read more into week 1 because we are excited for football's return and it's the only data point we have. However, in the grand scheme, it's no more of an indicator than any other week.

 
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There's really no format that I would take Bell over Connor right now.   

Connor is more valuable than Bell in  redraft simply because Bell is sitting out and it could be for most of the season.

It's pretty much set in stone now that Connor will be the lead RB in Pittsburgh even after this season since  Bell will be gone and also 31 years old.  So that makes Connor more valuable in keeper/dynasty also.
I own Connor in one dynasty league and even I will say that is nowhere near close to set in stone after one game. Fantasy is riddle with guys who started hot and faded away into obscurity.

Although I am :lol:  today because during last years rookie draft I traded up in the 3rd to grab Connor and one owner ripped me for wasting my pick and reaching (reaching in the 3rd round of a rookie draft, is there such a thing?)

 
Oh yeah, I am super pumped about Manny. I wanted him in every league I could get him in and I have said here a few times he will outscore Demaryius. However, week 1 isn't anymore telling than week 3 or week 7 or week 11. In any week, random events happen. We just read more into week 1 because we are excited fot football's return and it's the only data point we have. However, in the grand scheme, it's no more of an indicator than other week.
Yeah, that's true, but it's impossible, really, to quantify a QB/receiver connection like AB and Big Ben had/have until after its price point moves, if you know what I mean.  

 
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Weird how two people can watch the same game and take away different things. He may be an RB10 for fantasy purposes, but I've seen Bell run for Pittsburgh two of the past three years as he's been on my roster, and Bell is just clearly at another level of backfield threat. 
Ok maybe. I don’t claim to be any kind of expert on RB play. I’m just saying you have a guy get 100% of the snaps on a pretty good offense with a pretty good OL and they were letting him do all Bell’s out of the backfield receiving role. Top 10 isn’t even aggressive with that opportunity. The only other guy close to that usage was Zeke and anyone else even close also went in the first round. 

 
Yeah, that's true, but it's impossible, really, to quantify a QB/receiver connection like AB and Big Ben until after its price point moves, if you know what I mean.  
Sure, we get hunches or see mini trends and jump on them. That is definitely part of the fun of the game. Hill-Mahomes looks like dynamite combo right now. Just saying that NFL is really unpredictable because everything is small sample size. For every hunch I have had that was right, I have had at least 1 that was dead wrong.

 
Ok maybe. I don’t claim to be any kind of expert on RB play. I’m just saying you have a guy get 100% of the snaps on a pretty good offense with a pretty good OL and they were letting him do all Bell’s out of the backfield receiving role. Top 10 isn’t even aggressive with that opportunity. The only other guy close to that usage was Zeke and anyone else even close also went in the first round. 
Yeah, I'm really agreeing with you, if you read my later posts. No doubt.  Conner is definitely in the RB1 conversation if his situation holds, and in that case, you likely drafted and got some good players around him to soften the blow if Bell comes back. You have a good week or two jump on the opposition. Good work. If you got Bell and Conner late, even better, you're locked in. 

I was just talking raw football, and Bell seems like the better back, pay commensurate.  

 
Is the saints defense that bad?  It was like they weren't even on the field.

Cards offense was horrible.  Worried about Larry fitz

 
My concern as well, although trying not to make too much out of one game.

Hard to see Kelce being a target monster like he was with Smith and the largely short passing game. Mahomes’ has a penchant to air it out down the field, which is probably  going to benefit Hill and perhaps Watkins more.
While you might be right, a talent like Kelce can’t be ignored he’ll get his share. I’m not ready to throw in the towel after one week. I will keep starting him despite what happened this weekend.

Good luck,

Tex

 
This Winston talk is rubbish. I love Fitz, but he has these stellar games every so often. Can't see TB sitting Winston when he is back.
I agree that Fitz is very likely to also have some stinker games coming up. If they stick with Fitz it is most likely more of an indictment of Winston's character/leadership/decision-making  than it is any statement on Fitz. The organization may have already made a decision about Winston longterm and if they don't think he's the guy, then that would be the reason we see Fitz keep his job. 

 
Sure, we get hunches or see mini trends and jump on them. That is definitely part of the fun of the game. Hill-Mahomes looks like dynamite combo right now. Just saying that NFL is really unpredictable because everything is small sample size. For every hunch I have had that was right, I have had at least 1 that was dead wrong.
Yep. Not in disagreement. I just think, at some point, football has a weird human level where you look for a certain guy to get open and read his mind almost. I think Hill/Mahomes might be right there, same with Sanders/Keenum. You find those connections every so often in fantasy football (think Laurent Robinson and Tony Romo in 2012) and they're nothing to sniff at. The problem, as you astutely point out, is finding the hunch vs. the real connection. The Hill/Mahomes thing seems to have every quantifiable thing going for it, and Sanders/Keenum does, too.  

 
I agree that Fitz is very likely to also have some stinker games coming up. If they stick with Fitz it is most likely more of an indictment of Winston's character/leadership/decision-making  than it is any statement on Fitz. The organization may have already made a decision about Winston longterm and if they don't think he's the guy, then that would be the reason we see Fitz keep his job. 
His GM didn't help Winston's situation -- or this situation -- any by announcing before the season that the job was up for grabs. Winston is a better QB than Fitz. 

/Jets fan here

 
These are the main things I learned that I think we will continue to see.  

Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum and Pat Mahomes aren't nearly as bad as I thought they would be on new teams.  

Chargers D isn't as good as I thought, same with the Saints.  I thought both would take big steps forward this year.

As a Steelers fan, I learned that Mike Tomlin is a great coach, but a terrible PR guy when it comes to keeping things in house and not letting distractions in.  (I should of known this already).

 
These are the main things I learned that I think we will continue to see.  

Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum and Pat Mahomes aren't nearly as bad as I thought they would be on new teams.  

Chargers D isn't as good as I thought, same with the Saints.  I thought both would take big steps forward this year.

As a Steelers fan, I learned that Mike Tomlin is a great coach, but a terrible PR guy when it comes to keeping things in house and not letting distractions in.  (I should of known this already).
Chargers didn't have Boss yesterday.  Different defense without him.

 
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People trying to make Chris Carson a thing are probably a little disappointed to see Penny get the same # of touches, though Carson had a lot more yards.

In Cincy, the 17 to 1 carry split between Mixon and Bernard has to be a huge relief for Mixon's owners. No RBBC here.

 
One thing I re-learned. People will overreact to week 1 and be unable to distinguish a bad week from an actual red flag. Many of these "things learned" so far wouldn't draw a mention if they happened in week 8.

A sample of things that were said after week 1 last year...

  • No Saints RB will be worth owning. Their offense looks terrible and they'll all vulture from each other
  • Sam Bradford is a QB 1 this year
  • Mike Gillislee is the back to own in NE

 
It is not premature.  He played in 69 of of the teams 89 snaps--78% of them.  Dude had 1 reception in 69 snaps.   Week 1 was not a positive sign for Gordon owners. 
i guess i'll eat my words.  where did you pull snap counts from this early?  I didn't think those came out until Wednesday or Thursday.

 
People trying to make Chris Carson a thing are probably a little disappointed to see Penny get the same # of touches, though Carson had a lot more yards.

In Cincy, the 17 to 1 carry split between Mixon and Bernard has to be a huge relief for Mixon's owners. No RBBC here.
Carroll/Schotty must have been revolted by Carson's 7.9 YPT.

 
One thing I re-learned. People will overreact to week 1 and be unable to distinguish a bad week from an actual red flag. Many of these "things learned" so far wouldn't draw a mention if they happened in week 8.

A sample of things that were said after week 1 last year...

  • No Saints RB will be worth owning. Their offense looks terrible and they'll all vulture from each other
  • Sam Bradford is a QB 1 this year
  • Mike Gillislee is the back to own in NE
Exactly why these threads end up being pointless. Fantasy foorball is such a week to week hobby its silly to make long term projections based on one week results. Its all matchups and injuries.

 
Carroll/Schotty must have been revolted by Carson's 7.9 YPT.
I think they've been around long enough to know that the sample size is meaningless.

Doesn't mean Carson won't be favored moving forward, but they saw these guys in practice for most of the summer and still gave as many touches to the rookie who missed most of the preseason. Big contrast to the situations in Cleveland and TB where the rookie is clearly behind the veteran. They don't seem to view Carson as the guy, or least not yet.

 

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