What would you do with the #1 pick? (1 Viewer)

[jvdesigns2002]

I think you need to look at the FFPC format in regards to lineups and teams in the league when it comes to making this decision. FFPC is 12 team, 1pt ppr, 1.5pt ppr te--with starting lineups that read: 1 qb, 2 rb, 2wr, 2 flex. With it being ppr--many teams will try to start 3-4wr's--which I think means that many wr's will go very quick. To me--this scoring system seems to devalue qb's and the traditional non-pass catching rbs. I personally think that with your draft position--in this format--that you should basically implement an no-rb or a 1 rb draft (maybe draft 1 rb in the first 5-6 rounds). I'd probably go Gronk here---and then look to secure two very solid wr's with your next two picks (jordan matthews, cooks, alshon, cobb.etc). From there--I think you see what the draft gives you. The two flex spots are huge--because in the 4th/5th round--you might be better off going for a second TE like Olsen (knowing that it is a 1.5pt ppr league for Te's an that you can start multiple te's) than you are a mediocre RB.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Was reading the other day bell saying he felt faster and quicker this year, if that's even possible

 

[ryno1980]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

Gronk has 82 for 1124 and 12 TDsOlsen had 84 for 1008 and 6 TDs

This week the Panthers only other real receiving threat went down to an ACL injury and in 2015 they'll start yet another rook as their only other receiving threat.

it is not a stretch to project a few more TDs, nor for Gronk to miss some time

The year before last, Gronk only played in 7 games while Olsen is a rock

The gap between Gronk and Olsen is all you mention but Olsen's ADP is round 5. The gap is relative to players picked at comparable times so you really need to compare 1st and 5th versus 1st and 5th

Bell and Olsen is far superior to Spiller and Gronk IMO.

Spiller is a 5th round RB

Antonio and Olsen is also far superior to Gronk and Allen Robinson IMO.

Robinson is a 5th round WR

Gronkowski wasn't yet back to himself to start the season in 2014. To only use 2014 stats is a mistake here. He had 90 catches and 17 tds the last full season he started every game. Olsen doesn't provide that upside and neither do all but a couple wideouts.

 

[On The Rocks]

I'd take Bell especially with the 1 game suspension reduced from 3.

2 game suspension.

I heard on the radio it was dropped to one. I misunderstood. Still think I'd rather have Bell. He was on fire the second half of last season.

Watching Bell the second half of last season was the closest thing I have seen to LaDainian Tomlinson at his peak.

 

[Bri]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

Gronk has 82 for 1124 and 12 TDsOlsen had 84 for 1008 and 6 TDs

This week the Panthers only other real receiving threat went down to an ACL injury and in 2015 they'll start yet another rook as their only other receiving threat.

it is not a stretch to project a few more TDs, nor for Gronk to miss some time

The year before last, Gronk only played in 7 games while Olsen is a rock

The gap between Gronk and Olsen is all you mention but Olsen's ADP is round 5. The gap is relative to players picked at comparable times so you really need to compare 1st and 5th versus 1st and 5th

Bell and Olsen is far superior to Spiller and Gronk IMO.

Spiller is a 5th round RB

Antonio and Olsen is also far superior to Gronk and Allen Robinson IMO.

Robinson is a 5th round WR

Gronkowski wasn't yet back to himself to start the season in 2014. To only use 2014 stats is a mistake here. He had 90 catches and 17 tds the last full season he started every game. Olsen doesn't provide that upside and neither do all but a couple wideouts.

It has been four years since he did that.

If you utilized this thinking, you'd have been wrong three times and expect to be correct this season.

 

[Sebowski]

Been toying with RB/WR/WR/RB, but sometimes anyone I would be comfortable starting at RB are gone by the 4.12

This has me reading for a 2nd RB at the 2/3 turn instead of waiting. But when a decent RB falls to 4.12 I like my WRs so much better going RB/WR/WR/RB...

 

[ryno1980]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

Gronk has 82 for 1124 and 12 TDsOlsen had 84 for 1008 and 6 TDs

This week the Panthers only other real receiving threat went down to an ACL injury and in 2015 they'll start yet another rook as their only other receiving threat.

it is not a stretch to project a few more TDs, nor for Gronk to miss some time

The year before last, Gronk only played in 7 games while Olsen is a rock

The gap between Gronk and Olsen is all you mention but Olsen's ADP is round 5. The gap is relative to players picked at comparable times so you really need to compare 1st and 5th versus 1st and 5th

Bell and Olsen is far superior to Spiller and Gronk IMO.

Spiller is a 5th round RB

Antonio and Olsen is also far superior to Gronk and Allen Robinson IMO.

Robinson is a 5th round WR

Gronkowski wasn't yet back to himself to start the season in 2014. To only use 2014 stats is a mistake here. He had 90 catches and 17 tds the last full season he started every game. Olsen doesn't provide that upside and neither do all but a couple wideouts.

It has been four years since he did that.

If you utilized this thinking, you'd have been wrong three times and expect to be correct this season.

No, I wouldn't have been wrong. On a per-game basis, he has continued to produce at or near that level except for early last season. And obviously no one expected that sort of production last season coming off the big knee injury. If you're saying it's a poor bet he stays healthy all year, I guess you're right. All I was saying is his upside and Olsen's aren't in the same ballpark.

 

[Warrior]

I hate having the top pick because you're going to be wrong 249/250 times. The safest, most surest pick with the highest ceiling is probably Julio Jones but that doesn't mean it's your best play.

lol...what? Julio safe? What planet are we on?

"most surest" I get. He's definitely the most surest.

 

[Warrior]

I'm going Bell #1 in a 12 team non ppr.

Everyone forgets you will be starting another RB for 2 games plus Bell's high production afterwards > everyone else

Nope, Bell was the number one back last year in PPR, so he won't be number one this year, so he is worthless, so you lose.

What a tool. Your comprehension skills need work.

You're the guy betting on Black in Vegas because it hit Red the last 3 times in a row, right?

 

[rocketsauce]

Drew one #1. PPR, Non money league, but an important league with heavy bragging rights and involved owners (Reddit's /r/NarFFL league) and I'm drafting tomorrow night and going Antonio Brown. Hoping to then land Lamar Miller in the 2/3 turn with either my next RB as well, or my best available WR. I just don't like the risk of having no better than TY Hilton or Mike Evans as my WR1 in PPR.

 

[Bri]

At 1.5 ppc for te, Gronk is almost a no brainer here. Other picks, maybe you second guess yourself. With Gronk, you can sleep easy.

You could even consider Gronk at 1.1 without the extra half point.

There will be no greater delta between the #1 and #2 performers than te and Gronk's total points may put him in 6-10 of wrs.

Gronk has 82 for 1124 and 12 TDsOlsen had 84 for 1008 and 6 TDs

This week the Panthers only other real receiving threat went down to an ACL injury and in 2015 they'll start yet another rook as their only other receiving threat.

it is not a stretch to project a few more TDs, nor for Gronk to miss some time

The year before last, Gronk only played in 7 games while Olsen is a rock

The gap between Gronk and Olsen is all you mention but Olsen's ADP is round 5. The gap is relative to players picked at comparable times so you really need to compare 1st and 5th versus 1st and 5th

Bell and Olsen is far superior to Spiller and Gronk IMO.

Spiller is a 5th round RB

Antonio and Olsen is also far superior to Gronk and Allen Robinson IMO.

Robinson is a 5th round WR

Gronkowski wasn't yet back to himself to start the season in 2014. To only use 2014 stats is a mistake here. He had 90 catches and 17 tds the last full season he started every game. Olsen doesn't provide that upside and neither do all but a couple wideouts.

It has been four years since he did that.

If you utilized this thinking, you'd have been wrong three times and expect to be correct this season.

No, I wouldn't have been wrong. On a per-game basis, he has continued to produce at or near that level except for early last season. And obviously no one expected that sort of production last season coming off the big knee injury. If you're saying it's a poor bet he stays healthy all year, I guess you're right. All I was saying is his upside and Olsen's aren't in the same ballpark.

So in your league where they only score the average stats a player gets and not actual week to week stats, whom is your 5th round pick RB or WR that is going to offer comparable production to Olsen-Brown or Olsen-Bell?

This is the other half of my quoted post

 

[ryno1980]

The point I made was simple. You used one season of Gronk as if that season was the most likely result for 2015. I didn't say anything about the rest of the post because you're making a good point. No need to be defensive because I pointed out a little flaw.

 

[Bri]

The point I made was simple. You used one season of Gronk as if that season was the most likely result for 2015. I didn't say anything about the rest of the post because you're making a good point. No need to be defensive because I pointed out a little flaw.

Ya know I was sitting around wondering what I should or shouldn't get defensive about and just could not decide. You sure cleared that up. Thank you. I wish he was still playing in a two TE set with Aaron too

 

[ryno1980]

The point I made was simple. You used one season of Gronk as if that season was the most likely result for 2015. I didn't say anything about the rest of the post because you're making a good point. No need to be defensive because I pointed out a little flaw.

Ya know I was sitting around wondering what I should or shouldn't get defensive about and just could not decide. You sure cleared that up. Thank you. I wish he was still playing in a two TE set with Aaron too

With such a winning personality, I don't doubt you were.

 

[BoomBoom]

In a satellite FPC draft and got the #1 pick. Took ABrown.

Was hoping for Olsen at the turn but he went right before our pick, so ended up taking McCoy and Hill.

 

[Shutout]

I think with the #1 pick, even in today's FF, you still go with RB because there are literally only about 7 guys out there that are advantage RB players.

I love Dez, Brown, and all those beasts too, but when I look at the 2nd and 3rd pick in that scenario, I can envision a scenario where I am much happier with T. Y. Hilton, Alshon Jeffrey, and Mike Evans than Justin forsett, Frank Gore, Mark Ingram, or Alfred Morris.

Look at this: AJ Green has an ADP of about 21 right now. FREAKING AJ GREEN. So, you're telling me that all it takes is one-two unorthodox moves by eleven other guys and I could be starting my team with Peterson/Lacy/Bell and Aj Green and Alshon Jeffrey? I'll take that all day because every draft I've ever been in, SOMEBODY takes a guy early that leaves us scratching our heads and with Jimmy Graham, Russell Wilson, Manning, and Jordan Matthews all falling outside the to 25, I like my chances someone goes after one or two of those too early.

 

[matuski]

Trade down to #2 and start another thread is the Eagle move.

 

[Sebowski]

So Pouncey is out until week 12. I think I'm switching it up and going AP now.

 

[Dismattle]

What are your tendencies?

• Do you normally stock up on three fearless WR's?
• Do you load the bn w/ RB benchwarmers?
• Do you take pride in your ability to choose which TE to start on any given week
• Is the WW your best friend?

The saying goes,, You cant Win w/ your first pick, but ya can LOSE!!

Id love to say "take Gronk" but odds are it may be the only player taken that ya really wanted.. I wanna say Brown may give ya the best shot. However most Gurus want a STUD RB or two to start a draft..

I don't wanna converse just for the sake of conversing..

Is it possible to trade? Can ya get a lower pick, which includes an extra 3rd Rnd pick or something?

Fudge it Take Lacy and act like ya know wTF your doin!

 

[Truebluey]

I'm in a 12-team ppr league that awards 6 points per td even for QBs. I never take QB early (I won last year even with drafting Palmer and playing Sachez in the playoffs).

But I got the #1 pick this year and both Bell (suspension, Pouncey out) and Peterson (out a year at 30) give me pause.

Would I be crazy to take Luck and then the best available WR and rb at the 2/3 turn? With Jordy out I think Luck is so clearly the top QB this year and the "safest" choice. I'm pretty comfortable with Forsett or Miller as my lead back.

I have Kelce as a keeper so Gronk doesn't make much sense for me.

 

[Dismattle]

I'm in a 12-team ppr league that awards 6 points per td even for QBs. I never take QB early (I won last year even with drafting Palmer and playing Sachez in the playoffs).

But I got the #1 pick this year and both Bell (suspension, Pouncey out) and Peterson (out a year at 30) give me pause.

Would I be crazy to take Luck and then the best available WR and rb at the 2/3 turn? With Jordy out I think Luck is so clearly the top QB this year and the "safest" choice. I'm pretty comfortable with Forsett or Miller as my lead back.

I have Kelce as a keeper so Gronk doesn't make much sense for me.

It almost sounds like: I Won my League last year, so I wanna make it harder on myself this Season..

Picks should have some rationale that provide an advantage.. ex. How many yardage bonuses does your League offer for QB's? Penalty's for picks? Could ya just stream two or three QBs w/ favorable matchups, and achieve those same points?

Personally I believe a fully equipped Rodgers arsenal should outperform most any other QB scenario in my League!

Hopefully you could list at least six QB's who could put up similar numbers. Ideally closer to ten would be awesome.

Can you list much difference between the Top six RB's? WR's?

A discussion of the TE position goes well beyond the scope of my post! Gronk is like lost on his own Island Tier. (imo) A guy like Olsen could conceivably outperform Gronk. Im pretty sure theres another TE or two w/ somewhat positive expectations. As you believe Kelce could be Top 5 TE every week...

A discussion of the "turn" is probably a good time to discuss starting a trend as opposed to continuing...

Its going to always be best to take BPA, but it almost takes luck too achieve..

My thoughts? Read this http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2556738-fantasy-football-2015-qb-rankings-sleepers-and-risks-to-avoid/page/3 Draft known Studs in the first several rounds. FBG is flat out screaming: Take Bell with 1.01 Follow the advise. But, I wouldn't just blindly take a QB in the first rnd. Theres a good chance ya wind up with potentially at least a Top 10 QB (maybe even Brady is still available) Suspended Big deal, whose he gonna carve up during your SB week?

p.s. Id suggest posting your own thread in the future. Its almost poor form for me to respond, because now some Guru may feel obliged to point out my mistakes.. (imho) Reserve QB's in the first rnd for noob/guppie Leagues.

 

[Truebluey]

No don't apologize,your thought process is very helpful.

I'm probably just over thinking it. I just need to pull the trigger on Bell or Peterson.

 

[On The Rocks]

So Pouncey is out until week 12. I think I'm switching it up and going AP now.

I am doing the same.

I was ok with Bell's two game suspension, but now, I'm leaning toward AP.

 

[sbonomo]

Treating this as first pick thread: i am most likely going to go AP here looking to grab two wr or wr bpa on the turn. Ap had a year off and a huge chip in his shoulder. Minn has a young qb that is improving but will still need a great year out of ap. My only other thought is charles with a very good handcuff behind him. Of course the year i draw number one there are a ton of question marks at the top. I would much rather have the 6-7-8 pick this year.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

At this point I am debating between two different courses of action at the start of the draft. I am either taking the top Rb in my rankings then going best player at the 2/3 turn. If Olsen is there I will take him with one of the picks. The second option is taking Gronk, then going best available player. I might take Olsen in the 2 rd if he is still available.

I am hoping that Foster fall to me at the 4/5 turn. At 6/7 I am hoping that either Payton or Bress are still there.

Feel free to shoot holes in this plan.

 

[ponchsox]

Olsen in round 2? I passed on him in round 4.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Olsen in round 2? I passed on him in round 4.

The FFPC is a ppr format awarding TE's 1.5 ppr. Inflates the TE value. If you believe, as I do, that Olsen is the #2TE then his value is approximately that of WR 9 or RB6, which makes him a value pick at that point. But do not let me dissuade you from your strategy.

 

[GoBirds]

I'm thinking ADP.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I think an argument can be made for AP, but consider that over the past 10 years, only 1 RB who was 28 yo or older at the start of the season has finished as a top 5 RB (Tiki in 2005). AP, Charles, Lynch, Forte and Forsett will all be 28 yo or older at the start of the season. I am not sure if this is relevant or anecdotal.

 

[shader]

I think an argument can be made for AP, but consider that over the past 10 years, only 1 RB who was 28 yo or older at the start of the season has finished as a top 5 RB (Tiki in 2005). AP, Charles, Lynch, Forte and Forsett will all be 28 yo or older at the start of the season. I am not sure if this is relevant or anecdotal.

I can't figure out how anyone can make an argument for AP to be in the first round, let alone 1.01. Baffling. He's 30 and it's been 3 years since he's had a great season. He also just sat out the entire year.

 

[sbonomo]

I think an argument can be made for AP, but consider that over the past 10 years, only 1 RB who was 28 yo or older at the start of the season has finished as a top 5 RB (Tiki in 2005). AP, Charles, Lynch, Forte and Forsett will all be 28 yo or older at the start of the season. I am not sure if this is relevant or anecdotal.

I can't figure out how anyone can make an argument for AP to be in the first round, let alone 1.01. Baffling. He's 30 and it's been 3 years since he's had a great season. He also just sat out the entire year.

Assume you are a bell or lacy fan then? there is no way i can take a QB or TE - (start 1QB and 1TE) at this spot. IMO, WR is still deeper than RB so i have to start w/RB (Start 2RB + 2WR and 1flex). Lacy is an option but, i just don't buy that O-line. Bell is an option but, i am giving up two full games for a first round pick. I guess i am being conservative in thinking you won't win in the first round, but you can lose. A/P may not finish at number, one but i really don't think top three is a stretch either. The only other player i am thinking of here is Brown but once again i think WR are deeper than RB's so it will be easier, particularly from this draft spot, to backfill WR's.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I am playing this same debate in my head and still mulling it over. Part of me wants to draft who the top RB in my rankings, but if you assume that Gronk is the #1 TE this year then he offers the biggest positional advantage over all other players. I can see an argument for as many as 5 players being the #1RB, so it is more of a gamble as to who will actually finish as the #1RB.

 

[GoBirds]

I think an argument can be made for AP, but consider that over the past 10 years, only 1 RB who was 28 yo or older at the start of the season has finished as a top 5 RB (Tiki in 2005). AP, Charles, Lynch, Forte and Forsett will all be 28 yo or older at the start of the season. I am not sure if this is relevant or anecdotal.

I can't figure out how anyone can make an argument for AP to be in the first round, let alone 1.01. Baffling. He's 30 and it's been 3 years since he's had a great season. He also just sat out the entire year.

Assume you are a bell or lacy fan then? there is no way i can take a QB or TE - (start 1QB and 1TE) at this spot. IMO, WR is still deeper than RB so i have to start w/RB (Start 2RB + 2WR and 1flex). Lacy is an option but, i just don't buy that O-line. Bell is an option but, i am giving up two full games for a first round pick. I guess i am being conservative in thinking you won't win in the first round, but you can lose. A/P may not finish at number, one but i really don't think top three is a stretch either. The only other player i am thinking of here is Brown but once again i think WR are deeper than RB's so it will be easier, particularly from this draft spot, to backfill WR's.

Also I think AP finally has some talent around him that could open up the box some for the 1st time in.....ever?

 

[GoBirds]

So what is everyone doing with #1?

What do you like next time around? Thinking L Miller and is it worth reaching on Graham?

 

[sbonomo]

Had a draft last night. -12 team keep one player standard nonppr with all tds worth 6. Went ap with the first pick and planned to go wr/wr (kept anderson). Huge run on wr left me nothing when the turn came. Ended up with with cooks and graham. I typically dont pick te so high but i thought that he was worth more than any of the qbs or wr available. Next round i went keenen allan and golden tate to round out the wr core. The run of qbs had come before my turn so once again it was best available. The next round i went brady/cam. Ends up brady was a steal in the 6/7 round but cam seems like a wasted pick. Overall i am very pleased with the starting line up of ap/anderson, cooks/tate/allan, graham, brady.....i wish ny wr core had a stud but in non ppr i am happy as is. Overall i would have preferred to have a pick later in the draft where they got a stud rb and wr or two stud wr. However, i think this will be a very competitive squad.

 

[msudaisy26]

Gronk, no regrets.

This guy gets it.