What WRs are more valuable than Randy Moss now? (1 Viewer)

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Just seeing what Randy's good old value is after the Jets game.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Koren Robinson is looking mighty attractive right now.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Pretty much any WR that goes out for a pass and in which their QB even looks in their general direction.....yes that WR is worth more than Moss because Cass--hole who must hate him or can't stand looking at him.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Owens, Wayne, Marshall, and the Arizona guys. They have more stable qb situations.

 

[Franknbeans]

I selected all but Santana Moss

 

[Road Warriors]

Eddie Royal?!? I can see the poll, and there are a few I would take over Randy, but rookie Royal? Man, that is one hell of a reach.

<Parcells>Lets put away the annointing oil </Parcells>

Marshall, TO, Reggie & Fitz.

Maybe Anquan, Calvin & Plax. I'll hang with Randy over the rest. Its a long season.

 

[HoTnickZ]

I predicted Moss would be used as a decoy this week because he went from injured to healthy in an instant. I think he was still banged up. He could be a decent buy low.

 

[David Yudkin]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.

I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.

We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I know I'm looking like a stats chaser with this statement, but I'd honestly rather have Calvin than Randy right now.

 

[FUBAR]

No DeSean Jackson option?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

If there is a Belichick checklist for Cassel, he has (a) successfully come into a game, and (b) successfully started a game. With Miami and San Fran coming up, you've got to believe there will be exploration of the playbook, as NE will have to increase output to keep up with SD, Denver, Indy, etc. The situation with Cassel has been "boring" so far, but now it get's interesting as Cassel is challenged to do more. In other words, would you suppose NE attempts to get to an 85% of anticipated production, or that it will "stand pat" and attempt to win all their games 19-10?

 

[David Yudkin]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

If there is a Belichick checklist for Cassel, he has (a) successfully come into a game, and (b) successfully started a game. With Miami and San Fran coming up, you've got to believe there will be exploration of the playbook, as NE will have to increase output to keep up with SD, Denver, Indy, etc. The situation with Cassel has been "boring" so far, but now it get's interesting as Cassel is challenged to do more. In other words, would you suppose NE attempts to get to an 85% of anticipated production, or that it will "stand pat" and attempt to win all their games 19-10?

I still use the 01 Pats as a baseline for Cassel. NE will be happy to win every game 19-10.I suspect they will open up the offense a little more against weaker teams heading forward, but I doubt they will approach last year's game plans. THey beat the Jets on defense and special teams and not turning the ball over offensively. I suspect if they can keep winning with that philosophy they won't change much. In this case, their offense will be given more to do based on the weakness of the defense.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

If there is a Belichick checklist for Cassel, he has (a) successfully come into a game, and (b) successfully started a game. With Miami and San Fran coming up, you've got to believe there will be exploration of the playbook, as NE will have to increase output to keep up with SD, Denver, Indy, etc. The situation with Cassel has been "boring" so far, but now it get's interesting as Cassel is challenged to do more. In other words, would you suppose NE attempts to get to an 85% of anticipated production, or that it will "stand pat" and attempt to win all their games 19-10?

I still use the 01 Pats as a baseline for Cassel. NE will be happy to win every game 19-10.I suspect they will open up the offense a little more against weaker teams heading forward, but I doubt they will approach last year's game plans. THey beat the Jets on defense and special teams and not turning the ball over offensively. I suspect if they can keep winning with that philosophy they won't change much. In this case, their offense will be given more to do based on the weakness of the defense.

So you would project Cassel in the Hasselback / Garrard / Edwards tier? And Moss will get 8-10 TDs?

 

[Johnny Ice]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

If there is a Belichick checklist for Cassel, he has (a) successfully come into a game, and (b) successfully started a game. With Miami and San Fran coming up, you've got to believe there will be exploration of the playbook, as NE will have to increase output to keep up with SD, Denver, Indy, etc. The situation with Cassel has been "boring" so far, but now it get's interesting as Cassel is challenged to do more. In other words, would you suppose NE attempts to get to an 85% of anticipated production, or that it will "stand pat" and attempt to win all their games 19-10?

I agree. I know the Patriots are all about winning regardless of how it looks but vs. the cupcakes of the league I can't bring myself to believe they will not feed Moss to keep him happy. If he comes out of these next two games with a total of 50 yds receiving and 0 TDs, he is going to mentally check out.

 

[glumpy]

So you would project Cassel in the Hasselback / Garrard / Edwards tier? And Moss will get 8-10 TDs?

I'm concerned primarily that with a reduced playbook and restricted gameplan that Moss will get demotivated again.

 

[Why Me?]

I agree. I know the Patriots are all about winning regardless of how it looks but vs. the cupcakes of the league I can't bring myself to believe they will not feed Moss to keep him happy. If he comes out of these next two games with a total of 50 yds receiving and 0 TDs, he is going to mentally check out.

Isn't it possible Moss only checks out if he isn't getting the ball AND his team is losing? Has he ever checked out on a winning team?Look at Moss's comments after the game on Sunday. Nobody was happier, no hint of displeasure on how he was used. I personally think he'll still finishes in the top 10. He'll bouce back with 100 and a TD this week.

 

[timschochet]

FBG still regards Moss as the #1 WR, as of last night (David Dodds-top 250 going forward.) I'm interstested if there's something they know or think they know that everybody else is missing...

 

[slayer666]

In no particular order:

TO

Reggie Wayne

Brandon Marshall

Calvin Johnson

Anquan Boldin

Plaxico Burress

Larry Fitzgerald

 

[hooter311]

A lot of you guys are nucking futs.

He had one poor game with a QB that hasn't started since high school in not so perfect weather. If it wasn't for one bad pass his end game line would have been more like 70 yards and a TD.

Greg Jennings?

Robert Royal?

Santana Moss?

Have fun kicking yourself in December if you sell low now.

 

[sdsjr3]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

Hi David,Isn't it reasonable to think that, given Belicheck's track record, Randy was more of a decoy this week? The Jets have a good D and I think the Pats really wanted to grind this one out. Further, Mangini is no dummy, the Jets were rotating coverage Randy's way all day. As most teams will do, difference is Kerry Rhodes is a stud and closes quick. I think this was Bill's way of letting Cassell get his feet wet as a starter. I'm a huge jets fan, but I had very little confidence we would win this game. I thought the Pats would run it down our throat (and I suspected Lamont would be the guy, and in the end he pretty much was). Moss, IMO, will still be a very good WR this year. Top 10 in fact. he's just not going to repeat last year. Cassell seems to have a pretty decent feel in the pocket and once he gets a bit more comfortable I think he'll be a good game manager. His arm is good enough to lay it out to Moss when they decide to do that. And I'm sure they will. This is an opportunity, once again, for Bellicheck to prove he's the best coach in the NFL. But to win, Moss has to be a part of the game plan. this week he just was used differently. I would be very surprised if this becomes the norm however.For fantasy purposes, i don't think he's going to take a hit quite as big as it's being made out to be, but I could be wrong.

 

[David Yudkin]

Through 7 quarters, Cassel has 41 passing attempts (roughly 23.5 per game over a full game). New England averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game in 2007. So far, Cassel has been passing the ball more than a third fewer times than Brady did.I think Moss takes a bigger hit than Welker does, as the short passing game will stick throughout the year, and I don't think Cassel will target Moss as much as Brady did.We'll have to reassess this situation once the Pats play teams where they have to come out of their shell instead of playing conservatively and letting the defense win the game for them.

Hi David,Isn't it reasonable to think that, given Belicheck's track record, Randy was more of a decoy this week? The Jets have a good D and I think the Pats really wanted to grind this one out. Further, Mangini is no dummy, the Jets were rotating coverage Randy's way all day. As most teams will do, difference is Kerry Rhodes is a stud and closes quick. I think this was Bill's way of letting Cassell get his feet wet as a starter. I'm a huge jets fan, but I had very little confidence we would win this game. I thought the Pats would run it down our throat (and I suspected Lamont would be the guy, and in the end he pretty much was). Moss, IMO, will still be a very good WR this year. Top 10 in fact. he's just not going to repeat last year. Cassell seems to have a pretty decent feel in the pocket and once he gets a bit more comfortable I think he'll be a good game manager. His arm is good enough to lay it out to Moss when they decide to do that. And I'm sure they will. This is an opportunity, once again, for Bellicheck to prove he's the best coach in the NFL. But to win, Moss has to be a part of the game plan. this week he just was used differently. I would be very surprised if this becomes the norm however.For fantasy purposes, i don't think he's going to take a hit quite as big as it's being made out to be, but I could be wrong.

Moss' usage and production will lie somewhere between this week (low) to early last year (extremely high). I still think he will be slighlty on the lower side of the middle. In games where the Pats will have to score 30 points to win, yes he should be targeted more. But the other games I think the Pats will be content to win 17-10, keep everyone healthy, and move on to the next game.Again using Brady 01 as a guideline, he only had 4 games with 30 or more passes. I suspect the Pats would love to limit Cassel to under 30 attempts if at all possible and still win. Brady had one huge game yardage wise that season (368 yards) and the next closest was 258. I get that this offense should be better than the 01 version, but the principle of doing enough to win hasn't changed. Brady had 3 games with 3 or more TD passes (for a total of 10 in those games). That means Brady had only 8 TD passes in 12 other games.

 

[tombonneau]

If Moss is able to haul down that bomb last week or Cassel puts just a bit more air under it, this poll does not exist and no one is worried about Moss. His demise is greatly exaggerated. No, he is not going to put up close to the stats he did last year and will not justify his draft position but that is water under the bridge at this point; however, he will still put up numbers to qualify as a mid- to low-tier WR1. I'm likely going to attempt to acquire him in my league.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Moss is able to haul down that bomb last week or Cassel puts just a bit more air under it, this poll does not exist and no one is worried about Moss. His demise is greatly exaggerated. No, he is not going to put up close to the stats he did last year and will not justify his draft position but that is water under the bridge at this point; however, he will still put up numbers to qualify as a mid- to low-tier WR1. I'm likely going to attempt to acquire him in my league.

For argument's sake, let's give Moss that 50 yard TD catch.That would mean in two games with Cassel he would have:GAME 1: 3-56-1GAME 2: 3-72-1After two weeks: 6 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TD. (He had 3 catches for 50 yards with Brady early in the KC game.)In 0 PPR leagues, he would have 23.8 points . . . and would rank 15th in ppg.IN 1 PPR leagues, he would have 29.8 points . . . and would rank 19th in ppg.But I'm pretty sure would could find one play for a lot of receivers that IF things were different they would have had another TD.

 

[R Dizzle]

No Andre Johnson option?

 

[R Dizzle]

Terrell Owens

Marshall

Fitzgerald

Andre Johnson

Those are the only recievers I would own over him. I own Moss, AJ and Boldin and I think I would rather dish off Boldin before any of the three.

 

[Hue G]

It still baffles me as to how many more people think Fitzgerald is more valuable than Boldin especially with Warner throwing the ball.

 

[R Dizzle]

It still baffles me as to how many more people think Fitzgerald is more valuable than Boldin especially with Warner throwing the ball.

The things I'm worried about: He has a history of getting injured, he has big games in spurts, he has Drew Rosenhaus as an agent who said "It's a shame that he'll be wearing a Cardinals uniform against the Dolphins, than the other way around." But looking at last years stats Boldin would've had better stats than Fitz if he had played all season.

 

[David Yudkin]

It still baffles me as to how many more people think Fitzgerald is more valuable than Boldin especially with Warner throwing the ball.

In 22 games where Warner started and Fitz and Boldin both played:Boldin:217 targets, 153 receptions, 2128 receiving yards, 13 TD, 290.8 fantasy pointsFitzgerald:217 targets, 137 receptions, 1918 receiving yards, 15 TD, 281.8 fantasy pointsAlmost a dead heat.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

No Andre Johnson option?

Oversight obviously. I actually thought I had put it in there. I'm a little surprised that Greg Jennings gets so little love. Aaron Rodgers loves throwing to that guy - 258 yards already.

 

[BobbyLayne]

So you would project Cassel in the Hasselback / Garrard / Edwards tier? And Moss will get 8-10 TDs?

I'm concerned primarily that with a reduced playbook and restricted gameplan that Moss will get demotivated again.

Valid point for Week 2 and perhaps much of September.They'll open up the playbook and let Cassel take shots down the road, but with the conservative game plan Mangini ran, there was no need to this week. In a few weeks I think Moss goes back to all-universe status.For purposes of the poll, I put him behind 4 guys (Owens, Wayne, Marshall and Megatron). For now...and it will change, one way or another.

 

[Hue G]

well I just traded Jamal Lewis for Moss, thought that was a decent deal since it looks like Lewis probably won't do anything anyway

 

[GoBirds]

Just offered Moss/Schaub for Braylon and Jacobs to a guy with no QB's. Is Braylon a complete dud this year?

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

No Steve Smith? He'll be back this week on a very good Panthers team and a healthy Delhomme. I think he's going to benefit the owners who were patient to sit these past two weeks out.

 

[TitusIII]

Just offered Moss/Schaub for Braylon and Jacobs to a guy with no QB's. Is Braylon a complete dud this year?

Probably a dud releative to the extremely lofty expectations, but I think he has more up-side than Moss at this point. I'm offering him to 13 of the 15 other teams in my league along with Chad Johnson. I have about 15 WR's on my list that I'd rather have at this point.EDIT: Regarding Smith, no question in my mind he out-produces Moss from this point on...in fact, I think he will be the #1 WR in FF the rest of the way...if you can get him for Moss, now is the time to jump on it

 

[big0mar]

Moss is the best player on that team right now. Belichick will figure out a way to get him the ball.

I suspect Moss may have a game or two like last week. But NE is going to be successful running the ball. Eventually Moss will not be getting coverage rolled toward him.

He's not going to be what he was last year, but I still think he is a top 5-7 WR.

 

[David Yudkin]

Moss is the best player on that team right now. Belichick will figure out a way to get him the ball.I suspect Moss may have a game or two like last week. But NE is going to be successful running the ball. Eventually Moss will not be getting coverage rolled toward him.He's not going to be what he was last year, but I still think he is a top 5-7 WR.

The Pats are not a great running team and are built to pass protect not run block.They currently rank 9th in attempts (which you think would be a good thing) but rank 15th in rushing yards and 19th in ypc (both not good things given the amount they've been running the ball).Teams will look to take out their biggest weapon . . . which clearly is Moss.I would think Moss having a big week will be the exception instead of the rule.

 

[Why Me?]

Moss is the best player on that team right now. Belichick will figure out a way to get him the ball.I suspect Moss may have a game or two like last week. But NE is going to be successful running the ball. Eventually Moss will not be getting coverage rolled toward him.He's not going to be what he was last year, but I still think he is a top 5-7 WR.

The Pats are not a great running team and are built to pass protect not run block.They currently rank 9th in attempts (which you think would be a good thing) but rank 15th in rushing yards and 19th in ypc (both not good things given the amount they've been running the ball).Teams will look to take out their biggest weapon . . . which clearly is Moss.I would think Moss having a big week will be the exception instead of the rule.

Would love to hear why David and Joe think otherwise. Have you asked them about it?Oddly though, Moss was listed as a "Downgrade" in Joe's email, yet is still ranked #1 going forward.

 

[David Yudkin]

Moss is the best player on that team right now. Belichick will figure out a way to get him the ball.I suspect Moss may have a game or two like last week. But NE is going to be successful running the ball. Eventually Moss will not be getting coverage rolled toward him.He's not going to be what he was last year, but I still think he is a top 5-7 WR.

The Pats are not a great running team and are built to pass protect not run block.They currently rank 9th in attempts (which you think would be a good thing) but rank 15th in rushing yards and 19th in ypc (both not good things given the amount they've been running the ball).Teams will look to take out their biggest weapon . . . which clearly is Moss.I would think Moss having a big week will be the exception instead of the rule.

Would love to hear why David and Joe think otherwise. Have you asked them about it?Oddly though, Moss was listed as a "Downgrade" in Joe's email, yet is still ranked #1 going forward.

The Top 200 is basically Dodds' opinion (maybe with some input from a couple others), but it's not the entire staff's opinion. So I can't speak for Dodds.

 

[SleeperPix]

Yudkin,

How do you project him for the rest of the year?

 

[David Yudkin]

From the Boston Globe

Patriots coach Bill Belichick acknowledged that the Jets spent a lot of time doubling wide receiver Randy Moss. "They rolled over the top of Randy almost the whole game, other than a few plays, and one of those plays was when Matt threw down there to Randy," said Belichick. "When they gave us the opportunity to do that, we tried to get the ball down the field and we had a good chance on that one. When they don't, I don't think you want to be lobbing the ball down there to Kerry Rhodes when he is roaming back in the deep part of the field. We have seen that before and those plays don't usually end up the way you want them to." . . .

That's pretty much what I see as the problem for Moss. If they double team him, the Pats will tell Cassel no to throw into double coverage. For Brady, he didn't care and it often didn't matter.

 

[R Dizzle]

So if someone had to rank them Fantasy wise from here on out, how would it look?

My list (in order):

Marshall

Owens

AJ

Wayne

Calvin

Boldin

Fitz

Moss

Plax

Braylon

Smith

Jennings

S.Moss

 

[FUBAR]

This is redraft, but what do you all think for dynasty?

I might be trading him for a couple young, but lesser WRs.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

If Moss is half as good as everyone claims he is, he will produce despite double coverage. If NE does not involve him in the game plan often, his attitude will go sour quickly and he will implode. I don't think the Patriots really need or want that, obviously. They had to know all of this when they signed him last year.

 

[Road Warriors]

From the Boston Globe

Patriots coach Bill Belichick acknowledged that the Jets spent a lot of time doubling wide receiver Randy Moss. "They rolled over the top of Randy almost the whole game, other than a few plays, and one of those plays was when Matt threw down there to Randy," said Belichick. "When they gave us the opportunity to do that, we tried to get the ball down the field and we had a good chance on that one. When they don't, I don't think you want to be lobbing the ball down there to Kerry Rhodes when he is roaming back in the deep part of the field. We have seen that before and those plays don't usually end up the way you want them to." . . .

That's pretty much what I see as the problem for Moss. If they double team him, the Pats will tell Cassel no to throw into double coverage. For Brady, he didn't care and it often didn't matter.

All of this bodes well for the Patriots and not so well for Moss. I really like that Cassel was heady enough to recognize the double coverage and avoid it, while moving the team reasonably well. On this one game sample, he appears to not get rattled easily and so far has made conservative decisions with the ball. I'd like to see what he can do with the jump ball fade or back shoulder to Moss from close in. NE will need to improve their TD : FG ratio from last week, and taking advantage of Moss's ability in the endzone to make a play for you might be one answer.

 

[Johnny Ice]

Moss is the best player on that team right now. Belichick will figure out a way to get him the ball.I suspect Moss may have a game or two like last week. But NE is going to be successful running the ball. Eventually Moss will not be getting coverage rolled toward him.He's not going to be what he was last year, but I still think he is a top 5-7 WR.

The Pats are not a great running team and are built to pass protect not run block.They currently rank 9th in attempts (which you think would be a good thing) but rank 15th in rushing yards and 19th in ypc (both not good things given the amount they've been running the ball).Teams will look to take out their biggest weapon . . . which clearly is Moss.I would think Moss having a big week will be the exception instead of the rule.

So you are basically saying Moss will finish the season with about 850 yds and 6-7 TDs.

 

[FUBAR]

If Moss is half as good as everyone claims he is, he will produce despite double coverage. If NE does not involve him in the game plan often, his attitude will go sour quickly and he will implode. I don't think the Patriots really need or want that, obviously. They had to know all of this when they signed him last year.

Sure, Moss can handle double coverage, but can Cassel get him the ball into a small window?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

From the Boston Globe

Patriots coach Bill Belichick acknowledged that the Jets spent a lot of time doubling wide receiver Randy Moss. "They rolled over the top of Randy almost the whole game, other than a few plays, and one of those plays was when Matt threw down there to Randy," said Belichick. "When they gave us the opportunity to do that, we tried to get the ball down the field and we had a good chance on that one. When they don't, I don't think you want to be lobbing the ball down there to Kerry Rhodes when he is roaming back in the deep part of the field. We have seen that before and those plays don't usually end up the way you want them to." . . .

That's pretty much what I see as the problem for Moss. If they double team him, the Pats will tell Cassel no to throw into double coverage. For Brady, he didn't care and it often didn't matter.

What's interesting to me, if you restrict your attention to QBs who do not suffer from noodle arm, is the question of how much accuracy is required on the deep ball. Two memorable plays from last year were (a) Moss beating a Jets TRIPLE team, and (b) Moss catching the ball in the end zone trapping the ball between his body and his right elbow. It seems to me you are taking a calculated risk when you throw the longball into double coverage deep down the field, and that the primary variable there is the receiver's skill versus the thrower's "accuracy" on a 50 yard pass. If you accept that premise, there are a couple logical questions this raises:1. Is there any concern about noodle arm? From what I've read, there isn't.2. What is the real state of affairs with Moss's lingering back problems?3. Subtrifuge by Belichick, who plans an aerial assault on Miami?4. Covering up some other issue, like needing time for pass-protection to gel this season?Conversely, if you accept the premise that the Pats would RATHER win 19-10 than take the risk of Cassel throwing deep (versus Brady throwing deep), don't you have to say that the incremental ability of Brady to throw deep accurately is unbelieveably higher than Cassel's ability to do same? OR...do you conclude that BB has so much more confidence in the 2008 defense and run games versus the 2007 defense and run games that the risk balance on aerial assault has radically shifted? Either explanation smells funny to me...

 

[Road Warriors]

If Moss is half as good as everyone claims he is, he will produce despite double coverage. If NE does not involve him in the game plan often, his attitude will go sour quickly and he will implode. I don't think the Patriots really need or want that, obviously. They had to know all of this when they signed him last year.

I have to disagree. It appears that the Patriots are looking to take a conservative approach, and if Cassel is reading double, he'll come off Moss to another option. You can't be productive if the QB doesn't throw the ball to you. I think Moss can often beat a double, which he has shown throughout his career, and showed a lot of last year. But the QB has to have the accuracy and confidence to throw into the double to allow him to make a play, and while Brady certainly had those traits ( as well as enough legacy to not worry about a bad outcome ), Cassel doesn't. He may have the accuracy ( to be seen ) but he does not have the confidence at this point to make the tough throw into double coverage. He may get there, but I think safe and conservative are what we'll see for a while.

 

[David Yudkin]

From the Boston Globe

Patriots coach Bill Belichick acknowledged that the Jets spent a lot of time doubling wide receiver Randy Moss. "They rolled over the top of Randy almost the whole game, other than a few plays, and one of those plays was when Matt threw down there to Randy," said Belichick. "When they gave us the opportunity to do that, we tried to get the ball down the field and we had a good chance on that one. When they don't, I don't think you want to be lobbing the ball down there to Kerry Rhodes when he is roaming back in the deep part of the field. We have seen that before and those plays don't usually end up the way you want them to." . . .

That's pretty much what I see as the problem for Moss. If they double team him, the Pats will tell Cassel no to throw into double coverage. For Brady, he didn't care and it often didn't matter.

What's interesting to me, if you restrict your attention to QBs who do not suffer from noodle arm, is the question of how much accuracy is required on the deep ball. Two memorable plays from last year were (a) Moss beating a Jets TRIPLE team, and (b) Moss catching the ball in the end zone trapping the ball between his body and his right elbow. It seems to me you are taking a calculated risk when you throw the longball into double coverage deep down the field, and that the primary variable there is the receiver's skill versus the thrower's "accuracy" on a 50 yard pass. If you accept that premise, there are a couple logical questions this raises:1. Is there any concern about noodle arm? From what I've read, there isn't.2. What is the real state of affairs with Moss's lingering back problems?3. Subtrifuge by Belichick, who plans an aerial assault on Miami?4. Covering up some other issue, like needing time for pass-protection to gel this season?Conversely, if you accept the premise that the Pats would RATHER win 19-10 than take the risk of Cassel throwing deep (versus Brady throwing deep), don't you have to say that the incremental ability of Brady to throw deep accurately is unbelieveably higher than Cassel's ability to do same? OR...do you conclude that BB has so much more confidence in the 2008 defense and run games versus the 2007 defense and run games that the risk balance on aerial assault has radically shifted? Either explanation smells funny to me...

People are making this way more complicated than it needs to be.Cassel will be tasked to not turn the ball over. PERIOD. If that means 3 and outs and a lot of punts, then they will punt the ball. If that means getting into field goal range and taking the 3 points, so be it.They won't want him to have a lot of risky plays, so IMO they will get him to throw the short passes, the WR screens, the Welker underneath routes, and WHATEVER ROUTES DO NOT PUT THE BALL IN HARM'S WAY. If throwing a bomb would result in a big gain or an overthrow (so no interception), that should be fair game. Throwing it across the middle into triple coverage where a tipped pass has a good chance of getting picked probably won't happen much.The play against the Chiefs to Moss in the end zone would be the perfecet example. Either Moss caught it or the ball would go through the end zone. Those are the types of plays I envision the team running. I also think fades in the corner of the end zone to Moss will be fair game, but throwing it into a crowd will be a dicey proposition (at least initially).As I said earlier, a lot will depend on how well the defense does. If the defense is giving up points left and right, they will have no choice but to open up the offense. Clearly if the defense is on track to give up 35 points in a given game they will not scheme to get 4 FG and a single TD on offense.We'll see how far the Pats get with the mantra of asking Cassel not to lose the game vs. asking Cassel to win the game, as the two have very different production outcomes.

 

[CaptainHook]

It's obviously a lot easier to call for risky throws when you know your offense can easily make up the points later. Can't see them throwing into triple coverage too often this year...

He should be a decent #1WR if everything goes well. There's also the distinct possibility of him returning to his Oakland #'s. Cassell sucks and I don't have anything close to the high hopes for the patriots that most people seem to.

I tried trading for him before the season started thank god I got denied.