Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Whats the best draft slot/position? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Annyong
- Start date
gethugefast1
Footballguy
IMO, 1st position is always the best. 
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
The best position in the draft?
Mine. Because I'm the one drafting there. And I make it that way.
Mine. Because I'm the one drafting there. And I make it that way.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I really like the 1.04 or 1.05 spot this year and will try to trade down if I get 1.01 to 1.03.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
3rd to 4th seems like the best value this year.
Yeah, either 1.03-1.05 or 1.08.10
The first allows you to get one of Charles, McCoy, ADP, Martin or Foster and still get a good RB2 in the 2nd round and a top WR/Gronk in the 3rd.
The second allows you to get one of the Rice, TRich, Spiller, SJax tier of RBs and then pair them with a Forte, CJ2K or an elite WR/Graham.
I don't like drafts from the 1 spot, as I don't think having the top RB is that much of an advantage over the 4th or 5th RB, and then things start to look a little ropey at RB by the time it gets back round to you at the 2/3 turn.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
The higher the better, always.
Unless you do Banzai Method.
Unless you do Banzai Method.
chickensoup
Footballguy
Historically the higher positions in the draft win leagues at a higher percentage. This is because fantasy football is top heavy on RB talent. To me, ideally you look at how many RB you believe to be top tier (for me it's 4. Peterson, Foster, Charles, Martin) and that's the pick you want. I'm decently confident, outside of injury, these guys are within 15 points of each other as top 5 guys.
I want later because those guys are so close on my board that I don't care which I get. The later you go, the higher chance at an elite WR or high upside RB2 (Chris Johnson) in the second round. Plus I hate the turn on either end
I want later because those guys are so close on my board that I don't care which I get. The later you go, the higher chance at an elite WR or high upside RB2 (Chris Johnson) in the second round. Plus I hate the turn on either end
4th is very good. I have two of those. I, like many people, have four RB's in my elite tier at the top (Peterson, Martin, Charles, Foster). With the 4th pick I'm guaranteed one of them.
But I wouldn't mind having a later pick either. There are 9-10 extremely solid RB selections + Calvin, so it's not like you have 'scraps' left, and you get your pick of everybody else in round 2 that way.
But I wouldn't mind having a later pick either. There are 9-10 extremely solid RB selections + Calvin, so it's not like you have 'scraps' left, and you get your pick of everybody else in round 2 that way.
I don't know how anyone can say anything but the 1.01 in a 2-RB required league. Every projection site has AP in a tier by himself as far as total points expected.... so that makes him incredibly valuable according to VBD. Drafting strictly by VBD there's almost a 7% swing in expected points scored in positional advantage from the 1st to the 12th pick. The expected point total drops to a few percentage points for the remainder of the positions. My analysis on many different league formats all come back to the same thing - if AP finishes #1 RB again the 1.01 has a massive advantage.
Last edited by a moderator:
Personally I would wager on Peterson not finishing as RB1. I'd put my money on 'the field'. Sure, if I had the number 1 pick, I'd take Peterson. But I have no problem with Charles or Martin or Foster three picks later, and then going three picks earlier in round 2.
chickensoup
Footballguy
While I agree with you, it's all about personal rankings. I personally put the top 4 within 1 point of each other by weekly average. I think Peterson is the top dog, but I think the RB depth that gets to you at the 2/3 turn has far less upside this year since so few RB are falling. There's just a higher chance at a Chris Johnson type at the 4 which is a perfect compliment to a top 4 RB IMO.
Because I don't think that AP is in a tier by himself.
He may well finish as RB1 overall, but I believe that the other players in my top tier (Charles, Martin, McCoy & Foster) are just as likely to finish there as well, and picking one of them at the 3rd/4th/5th spots means that the RBs making it back are better options than what you're left with at the 2/3 turn.
Last edited by a moderator:
Exactly.
I am crossing my fingers hardcore to pull off Doug Martin/Chris Johnson with 1.4/2.9 in a 12 man league. Though I'll take any of the top four to start...but CJ?K is the guy I want late second. If he isn't there the decision gets much more complicated. For me.
Last edited by a moderator:
That's not the point. Of course it's more likely the field finishes ahead of him, but he's by far the MOST likely to finish #1, in both PPR and non-PPR. I think he's more the favorite for the #1 spot this year than any other RB in the past 5 years was to finish #1. That's really significant.
Also want to note that the 1.11-1.12 is a wasteland this year in many formats (less so in non-PPR because guys like Morris/Ridley get a nice boost). You're either reaching on VBD to get a couple of non-elite RBs or having to take WR/TE correctly according to VBD but getting shafted later on your starting RBs. There really aren't good options - either leave value on the table or have no RB depth
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
#1, you get to pick who ever you want.
I'm not so sure of that. But let's say that he is the most likely...I'm not so sure it's enough more likely, or that he would be #1 by enough, to justify going 3 picks later in round 2.
I guess I feel like three picks later in the mid/late second is actually more significant than 1st-4th in round 1.
Really? I can't find a projection site where he's not at least 8% of the points ahead of whomever is listed #2. I think it's pretty consensus he's in a tier by himself. Both him and Calvin.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It depends on your strategy and ranking of players, but in general, first is best. You will get three top 26 players and maybe even better if guys in your league reach at some spots. If guys are taking QBs (which I think we will see in non expert home leagues), you may get three of the top 22 RBs/WRs. Something like ADP/MJD/D.Thomas or ADP/Julio/Graham
No, the #2 slot is second best. My point is the #1 slot is MUCH better than the #2, since it's virtually consensus he will be the highest scoring RB.
The 11/12 slots are the worst - and by a lot.Again, more so in PPR. There's a steep drop after the first 7-9 RBs in PPR. Not so much in non-PPR.
Last edited by a moderator:
But you can't look at it in a vacuum. Yes AP will likely score more than the guy you get at 1.04, but will how much better will the guy I get at 2.08 by than the one you get at 2.12? That range is where I view the drop off happens in RB2 with RB1 upside to the standard RB2, or RB2 with injury worries.
Look, if I end up with the 1.01 pick then I'll take Peterson. But if I can pick my spot, then I'm going for the 1.03 or 1.04 as I like the options on the way back around way better.
By the same token, I'm never going to draft Calvin Johnson is a redraft, because I wouldn't take him in the first 10 picks and I know someone else will. I'm perfectly comfortable not having him, because I can make up for it later. Same with Peterson. If I get him, great, but I'm not worried if I don't.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
The latest I can go and still get a player in what I perceive as my top tier. This year, I anticipate I can get one of my top tier guys at the turn. Possibly two, since my top tier seems to differ from the consensus, which makes me happy.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Personally I think the best spot is 4, since I also believe there are 4 really elite backs (AP, Foster, Charles, Martin) and you get one of them, and you have a shot at an elite receiver or a nice RB2 in the 2nd.
Then 3, then 2, then 1.
After the top 4, I like 10, and going down to 5. 5 is tough due to it's the first spot where you have to make a decision.....do you take Calvin or a RB? And if it's a RB, is it Rice, McCoy, Spiller, Richardson? Any of those 4 RBs could be worthy of the 5th pick. At 10, you know you're getting a good RB or Calvin.....likely one of the RBs in the 2nd tier.
11 and 12 are just brutal this year. I think you have to take a RB in those spots, and Morris, Forte and S Jackson will be decent, but they are below the top 9.
So my order is 4,3,2,1,10,9,8,7,6,5,11,12
Then 3, then 2, then 1.
After the top 4, I like 10, and going down to 5. 5 is tough due to it's the first spot where you have to make a decision.....do you take Calvin or a RB? And if it's a RB, is it Rice, McCoy, Spiller, Richardson? Any of those 4 RBs could be worthy of the 5th pick. At 10, you know you're getting a good RB or Calvin.....likely one of the RBs in the 2nd tier.
11 and 12 are just brutal this year. I think you have to take a RB in those spots, and Morris, Forte and S Jackson will be decent, but they are below the top 9.
So my order is 4,3,2,1,10,9,8,7,6,5,11,12
Ilov80s
Footballguy
What is your top tier? I find it a little crazy that you have so many guys in the same tier as Peterson.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I don't. The guys I do regard similarly, however, don't tend to be the guys everyone is drafting 2,3,4.
I'd be perfectly content with any one of Peterson, Richardson, Charles, Spiller, Forte, or Morris, in that order of preference. I haven't seen any sources that ranked (especially) Forte as high as I have him, so I'm pretty content drafting later rather than earlier and knowing I can get what I perceive to be a huge bargain. Especially true since I rate Lynch, McCoy, and Chris Johnson only a hair below. Obviously won't see Lynch there, but if I get to the turn with a Forte/McCoy or Forte/Chris Johnson, or God help me, any two of my top tier guys, I will be quite thrilled.
I do still rank Peterson #1, but I think he's got enough years behind them that I'm safe calling last year's performance a bit of an outlier, and a return to normalcy should place him right in the ranks of those other guys, IMO. I know it's not a popular opinion, but it's mine, what can I say?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't have ADP at #1 because he ran for 2000 yards last year. I have him #1 because 5 of his 6 years in the league he has finished in the top 3 of RBs. The one exception was a season he only played 12 games due to injury. Even with just 12 games, he was the 8th RB. He has the lowest floor and an incredibly high ceiling. It's that consistency and reliability that I like.I don't. The guys I do regard similarly, however, don't tend to be the guys everyone is drafting 2,3,4.I'd be perfectly content with any one of Peterson, Richardson, Charles, Spiller, Forte, or Morris, in that order of preference. I haven't seen any sources that ranked (especially) Forte as high as I have him, so I'm pretty content drafting later rather than earlier and knowing I can get what I perceive to be a huge bargain. Especially true since I rate Lynch, McCoy, and Chris Johnson only a hair below. Obviously won't see Lynch there, but if I get to the turn with a Forte/McCoy or Forte/Chris Johnson, or God help me, any two of my top tier guys, I will be quite thrilled.
I do still rank Peterson #1, but I think he's got enough years behind them that I'm safe calling last year's performance a bit of an outlier, and a return to normalcy should place him right in the ranks of those other guys, IMO. I know it's not a popular opinion, but it's mine, what can I say?
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I agree with all that regarding Peterson. Seems you can typically pencil him in for 1500-2000 total yards and 13 TD's, and that's enough to make him a stud year in, year out. No argument here.
If he puts that up, I think he'll be comfortably in the discussion for #1 at year's end, but my guess is that he'll have to better those numbers to finish at the top. His consistency is his trump card, and is why I rate him over a few guys who I expect to outpoint him this year. And certainly, he's capable of doing better than those #'s.
What can I say. He's my #1. But he isn't my runaway #1.
If he puts that up, I think he'll be comfortably in the discussion for #1 at year's end, but my guess is that he'll have to better those numbers to finish at the top. His consistency is his trump card, and is why I rate him over a few guys who I expect to outpoint him this year. And certainly, he's capable of doing better than those #'s.
What can I say. He's my #1. But he isn't my runaway #1.
Gustavo Fring
Footballguy
If I have the 1.01 of a PPR draft, I am seriously considering taking Jamaal Charles over ADP. That being said, I would much rather have the 1.02 or 1.03 spot this year in a PPR format, so I would not have to make this decision.
Non-PPR, 1-4 would be ideal, like many others have said. I would take ADP if I had 1.01 in non-PPR, but Jamaal Charles is going to run things in KC this year with Andy Reid at the helms.
Non-PPR, 1-4 would be ideal, like many others have said. I would take ADP if I had 1.01 in non-PPR, but Jamaal Charles is going to run things in KC this year with Andy Reid at the helms.
dwashington
Footballguy
This is our 12 team non-ppr leagues 13th year, and the #1 pick has never won it all.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
chickensoup
Footballguy
Pretty meaningless, overall the top 2 or 3 slots win only like 5 or 6% more often. Fantasy football is mostly about being safe up top and drafting breakout players low. I've won with some horrible looking drafts in the past. Drafting higher just gives a slightly higher probability of winning mostly based off ADP and player projections which are never spot on
Completely agree.
Except I mostly play in leagues with people I know, and regardless of how many sharks there are, somebody will take Rodgers in round 1...maybe even Brees...so I'd put 12th and 11th after 1st in the list, as I'd still get a top 10 player there
I'd love to see real data on this that excludes your typical religious ADP drafters. Is there data for FFPC teams?
This year, I like 3-10. I hate 1-2 and 11-12. My best teams so far have been from the 6-7 spot; I don't feel like I'm leaving anything on the board when I take Calvin.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
I guess it all depends on scoring system. In ours, the smart move is to take one of the top qbs - but most people still go after rbs. If I had 1 or 2 I would go qb. I think 3-5 is better because then I have more options and have and advantage on the turnaround in round 8 when we can pick ANY position. Our first seven rounds require a pick from each of the 7 positions - so you can't start doubling up on rbs until round 8.
If I got 1 or 2 I might swing a deal with the 4 or 5 if they sweetened the pot a little.
If I got 1 or 2 I might swing a deal with the 4 or 5 if they sweetened the pot a little.
It sounds like you have a very screwed up, very one-of-a-kind league with rules that don't have anything to do with, well, probably anybody else on this site.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I've seen this mentioned here a couple times. Is there a big data set out there that people are using to get this 5 or 6% higher number? If so, could someone steer me toward it? Also, is that across all kinds of leagues, or some specific site's? Wondering if there's any correlation between even and odd numbered rounds, where in the one instance, a player drafting early starts first, and finishes first, whereas in the other, he starts first, but picks (his kicker or defense or mr. irrelevant) last...
chickensoup
Footballguy
http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman2/publish/Lab_Test_Snake_Draft.htm
That's the one that sticks out to me, it's based off ADP and yearly projections. I can't remember where the 5% comes from, I can do more digging but I remember something about it somewhere.
That's the one that sticks out to me, it's based off ADP and yearly projections. I can't remember where the 5% comes from, I can do more digging but I remember something about it somewhere.
Wait...that is based on PROJECTIONS, not actual performance outcomes?
And it's based on simulated drafts, not actual drafts or leagues?
I agree with most people that having the 1st pick or at least a top 4 pick would be ideal. If you are not in the top 4 I would just like to be in the top 9 for a 12-team PPR draft. I think there are 8 really solid RBs and Megatron to pick from. IMO, there is a pretty significant drop-off after that where most picks feels like reaches in the first round.
I would obviously like to get Adrian Peterson, but I would be pretty happy with any of these top 9 players to start my draft.
1 Adrian Peterson
2 Jamaal Charles
3 Doug Martin
4 Arian Foster
5 Calvin Johnson
6 C.J. Spiller
7 LeSean McCoy
8 Ray Rice
9 Trent Richardson
I would obviously like to get Adrian Peterson, but I would be pretty happy with any of these top 9 players to start my draft.
1 Adrian Peterson
2 Jamaal Charles
3 Doug Martin
4 Arian Foster
5 Calvin Johnson
6 C.J. Spiller
7 LeSean McCoy
8 Ray Rice
9 Trent Richardson
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Someone at WCOFF did a report at one time (spanning several years and thousands of leagues) and concluded that 75% of all the league champions came from 33% of the draft slots 1-2-3-4. With higher being better.
Last edited by a moderator:
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Here....
chickensoup
Footballguy
The 5-6% comes from elsewhere. I'll try to find it when I'm home not on my phone.
This was really an article trying to justify something other than traditional snake for non auctions.
Regardless of that, the article basically means this. After you make your own projections and draft order, it's crazy to not take 1.01 in every draft because its the position that inherits the most value (RB1) in a VBD method of drafts. Even using outside sources of rankings inherently goes towards VBD, though not strictly so.
Intuitively it makes some sense. drafts normally have the first 5 guys that are simply better for FF than any other position more consistantly. If at the end of the year people told you AP was the best RB, what is your reaction? Of course he is! But if Charles or Martin takes it, we kinda shrug and say, it kinda makes sense. It's because while projections are normally off, outside of injury the top guys (specifically RB) have very few faults to their game .
If Alfred Morris comes out as the number 1 RB, I'll be stunned. I'll also probably have pretty close to the same top 4 RB next year because he can't sustain that. The top guys are just consistantly good.
