When does filling a matchup need override keeping a flyer (1 Viewer)

[Breesisdaman]

I guess this would be a case by case scenario and would depend on how badly you needed the win based on your record and how strongly you felt about the "flyer" on your bench. I am in a league with a very small bench and have a pretty low waiver wire order so far. I have made due by jumping on guys before they broke out like Ben Tate and Fred Davis and Dexter McCluster. Now I am facing someone who at least on the surface appears headed for a win over my team this weekend. I am facing the decision of cutting a McCluster because my defense is facing a juggernaut offense and isnt a recommended start. I am not sure if I can do it though because I feel McCluster could help me down the line and might be more important than a single victory. So thats it, stick it out and grin and bear it and live to fight another day. I wonder what tough roster decisions you guys have had in this short season of numerous injuries. Did you play for the long haul and keep the unknown with potential or did you adjust your roster for the weeks game and take a chance at someone else snagging the free agent you cut loose off waivers? How did you arrive at the decision? Do you have a philosophy or just go with your gut?

 

[thatguy]

This is actually a very good topic. I was dealing with the same issue this week with the Bears D going against Green Bay. I had Ronnie Brown stashed, knowing that if McCoy were to get hurt, he would become a solid play. At 1-1, and with a divisional game in a very tough division (has 4 of 5 highest scoring teams through 2 weeks), I decided that a win this week would far outweigh the potential value that Ronnie might yield later in the season. Thus, I dropped Ronnie for Dallas D. I think this is also heavily dependent on your depth at the position of your flier, though. I have solid RB depth already, with Rice, Best, Tate, McGahee/Moreno (start 2 RBs), so I wasn't really banking on Ronnie ever gaining value to begin with.

 

[Run It Up]

A lot of factors - ultimately if its gonna be the make or break for that week ill do it everytime.

Not sure who your defense is or who is available on the wire but the way I look at it is every win counts.

Nothing is guaranteed,im low on mccluster but thats beside the point, he may or may not help you down the road - if a defense is guaranteed to hurt you you are better off picking up another one, im assuming you have the Bears D (?) and do no wish to drop them, whoever it is if you think that mcclusters breakout potential is worth a roster spot I suggest you drop whomever your D is and deal with playing the Wire for your defense for the rest of the year.

Also, if it is the bears D I wouldnt worry, pack are gonna be 2-1.

 

[Snickers]

I would much rather dump a defense than a position player with upside, especially so early in the season.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Well I was trying to avoid making this thread about my team in particular and thats why I didn't mention the defense. You are spot on with your guess and no I can not cut the bears for a one week wonder defense. Frankly the Pac being 2-1 is the least of my worries but actually I hope the bears do beat the pack so my Saints can pull back up in the home field advantage race. But for fantasy the outcome of the the game is meaningless as long as the Packers don't run up the score on the Bears defense and I take negative points at the position. I am sure I am going to face decisions like this again and was curious about folks decision processes more than my individual situation for this one particular week. Thanks to those who are chiming in. Good information so far.

 

[The Rook]

Without knowing your scoring system, I don't think I'd ever drop a flyer for a one week matchup, particulary a defense. Weekly matchups are so hard to predict, I'd almost characterize it as more of a "flyer" to add for a one week matchup than to take a chance on a long term flyer.... if that makes sense.

 

[Breesisdaman]

Makes sense to me. Opinion noted. My scoring is standard by the way no PPR redraft but how exactly would that information determine your decision?

 

[The Rook]

Makes sense to me. Opinion noted. My scoring is standard by the way no PPR redraft but how exactly would that information determine your decision?

Fair question on my scoring system comment. In hindsight I could take that out of my comment. It originally popped into my head because I was thinking of the fact your defense is part of the decision. In our league defensive scoring is so hard to predict because we don't have scoring based on the yards against or points against. It's all based on sacks, interceptions, fumbles, and special teams scoring (seems much more random). So in my league I wouldn't drop a player of any value for a one week defense matchup.

 

[madd futher]

I would much rather dump a defense than a position player with upside, especially so early in the season.

It is much more advantageous to dump your defense and play waiver-wire match-up defenses weekly agains the bad offenses than it is to dump a nice flex play like McCluster.

 

[thatguy]

I would much rather dump a defense than a position player with upside, especially so early in the season.

It is much more advantageous to dump your defense and play waiver-wire match-up defenses weekly agains the bad offenses than it is to dump a nice flex play like McCluster.

The thing is, though, the Bears defense is so opportunistic that when the Bears play teams with inferior offenses, their defense can literally be the key factor in getting a win--they can rack up sacks and turnovers in a hurry and have a knack for turning turnovers into points (week 1 is the perfect example--they scored 21 points for me and were the key to my win). Playing matchups can work, but a so-so defense against an inferior offense, while it may get you a nice 10 points or so, isn't likely to break out big like the Bears D is capable of any given week. The Bears D is absolutely worth hanging onto and starting most weeks. This is simply one of the weeks where it's best to find another option. I think that potential alone is far more valuable, in most cases, than a flier who's value is purely circumstantial, and such that you could hold him all season without reaping any rewards.Again, though, there are so many factors that come into play when making a decision like this. How solid is your depth at the position of the flier you'd have to drop? How many things would have to happen, or go right, for your flier to become productive, and then, how productive would your flier even be if given the chance to produce? How strong is your opponent's team relative to your own? What is your record? How important is it that you win this week (obviously if you're playing an inter-divisional rival it's far more important than if you're playing someone outside of your division.

 

[thatguy]

One other factor is this: how likely is it that your flier will get picked up by another owner? If it's a guy that you're high on but the general fantasy public doesn't view as highly, you could potentially get him back the following week...

In most competitive leagues, all owners are hamstrung by roster limitations. And, especially in leagues with short benches, most owners aren't likely to have many guys, and perhaps not any, that they are comfortable dropping. Remember, you likely value this flier more than anyone else--that's why he's on your team--just as most other owners likely value their players more than you do. Thus, it makes it more likely that you can get your flier back the following week. And if someone does claim him, it likely means they're dropping a flier of their own, and who's to say you won't like that guy better?

Bottom line: every win counts, and I think in most cases dropping the flier rather than the Bears D is the best move here.

 

[Snickers]

I've found that almost every year in fantasy you will find defenses that were undrafted and yet they finish in the top 10 if not top 5. Your perception of Chicago's D is based on last year and a very small sample this season. I'm not saying they are bad by any stretch but I bet if you look at your league's stats you fill find multiple top 10 defenses on the wire.