You're right about Manning's legacy, and he'll need to win the SB before most people really give him the due I, personally, think he deserves it anyway--win or lose in the SB. I don't downgrade Marino at all for failure to win in the SB, and I wouldn't with Manning either. I felt the same way about Elway before winning his first, and then second, SB; but, I was happy for him that he could shed all the naysayers by winning it all.
When/if Manning wins a Super Bowl (regardless of how he does it), it puts him in a different category. There is no legitmate argument against him as one of the all-time greats if he can lead his team to a title.Style points and stats are nice, but its a net/net result which is what matters.
That being said, I still maintain that, if you were to give me the choice of either of these two to start a team, I would pick Manning and Marino in my top-5, right along side two quarterbacks who have won THREE Super Bowls (Montana, Brady) as well as Elway. But, because I don't see a direct, linear relationship between QB greatness and SB outcomes, I can look at the overwhelming data in other areas that Manning and Marino have clearly established and judge them accordingly.
This is a whole different debate, and I know this will open up the flood gates, but I would not include Marino in my top five. Quick release and strong arm? Absolutely. Yet he was in some ways a sitting duck in the pocket. He lacked the mobility and elusiveness that Montana, Elway, Favre, Young and even Brady possess to get out of trouble. Marino had a great reputation for not getting sacked, but I do believe he lacked an aspect required by the position to threaten the defense with his legs. If a defense knows the QB can't hurt them in any other way than with his arm, that QB is one that is easier to defend than one who can beat you multiple ways. IMO, this is partially why Marino never won it all. I have seen Manning run on occasion, he doesn't do it a ton, but he can make plays when he must. I'd put Manning ahead of Marino for this reason.
For his legacy, and just for the sake of having everyone calibrate their opinions of him to where (I think) they should be, I hope Manning wins "the big one."
Amen.