When Jay Cutler gets the starting job, what will his FF value be? (1 Viewer)

[gbill2004]

When (not if) Jay Cutler gets the starting job in Denver, what kind of fantasy numbers will he put up? What can be expected? He's got one of the best running games in the league in Denver, and two star WRs so that should translate into some good FF stats, right?

Will he be a fantasy starter?? A really good backup? What can we expect when he takes over as early as next week?

 

[CHEF]

I dont know what to expect. But, it has got to be better than what Plummer has done the last 2 weeks. I picked up Cutler after week one. Its amazing how horrible Plummer has played. I guess Gary Kubiak made that much of a difference.

 

[moleculo]

When (not if) Jay Cutler gets the starting job in Denver, what kind of fantasy numbers will he put up? What can be expected? He's got one of the best running games in the league in Denver, and two star WRs so that should translate into some good FF stats, right? Will he be a fantasy starter?? A really good backup? What can we expect when he takes over as early as next week?

Cutlers value in redraft, 2006 can be described by a simple mathmatical equation: (Jay Cutler's jersey number - John Elways jersey number)^(1/2)for the mathmatically impared, (6-7)^(1/2) = imaginary.

 

[gocats]

Actually Sqrt(7-6) = 1

You mean sqrt(6-7)=sqrt(-1) = imaginary

 

[moleculo]

Actually Sqrt(7-6) = 1 You mean sqrt(6-7)=sqrt(-1) = imaginary

fixed.

 

[SSOG]

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/nfl/...5003552,00.html

Shanahan to all those calling for Cutler: Stop it

By Associated Press

September 18, 2006

Mike Shanahan said Monday there’s no way he’s turning the offense over to rookie Jay Cutler even though the coach "dialed down" his offense in Denver’s 9-6 overtime win against Kansas City on Sunday after Plummer’s four-turnover performance the week before.

Plummer was flustered over his handoff-heavy afternoon, but another pedestrian game left him little room to complain about getting reined in. Twice he got the Broncos inside the 5-yard line only to come away empty. He also threw his fourth interception after throwing seven all last season.

Frustrated fans, however, can holler for Cutler, the first-round draft pick from Vanderbilt. Shanahan is sticking by his 10-year veteran who is coming off a career year and is 34-15 as his starter.

Shanahan said he wouldn’t even entertain thoughts of giving Cutler a series here and there.

"No. Same thing happened last year and it is going to happen (again)," Shanahan said of the fans’ love affair with backup quarterbacks. "It happened when John Elway was here, it happened when I was in San Francisco with Joe Montana and Steve Young. This is football and it is great. It is great for talk radio. It is great for TV.

"But Jake has won a lot of games and just because we start out a little slow, like we did last year, doesn’t mean it is the end of the world."

Shanahan said it’s always easy to blame the man under center but it’s usually misdirected criticism.

"Everyone looks at the quarterback and thinks it is totally his fault and that is never true. You have to put a lot of that responsibility on the coaches and the supporting cast," Shanahan said. "People forget very quickly about the tough games that John Elway had here. It is just the nature of the profession."

Shanahan noted that Plummer started slowly last year, too, and had to rely on the defense to salvage a win in Week 2, just like he did this year. Plummer then went eight games without an interception, igniting the Broncos to a 13-3 record and an appearance in the AFC title game.

"Hopefully he plays like he did last season," Shanahan said.

But Plummer didn’t wait until Week 3 this time. After Denver won the coin flip, he moved the Broncos 63 yards to set up Jason Elam’s game-winner five minutes into overtime.

Shanahan put Plummer in the shotgun formation twice on the winning drive "just to give him a little more time to see downfield" and it resulted in a 14-yard completion to David Kircus and a 24-yarder to Javon Walker.

Maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising the Broncos are sputtering on offense with longtime coordinator Gary Kubiak now coaching in Houston. But Shanahan said he’s not so sure there’s an adjustment period going on.

"Since I’m involved with that, it’s the same thing as before," Shanahan said. "It’s always tough to lose coaches, especially great coaches like Gary. But I think Mike (Heimerdinger) has done a great job. I’m still involved. Rick Dennison, our offensive line coach, is here. Bobby Turner is here."

Plummer is as stumped as his coach is over the slow start.

"I don’t have any answers yet," he said. "We have too much talent to struggle like that. The way our defense is playing, we are going to be tough to beat if we get it going offensively."

The Broncos have scored just one touchdown, but that’s one more than they’ve allowed, and safety John Lynch said he’s certain the offense will return to its high-octane power soon enough.

"Historically, we’ve been one of the top offenses in the league," Lynch said. "It’s going to come together. For whatever reason, they’re struggling, but they’ll get it going. There’s big-time talent. I think we’re better talent-wise than we were last year."

Lynch said the defense is prepared to carry the load for however long it takes for Plummer to get the offense going again, "and when we click on all cylinders, we can be an explosive team."

The offense did get some good news Monday when doctors said Rod Smith’s concussion, his third head injury in a year, didn’t appear serious, meaning he might play Sunday at New England.

 

[videoguy505]

I think he could really be a lot worse than Plummer. Guys with no NFL experience thrown right into the mix--he could look like Vince Young out there... making bad decisions and not up to speed. As bad as Plummer's been I'd start him ahead of Vince Young if I had to.

 

[thatguy]

When Cutler gets the starting job, a year or two down the road, I think you can expect him to put up numbers similar to what we'll see from Phillip Rivers this season.

Keep in mind that while the Broncos do have two very solid WRs right now, that's may not be the case when Cutler does take the reigns. Rod could very easily be gone, and if not, he'll be another year or two older. Let's hope Brandon Marshall can live up to the offseason hype and fill Rod's shoes respectably.

I think you can expect Cutler to become a very solid fantasy force sometime in his second season.

 

[The Shizzle]

It all depends on how healthy Brandon Marshall is in 2007. Cutler ain't starting in 2007 unless Jake is hurt.

 

[PMENFAN]

His FF value would be akin to Plummers from last year, on the upside. Downside, what we see from Plummer now. It's really hard to say, because you haven't seen him run the offense w/ the 1's yet. I personally think he'd be an upgrade, if he took over today, but I'm not a huge believer in Plummer.

********************

How do we see Plummer this year? Regardless of what Shanny says, I still say Plummers season last year was a fluke. That said, I think his true ability lies somewhere between what he did last year and how he's playing this year. He's just not a grean NFL QB.

So, if Jake goes into NE and , and we see another poor Plummer performance, and a loss, what happens? I say the status quo remains. This is in NE, but Shanny has had his way w/ the Pats to an extend. Give them this one, and they're 1-2.

Week 4 is a bye, and the Broncs are at 0-3, does Cutler get some reps w/ the 1's? I don't see it. They're stll in the hunt, even at 0-3, because they've only had 1 division game.

Week 5, the Ravens come in, not exactly the team you want to see to cure your offensive woes. REalistically they could be 0-4. And, you have got to start thinking that Cutler is going to show up. But, maybe they're only 1-3.

Week 6, Plummer gets healthy as Oakland doesn't show up, and they go either 2-3 or 1-4.

Week 7 Takes them to Cleveland. Another win. Back to .500, or 2-4. A lot is hanging on that NE game.

Week 8. Indi comes to town. I can't see a win. That's either 4 or 5 losses 7 games in.

That's if Plummer comes out of his funk, and they win against NE this week, which they will have to do. NE will key on shutting down the run, as they did in the playoffs last year, and make Plummer beat them. If Denver goes to 0-3, I could see them at 2-5. Then they go to Pitt, then Oak and SD at home. They could be 3-7 after 10 games. At some point, we have to think we see Cutler if Plummer is still not leading the offense more effectively. At 3-7, you've got to see what the kid can do for the furture. You would likely need to win @KC, SEA, @ SD, @ AZ, CIN, SF to have a chance @ a Wild Card. Just kicking around a scenario where we see Cutler this season. Based on what the Broncos have done the first two weeks, this is a real possibility, looking at their schedule.

This game is big this weekend. They're 0-2, NE is 2-0. NE is going to be primed, because this is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Plummer has something to prove, and looking at the schedule, Denver has to get something going, now. If Plummer lays another egg this week, I think the calls for Cutler get louder, and I think Shannys reason for taking him become clearer in his own head. Plummer is not going to lead you to a championship. Cutler may or may not, but you know Plummer will not.

 

[moleculo]

His FF value would be akin to Plummers from last year, on the upside. Downside, what we see from Plummer now. It's really hard to say, because you haven't seen him run the offense w/ the 1's yet. I personally think he'd be an upgrade, if he took over today, but I'm not a huge believer in Plummer. ********************How do we see Plummer this year? Regardless of what Shanny says, I still say Plummers season last year was a fluke. That said, I think his true ability lies somewhere between what he did last year and how he's playing this year. He's just not a grean NFL QB. So, if Jake goes into NE and , and we see another poor Plummer performance, and a loss, what happens? I say the status quo remains. This is in NE, but Shanny has had his way w/ the Pats to an extend. Give them this one, and they're 1-2. Week 4 is a bye, and the Broncs are at 0-3, does Cutler get some reps w/ the 1's? I don't see it. They're stll in the hunt, even at 0-3, because they've only had 1 division game. Week 5, the Ravens come in, not exactly the team you want to see to cure your offensive woes. REalistically they could be 0-4. And, you have got to start thinking that Cutler is going to show up. But, maybe they're only 1-3. Week 6, Plummer gets healthy as Oakland doesn't show up, and they go either 2-3 or 1-4. Week 7 Takes them to Cleveland. Another win. Back to .500, or 2-4. A lot is hanging on that NE game. Week 8. Indi comes to town. I can't see a win. That's either 4 or 5 losses 7 games in. That's if Plummer comes out of his funk, and they win against NE this week, which they will have to do. NE will key on shutting down the run, as they did in the playoffs last year, and make Plummer beat them. If Denver goes to 0-3, I could see them at 2-5. Then they go to Pitt, then Oak and SD at home. They could be 3-7 after 10 games. At some point, we have to think we see Cutler if Plummer is still not leading the offense more effectively. At 3-7, you've got to see what the kid can do for the furture. You would likely need to win @KC, SEA, @ SD, @ AZ, CIN, SF to have a chance @ a Wild Card. Just kicking around a scenario where we see Cutler this season. Based on what the Broncos have done the first two weeks, this is a real possibility, looking at their schedule. This game is big this weekend. They're 0-2, NE is 2-0. NE is going to be primed, because this is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Plummer has something to prove, and looking at the schedule, Denver has to get something going, now. If Plummer lays another egg this week, I think the calls for Cutler get louder, and I think Shannys reason for taking him become clearer in his own head. Plummer is not going to lead you to a championship. Cutler may or may not, but you know Plummer will not.

Denver beat KC last week and are currently 1-1, not 0-2. how does that affect your thoughts here?

 

[PMENFAN]

His FF value would be akin to Plummers from last year, on the upside. Downside, what we see from Plummer now. It's really hard to say, because you haven't seen him run the offense w/ the 1's yet. I personally think he'd be an upgrade, if he took over today, but I'm not a huge believer in Plummer. ********************How do we see Plummer this year? Regardless of what Shanny says, I still say Plummers season last year was a fluke. That said, I think his true ability lies somewhere between what he did last year and how he's playing this year. He's just not a grean NFL QB. So, if Jake goes into NE and , and we see another poor Plummer performance, and a loss, what happens? I say the status quo remains. This is in NE, but Shanny has had his way w/ the Pats to an extend. Give them this one, and they're 1-2. Week 4 is a bye, and the Broncs are at 0-3, does Cutler get some reps w/ the 1's? I don't see it. They're stll in the hunt, even at 0-3, because they've only had 1 division game. Week 5, the Ravens come in, not exactly the team you want to see to cure your offensive woes. REalistically they could be 0-4. And, you have got to start thinking that Cutler is going to show up. But, maybe they're only 1-3. Week 6, Plummer gets healthy as Oakland doesn't show up, and they go either 2-3 or 1-4. Week 7 Takes them to Cleveland. Another win. Back to .500, or 2-4. A lot is hanging on that NE game. Week 8. Indi comes to town. I can't see a win. That's either 4 or 5 losses 7 games in. That's if Plummer comes out of his funk, and they win against NE this week, which they will have to do. NE will key on shutting down the run, as they did in the playoffs last year, and make Plummer beat them. If Denver goes to 0-3, I could see them at 2-5. Then they go to Pitt, then Oak and SD at home. They could be 3-7 after 10 games. At some point, we have to think we see Cutler if Plummer is still not leading the offense more effectively. At 3-7, you've got to see what the kid can do for the furture. You would likely need to win @KC, SEA, @ SD, @ AZ, CIN, SF to have a chance @ a Wild Card. Just kicking around a scenario where we see Cutler this season. Based on what the Broncos have done the first two weeks, this is a real possibility, looking at their schedule. This game is big this weekend. They're 0-2, NE is 2-0. NE is going to be primed, because this is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Plummer has something to prove, and looking at the schedule, Denver has to get something going, now. If Plummer lays another egg this week, I think the calls for Cutler get louder, and I think Shannys reason for taking him become clearer in his own head. Plummer is not going to lead you to a championship. Cutler may or may not, but you know Plummer will not.

Denver beat KC last week and are currently 1-1, not 0-2. how does that affect your thoughts here?

A lot. Guess I should pay more attention to posting, and less attention to my school? I just think they have a tough schedule, if Plummer stays in the funk.

 

[moleculo]

A lot. Guess I should pay more attention to posting, and less attention to my school? I just think they have a tough schedule, if Plummer stays in the funk.

no doubt, it's a tough road ahead. Of course, Shanahan is aware that it's not a difficult road, and he's not gonna let Jake struggle against some of the best teams in the league, only to let Jay suceed against the juicier part of the schedule (Ari and SF). In the hypothetical scenario that Jake gets the hook, it's gonna be based on poor play and decision making, NOT the W/L record of the team as a whole. Shanahan will not punish Jake because his OL isn't blocking, or the WR's are dropping balls - if that were the case, Jay would struggle even more.

 

[SSOG]

His FF value would be akin to Plummers from last year, on the upside. Downside, what we see from Plummer now. It's really hard to say, because you haven't seen him run the offense w/ the 1's yet. I personally think he'd be an upgrade, if he took over today, but I'm not a huge believer in Plummer. ********************How do we see Plummer this year? Regardless of what Shanny says, I still say Plummers season last year was a fluke. That said, I think his true ability lies somewhere between what he did last year and how he's playing this year. He's just not a grean NFL QB.

I hate all of this talk about how Plummer's season last year was this huge fluke.Three of Plummer's 4 best comp%s have come in his 3 seasons in Denver. 3 of Plummer's 4 best ypa's have come in his 3 seasons in Denver. Plummer's 3 best TD:INT ratios have come in 3 seasons in Denver. While the extraordinarily low number of INTs last season was somewhat flukey, so was the extraordinarily low number of TDs. Personally, I think a strong arguement could be made that his FIRST season was actually his best- he threw 3 INTs in his first game in Denver, and then had a 15:4 TD:INT ratio the rest of the way (would pro-rate to a 24:6.4 TD:Int ratio over a full season, which is a ton better than the 18:7 ratio he put up last year). Either way, there was definitely a precedent for Plummer's performance last year.If you're a believer in DVOA, Plummer has ranked 5th, 12th, and 6th in his three seasons in Denver. That may not sound impressive, but the only other QBs who have finished in the top-12 for all three seasons were Peyton Manning and Trent Green (although Matt Hasselbeck came very close, finishing 13th in one of those seasons).Jake Plummer has consistantly performed like a top-5 QB in Denver- not just last season, but for all three seasons that he was in town. If anything was a fluke, it was Plummer's years in exile in Arizona.

 

[rascal]

Barring injury and a 1-8 start there is no way Cutler starts.

Now is a good time to buy Plummer.

 

[thatguy]

Barring injury and a 1-8 start there is no way Cutler starts.Now is a good time to buy Plummer.

Oh, Cutler WILL start. Just not for a year or two.And, at least for dynasty purposes, it is worth discussing his potential value when that time comes.

 

[rascal]

Barring injury and a 1-8 start there is no way Cutler starts.Now is a good time to buy Plummer.

Oh, Cutler WILL start. Just not for a year or two.And, at least for dynasty purposes, it is worth discussing his potential value when that time comes.

Based on the initial posts it implied this was not talking about dynasty hence my post.

 

[delusional]

His FF value would be akin to Plummers from last year, on the upside. Downside, what we see from Plummer now. It's really hard to say, because you haven't seen him run the offense w/ the 1's yet. I personally think he'd be an upgrade, if he took over today, but I'm not a huge believer in Plummer. ********************How do we see Plummer this year? Regardless of what Shanny says, I still say Plummers season last year was a fluke. That said, I think his true ability lies somewhere between what he did last year and how he's playing this year. He's just not a grean NFL QB. So, if Jake goes into NE and , and we see another poor Plummer performance, and a loss, what happens? I say the status quo remains. This is in NE, but Shanny has had his way w/ the Pats to an extend. Give them this one, and they're 1-2. Week 4 is a bye, and the Broncs are at 0-3, does Cutler get some reps w/ the 1's? I don't see it. They're stll in the hunt, even at 0-3, because they've only had 1 division game. Week 5, the Ravens come in, not exactly the team you want to see to cure your offensive woes. REalistically they could be 0-4. And, you have got to start thinking that Cutler is going to show up. But, maybe they're only 1-3. Week 6, Plummer gets healthy as Oakland doesn't show up, and they go either 2-3 or 1-4. Week 7 Takes them to Cleveland. Another win. Back to .500, or 2-4. A lot is hanging on that NE game. Week 8. Indi comes to town. I can't see a win. That's either 4 or 5 losses 7 games in. That's if Plummer comes out of his funk, and they win against NE this week, which they will have to do. NE will key on shutting down the run, as they did in the playoffs last year, and make Plummer beat them. If Denver goes to 0-3, I could see them at 2-5. Then they go to Pitt, then Oak and SD at home. They could be 3-7 after 10 games. At some point, we have to think we see Cutler if Plummer is still not leading the offense more effectively. At 3-7, you've got to see what the kid can do for the furture. You would likely need to win @KC, SEA, @ SD, @ AZ, CIN, SF to have a chance @ a Wild Card. Just kicking around a scenario where we see Cutler this season. Based on what the Broncos have done the first two weeks, this is a real possibility, looking at their schedule. This game is big this weekend. They're 0-2, NE is 2-0. NE is going to be primed, because this is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Plummer has something to prove, and looking at the schedule, Denver has to get something going, now. If Plummer lays another egg this week, I think the calls for Cutler get louder, and I think Shannys reason for taking him become clearer in his own head. Plummer is not going to lead you to a championship. Cutler may or may not, but you know Plummer will not.

Denver beat KC last week and are currently 1-1, not 0-2. how does that affect your thoughts here?

They played like they were 0-2

 

[-OZ-]

Barring injury and a 1-8 start there is no way Cutler starts.Now is a good time to buy Plummer.

Oh, Cutler WILL start. Just not for a year or two.And, at least for dynasty purposes, it is worth discussing his potential value when that time comes.

Based on the initial posts it implied this was not talking about dynasty hence my post.

He asked when, which doesn't imply anything other than he eventually will start. Irregardlessly, to answer the question asked, he has one thing many young QBs lack, a proven go-to WR. Walker will be back to full health (hopefully) by that time, and while Rod will probably be gone, Marshall, Scheffler and a few others will provide enough tools to make the passing game work.Not top 5, but probably starting caliber in most leagues. Somewhere around Byron Leftwich last year, except with a younger #1 WR.

 

[SSOG]

Barring injury and a 1-8 start there is no way Cutler starts.Now is a good time to buy Plummer.

Oh, Cutler WILL start. Just not for a year or two.And, at least for dynasty purposes, it is worth discussing his potential value when that time comes.

Maybe, but this thread was clearly designed to discuss Cutler's value THIS SEASON. Cutler's value this season is pretty easy to describe using the following quotes:

Shanahan to all those calling for Cutler: Stop it... Mike Shanahan said Monday there’s no way he’s turning the offense over to rookie Jay Cutler... Shanahan said he wouldn’t even entertain thoughts of giving Cutler a series here and there

Hopefully that will put a stop to all of this "Cutler in Redraft" speculation for a while.