Snorkelson
Footballguy
I couldn't find a thread discussing this but if there is one give it a bump. Player values rise and fall, sometimes dramatically during the course of the offseason. Some stay put, but if you peruse some threads (dyno trades in feb-March) you'll find that some players whose situation has stayed the same have carried different values.
Take Rawls for example. Right after the season his value was higher than the month before the draft, when talk of drafting a rb in Seattle was being discussed at length. They draft 3 rbs, and now his stock is gradually climbing back up. CJ Anderson was probably a cheaper buy pre-free agency, then was boosted after, then back down after the booker addition. No one was talking about Torrey smith in March, but people are starting to realize he's probably the best wr they have. These situations haven't changed much but the values have.
Then you have guys like obj and Antonio brown. Can their value get any higher? Can they out perform their already monster seasons? While they are dominant forces in ffl, at some point their value perception will take a hit as will their actual production. Team makeup has a lot to do with it but at some point I think their is a "right time" to sell.
The last group I want to touch on is the "upside" group. Guys drafted high can retain their trade value for a couple years, but when it crumbles it happens fast. I've recently had some discussions in the Dgb thread, my feeling being that it's time to get your value before it goes out the window.
It's impossible to predict what will happen, but all of this is able to be leveraged. Any theories on this- I did search and see bracies "qyr" (quality years remaining) thoughts. Does anyone feel there is a good time to be buying low? Some easy ideas like "draft picks gain value before draft, lose value in season" are well known.
Take Rawls for example. Right after the season his value was higher than the month before the draft, when talk of drafting a rb in Seattle was being discussed at length. They draft 3 rbs, and now his stock is gradually climbing back up. CJ Anderson was probably a cheaper buy pre-free agency, then was boosted after, then back down after the booker addition. No one was talking about Torrey smith in March, but people are starting to realize he's probably the best wr they have. These situations haven't changed much but the values have.
Then you have guys like obj and Antonio brown. Can their value get any higher? Can they out perform their already monster seasons? While they are dominant forces in ffl, at some point their value perception will take a hit as will their actual production. Team makeup has a lot to do with it but at some point I think their is a "right time" to sell.
The last group I want to touch on is the "upside" group. Guys drafted high can retain their trade value for a couple years, but when it crumbles it happens fast. I've recently had some discussions in the Dgb thread, my feeling being that it's time to get your value before it goes out the window.
It's impossible to predict what will happen, but all of this is able to be leveraged. Any theories on this- I did search and see bracies "qyr" (quality years remaining) thoughts. Does anyone feel there is a good time to be buying low? Some easy ideas like "draft picks gain value before draft, lose value in season" are well known.