Which highly touted Rookie WR is this years Bust? (1 Viewer)

[az_prof]

Seeing that the Finns want to trade Ginn, who just a few years ago was a top 10 pick in the draft got me wondering this: which of this years highly touted rookie WRs do you project to go in the first round and then fail? Who is the next Ginn, DHB, Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, etc. And why?

The hard part is that presumably the players looks good now or he wouldn't be a top pick, but yet, there must some flaw in his game or you wouldn't project his likely failure.

 

[Yellow Line is Unoffcial]

Dez could very well be the only first round WR this year.

 

[Honda]

List of highly touted rookies?

 

[Kenny Powers]

Probably not the best year for this thread

 

[az_prof]

I thought Benn, Tate, or Thomas were projected somewhere late in the first.

 

[EBF]

There are many reasons why they bust. Usually it's some combination of...

Work Ethic - There are some players who have the talent to succeed, but lack the work ethic and discipline needed to succeed. Charles Rogers and Reggie Williams are great examples. I think they both had the talent to be 1000+ yard receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately, neither of them had the drive. They phoned it in once they got the big money.

Football Skills - Some guys who get picked high just weren't great football players in the first place. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Quincy Morgan, Ted Ginn, Koren Robinson, and Troy Williamson are great examples. None of them are natural receivers. Their production typically hasn't matched their hype (although Morgan had pretty good stats at K State).

Physical Skills - The NFL usually does a pretty good job of filtering out players who don't have the physical skills to thrive. Few of them get picked in the first round, but it does happen. Mike Williams was a first round pick despite a complete lack of burst and quickness. Peter Warrick was a first round pick despite diminutive size and 4.6 speed. Ted Ginn was a first round pick despite a frail frame with poor body proportions.

There are probably only four WRs who have a chance to be first round picks this year (Bryant, Thomas, Tate, and Benn). Do any of them have any of the weaknesses on the above list?

Bryant - Great from a football skills/physical skills standpoint. Work ethic is the only thing that can stop him.

Thomas - Productive with elite physical ability. Should be a success.

Tate - Productive with good workout numbers. Size and hands are concerns, but he ran a 4.3 and dominated in college.

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

I'd say Benn is the biggest enigma of the bunch. I'm a little worried about Tate's tendency to body catch (football skills) and lack of prototypical size (physical skills), but his low 40 time alleviates some of those concerns. Bryant and Thomas appear to be can't-miss players from a skill standpoint. They will only be derailed by work ethic/character issues.

 

[jurb26]

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

This seems like a silly thing to point out when he had over 600 yds in his 2 previous seasons. Not to mention over 1000 in 2008. The guy was injured, A LOT, last year. That seems to be his problem though. He has been injured a lot over his college career.

 

[EBF]

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

This seems like a silly thing to point out when he had over 600 yds in his 2 previous seasons. Not to mention over 1000 in 2008. The guy was injured, A LOT, last year. That seems to be his problem though. He has been injured a lot over his college career.

As a coach once said to me, "Are you hurt or are you injured?"Benn may have been hurt, but he must not have been injured if he played in 12 games. Coming off a mediocre season, he looks like a guy who's being drafted more on the basis of his potential than his production. I'm always a little bit leery of that breed, although I do think his productive 2008 season offers some cause for optimism.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I think it's not that likely but I could see Dez pulling a JeMarcus Russell and be the last one in and first one out once he gets the green.

 

[az_prof]

I think it's not that likely but I could see Dez pulling a JeMarcus Russell and be the last one in and first one out once he gets the green.

Sounds like the main question is his character, and as we know, character can be a very limiting factor. I am not sure how serious the character questions are in his case, however. What do we know?

 

[FavreCo]

If Brandon Lafell is one of the 1st 5 WR's off the board, he's the bust. Not sure why he is consistently shown as a 1st or 2nd rounder.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think it's not that likely but I could see Dez pulling a JeMarcus Russell and be the last one in and first one out once he gets the green.

Sounds like the main question is his character, and as we know, character can be a very limiting factor. I am not sure how serious the character questions are in his case, however. What do we know?

I'm starting to jump on board with this concept. 10 teams saying they have him off their board? Lots of people here comparing him to Randy Moss. Bryant has more red flags than Charles Rogers did coming out. Few positions bust as frequently as 1st round WRs. As EBF points out, there are several factors that can come into play. Bryant shows the most difficult to predict. IMO taking him at 1.01 in rookie drafts is a HUGE risk. Personally, I think you are far better off grabbing Spiller or Bradford. They seem like they have a much greater floor than Bryant, and a year or two from now I think you won't be left holding air. If you really need a WR and you have 1.01 trade it for Crabtree. At least he seems to have the drive to make himself a NFL player. I'm not sold that Bryant does. Don't get me wrong, I'd take Bryant at 1.03 or 1.04, but 1.01 carries more value IMO than a player with Bryants' downside.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Benn

 

[Donnybrook]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

It seems to me that Thomas is one of the most polarizing players - some scouts love him and some hate him. I know when I watched his highlights I came to the conclusion that his QB was horrible. He hardly ever hit him in stride. Thomas would he behind the defender and the ball would be underthrown. He would have to out jump and out muscle the defender for the ball - very little oppertunity to gain yards after the catch. Could this be why there are so many divergent opinions on him?

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I'm not the biggest believer in Benn, but I feel like I should point out that if Dez Bryant had Juice friggin' Williams throwing him the ball everyone would probably be choosing Bryant as the 'bust.'

 

[Blackjacks]

Golden Tate

I think people are thinking Percy Harvin with him and I think they are going to be very disappointed with him

I would also say Lefell but I don't see him going int he first 2 rounds

 

[maxwelledison]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

I completely agree. His physical traits will lead to him being overdrafted in a major way, imo.

 

[EBF]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

To me it's another Percy Harvin situation. You have to look at the raw athletic parts and project what the player will become rather than getting hung up on the minutiae of his technique and college usage. In every draft class there's a small handful of players, maybe four or five, who stand out to such an absurd degree that they never relinquish a high spots in my rankings once they make the initial jump. Thomas is one of those guys this year. I've had him as a top 2 WR in this class for months and nothing short of an amputation will move him down. I disagree with a lot of the knocks on him. I don't think he's stiff. In fact, one of the things that stands out to me about him is how well he moves for a big receiver. Very good body proportions and very smooth. He will be impossible to cover at the next level. Too big, too fast, too strong, and too skilled for 5'10" corners who forfeit 30 pounds to him. Not only do I not think he's overrated, I actually think he's underrated. I think he's going to be a first round pick because I think he's too good to go unappreciated by pro scouts.

 

[Chase Stuart]

There are many reasons why they bust. Usually it's some combination of...Work Ethic - There are some players who have the talent to succeed, but lack the work ethic and discipline needed to succeed. Charles Rogers and Reggie Williams are great examples. I think they both had the talent to be 1000+ yard receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately, neither of them had the drive. They phoned it in once they got the big money. Football Skills - Some guys who get picked high just weren't great football players in the first place. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Quincy Morgan, Ted Ginn, Koren Robinson, and Troy Williamson are great examples. None of them are natural receivers. Their production typically hasn't matched their hype (although Morgan had pretty good stats at K State). Physical Skills - The NFL usually does a pretty good job of filtering out players who don't have the physical skills to thrive. Few of them get picked in the first round, but it does happen. Mike Williams was a first round pick despite a complete lack of burst and quickness. Peter Warrick was a first round pick despite diminutive size and 4.6 speed. Ted Ginn was a first round pick despite a frail frame with poor body proportions. There are probably only four WRs who have a chance to be first round picks this year (Bryant, Thomas, Tate, and Benn). Do any of them have any of the weaknesses on the above list?Bryant - Great from a football skills/physical skills standpoint. Work ethic is the only thing that can stop him.Thomas - Productive with elite physical ability. Should be a success.Tate - Productive with good workout numbers. Size and hands are concerns, but he ran a 4.3 and dominated in college. Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade. I'd say Benn is the biggest enigma of the bunch. I'm a little worried about Tate's tendency to body catch (football skills) and lack of prototypical size (physical skills), but his low 40 time alleviates some of those concerns. Bryant and Thomas appear to be can't-miss players from a skill standpoint. They will only be derailed by work ethic/character issues.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'm not sure if I agree with the application:Bryant - more of an immaturity thing than a work ethic issue. I'm not sure if "bad work ethic" is something you can predict, and even if it was something you could predict, I don't think Bryant has shown any signs of that. I don't see much of a Charles Rogers/Reggie Williams in him, and if anything, he seems to just really want to be in the NFL (hanging out with Sanders, etc.)Thomas -- how can you not question his "football skills"? You talk about Ginn and DHB (I don't think Koren Robinson is a good example -- he was a very good WR for a stretch), but Thomas didn't even play in a "football offense." Like Benn (more on that below) this fault isn't a personal knock on him (it wasn't his choice what type of offense GT ran) but I think it definitely increases his variance. Playing in an offense that calls 20 straight runs and then one deep pass doesn't do a good job of showing us a guy's football skills. He may end up having great football skills, but I think for now, they're a question mark.Tate - I've loved Tate for awhile now. I do think his physical skills could be a question, but I think he's pretty safe.Benn -- sure, his numbers stunk, and yes, that increases his variance. But there are only four words that could shut down a WR more than "Darrelle Revis Nnamdi Asomugha." And they're "Ron Zook Juice Williams." I don't blame Benn for his putrid productivity in 2009, although I think there are other question marks.

 

[awesomeness]

There are many reasons why they bust. Usually it's some combination of...

Work Ethic - There are some players who have the talent to succeed, but lack the work ethic and discipline needed to succeed. Charles Rogers and Reggie Williams are great examples. I think they both had the talent to be 1000+ yard receivers in the NFL. Unfortunately, neither of them had the drive. They phoned it in once they got the big money.

Football Skills - Some guys who get picked high just weren't great football players in the first place. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Quincy Morgan, Ted Ginn, Koren Robinson, and Troy Williamson are great examples. None of them are natural receivers. Their production typically hasn't matched their hype (although Morgan had pretty good stats at K State).

Physical Skills - The NFL usually does a pretty good job of filtering out players who don't have the physical skills to thrive. Few of them get picked in the first round, but it does happen. Mike Williams was a first round pick despite a complete lack of burst and quickness. Peter Warrick was a first round pick despite diminutive size and 4.6 speed. Ted Ginn was a first round pick despite a frail frame with poor body proportions.

There are probably only four WRs who have a chance to be first round picks this year (Bryant, Thomas, Tate, and Benn). Do any of them have any of the weaknesses on the above list?

Bryant - Great from a football skills/physical skills standpoint. Work ethic is the only thing that can stop him.

Thomas - Productive with elite physical ability. Should be a success.

Tate - Productive with good workout numbers. Size and hands are concerns, but he ran a 4.3 and dominated in college.

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

I'd say Benn is the biggest enigma of the bunch. I'm a little worried about Tate's tendency to body catch (football skills) and lack of prototypical size (physical skills), but his low 40 time alleviates some of those concerns. Bryant and Thomas appear to be can't-miss players from a skill standpoint. They will only be derailed by work ethic/character issues.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'm not sure if I agree with the application:Bryant - more of an immaturity thing than a work ethic issue. I'm not sure if "bad work ethic" is something you can predict, and even if it was something you could predict, I don't think Bryant has shown any signs of that. I don't see much of a Charles Rogers/Reggie Williams in him, and if anything, he seems to just really want to be in the NFL (hanging out with Sanders, etc.)

Thomas -- how can you not question his "football skills"? You talk about Ginn and DHB (I don't think Koren Robinson is a good example -- he was a very good WR for a stretch), but Thomas didn't even play in a "football offense." Like Benn (more on that below) this fault isn't a personal knock on him (it wasn't his choice what type of offense GT ran) but I think it definitely increases his variance. Playing in an offense that calls 20 straight runs and then one deep pass doesn't do a good job of showing us a guy's football skills. He may end up having great football skills, but I think for now, they're a question mark.

Tate - I've loved Tate for awhile now. I do think his physical skills could be a question, but I think he's pretty safe.

Benn -- sure, his numbers stunk, and yes, that increases his variance. But there are only four words that could shut down a WR more than "Darrelle Revis Nnamdi Asomugha." And they're "Ron Zook Juice Williams." I don't blame Benn for his putrid productivity in 2009, although I think there are other question marks.

Thomas: I agree with EBF that Thomas has good football skills, at least in certain aspects. Admittedly his current knowledge of NFL route running is more than likely putrid. However in other areas Thomas shines brightly. He does an excellent job of attacking the ball in the air, almost always using his hands to catch the ball. He does a good of contorting his body to make a reception and/or stay in bounds, he consistently wins jump balls, etc. Maybe you don't consider those to be "football skills", but I think that is what EBF is referring to. Thomas doesn't come across as the brightest guy, so it will more than likely take him a while to fully grasp an NFL playbook, but even considering that I think Thomas is a safe pick to have NFL success due to his other football skills.

Tate: I've never understood those who love Tate but questioned his physical skills. Tate is fast and extremely strong for his size. Although he is small, he has a solid core and thick upper legs which allows him to break some hard tackles with ease. Having said this, I think Tate has fewer football skills than Thomas does. Although Tate has more experience with NFL routes, he did a piss poor job of executing those routes. Not only that, but Tate rarely if ever catches the ball with his hands and often traps the ball against his chest. That's one of the biggest flaws an NFL receiving prospect can have imo, and for whatever reason players usually aren't able to break that habit. Although i would think Tate has better hands than previous "basket catchers" seeing as he was also a legit MLB prospect. Tate's elite strength and overall athleticism may allow him to be successful, but i think Tate has a higher bust likelihood than others.

 

[CravenM]

I think any of the QBs could be the next Tim Couch, Brian Griese, or Jamarcus Russell.

I'm not a big fan of Bradford. I think frail and his accuracy and stats earned in college won't translate in the NFL.

Clausen - I'm a fan of but he's never really played in a big time game nor against big time talent

Tebow - I'm his biggest fan but there's obviously a lot of questions.

All the rest: not really sold on any of them.

Who knows. I'm the worst picker of college-to-NFL predictions there is. I thought Philip Rivers and Eli Manning would be terrible and Heath Schuler would do well.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

This seems like a silly thing to point out when he had over 600 yds in his 2 previous seasons. Not to mention over 1000 in 2008. The guy was injured, A LOT, last year. That seems to be his problem though. He has been injured a lot over his college career.

As a coach once said to me, "Are you hurt or are you injured?"Benn may have been hurt, but he must not have been injured if he played in 12 games. Coming off a mediocre season, he looks like a guy who's being drafted more on the basis of his potential than his production. I'm always a little bit leery of that breed, although I do think his productive 2008 season offers some cause for optimism.

He had a high ankle sprain in the first quarter of the first game of the season(vs Missouri...I was at the game). High Ankle sprains linger and effect lots of aspects from a player.....quickness, cutting, speed, etc.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I think any of the QBs could be the next Tim Couch, Brian Griese, or Jamarcus Russell.

I'm not a big fan of Bradshaw. I think frail and his accuracy and stats earned in college won't translate in the NFL.

Clausen - I'm a fan of but he's never really played in a big time game nor against big time talent

Tebow - I'm his biggest fan but there's obviously a lot of questions.

All the rest: not really sold on any of them.

Who knows. I'm the worst picker of college-to-NFL predictions there is. I thought Philip Rivers and Eli Manning would be terrible and Heath Schuler would do well.

Terry Bradshaw is available?

haha

 

[CravenM]

Terry Bradshaw is available?haha

DOH!!

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

I agree with you here Construx. The main part is the burst to get separation. Looking at some of the recent WR busts....that was the problem...Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett, Ginn, JJ Stokes, Reggie Williams, Roy Williams....these guys had other factors as well...such as dedication that we currently can't calculate. But burst is something that is very important for WR's...not sure if Thomas has enough.

 

[identikit]

Terry Bradshaw is available?haha

DOH!!

Not to mention this thread is about WR's not QB's.

 

[CravenM]

Not to mention this thread is about WR's not QB's.

I'll go back to sleep now.

 

[identikit]

Not to mention this thread is about WR's not QB's.

I'll go back to sleep now.

Tomorrow will be a better day, good buddy....

 

[EBF]

Thomas -- how can you not question his "football skills"? You talk about Ginn and DHB (I don't think Koren Robinson is a good example -- he was a very good WR for a stretch), but Thomas didn't even play in a "football offense." Like Benn (more on that below) this fault isn't a personal knock on him (it wasn't his choice what type of offense GT ran) but I think it definitely increases his variance. Playing in an offense that calls 20 straight runs and then one deep pass doesn't do a good job of showing us a guy's football skills. He may end up having great football skills, but I think for now, they're a question mark.

I don't punish players for opportunities they never received. It's not his fault that he didn't play in a pro style offense. That was out of his control. All he could do was make plays when given the opportunity and he did that. 1154 receiving yards in 14 games on just 46 catches. This guy was a beast when they threw him the football. That's all you can hope for.I don't care what kind of offense he played in at Georgia Tech. When I look at a WR/RB prospect, I'm not concerned with what system he ran. I'm only concerned with gauging his abilities and projecting them to the NFL level. What's he capable of? That's what matters to me. A lot of people missed the boat on Harvin last season because they got hung up on his college usage. That's always a mistake. You have to look beyond the system and try to figure out what the player can do at the next level. Harvin was obviously an elite athlete and football player despite the fact that he played in a gimmicky Florida offense that didn't see him running a lot of routes on the outside. Same deal with Thomas. People who talk about the offense he played in are missing the point entirely. He's an elite athlete and he has all the physical tools and football skills to be a standout player on Sundays.

Benn -- sure, his numbers stunk, and yes, that increases his variance. But there are only four words that could shut down a WR more than "Darrelle Revis Nnamdi Asomugha." And they're "Ron Zook Juice Williams." I don't blame Benn for his putrid productivity in 2009, although I think there are other question marks.

The problem with this argument is that he thrived with the same coach/QB in 2008. If they're so bad, why was he able to succeed with them in 2008, but not in 2009? His junior year stats just don't look like what you'd expect from a premium college WR. Of the four WRs I talked about (Bryant, Thomas, Benn, Tate), he's the only one who didn't produce elite statistics in his final full college season. To me that's a little bit of a red flag that suggests he might be more athlete than football player.

 

[jurb26]

Thomas -- how can you not question his "football skills"? You talk about Ginn and DHB (I don't think Koren Robinson is a good example -- he was a very good WR for a stretch), but Thomas didn't even play in a "football offense." Like Benn (more on that below) this fault isn't a personal knock on him (it wasn't his choice what type of offense GT ran) but I think it definitely increases his variance. Playing in an offense that calls 20 straight runs and then one deep pass doesn't do a good job of showing us a guy's football skills. He may end up having great football skills, but I think for now, they're a question mark.

I don't punish players for opportunities they never received. It's not his fault that he didn't play in a pro style offense. That was out of his control. All he could do was make plays when given the opportunity and he did that. 1154 receiving yards in 14 games on just 46 catches. This guy was a beast when they threw him the football. That's all you can hope for.I don't care what kind of offense he played in at Georgia Tech. When I look at a WR/RB prospect, I'm not concerned with what system he ran. I'm only concerned with gauging his abilities and projecting them to the NFL level. What's he capable of? That's what matters to me. A lot of people missed the boat on Harvin last season because they got hung up on his college usage. That's always a mistake. You have to look beyond the system and try to figure out what the player can do at the next level. Harvin was obviously an elite athlete and football player despite the fact that he played in a gimmicky Florida offense that didn't see him running a lot of routes on the outside. Same deal with Thomas. People who talk about the offense he played in are missing the point entirely. He's an elite athlete and he has all the physical tools and football skills to be a standout player on Sundays.

Benn -- sure, his numbers stunk, and yes, that increases his variance. But there are only four words that could shut down a WR more than "Darrelle Revis Nnamdi Asomugha." And they're "Ron Zook Juice Williams." I don't blame Benn for his putrid productivity in 2009, although I think there are other question marks.

The problem with this argument is that he thrived with the same coach/QB in 2008. If they're so bad, why was he able to succeed with them in 2008, but not in 2009? His junior year stats just don't look like what you'd expect from a premium college WR. Of the four WRs I talked about (Bryant, Thomas, Benn, Tate), he's the only one who didn't produce elite statistics in his final full college season. To me that's a little bit of a red flag that suggests he might be more athlete than football player.

It's been pointed out several times in this thread and over the past 4 months in other threads that Benn played with injuries all last season. You seem to want to ignore that because you don't like him. Sure he didn't miss any games (which may be a plus for his toughness) but to simply ignore that there was any effect is just shortsighted. I don't really care if you you are low on Benn, there are certainly valid reason one could be concerned, this one just seems like grasping at straws to me.Benn got a high ankle sprain in the season opener (9/5) on the 3rd play of the game and missed the rest of the game. He had the wind knocked out of him in the PSU (10/3) game and missed the last 4 minutes (not really a big deal). He suffered a concussion in the MSU (10/10) game and missed time (I can't remember how much). Finally, he re injured the ankle in the Michigan (10/31) game and missed time again.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think any of the QBs could be the next Tim Couch, Brian Griese, or Jamarcus Russell.

I'm not a big fan of Bradford. I think frail and his accuracy and stats earned in college won't translate in the NFL.

Clausen - I'm a fan of but he's never really played in a big time game nor against big time talent

Tebow - I'm his biggest fan but there's obviously a lot of questions.

All the rest: not really sold on any of them.

Who knows. I'm the worst picker of college-to-NFL predictions there is. I thought Philip Rivers and Eli Manning would be terrible and Heath Schuler would do well.

Tim Couch busted because of injury, not ability.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

To me it's another Percy Harvin situation. You have to look at the raw athletic parts and project what the player will become rather than getting hung up on the minutiae of his technique and college usage. In every draft class there's a small handful of players, maybe four or five, who stand out to such an absurd degree that they never relinquish a high spots in my rankings once they make the initial jump. Thomas is one of those guys this year. I've had him as a top 2 WR in this class for months and nothing short of an amputation will move him down.

I disagree with a lot of the knocks on him. I don't think he's stiff. In fact, one of the things that stands out to me about him is how well he moves for a big receiver. Very good body proportions and very smooth. He will be impossible to cover at the next level. Too big, too fast, too strong, and too skilled for 5'10" corners who forfeit 30 pounds to him. Not only do I not think he's overrated, I actually think he's underrated. I think he's going to be a first round pick because I think he's too good to go unappreciated by pro scouts.

See, I think you're banking on the Percy Harvin effect too much. I think that lots of times it goes the other way. A player is a great athlete, doesn't show all the skills needed and then doesn't do as well in the NFL. I think you're projecting Harvin's success (for only one year so far remember) onto Thomas. I think it's just as likely that Thomas doesn't succeed like Harvin did. It will be interesting to see him next year, although I agree that he'll go in the first because you can't teach his height and body type.

 

[EBF]

It's been pointed out several times in this thread and over the past 4 months in other threads that Benn played with injuries all last season. You seem to want to ignore that because you don't like him. Sure he didn't miss any games (which may be a plus for his toughness) but to simply ignore that there was any effect is just shortsighted. I don't really care if you you are low on Benn, there are certainly valid reason one could be concerned, this one just seems like grasping at straws to me.Benn got a high ankle sprain in the season opener (9/5) on the 3rd play of the game and missed the rest of the game. He had the wind knocked out of him in the PSU (10/3) game and missed the last 4 minutes (not really a big deal). He suffered a concussion in the MSU (10/10) game and missed time (I can't remember how much). Finally, he re injured the ankle in the Michigan (10/31) game and missed time again.

I don't think it's "grasping at straws" to be concerned that a supposedly elite WR prospect only managed 490 receiving yards in his final collegiate season. That's just not the production you want to see from a future pro.

 

[EBF]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

To me it's another Percy Harvin situation. You have to look at the raw athletic parts and project what the player will become rather than getting hung up on the minutiae of his technique and college usage. In every draft class there's a small handful of players, maybe four or five, who stand out to such an absurd degree that they never relinquish a high spots in my rankings once they make the initial jump. Thomas is one of those guys this year. I've had him as a top 2 WR in this class for months and nothing short of an amputation will move him down.

I disagree with a lot of the knocks on him. I don't think he's stiff. In fact, one of the things that stands out to me about him is how well he moves for a big receiver. Very good body proportions and very smooth. He will be impossible to cover at the next level. Too big, too fast, too strong, and too skilled for 5'10" corners who forfeit 30 pounds to him. Not only do I not think he's overrated, I actually think he's underrated. I think he's going to be a first round pick because I think he's too good to go unappreciated by pro scouts.

See, I think you're banking on the Percy Harvin effect too much. I think that lots of times it goes the other way. A player is a great athlete, doesn't show all the skills needed and then doesn't do as well in the NFL. I think you're projecting Harvin's success (for only one year so far remember) onto Thomas. I think it's just as likely that Thomas doesn't succeed like Harvin did. It will be interesting to see him next year, although I agree that he'll go in the first because you can't teach his height and body type.

I guess we have a different idea of what he's shown so far. To me, he has shown all the skills needed to be successful in the NFL. The only legitimate knock against him is that he didn't run the full route tree in college, but that was entirely out of his control. He's an elite athlete who destroyed his competition last season when given the chance. I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he can learn how to run a square in. Like a lot of receivers, he'll probably take 1-2 years to learn the pro game. Once he picks it up, he should be a high end WR1.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

To me it's another Percy Harvin situation. You have to look at the raw athletic parts and project what the player will become rather than getting hung up on the minutiae of his technique and college usage. In every draft class there's a small handful of players, maybe four or five, who stand out to such an absurd degree that they never relinquish a high spots in my rankings once they make the initial jump. Thomas is one of those guys this year. I've had him as a top 2 WR in this class for months and nothing short of an amputation will move him down.

I disagree with a lot of the knocks on him. I don't think he's stiff. In fact, one of the things that stands out to me about him is how well he moves for a big receiver. Very good body proportions and very smooth. He will be impossible to cover at the next level. Too big, too fast, too strong, and too skilled for 5'10" corners who forfeit 30 pounds to him. Not only do I not think he's overrated, I actually think he's underrated. I think he's going to be a first round pick because I think he's too good to go unappreciated by pro scouts.

See, I think you're banking on the Percy Harvin effect too much. I think that lots of times it goes the other way. A player is a great athlete, doesn't show all the skills needed and then doesn't do as well in the NFL. I think you're projecting Harvin's success (for only one year so far remember) onto Thomas. I think it's just as likely that Thomas doesn't succeed like Harvin did. It will be interesting to see him next year, although I agree that he'll go in the first because you can't teach his height and body type.

I guess we have a different idea of what he's shown so far. To me, he has shown all the skills needed to be successful in the NFL. The only legitimate knock against him is that he didn't run the full route tree in college, but that was entirely out of his control. He's an elite athlete who destroyed his competition last season when given the chance. I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he can learn how to run a square in. Like a lot of receivers, he'll probably take 1-2 years to learn the pro game. Once he picks it up, he should be a high end WR1.

Maybe. Or maybe we're talking about Percy Harvin the way in 10 years the way we talk about Koren Robinson or Peter Warrick now.

 

[Donnybrook]

A king-sized possession receiver and a marginal route runner is how they descibed Brandon Marshall coming out of college as well. So there is some hope for Thomas.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

To me it's another Percy Harvin situation. You have to look at the raw athletic parts and project what the player will become rather than getting hung up on the minutiae of his technique and college usage. In every draft class there's a small handful of players, maybe four or five, who stand out to such an absurd degree that they never relinquish a high spots in my rankings once they make the initial jump. Thomas is one of those guys this year. I've had him as a top 2 WR in this class for months and nothing short of an amputation will move him down.

I disagree with a lot of the knocks on him. I don't think he's stiff. In fact, one of the things that stands out to me about him is how well he moves for a big receiver. Very good body proportions and very smooth. He will be impossible to cover at the next level. Too big, too fast, too strong, and too skilled for 5'10" corners who forfeit 30 pounds to him. Not only do I not think he's overrated, I actually think he's underrated. I think he's going to be a first round pick because I think he's too good to go unappreciated by pro scouts.

See, I think you're banking on the Percy Harvin effect too much. I think that lots of times it goes the other way. A player is a great athlete, doesn't show all the skills needed and then doesn't do as well in the NFL. I think you're projecting Harvin's success (for only one year so far remember) onto Thomas. I think it's just as likely that Thomas doesn't succeed like Harvin did. It will be interesting to see him next year, although I agree that he'll go in the first because you can't teach his height and body type.

I guess we have a different idea of what he's shown so far. To me, he has shown all the skills needed to be successful in the NFL. The only legitimate knock against him is that he didn't run the full route tree in college, but that was entirely out of his control. He's an elite athlete who destroyed his competition last season when given the chance. I don't think it's a stretch to assume that he can learn how to run a square in. Like a lot of receivers, he'll probably take 1-2 years to learn the pro game. Once he picks it up, he should be a high end WR1.

Well, I don't think it's just the route tree, per se. I worry that he will have trouble getting open. I don't think he has the short area quickness to beat press coverage and until he learns to run sharp routes, he'll have to hand fight the DB at the LOS to get by him. Then he'll have to move quickly to stay ahead of the DB but I'm not sure he can. So while he'll be great at jump balls, I just don't think he can make a living in the NFL by running go routes stride for stride with a DB and out jumping that DB for the ball. Plus we're not even counting a safety rolling over, which he didn't see in college because of the offense that Tech ran. Anyway, don't want to derail the thread and I think this is just a guy we disagree on. At least we agree about Mathews.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

A king-sized possession receiver and a marginal route runner is how they descibed Brandon Marshall coming out of college as well. So there is some hope for Thomas.

True, although IIRC Marshall had good short area quickness from being a DB early in his career.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Which highly touted rookie WR? As in, singular?

The jury is still out on the '09 guys, and there were no first round WRs in '08. Here are the 1st round WRs before that:

2007

Ted Ginn

Dwayne Bowe

Robert Meachem

Craig Davis

Anthony Gonzalezs

2006

Santonio Holmes

2005

Braylon Edwards

Troy Williamson

Mike Williams

Matt Jones

Mark Clayton

Roddy White

2004

Larry Fizgerald

Roy Williams

Reggie Williams

Lee Evans

Michael Clayton

Michael Jenkins

Rashaun Woods

2003

Charles Rogers

Andre Johnson

Bryant Johnson

2002

Donte Stallworth

Ashley Lelie

Javon Walker

2001

David Terrell

Koren Robinson

Rod Gardner

Santana Moss

Freddie Mitchell

Reggie Wayne

2000

Peter Warrick

Plaxico Burress

Travis Taylor

Sylvester Morris

R. Jay Soward

Perhaps this questions should be reprhased to "which highly touted WR won't be a bust?"

 

[Sweet Love]

Tate - I've loved Tate for awhile now. I do think his physical skills could be a question, but I think he's pretty safe.

I like your choice of words. I think Tate will put up consistent numbers ala Cotchery. Roughly 75 catches, 900-1050 yards, 5 TDs once he gets going. Very good numbers for someone who will likely go in the the bottom half of round 2 or top of round 3. If someone stretches for him and selects him in round 1, even if he hits "expectations", not sure whether that would be a super ROI.

 

[MAC_32]

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

This seems like a silly thing to point out when he had over 600 yds in his 2 previous seasons. Not to mention over 1000 in 2008. The guy was injured, A LOT, last year. That seems to be his problem though. He has been injured a lot over his college career.

As a coach once said to me, "Are you hurt or are you injured?"Benn may have been hurt, but he must not have been injured if he played in 12 games. Coming off a mediocre season, he looks like a guy who's being drafted more on the basis of his potential than his production. I'm always a little bit leery of that breed, although I do think his productive 2008 season offers some cause for optimism.

I understand the counter most Benn supporters make, but if true then he should not have been playing. Clearly, him being on the field was not helping the team win. A lot more questions than answers about his makeup, I'm fine with taking that kind of gamble on a physical specimen like Benn later in the draft. Round 2? That's silly. Guys like Carlton Mitchell, Marcus Easley, David Gettis, anario Alexander, among others have similar ceilings and will cost significantly less than Benn. I think it'd be much, much smarter to go in another direction in round 2(ish) and look for an upside guy later.

 

[jurb26]

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

This seems like a silly thing to point out when he had over 600 yds in his 2 previous seasons. Not to mention over 1000 in 2008. The guy was injured, A LOT, last year. That seems to be his problem though. He has been injured a lot over his college career.

As a coach once said to me, "Are you hurt or are you injured?"Benn may have been hurt, but he must not have been injured if he played in 12 games. Coming off a mediocre season, he looks like a guy who's being drafted more on the basis of his potential than his production. I'm always a little bit leery of that breed, although I do think his productive 2008 season offers some cause for optimism.

I understand the counter most Benn supporters make, but if true then he should not have been playing. Clearly, him being on the field was not helping the team win.

That's kind of the point. Benn didn't play a good portion or missed time in at least 4 games last year. So in reality he wasn't on the field nearly as much as his stat sheet would suggest. The other side to this is that maybe Illinois figured that Benn at 70%, or whatever he may have been at the time, was still better than any of the alternatives they had. I mean it's not like Illinois is Florida or USC.

 

[jurb26]

It's been pointed out several times in this thread and over the past 4 months in other threads that Benn played with injuries all last season. You seem to want to ignore that because you don't like him. Sure he didn't miss any games (which may be a plus for his toughness) but to simply ignore that there was any effect is just shortsighted. I don't really care if you you are low on Benn, there are certainly valid reason one could be concerned, this one just seems like grasping at straws to me.Benn got a high ankle sprain in the season opener (9/5) on the 3rd play of the game and missed the rest of the game. He had the wind knocked out of him in the PSU (10/3) game and missed the last 4 minutes (not really a big deal). He suffered a concussion in the MSU (10/10) game and missed time (I can't remember how much). Finally, he re injured the ankle in the Michigan (10/31) game and missed time again.

I don't think it's "grasping at straws" to be concerned that a supposedly elite WR prospect only managed 490 receiving yards in his final collegiate season. That's just not the production you want to see from a future pro.

It is when you leave out a significant portion of the information. Simply saying that 490 yds isn't the kind of production you want to see from a future pro is disingenuous to say the least if you don't at least acknowledge some of the factors that led to those numbers. It's not like he never put up good numbers. He had well over 1000 yds in 2008. If he had never had a good season then I could understand the point. It's rather clear that injuries played a huge role in his disappointing season last year.

 

[lyon812]

I'm going to disagree with just about everyone here and say that I think Thomas busts. He is good in jump ball situations, has good build up speed and has good hands most of the time. But he is very green running routes, doesn't have great burst to get separation, seems too stiff to me and loses concentration at times. I think he's going to have more trouble in the NFL than most think.

I've also been aboard the Thomas-has-high-bust-potential train. I think the separation issues are due to him being something of a long strider, but right now he's a one-trick--deep--pony. Anyone looking at him as a #1 receiver needs to realize he might follow the Meachem path of multiple-year-development. All reports are he's a good character guy and a hard worker, which is in his favor, but he's a raw talent that needs a lot of coaching. Along with his route trees, he'll have to learn to read NFL coverages and deal with cornerbacks that haven't fallen asleep. Reminds me of the arguments last year about DHB and his elite potential. "Might be great, might be garbage" was EBF's quote on DHB. I feel the same about Thomas. I understand people being excited about him, but dismissing the drawbacks of his career at GA Tech and its potential effect on his development is shortsighted.

 

[EBF]

Anyone looking at him as a #1 receiver needs to realize he might follow the Meachem path of multiple-year-development. All reports are he's a good character guy and a hard worker, which is in his favor, but he's a raw talent that needs a lot of coaching. Along with his route trees, he'll have to learn to read NFL coverages and deal with cornerbacks that haven't fallen asleep.

I don't really like this comparison because I don't think Meachem is very good and I don't think he moves as well as Thomas. I would say Thomas is more likely to follow the Brandon Marshall model. One year of modest contributions followed by a rapid ascent to the WR1 role for whichever NFL team drafts him.

Reminds me of the arguments last year about DHB and his elite potential. "Might be great, might be garbage" was EBF's quote on DHB. I feel the same about Thomas. I understand people being excited about him, but dismissing the drawbacks of his career at GA Tech and its potential effect on his development is shortsighted.

The big difference between these two is that Thomas is a great athlete who has shown himself to be a standout playmaker in college whereas DHB was an underachiever with compelling workout numbers. Just look at the stats from their final seasonarrius Heyward-Bey 2008 - 42 catches, 609 yards, 5 TDsDemaryius Thomas 2009 - 46 catches, 1154 yards, 8 TDsNot even close. For all his physical talent, Heyward-Bey never became a dominant player on the football field. That's one of the hallmark signs of a workout warrior with sub par football intangibles. On the flipside, Thomas dominated his competition last season with almost twice as many yards as DHB on a similar number of catches. People who cite him as a raw workout warrior are way too quick to gloss over the fact that he produced insane numbers last season with the limited opportunities he received. Had he played in a conventional passing offense that featured him more prominently, we'd likely be talking about him as a top 10 overall pick.

 

[MAC_32]

Benn - The obvious bust candidate of the bunch. Had less than 500 receiving yards last season and is the only guy on this list whose production didn't align with his draft grade.

This seems like a silly thing to point out when he had over 600 yds in his 2 previous seasons. Not to mention over 1000 in 2008. The guy was injured, A LOT, last year. That seems to be his problem though. He has been injured a lot over his college career.

As a coach once said to me, "Are you hurt or are you injured?"Benn may have been hurt, but he must not have been injured if he played in 12 games. Coming off a mediocre season, he looks like a guy who's being drafted more on the basis of his potential than his production. I'm always a little bit leery of that breed, although I do think his productive 2008 season offers some cause for optimism.

I understand the counter most Benn supporters make, but if true then he should not have been playing. Clearly, him being on the field was not helping the team win.

That's kind of the point. Benn didn't play a good portion or missed time in at least 4 games last year. So in reality he wasn't on the field nearly as much as his stat sheet would suggest. The other side to this is that maybe Illinois figured that Benn at 70%, or whatever he may have been at the time, was still better than any of the alternatives they had. I mean it's not like Illinois is Florida or USC.

I get that and it's certainly possible, but you have to admit that's a pretty optimistic picture being painted. There are lots of possible explanations to explain his poor production last season and that's really the only one that makes Benn look good. On the flip side there are lots of potential explanations that cause Benn to look not so good. In the end, he has the measurables, but not the production. How is that different than the list of players I cited earlier?

 

[thevidon]

I think Thomas has the highest bust potential this year. I am tired of overdrafting the speed-height guys and getting burned. I will be avoiding him this year.

 

[fightingillini]

I'm not the biggest believer in Benn, but I feel like I should point out that if Dez Bryant had Juice friggin' Williams throwing him the ball everyone would probably be choosing Bryant as the 'bust.'

I am an Illini alum....take it from me.....it was painful to watch Juice Williams play QB, as well as Illinois didn't game plan to take advantage of Benn's skills. They just ran the ball and threw short passes all year long last year. Plus, Illinois was lacking in talent last year.....teams double teamed Benn all game long. No WR is going to put up good stats in that kind of offense.I don't think Benn will be a stud in the NFL, but I can see him being a solid WR. Round 2 is a little risky......I see his value in Round 3.

 

[az_prof]

I'm not the biggest believer in Benn, but I feel like I should point out that if Dez Bryant had Juice friggin' Williams throwing him the ball everyone would probably be choosing Bryant as the 'bust.'

I am an Illini alum....take it from me.....it was painful to watch Juice Williams play QB, as well as Illinois didn't game plan to take advantage of Benn's skills. They just ran the ball and threw short passes all year long last year. Plus, Illinois was lacking in talent last year.....teams double teamed Benn all game long. No WR is going to put up good stats in that kind of offense.I don't think Benn will be a stud in the NFL, but I can see him being a solid WR. Round 2 is a little risky......I see his value in Round 3.

This is a good point. I didn't see IL play a lot, but the two games I did see Juice Williams regularly overthrew his WRS by a mile. That WOULD affect a WR's production.