fantasyplayer
Footballguy
Which existing NFL RBs have seent their fantasy value fall the most as a result of last weekend's draft?
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Which incumbent RB took the biggest hit as a result of the draft? (1 Viewer)
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The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
parker
nyftbl_giants
Footballguy
DW the leash wont be long with everybody down here in Carolina on the hot seat.
FWP - I think mendy and sweed hurt him here, especially TDs
MBIII - another weapon added and possible replacement if MBIII departs
Benson I listed benson last because he didnt have much value to me to begin with.
FWP - I think mendy and sweed hurt him here, especially TDs
MBIII - another weapon added and possible replacement if MBIII departs
Benson I listed benson last because he didnt have much value to me to begin with.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Stewart will start by week 4.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I think it's Williams without a doubt. I still see Parker putting up #s pretty comparable to last year (he scored only 2 TDs last year and will still get 250-300 carries this year, meaning a 1300 yd, 4 TD season is not at all out of the question. Barber will still be the lead back and the GL hammer in Dallas. Benson already sucked. Williams had potential this year, but Stewart will probably end up with the bulk of the carries.
King of the Wolfies
Footballguy
I dont understand why people keep thinking that Barber has taken a hit. he was never going to be a 30 touch a game guy. Felix is the perfect compliment to Barber and Barber should be around 15-20 touches a game, which is more than he got last year. Plus Felix is not much of a GL threat.
I hope benson has a good real estate agent.
I hope benson has a good real estate agent.
I don't really think Barber took much of a hit, if you were expecting him to be the lone guy then you were kidding yourself. I don't see his situation as being very different from the last 2 years or so.
Benson was a poor RB3 before the draft, now he's probably worthless.
DeAngelo,like Barber, is in a similar situation to the one he was in the last 2 years.
I vote Parker, who I fully expect to see being the #2 in Pittsburgh by the end of the year.
Benson was a poor RB3 before the draft, now he's probably worthless.
DeAngelo,like Barber, is in a similar situation to the one he was in the last 2 years.
I vote Parker, who I fully expect to see being the #2 in Pittsburgh by the end of the year.
switz
Footballguy
I rank them this way:1. FWP - biggest hit, because he was probably ranked the highest prior to the draft2. DWilly - because some here actually thought he was going to get the starting job, and had him ranked as a starter3. MB3 - because some thought he was going to see a great increase in carries. However, with his workload likely increasing a little, he'll still be a good value, and his fantasy production likely will not tail off at all.4. Benson - well, it's not like he was producing much anyway, so it's hard for his FF value to take a hit LOL
sholditch
Footballguy
Yeah, with a plate in your ankle and a 3.5 ypc average, how much lower can you get. I expect Forte to start and finish the season. Benson's career started and ended without ever shifting out of first gear.DWill was coming on at the end of last year and it was likely too little too late. Too bad. I think he becomes the COP back.FWP I think is looking at a Duce-Bus type relationship, though Mendenhall doesn't fit the bus role too well. I think FWP starts the year, but sees his role decrease steadily throughout the year.MB3 I think is the safest. I think this signing keeps him in his role that he had with JJ there. So he stays basically the same.
Restricted
Footballguy
MBIII's wallet took a big hit as his leverage of being the only back lost some steam.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I think the consensus was that the Cowboys were going to get another back in this draft. The good news for Barber owners was that they passed on Mendenhall, and went for the complimentary back. I would think that Barber is in line for an increase in carries from a year ago. I would expect a 20% jump in his yardage totals and total touches. He had 248 touches a year ago. 300 seems likely this year. TD numbers are difficult to predict, but they should remain flat as he was already getting those opportunities. I would expect the Felix Jones will put up numbers similar to Jerious Norwood. Parker took a big hit. He went from feature back status and a borderline #1 RB to full blown RBBC. I suspect he'll won't be getting the goal line stuff, so he may be unstartable this year. Williams role won't change much. He never was a fantasy starter, and that won't change this year.Benson is junk.
switz
Footballguy
I don't tihnk the drafting of Jones had much of an impact, but when they took Choice it was a big slap in the face. After the draft Jerry said he didn't see Felix as a 25 carry back, but with Choice in the fold, even if Barber walks, Felix doesn't need 25 carries.With Barber's agent playing hardball, it's not inconceivable that the Boys let Barber play out the year and either prove his value, or just let him walk after the season is over. RBs with his running style have short shelf lives.
switz
Footballguy
Considering the negotiations, yes, I do believe it was an insurance pick, and a means to give the Cowboys more leverage than just drafting Jones alone. Slap in the face, was not mean as "insult" but rather as "wake up" - get his attention. My point, which you totally seemed to ignore, was that Jones was not really a threat to Barber getting resigned, and that Choice was more so of one.
LionsFan78
Footballguy
Has to be Parker for me. I never would've guessed they'd end up with a RB in the first round, let alone Mendenhall. Even though many had doubts, many owners were at least preparing for the fact that DAL, CAR and CHI might likely address the RB position somewhat early in the draft.
switz
Footballguy
Chris Johnson is too small to be an everydown back... LenDale's job is safe.Lendale White can't be too happy. Although, one could argue that the Titans were drafting drunk, so maybe they had no clue what they were doing when they went RB so early.
kupcho1
Footballguy
I highlighted "slap in the face" to point out what I took to be a massive overreaction to the drafting of Choice."Slap in the face" is something one might expect from the athlete in question; not an (assumed) unbiased message board poster. Now if you misspoke and meant it as a "wake up call", that's different. I just read what you wrote (and took it to mean what anyone would: an insult).
(BTW, I have no beef with your contention that FJones has a role to play, but isn't likely to displace Barber's. I just thought your post was puzzling.)
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
This should be a poll
1. Benson... Went from workhorse to out the door most likely.
2. DW.......Wasn't much with Foster when given the chance. Certainly won;t be much if Stewart is healthy.
3. FWP... could actually make him better with all the additional weapons. 2 TD'S a year just doesn;'t cut it for me even before Mendenhall though.
4. Barber .... Same as 3 but Barber has much higher ceiling then FWP.
1. Benson... Went from workhorse to out the door most likely.
2. DW.......Wasn't much with Foster when given the chance. Certainly won;t be much if Stewart is healthy.
3. FWP... could actually make him better with all the additional weapons. 2 TD'S a year just doesn;'t cut it for me even before Mendenhall though.
4. Barber .... Same as 3 but Barber has much higher ceiling then FWP.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Barber didn't......if anything drafting the guy they did increased his value after the draft. They drafted a 3rd down guy, a special teams guy. They also got a 4th round RB in Choice who could become something but he's a guy in case Barber got dinged that they could bring in because by drafting Felix, he couldn't take the full time beating. So by drafting Felix, you ultimately had to draf yet another RB because he couldn't be the full time guy.......which is NO THREAT to someone like Barber.The answer is easily Parker. Mendenhall is a complete back and probably will steal plenty of carries from Parker.King of the Wolfies said:
switz
Footballguy
I think we are in agreement on the DAL RB situation, and just express things differently.I really meant that of the two backs that were a "threat" to Barber - Choice is more so than Jones. It just allows the Boys more leverage in negotiations. I didn't mean it as an insult at all. I can see how it could be taken that way, but it's not what I meant.I highlighted "slap in the face" to point out what I took to be a massive overreaction to the drafting of Choice.
"Slap in the face" is something one might expect from the athlete in question; not an (assumed) unbiased message board poster. Now if you misspoke and meant it as a "wake up call", that's different. I just read what you wrote (and took it to mean what anyone would: an insult).
(BTW, I have no beef with your contention that FJones has a role to play, but isn't likely to displace Barber's. I just thought your post was puzzling.)
FWP - I think most people recognize that Mendy will be a huge tear into his time. FWP doesn't get many 3rd down touches as it is, and got very little red zone time despite having Dookie Davenport as his primary competition. Now, there is actually a very talented RB. FWP never really seemed to fit in with PGH's style, and the only reason he had such a big 06 was because Ben was so bad. Now, they have a quick guy who can block, catch passes, and slam into the line. I wouldn't be surprised if Mendy takes over the official starting role sometime this season
DAW - Stewart will be the starter within the first half of the season. I can see DAW getting some time, but he won't get much more than 10 carries per game. I don't think he was going to get more as it was because I never got the idea that DAW was going to be 'the man'
MBIII - MBIII took 0 hit. He was never going to have anything other than an RBBC as it was, Jerry Jones made that very clear. MBIII will continue to get the 2nd half touches as well as all the red zone work. Felix will catch passes out of the backfield and will get some periodic work to hit the HR from time to time. I have him taking 0 hit because I had Felix going to Dallas anyway. Now, had Dallas drafted Mendy, then yes, MBIII would've taken a hit
Cedric Benson - he took no hit because I had 0 intention of drafting him, even as a flex option during bye week in a very deep league
DAW - Stewart will be the starter within the first half of the season. I can see DAW getting some time, but he won't get much more than 10 carries per game. I don't think he was going to get more as it was because I never got the idea that DAW was going to be 'the man'
MBIII - MBIII took 0 hit. He was never going to have anything other than an RBBC as it was, Jerry Jones made that very clear. MBIII will continue to get the 2nd half touches as well as all the red zone work. Felix will catch passes out of the backfield and will get some periodic work to hit the HR from time to time. I have him taking 0 hit because I had Felix going to Dallas anyway. Now, had Dallas drafted Mendy, then yes, MBIII would've taken a hit
Cedric Benson - he took no hit because I had 0 intention of drafting him, even as a flex option during bye week in a very deep league
womb
Footballguy
I seem to remember the very same arguement when Williams entered the picture in Carolina. I am not arguing against Stewart here, but go back a few years and search the threads and you will find the reasons why Deangelo Williams and not Joseph Addai was the consensus number 2 pick then and how Foster was supposed to be history.I also think that the future of Felix Jones lies more in the hands of Drew Rosenhaus and Jerry Jones. I understand how Rosenhaus wants his client to get paid like a probowler, yet I also undrstand if DR does not yield, JJ may very easily find trade partners for next year 1st rounder(s) and then go sign Shaun Alexander to complement Jones & Choice. I agree with the slap comment wholeheartedly and take it as a warning. We saw where disagreements in negotiations can go and what the teams can do if they stay wide apart in the case of Deion Branch. I am sure JJ learnt the lesson from that and would want to finalize the deal fast before the veteran cavalry out there is gone.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I think I agree with most. FWP took the biggest hit because he went from a starting FF RB to quite possibly a handcuff but at best probably a RB#4 type player.
DWill lost any potential to see an increased role so his playing time and value will remain at about what it has been in the past.
MBIII was splitting time with JJ and was very effective in that role. His situation probably remains unchanged. He may have lost a little value in the eyes of some people who thought he would become a primary ballcarrier but I think most felt all along someone would be brought in to fill the JJ role.
Benson may have taken a bit of a hit from the standpoint that many now believe he will not be given every opportunity to be the starter. Since he has not produced in the past his actual production will probably remain about the same.
DWill lost any potential to see an increased role so his playing time and value will remain at about what it has been in the past.
MBIII was splitting time with JJ and was very effective in that role. His situation probably remains unchanged. He may have lost a little value in the eyes of some people who thought he would become a primary ballcarrier but I think most felt all along someone would be brought in to fill the JJ role.
Benson may have taken a bit of a hit from the standpoint that many now believe he will not be given every opportunity to be the starter. Since he has not produced in the past his actual production will probably remain about the same.
Tau837
Footballguy
Interesting. Here is the breakdown from last seasonEvilgrin 72 said:
arker 321/1316/2Davenport 107/499/5Davis 17/68/0Russell 7/21/0Kreider 1/2/0That's 453 carries for the RBs. This in an offense that was 3rd in the NFL with 511 rushing attempts (47 by QBs, 11 by WRs).I was curious how this compared to previous seasons, so I looked at the seasons since Roethlisberger has been there:2007 - 3rd in NFL with 511 rushing attempts, including 453 by RBs; 31st in NFL with 442 passing attempts; defense 2nd in points allowed and 1st in yards allowed; Tomlin2006 - 14th in NFL with 469 rushing attempts, including 415 by RBs; 14th in NFL with 523 passing attempts; defense 11th in points allowed and 9th in yards allowed; Cowher2005 - 1st in NFL with 549 rushing attempts, including 483 by RBs; last in NFL with 379 passing attempts; defense 3rd in points allowed and 4th in yards allowed; Cowher2004 - 1st in NFL with 618 rushing attempts, including 534 by RBs; last in NFL with 358 passing attempts; defense 1st in points allowed and 1st in yards allowed; CowherNote the correlation between the quality of the defense and the run/pass ratio. I assume the Steelers defense will be strong this year, but that does show that if the defense stumbles, there is a good possibility that the RB carries will drop drastically. Not earth shattering, I know, just an observation.It is hard for me to see the offense shifting philosophically back to the 2004 or 2005 run/pass ratio, since there is no way they will pass so infrequently (if offensive players are healthy). To me, last year's offense is probably the best model, particularly since it is (a) most recent, and the only version that really accounts for the current Roethlisberger, Holmes, Miller, etc.; and (b) the only version under Tomlin as HC. Perhaps a reasonable best case estimate (for the running game, anyway) is for the RBs to get 480 carries.It seems to me that, if healthy, Parker, Mendenhall, Davenport, and Moore will all get carries. Though I suppose if Moore will not be a third down RB now, as had been previously anticipated, he could be out of the mix. Anyway, how to divvy up those carries?In order for Parker to get 300, that would only leave 180 for the other 3. I suppose that is possible, but I'd suggest Parker will much more likely be on the 250 side at best, which might then look like this:250 Parker130 Mendenhall70 Davenport30 MooreTo me that is best case for Parker. Mendenhall is obviously good enough to earn more of Parker's carries, and I could easily see Parker with fewer than 200 carries on the season for that reason alone. And Parker may not be fully healthy. And I think other factors could drive the total RB carries, and thus Parker's share, down.On top of all that, I don't see much of a reason to believe Parker's TDs will go up much. He won't be the third down back, and I assume his red zone carries will also be limited. Last year, Parker had 16 carries inside the opponent's 10 yard line; in that same area, Davenport had 11 carries, Ben had 3 carries, and Ben attempted 26 passes. Now, Mendenhall, Moore, and Sweed have been added as possible red zone options.And Parker was already due to see fewer catches than in the past due to Moore's arrival... and he didn't catch many to begin with.Parker had the lowest ypc and ypr of his career last year, and the fewest TDs since he became a starter. He is coming off a major injury, and faces much stronger competition than in the past from both the passing game and the other RBs. I really don't see much to like here.I could see the 4 TDs you mentioned as possible, but I think 1300 yards is wishful thinking. I doubt he reaches 1000 total yards.
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King of the Wolfies said:
Barber is going to be great in the explosive offense in Dallas - plenty of touches for him to go 20-25 (carries + receptions) per game (I do expect to see closer to 20 than 15 per game - the Dallas coaching staff just doesn't want to go to the 400+ per season level with Barber as he is too valuable to expend at that pace) and still see 5-10 per game flow to Felix Jones. Early in the season, Barber will get more work as Jones gets wet behind the ears - then later on he'll spell Barber more often.Tashard Choice is a developmental prospect.Williams prolly has another year being (an even more) junior member of a RBBC in Carolina - I expect Stewart to be the starter from day 1 regular season now that the line has been retooled for a power rushing attack.Benson could be riding the pine throughout the season if Forte takes advantage of this opportunity in training camp. Benson has essentially no grasp on the starting job at this point in time, IMO. Mendenhall will vulture goal line touches from Parker but I, like others in this thread, think he'll still be the primary between-the-20's ball carrier this year with the ocassional TD from long distance to his credit.
Road Warriors
Footballguy
Nice breakdown. I somewhat disagree with how the workload will be shared, mostly between Davenport & Mendehall. I'm not sure Davenport sees much of the field once Mendenhall gets into the rotation. FWP - 280 Mendenhall - 150 Davenport - 50 Moore - any?I don't know if Moore will see much time in the backfield at all, to be honest. I think he's there as a Special teams/Returner, for the most part.In all, I think Mendenhall will take a larger chunk of carries than Davenport did last year, but FWP should still have about 75-80% of the carries he did last year.Interesting. Here is the breakdown from last seasonEvilgrin 72 said:
fantasyplayer
Footballguy
One I neglected to mention in the original post is Fargas. Certainly McFadden kills his long-term value.
enfuego
Footballguy
Tell that to Westbrook....Chris Johnson is too small to be an everydown back... LenDale's job is safe.Lendale White can't be too happy. Although, one could argue that the Titans were drafting drunk, so maybe they had no clue what they were doing when they went RB so early.
mdog1967
Footballguy
Kevin Smith is a talented back, I don't think one envisioned Bell as the Starter so mentioning that he would take a hit was pointless.Ironic. Tatum Bell's job seems safe.
mdog1967
Footballguy
Hold your powder, Fargas's value may be shot, in my opinion simply because he's a Raider and who knows over there. I would wait till a few games in the season before you get the Idea that McFadden's Arkansas production is going to translate to the NFL. In my opinion he wont be mentioned on draft boards in 2-3 years.
gman8343
What would Lemmy do?
I agree, his job as backup to Kevin Smith should be safe, unless he gets beaten out by Calhoun.Ironic. Tatum Bell's job seems safe.
switz
Footballguy
I don't expect Barber to see near 300 carries at all, but probably 300 touches. The most carries Julius had while Barber was in the #2 role was 260, and Barber only had 204 carries last season.Also, I expect the Cowboys to work Felix into the mix right away. Remember, Barber was drafted in what, the third round? Jones was a first round pick, and will see plenty of opportunities.
This came out AFTER Jones had implied they didn't see Jones as a 25-30 carry back. But...
Jones will probably see 10-15 touches per game, not counting kick returns.
nyftbl_giants
Footballguy
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