Which QB, RB, WR situations are not going to end like the masses think? (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

For the hell of it, I'll throw out 1 per team.

Arizona-Kyler Murray doesn't put it together in year 2, and actually regresses some, as the offense tries to integrate a true #1 WR. 

Atlanta-Hayden Hurst doesn't just seamlessly slide into Austin Hooper's spot, leading to the WR's taking on even bigger roles than expected.

Baltimore-Mark Ingram holds off JK Dobbins all season, as Dobbins just slides into Edwards role from last year.

Buffalo-Stefon Diggs is a smashing success, as he instantly becomes the true #1 WR, and crushes his ADP, becoming a low end WR1.

Carolina-DJ Moore regresses a bit, as the new offense makes the WR production less consistent week to week. Moore is a WR3.

Chicago-Allen Robinson is a WR1 regardless of who plays QB. No other Bears are more than bye week fillers.

Cincinnati-Joe Burrow hits the ground running and easily wins ROY. He has a high end QB2 season.

Cleveland-The Browns rushing game is easily the best in the league, as Chubb and Hunt combine for 2500 rushing yards.

Dallas-Dak Prescott takes a step backward, as the defense takes a step forward, leading to fewer overall attempts.

Denver-Lindsay and Gordon is a true RBBC, with both finishing as RB2's, as Denver is among the league rushing leaders.

Detroit-Kenny Golladay takes a step back, as the running game and Hockenson take away targets/touches, especially in the redzone.

Green Bay-Aaron Jones is the unchallenged RB1, and ends up underdrafted again with another top-5 season. 

Houston-David Johnson simply can't hold up to major touches and he and Duke end up being a frustrating RBBC.

Indianapolis-Jack Doyle has the occasional TD, but is useless for fantasy. He's mostly a blocker now that the WR's are improved.

Jacksonville-Gardner Minshew is a solid QB2, and plays well enough that the Jags consider trading Lawrence/Fields for massive draft capital.

Kansas City-CEH simply doesn't get the volume, and is one of the top busts of the year, as the Chiefs use a RBBC all year.

Las Vegas-Suddenly surrounded by playmakers, Derek Carr has a career year, and ends up a low end QB1.

LA Chargers- Despite the QB downgrade, Keenan Allen just keeps trucking along as a low end WR1. Proving his game works with any style QB.

LA Rams-The Rams become a true 12 personnel team, as both Higbee and Everett finish as top-15 TE's. 

Miami-Mike Gesicki takes a step backward, as his targets fall with an upgraded running game and a healthy Preston Williams.

Minnesota-Kyle Rudolph holds off Irv Smith, and the team passes more this year, leading to a borderline TE1/2 season.

New England-James White plays more than usual, and finishes as a top-20 RB.

New Orleans-With Kamara healthy, and Sanders added, Drew Brees closes out his career with one final top-5 season.

NY Giants-Evan Engram's inability to stay healthy, and a sophomore slump, lead to Daniel Jones being a bust, outside the top-20 QB's.

NY Jets-The Chris Herndon hype is just too much. Herndon is outside the top-15 TE's, and splits playing time with Ryan Griffin. Think OJ Howard from a year ago.

Philadelphia-Both Eagles TE's finish in the top-10 as no WR emerges. Also, Miles Sanders busts as the Eagles just can't shed their RBBC ways. Sanders is an average to low end RB2.

Pittsburgh-The Steelers become a WRBC, as nobody emerges and everybody has a week leading the team. Which makes JuJu a bust, and Claypool a potential value.

San Francisco-The 49ers running game and defense regress to the mean, leading to a Jimmy G mini breakout. High end QB2, or QBBC guy.

Seattle-Greg Olsen is a hot waiver pickup, as he dominates TE snaps in his final season, and is a great TE2, or streamer TE.

Tampa Bay-A year off did Gronk a world of good, as he comes back and catches 10 TD's. On his way to a top-5 TE season.

Tennessee-Jonnu Smith ends up the #2 pass catcher on the Titans, in route to a low end TE1 season.

Washington-Terry McLaurin is discount Allen Robinson. High end WR2 regardless of who is playing QB.

 

[Ilov80s]

OJ Howard should be taken where Gronk is going. He's going to be the TB TE to produce solid numbers this year. 

Gallup>>>Cooper>Lamb this year

Randall Cobb will be the target leader in Houston.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

A pretty adventurous attempt, but I have a few nits to pick...

Atlanta-Hayden Hurst doesn't just seamlessly slide into Austin Hooper's spot, leading to the WR's taking on even bigger roles than expected.

I dunno - Matt Ryan said he spent several days outside of practice with him & was blown away by his route-running & athleticism. He’s a guy I wanted but missed. He should be just fine in ATL. 

Buffalo-Stefon Diggs is a smashing success, as he instantly becomes the true #1 WR, and crushes his ADP, becoming a low end WR1.

I like Diggs. I’m unsure of how it will work out in BUF.  Allen says he wants to run less - but I’ve heard that line from running QBs before. Sometimes it’s just the nature of the beast. I think Diggs is a WR1 for the Bills and a WR2 for FF. He’ll still out-perform his ADP, agreed. He won’t see anything like his best days in MIN. 

where’d you pick him? 

Chicago-Allen Robinson is a WR1 regardless of who plays QB. No other Bears are more than bye week fillers.

except Cohen, PPR. ~100 reception RBs have weekly flex value, period. 

Cincinnati-Joe Burrow hits the ground running and easily wins ROY. He has a high end QB2 season.

agreed.

Detroit-Kenny Golladay takes a step back, as the running game and Hockenson take away targets/touches, especially in the redzone.

didn’t think AP would have that much of an impact, but as far as bold calls go, I like it! lol

Green Bay-Aaron Jones is the unchallenged RB1, and ends up underdrafted again with another top-5 season. 

the unchallenged #1 in FF or for the Packers?

Houston-David Johnson simply can't hold up to major touches and he and Duke end up being a frustrating RBBC

not frustrating for Duke owners.  

Kansas City-CEH simply doesn't get the volume, and is one of the top busts of the year, as the Chiefs use a RBBC all year.

wow. That’s super bold. 

New England-James White plays more than usual, and finishes as a top-20 RB.

I thought that was the expectation for white regardless this year. :notbold: 

Pittsburgh-The Steelers become a WRBC, as nobody emerges and everybody has a week leading the team. Which makes JuJu a bust, and Claypool a potential value.

I find this one very difficult to believe with Roethlisberger back. He loves Juju. He will pepper Juju with passes. Unpossible 

San Francisco-The 49ers running game and defense regress to the mean, leading to a Jimmy G mini breakout. High end QB2, or QBBC guy.

he was a bottom-end QB1 last year, but no one seemed to notice. I find it very difficult to believe that a team who’s identity is to be among the league leaders in RB touches will somehow not so that. This is also seems unpossible. 

Tampa Bay-A year off did Gronk a world of good, as he comes back and catches 10 TD's. On his way to a top-5 TE season.

I’ll give ya the 10 TD part, but all those surgically repaired body parts & a bad back aren’t gonna find the fountain of youth.

this last one seems odd since McClaurin’s ADP basically fits your exact description & everyone & their brother expects exactly this. 
:notbold:  

Washington-Terry McLaurin is discount Allen Robinson. High end WR2 regardless of who is playing QB.[:quote]

 

[wgoldsph]

I'm going to do a @travdogg and put up one per team

Arizona Drake ends up in a rbbc by game 7

Atlanta Julio finally loses a step, but in the mold of Fitzgerald becomes a great technical player and remains elite

Baltimore Lamar gets his carries cut in half but Bal still runs the same amount

Bills Diggs can't get on the same page as Allen, who's accuracy still doesn't improve.  Allen remains a better fantasy qb than real life qb and the bills draft someone to push him.

Carolina being the focal point of the offense for years finally catches up to CMC and he has his worst season to date

Chicago neither turbiski or foles end the season as the starter

Cincinnati burrow to Boyd is a hot connection all year long, aj green is a forgotten man

Cleveland-the offense finally excells like it was supposed to last year, mostly thanks to the run game and underneath targets. 

Dallas zeke takes a step back as the offense becomes centered around its three wrs

Denver-lock finishes as a mid range qb 1

Detroit-Matt Stafford finally has his day in the sun finishing top 5 qb 

Green Bay-Aaron Jones is the unchallenged RB1, and ends up underdrafted again with another top-5 season.  <-- copy/pasted this one

Houston-the entire team goes to #### and BOB gets fired midseason after Watson gets hurt while running around in the back field looking for an open target.

Indianapolis-Hines catches over 50 balls and scores over 6 tds

Jacksonville-shenault is 2020 Deebo

Kansas City-the entire team plays really well and lives up to their draft positions.  Yeah, really.

Las Vegas waller leads the team in catches despite the upgrades at wr

LA Chargers- Doesn't matter who's behind ekler as the backfield is his 

LA Rams-Goff becomes Sam Bradford - lots of completions for very little yards.  Rbs, TE's, and Kupp feast in ppr

Miami-Tua time by week 4 at the latest.  He's baby Russell Wilson.

Minnesota-attrition finally gets to Minnesota and they have a 6-10 or worse season

New England-nobody on ne is better than top 20 in their position outside of d, and k

New Orleans-Thomas drops outside of the top five wrs, facing almost constant double teams

NY giants Jones ball control issues don't get better in year two but a healthy Barkley and Engram lift the whole team

NY Jets-  Crowder catches over 100 balls as the only real wr on the team

Philadelphia-Wentz gets back into the mvp conversation as he can finally air the ball out again.  Philly still finds ways to lose games it should win though.

Pittsburgh-Connor is a bust and his backups aren't much better.  The steelers offense never finds its rhythm.

San Francisco-Deebo plays week one and ends up with 100/1000 and 500 rushing yards. 

Seattle-negative game script forces Seattle to unleash Wilson earlier and earlier each week until he's finally the focal point of the offense.

Tampa Bay-Chris Godwin is the yoked Julian Edelman / Wes Welker /Danny Amendola that Brady always wanted but never had.

Tennessee 2020 Henry looks a lot more like early 2019 Henry than playoff 2019 Henry

Washington Dwayne Haskins is not the qb of the future.

 

[Judge Smails]

I love this call. 

Based on what? What Taylor has done historically? His weapons in SD? I see anemic production

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Based on what? What Taylor has done historically? His weapons in SD? I see anemic production

Based on his weapons & the coaching system. 

i think he’s going to be a lot better than people think. 

”historically” he hasn’t had much to work with in BAL, BUF or CLE. 

A dump off to Ekeler could go to the house.  

 

[Judge Smails]

Yeah maybe I’m underrating the whole offense because I’m that down on Taylor. See him strictly as stop gap game manager.  If Williams wasn’t hurt I’d like the offense a little better. But Ekeler, Allen and Henry just isn’t enough IMO. I’m not giving any bump for the coaching staff. Maybe I should. We’ll see. 

 

[DJackson10]

No one in the TB offense ends up in the top 5 at seasons end and Mike Evans and Godwin have down yrs. 

JuJu becomes old JuJu with Ben back

Some dude out of nowhere takes over for a what we thought was a top 5 back after a poor start and injury leaving a few fantasy squads itching for trades at the deadline. 

Justin Jefferson puts up better numbers in Minny then Stefan Diggs does in Buff

Justin Herbit puts up Rivers type numbers

CHE becomes a serious top RB2 by the end of the year for KC 

 

[Super King]

Yeah maybe I’m underrating the whole offense because I’m that down on Taylor. See him strictly as stop gap game manager.  If Williams wasn’t hurt I’d like the offense a little better. But Ekeler, Allen and Henry just isn’t enough IMO. I’m not giving any bump for the coaching staff. Maybe I should. We’ll see. 

Tyrod can't/won't throw over the middle. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Tyrod can't/won't throw over the middle. 

Having Henry might change that.  Kind of a big target. 

 

[Super King]

Having Henry might change that.  Kind of a big target. 

Just remember, I told ya so....

 

[Snorkelson]

Tyrod can't/won't throw over the middle. 

Tyrod is intriguing to me, not that I’m drafting him or anything, but his situation. He was decent in buffalo but they drafted...ummm....I don’t remember his name, he was a mid 1st. So he ends up in Seattle, and they draft russel Wilson in the 4th who subsequently plays his way into a starting role and hasn’t looked back. So he becomes a backup again and bounces around. The starter moves on, another rookie moves in, but the pandemic has thrown the offseason schedule into disarray, and Taylor gets one more chance to start in the league. Throw out what we’ve seen years ago when he last started; he has nothing to lose here and may play that way. Think Alex smith pre mahomes and post mahomes. He needed to be more aggressive and he had a career year. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

My adhd kicks in when reading the lists of all the teams, but I saw some good ones.  I'm only going to throw out a couple for those like me that get easily distracted.

1.  E Sanders finishes the year tied with M Thomas in Fantasy Points (+- 30 points)

2.  Darrel Williams out scores CEH in fantasy points.(non-ppr)

3.  Maimi Dolphins finish with more wins than NE and are a wild card team.

 

[doeseatplace]

Yeah maybe I’m underrating the whole offense because I’m that down on Taylor. See him strictly as stop gap game manager.  If Williams wasn’t hurt I’d like the offense a little better. But Ekeler, Allen and Henry just isn’t enough IMO. I’m not giving any bump for the coaching staff. Maybe I should. We’ll see. 

Agreed.  I drafted him in 2018 as a stopgap for Jameis' suspension...he just looked bad.  Now the Browns were no good, but neither is this Charger team.  I'd like him to succeed but I'm not counting on it.  They may not have much of a choice, though, as there is skepticism about Herbert.  Maybe Easton Stick is a super deep 2nd half sleeper?

 

[GroveDiesel]

Based on his weapons & the coaching system. 

i think he’s going to be a lot better than people think. 

”historically” he hasn’t had much to work with in BAL, BUF or CLE. 

A dump off to Ekeler could go to the house.  

Buffalo actually had decent weapons when Taylor was there. Robert Woods is pretty darn good. Sammy Watkins played well (when healthy) and McCoy was still a really good RB. Ultimately Tyrod has always limited himself as he is overly conservative.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Buffalo actually had decent weapons when Taylor was there. Robert Woods is pretty darn good. Sammy Watkins played well (when healthy) and McCoy was still a really good RB. Ultimately Tyrod has always limited himself as he is overly conservative.

Could be coaching. I had Watkins a couple of those seasons. I had disappoint. 

 

[GroveDiesel]

Could be coaching. I had Watkins a couple of those seasons. I had disappoint. 

Well, Rex Ryan was a circus so that is certainly true that coaching wasn’t great. But they did specifically ask him to be more aggressive and he just never did. So I’d say it’s both.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just remember, I told ya so....

I don’t have to remember. The board will remember.  The board remembers all. 
minous: 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well, Rex Ryan was a circus so that is certainly true that coaching wasn’t great. But they did specifically ask him to be more aggressive and he just never did. So I’d say it’s both.

Reasonably sure this is Tryod’s last chance as a starter. If he blows this he’ll be a career backup. If he even gets that chance again. 

 

[Tanner9919]

Mack outscores Taylor in FF

Rodgers outscores Brady and Brees in FF

Can Newton will crush his ADP

Ya know, I was pretty much going to say the same things re: Mack and Newton. I think ppl are too quick to kick Mack to the curb for a guy who suffers from acute Fumbleitis ( Taylor).

Cam is McDaniels shiny new toy, they've seen other teams use the mobile QB to much success. Now you get one of the best OCs in the game to try his hand at it.and Newton is almost an afterthought it seems he's grossly overlooked here.

Rodgers is no spring chicken himself ,or NZ lamb for that matter, but he hasn't shown the signs of decay like Brees and Brady have recently.  Both are clearly at the end of the trail staring at a sunset, while Rodgers has a few more seasons left. Brees is in the NBC booth next fall, and Brady might not survive the 47 sacks Winston took last season. If that line isn't better he's going to get killed.Peyton's decay was clearly on display before he left for Denver. Same is true with Brady he looked really old at times last season.

ok one at each position:

QB Lamar Jackson - teams will watch tapes of the playoffs lasts season for blueprints on how to slow LJ down. Not saying he's going to drop like a stone in a lake, but he's not going to be the Wizard he was last season.

RB CMC fails to replicate his 2019 season, 20% drop in stats across the board with the New Kids on the Block coaching staff sans Norv/Scott Turner in Carolina. will finish as one of the 4 worst teams in the NFL 

WR AJ Green - he's not going to re-emerge as a top dawg on offense, that ship has sailed. he's 70 years old, oft-injured, and as a result, he will struggle to finish as a top 30 WR in 2020. 

TE Waller- he'll get his stats, but not nearly as many recs as last season. Not only do the LVR have WR options, but the recent waiving of Riddick and others are proof-positive that the Raiders plan to throw to JJ out of the backfield a TON. I just think they spread the ball around better than they did last season and JJ will be a huge part of that.

 

[zoonation]

This exactly.

and in true Brady fashion, he’ll probably make fools of us all.

side-note: no Brady hate. He went to high school down the street from my high school in San Mateo, CA. Same school Barry Bonds went. Talk about churning out HOF talent. Man. Arguably two of the best to suit up in their respective sports (both had cheating scandals, too...)

I think I am in this camp also.  I drafted Godwin (around ADP) in one of my two main leagues and am already regretting it.  I think both Godwin and Evans won't meet consensus projections because Brady isn't throwing for 5000 yards like Winston did.  Winston was a stud fantasy QB even with his 33 picks and I expect all throwing stats to regress significantly as Brady manages the game and doesn't have a cannon for an arm anymore.

I want to start Diggs over Godwin this week already.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

QB - Rivers leads all QB's in rushing yards

I can't see Rivers leading QBs in rushing yards, but I do think between Hilton, Campbell and Pittman Jr (plus Doyle), some quality pass catching backs (Mack/Taylor/Hynes) and a D that will shorten fields, that Rivers surprises everyone by cracking Top 10.

Other positions:

RB: A lot of people pinned hopes on Chubb and I think now most people have realigned to the fact that Hunt's going to be a factor. I'll go one step further and say they will finish the year with the same stats.

WR:  Courtland Sutton was a big reason why my fantasy team did so well. He is certainly talented enough to pick up right where he left off. My view, however, is that with Jeudy, Fant poised to take a step, and Hamler an unkown, and with two pass-catching backs in Lindsay and Gordon, I just don't think the same targets will be there and he'll disappoint those expecting fantasy WR1 performance.

 

[dmac37]

QB- Chargers stay in contention leaving T-Mobile the starter all year and a top 15 fantasy QB

RB- Hunt and McKinnon are the leading PPR scoring RB's on their team

WR- Pittman is the top rookie fantasy WR

TE- TJ Hockinson is a top 5 fantasy TE

 

[BoltBacker]

Derek Carr(QB 28 ADP) outscores Daniel Jones(QB 14 ADP) in FF.

Boston Scott(RB  52 ADP) outscores Mark Ingram(RB 23 ADP) in PPR FF.

DeSean Jackson(WR 53 ADP) outscores AJ Brown(WR 17 ADP) in FF. 

Kyle Rudolph(TE 24 ADP) outscores Hayden Hurst(TE 10 ADP) in FF.

 

[ratbast]

Ingram 800 yds 15 tds., dobbins between 20s. 

Jarwin is wide open all year. Top 5 TE. 

Pats new TEs pop in 2nd half

Cook top RB until week 10, when he gets Covid, on purpose. 
 

Pats crush East, get to Conference title game and lose to KC when Cam dives for fumble in 3rd quarter and breaks his arm. 
 

Gronk retires after week 3, Gurley week 4, Bell week 5. oh I forgot, Rivers retires this Saturday 

Brisset leads Colts to 3rd seed. 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Cook top RB until week 10, when he gets Covid, on purpose.