Which RBs would you trade ADP for? (1 Viewer)

[ookook]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.

So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered?

LT? Sure.

S-Jax. Sure.

Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?

One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....

So tell me, who?

 

[Blackjacks]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered? LT? Sure.S-Jax. Sure.Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....So tell me, who?

Bush, McGahee and Maroney would be 3 to go with SJAX and LT. I don't know if I'd trade him for Addai, that would be close.

 

[EBF]

It depends on the league. I'd give him up for Bush in a PPR. I'd give him up for LT and Jackson in any format. I'd probably give him up for Gore in any format. After that it would be a very difficult decision. I'd consider dealing him for Addai or Parker.

 

[super sleeper]

I don't think you'd have a shot at LT or SJ. Gore, Maroney, Bush, Addai would be the ones I would say, since they established themselves last year. But you have to take some risk into consideration, so most owners, unless they are absolutely stacked at RB, would likely offer more of a package of top WR and top 10 RB. One wild card might be Larry Johnson. I could see an owner moving him for AD if he felt LJ was looking at a protracted holdout, or felt KC would suck this year.

 

[acme]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered? LT? Sure.S-Jax. Sure.Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....So tell me, who?

Da Da Da Duh - De - Da! This sounds like a job for: The ASSISTANT COACH FORUM!

 

[supermark_28]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered? LT? Sure.S-Jax. Sure.Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....So tell me, who?

Da Da Da Duh - De - Da! This sounds like a job for: The ASSISTANT COACH FORUM!

 

[ookook]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered? LT? Sure.S-Jax. Sure.Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....So tell me, who?

Da Da Da Duh - De - Da! This sounds like a job for: The ASSISTANT COACH FORUM!

Actually, no. It is a ranking question about the relative value of a new RB I have never seen play. I have no extent offers for said player and have no plans to trade him.However, whenever there is a top 10 playey out there I would like to know where they fall. Pairwise comparison is one of the very best ways to establish a relative order.

 

[-OZ-]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk.

Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

 

[gianmarco]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk. Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

I agree except that he isn't being drafted as such. Got him at 2.1 in a 12 team startup dynasty and loved it.

 

[DenverBroncos]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk.

Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

I agree except that he isn't being drafted as such. Got him at 2.1 in a 12 team startup dynasty and loved it.

WAY OVERPAID!! he hasn't even had a carry yet and you annoit him as a top 7 RB, that is lunatic! I gurantee Lynch has a better career then ADP.ps. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PLEASE SEND ME AN INVITE TO YOUR NEXT DYNASTY LEAGUE DRAFT.

 

[Ned]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered? LT? Sure.S-Jax. Sure.Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....So tell me, who?

Bush, McGahee and Maroney would be 3 to go with SJAX and LT. I don't know if I'd trade him for Addai, that would be close.

mcgahee? absolutely not. maroney i would have to think very long and hard about.

 

[bostonfred]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, PLEASE SEND ME AN INVITE TO YOUR NEXT DYNASTY LEAGUE DRAFT.

Thank you for self-identifying.

 

[Chunky Soup]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk.

Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

I agree except that he isn't being drafted as such. Got him at 2.1 in a 12 team startup dynasty and loved it.

WAY OVERPAID!! he hasn't even had a carry yet and you annoit him as a top 7 RB, that is lunatic! I gurantee Lynch has a better career then ADP.ps. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PLEASE SEND ME AN INVITE TO YOUR NEXT DYNASTY LEAGUE DRAFT.

You've had some quality postings recently. Listen, if you don't realize the potential of ADP, then please, join my league. His ceiling is way higher than those other players at 2.01, especially in a great situation for a RB in Min. Not to mention, of course, this is likely the 2nd RB he chose so, IMO, he's in a decent position to go for a riskier commodity.

 

[Buckna]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk.

Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

I agree except that he isn't being drafted as such. Got him at 2.1 in a 12 team startup dynasty and loved it.

WAY OVERPAID!! he hasn't even had a carry yet and you annoit him as a top 7 RB, that is lunatic! I gurantee Lynch has a better career then ADP.ps. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PLEASE SEND ME AN INVITE TO YOUR NEXT DYNASTY LEAGUE DRAFT.

You've had some quality postings recently. Listen, if you don't realize the potential of ADP, then please, join my league. His ceiling is way higher than those other players at 2.01, especially in a great situation for a RB in Min. Not to mention, of course, this is likely the 2nd RB he chose so, IMO, he's in a decent position to go for a riskier commodity.

In 3 Initial dynasty drafts I saw in May with 14 teams where the owners were ALL FBG's, Peterson went: 1.07, 1.06 and 1.09.

 

[Irish]

I am trying to establish some sort of value baseline for Adrian Peterson in a dynasty format.So my question is, which RBs would you trade him away for if offered? LT? Sure.S-Jax. Sure.Gore? Maybe, not sure. Addai?One has to figure it may be a year before he gets his full load of carries....So tell me, who?

Bush, McGahee and Maroney would be 3 to go with SJAX and LT. I don't know if I'd trade him for Addai, that would be close.

McGahee and Maroney a big NO. No also on Gore due to his history of injuries. LT and SJax a definite yes. Parker or Addai would really have to think long and hard about. Bush yes in either format due to all the catches/yardage he will get. LJ no due to overuse and KC/contract situation.

 

[Irish]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk.

Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

I agree except that he isn't being drafted as such. Got him at 2.1 in a 12 team startup dynasty and loved it.

WAY OVERPAID!! he hasn't even had a carry yet and you annoit him as a top 7 RB, that is lunatic! I gurantee Lynch has a better career then ADP.ps. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PLEASE SEND ME AN INVITE TO YOUR NEXT DYNASTY LEAGUE DRAFT.

You've had some quality postings recently. Listen, if you don't realize the potential of ADP, then please, join my league. His ceiling is way higher than those other players at 2.01, especially in a great situation for a RB in Min. Not to mention, of course, this is likely the 2nd RB he chose so, IMO, he's in a decent position to go for a riskier commodity.

In 3 Initial dynasty drafts I saw in May with 14 teams where the owners were ALL FBG's, Peterson went: 1.07, 1.06 and 1.09.

Mistakenly some people don't realize that Peterson has once in 20 yrs type of running skills. Some will downplay the Minny situation, but LT's situation with the Chargers or Sanders with Lions were not all that great either. Dynasty leagues are a whole different breed than redraft or even keeper leagues for that matter when it comes to evaluating players values.

 

[Buckna]

In the pinned master dynasty thread, there is a link to a thread with lots of posts of what people were trading the top rookie picks for.

FWIW, I traded Rudi pre-April draft before Cinci took Irons for the 1.01. The best offer I received for the 1.01 after that was:

Marion Barber + Colston + Pennington

for

1.01 + Gonzo

which I rejected.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Mistakenly some people don't realize that Peterson has once in 20 yrs type of running skills.

I surely don't believe that he does.In the past 20 years you'e had - Thurman, Barry, Ricky, Edge, LaDainian, Emmit, Jerome, Curtis, Marshall, Shaun, Terrell and such.

 

[SSOG]

Mistakenly some people don't realize that Peterson has once in 20 yrs type of running skills.

I surely don't believe that he does.In the past 20 years you'e had - Thurman, Barry, Ricky, Edge, LaDainian, Emmit, Jerome, Curtis, Marshall, Shaun, Terrell and such.

ADP has, at best, once-in-two-or-three-years type talent- and there's no telling how many other young backs have comparable talent (I'd say guys like Gore and Jones-Drew already have a head start in PROVING that they have that once-in-two-or-three-years type talent, as opposed to just speculation). Unproven guys are so ridiculously overrated in dynasty- remember, it was just last year that people were trading Tomlinson for Reggie Bush straight up, saying Bush was a once-in-twenty-years talent... and now, despite the fact that Bush was actually pretty good last year, people would rather have Adrian Peterson. And next year, all of those people who drafted Adrian Peterson wouldn't be able to trade him for Darren McFaddon, the next "once-in-twenty-years" talent. The sensationalism attached to players who have NEVER PLAYED A DOWN OF NFL FOOTBALL IN THEIR ENTIRE LIVES is positively absurd. And it's not just Bush or Peterson- see Calvin Johnson for another perfect example.

More on the subject of Peterson... for such a spectacular talent, I recall quite a few instances where Peterson simply disappeared (how about his entire sophomore year until it didn't matter anymore, for starters). I'd be hesitant to burn a top-10 dynasty pick on an RB who had a history of disappearing in COLLEGE (which, as we all know, is not the NFL).

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

Only for LT or SJax. Other than them I'd just waita season or two to see what I got.

 

[gianmarco]

I traded AD for Portis + before the real draft. I might make the same deal today, but only because I believe Portis will return to top 5-7 form and the + helps take some of the risk.

Basically, AD is a top 7 RB in dynasty IMO. LT, SJax, Bush, Gore, LJ right now pretty much have to be ranked higher. Parker, Addai, Portis, and Rudi might be.

I agree except that he isn't being drafted as such. Got him at 2.1 in a 12 team startup dynasty and loved it.

WAY OVERPAID!! he hasn't even had a carry yet and you annoit him as a top 7 RB, that is lunatic! I gurantee Lynch has a better career then ADP.ps. I've said it before and I'll say it again, PLEASE SEND ME AN INVITE TO YOUR NEXT DYNASTY LEAGUE DRAFT.

You've had some quality postings recently. Listen, if you don't realize the potential of ADP, then please, join my league. His ceiling is way higher than those other players at 2.01, especially in a great situation for a RB in Min. Not to mention, of course, this is likely the 2nd RB he chose so, IMO, he's in a decent position to go for a riskier commodity.

He was actually my first as I had traded down. Grabbed T. Henry at 2.06

 

[bostonfred]

Do people talking about him like this really think he's got Tomlinson talent? Or just that he's a very talented running back who should have a nice long career ahead of him?

 

[Chunky Soup]

Do people talking about him like this really think he's got Tomlinson talent? Or just that he's a very talented running back who should have a nice long career ahead of him?

Talent? I think AP has more talent entering the league than LT did.

 

[mozzy84]

jackson/lt/bush, otherwise I would rather just wait and see what I have in AD, could be a dumb move but I would take the chance. In two years the vikes will still have a good or even better o-line (not to mention offense in general) and he SHOULD be unstoppable.

 

[cobalt_27]

Twice broken collarbone, right? A position that takes some punishment. Priest Holmes sitting down with him this last weekend, saying he's got to play through little nicks and bruises (after his hip pointer the other day)...

I don't know. Easily talented enough. But, some guys catch the injury bug more than others. Nothing I've seen out of Peterson's health resume really makes me all that comfortable investing a great amount in him, if he's always nursing this, that, or the other thing.

Someone please talk me out of this perspective because I want to project him high and, possibly, pay through the nose to get him.

 

[Irish]

Mistakenly some people don't realize that Peterson has once in 20 yrs type of running skills.

I surely don't believe that he does.In the past 20 years you'e had - Thurman, Barry, Ricky, Edge, LaDainian, Emmit, Jerome, Curtis, Marshall, Shaun, Terrell and such.

ADP has, at best, once-in-two-or-three-years type talent- and there's no telling how many other young backs have comparable talent (I'd say guys like Gore and Jones-Drew already have a head start in PROVING that they have that once-in-two-or-three-years type talent, as opposed to just speculation). Unproven guys are so ridiculously overrated in dynasty- remember, it was just last year that people were trading Tomlinson for Reggie Bush straight up, saying Bush was a once-in-twenty-years talent... and now, despite the fact that Bush was actually pretty good last year, people would rather have Adrian Peterson. And next year, all of those people who drafted Adrian Peterson wouldn't be able to trade him for Darren McFaddon, the next "once-in-twenty-years" talent. The sensationalism attached to players who have NEVER PLAYED A DOWN OF NFL FOOTBALL IN THEIR ENTIRE LIVES is positively absurd. And it's not just Bush or Peterson- see Calvin Johnson for another perfect example.

More on the subject of Peterson... for such a spectacular talent, I recall quite a few instances where Peterson simply disappeared (how about his entire sophomore year until it didn't matter anymore, for starters). I'd be hesitant to burn a top-10 dynasty pick on an RB who had a history of disappearing in COLLEGE (which, as we all know, is not the NFL).

 

[BroadwayG]

Everyone ranked Cedric Benson and above.

Of course I would have traded the 1.01 pick before the league had its draft.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Only for LT or SJax. Other than them I'd just waita season or two to see what I got.

I wouldn't trade Peterson for anyone but those 2.

 

[jurb26]

Mistakenly some people don't realize that Peterson has once in 20 yrs type of running skills.

I surely don't believe that he does.In the past 20 years you'e had - Thurman, Barry, Ricky, Edge, LaDainian, Emmit, Jerome, Curtis, Marshall, Shaun, Terrell and such.

ADP has, at best, once-in-two-or-three-years type talent- and there's no telling how many other young backs have comparable talent (I'd say guys like Gore and Jones-Drew already have a head start in PROVING that they have that once-in-two-or-three-years type talent, as opposed to just speculation). Unproven guys are so ridiculously overrated in dynasty- remember, it was just last year that people were trading Tomlinson for Reggie Bush straight up, saying Bush was a once-in-twenty-years talent... and now, despite the fact that Bush was actually pretty good last year, people would rather have Adrian Peterson. And next year, all of those people who drafted Adrian Peterson wouldn't be able to trade him for Darren McFaddon, the next "once-in-twenty-years" talent. The sensationalism attached to players who have NEVER PLAYED A DOWN OF NFL FOOTBALL IN THEIR ENTIRE LIVES is positively absurd. And it's not just Bush or Peterson- see Calvin Johnson for another perfect example.

More on the subject of Peterson... for such a spectacular talent, I recall quite a few instances where Peterson simply disappeared (how about his entire sophomore year until it didn't matter anymore, for starters). I'd be hesitant to burn a top-10 dynasty pick on an RB who had a history of disappearing in COLLEGE (which, as we all know, is not the NFL).

Just like the LT thread, people have lost sight of reality yet again.

 

[EBF]

Mistakenly some people don't realize that Peterson has once in 20 yrs type of running skills.

I surely don't believe that he does.In the past 20 years you'e had - Thurman, Barry, Ricky, Edge, LaDainian, Emmit, Jerome, Curtis, Marshall, Shaun, Terrell and such.

ADP has, at best, once-in-two-or-three-years type talent- and there's no telling how many other young backs have comparable talent (I'd say guys like Gore and Jones-Drew already have a head start in PROVING that they have that once-in-two-or-three-years type talent, as opposed to just speculation). Unproven guys are so ridiculously overrated in dynasty- remember, it was just last year that people were trading Tomlinson for Reggie Bush straight up, saying Bush was a once-in-twenty-years talent... and now, despite the fact that Bush was actually pretty good last year, people would rather have Adrian Peterson. And next year, all of those people who drafted Adrian Peterson wouldn't be able to trade him for Darren McFaddon, the next "once-in-twenty-years" talent. The sensationalism attached to players who have NEVER PLAYED A DOWN OF NFL FOOTBALL IN THEIR ENTIRE LIVES is positively absurd. And it's not just Bush or Peterson- see Calvin Johnson for another perfect example.

More on the subject of Peterson... for such a spectacular talent, I recall quite a few instances where Peterson simply disappeared (how about his entire sophomore year until it didn't matter anymore, for starters). I'd be hesitant to burn a top-10 dynasty pick on an RB who had a history of disappearing in COLLEGE (which, as we all know, is not the NFL).

I agree with your general point, but I think you're a little off the mark. Bush, Peterson, and Johnson really are rare prospects. That the latter two haven't played a down of NFL football in no way diminishes their ability or eliminates the chance of them becoming perennial Pro Bowlers.

As for Peterson "disappearing," I don't find it a major concern. Sure, he had some dud games here and there, but his stats were pretty phenomenal. It's not his fault that his team was horribly outclassed by USC. Granted, the Vikings aren't going to have a talent advantage over many of the teams in the NFL, but I still don't think anyone should be worried by Peterson's college production.

Steven Jackson had a pretty weak final season in college. That can happen when you play for a mediocre program in a major conference and are the center of every opposing team's attention.

 

[Buckna]

Once in 20 years is extreme hyperbole, but I would certainly rank Peterson and Bush as once every 3-5 years type talents. I'd certainly put those two guys coming into the league from college higher than anyone since LT. I definitely see them as better than other recent 1st rounders like Caddy, Benson, Ronnie Brown, William Green, SJax, Kevin Jones, Ducket, Perry. Maybe if McGahee hadn't shredded his knee, he might have been up there.

 

[EBF]

Once in 20 years is extreme hyperbole, but I would certainly rank Peterson and Bush as once every 3-5 years type talents. I'd certainly put those two guys coming into the league from college higher than anyone since LT. I definitely see them as better than other recent 1st rounders like Caddy, Benson, Ronnie Brown, William Green, SJax, Kevin Jones, Ducket, Perry. Maybe if McGahee hadn't shredded his knee, he might have been up there.

That's about how I see it. And being the best prospect of the past 2-3 years isn't too shabby when you consider the length of the average NFL career.

 

[Irish]

Once in 20 years is extreme hyperbole, but I would certainly rank Peterson and Bush as once every 3-5 years type talents. I'd certainly put those two guys coming into the league from college higher than anyone since LT. I definitely see them as better than other recent 1st rounders like Caddy, Benson, Ronnie Brown, William Green, SJax, Kevin Jones, Ducket, Perry. Maybe if McGahee hadn't shredded his knee, he might have been up there.

Once in 20 yrs in reference to pure running ability, not the best rb in last 20 yrs. How soon people forget that LT2 had question marks coming out of TCU. He did not play in a pro style offense and there were questions whether or not he could make the adjustment. He was not a sure thing.

 

[Burning Sensation]

From a recent top 10 list i posted. I would probably trade him for any player above him, and probably not for any below.

1. Stephen Jackson

2. Ladanian Tomlinson

3. Reggie Bush

4. Frank Gore

5. Laurence Maroney

6. Joseph Addai

7. Adrian Peterson

8. Ronnie Brown

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Maurice Jones-Drew

Of course assuming dynasty league.

 

[jurb26]

From a recent top 10 list i posted. I would probably trade him for any player above him, and probably not for any below.1. Stephen Jackson2. Ladanian Tomlinson3. Reggie Bush4. Frank Gore5. Laurence Maroney6. Joseph Addai7. Adrian Peterson8. Ronnie Brown9. Marshawn Lynch10. Maurice Jones-DrewOf course assuming dynasty league.

Of this list I would trade him for:JacksonLTBushGoreMaroneyMJD

 

[-OZ-]

Once in 20 years is extreme hyperbole, but I would certainly rank Peterson and Bush as once every 3-5 years type talents. I'd certainly put those two guys coming into the league from college higher than anyone since LT. I definitely see them as better than other recent 1st rounders like Caddy, Benson, Ronnie Brown, William Green, SJax, Kevin Jones, Ducket, Perry. Maybe if McGahee hadn't shredded his knee, he might have been up there.

How can RBs drafted in consecutive classes be "once every 3-5 years type talents"?IMHO McGahee was equally talented, pre-injury. LT was only 5 years before Bush, so there's 4 in 6 years.

Edge and Ricky Williams in 99

Lawrence Phillips in 96

KiJana Carter in 95

Marshall Faulk in 94

Obviously Phillips and Carter were busts (for different reasons), but that's 9 RBs that were labeled "once in a lifetime" talents in 14 years.

So, how about "once every other year type talent"? And even that isn't quite accurate.

McFadden should make 3 "once in a lifetime" talents in 3 years.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Once in 20 years is extreme hyperbole, but I would certainly rank Peterson and Bush as once every 3-5 years type talents. I'd certainly put those two guys coming into the league from college higher than anyone since LT. I definitely see them as better than other recent 1st rounders like Caddy, Benson, Ronnie Brown, William Green, SJax, Kevin Jones, Ducket, Perry. Maybe if McGahee hadn't shredded his knee, he might have been up there.

How can RBs drafted in consecutive classes be "once every 3-5 years type talents"?IMHO McGahee was equally talented, pre-injury. LT was only 5 years before Bush, so there's 4 in 6 years.

Edge and Ricky Williams in 99

Lawrence Phillips in 96

KiJana Carter in 95

Marshall Faulk in 94

Obviously Phillips and Carter were busts (for different reasons), but that's 9 RBs that were labeled "once in a lifetime" talents in 14 years.

So, how about "once every other year type talent"? And even that isn't quite accurate.

McFadden should make 3 "once in a lifetime" talents in 3 years.

I think Bush and Ricky were in a league of their own, maybe Bo Jackson before them.

 

[SSOG]

I agree with your general point, but I think you're a little off the mark. Bush, Peterson, and Johnson really are rare prospects.

That the latter two haven't played a down of NFL football in no way diminishes their ability or eliminates the chance of them becoming perennial Pro Bowlers.

As for Peterson "disappearing," I don't find it a major concern. Sure, he had some dud games here and there, but his stats were pretty phenomenal. It's not his fault that his team was horribly outclassed by USC. Granted, the Vikings aren't going to have a talent advantage over many of the teams in the NFL, but I still don't think anyone should be worried by Peterson's college production.

Steven Jackson had a pretty weak final season in college. That can happen when you play for a mediocre program in a major conference and are the center of every opposing team's attention.

I could understand Peterson being stifled by USC. I can't understand Peterson being held to 66 yards on 23 carries (2.9 ypc)... by Texas Christian University.To be honest, I don't care how good of a PROSPECT Peterson is. I care how good of a career he's going to have. Ryan Leaf was a tremendous prospect, too, while Terrell Davis was an absolute afterthought in the draft process. Tony Mandarich and Robert Gallery were both absolute "can't-miss" guys (Gallery, in particular, was described as the safest pick in the last decade). When I'm drafting, I'm trying to maximize my chances of getting a guy who is going to have a stud NFL career, and to be honest, a former 6th rounder who rushed for 1500 yards is more likely to have a stud career than a "once-in-twenty-years talent" like Peterson. That's just simple fact, borne out time and time again by historical evidence. Guys who have proven it in the league are drastically underrated compared to unproven guys like Bush and Peterson.

In fact, Reggie Bush is the perfect example. Last season, many people valued Reggie Bush more highly than LaDanian Tomlinson. This season, people value Adrian Peterson more highly than Reggie Bush- despite the fact that Bush looked pretty darn good this past season. And as I said earlier in this thread, I suspect next year there's going to be a "Who would you trade Darren McFaddon for" thread, and Adrian Peterson's name isn't going to be on the short list.

 

[EBF]

I agree with your general point, but I think you're a little off the mark. Bush, Peterson, and Johnson really are rare prospects.

That the latter two haven't played a down of NFL football in no way diminishes their ability or eliminates the chance of them becoming perennial Pro Bowlers.

As for Peterson "disappearing," I don't find it a major concern. Sure, he had some dud games here and there, but his stats were pretty phenomenal. It's not his fault that his team was horribly outclassed by USC. Granted, the Vikings aren't going to have a talent advantage over many of the teams in the NFL, but I still don't think anyone should be worried by Peterson's college production.

Steven Jackson had a pretty weak final season in college. That can happen when you play for a mediocre program in a major conference and are the center of every opposing team's attention.

I could understand Peterson being stifled by USC. I can't understand Peterson being held to 66 yards on 23 carries (2.9 ypc)... by Texas Christian University.To be honest, I don't care how good of a PROSPECT Peterson is. I care how good of a career he's going to have. Ryan Leaf was a tremendous prospect, too, while Terrell Davis was an absolute afterthought in the draft process. Tony Mandarich and Robert Gallery were both absolute "can't-miss" guys (Gallery, in particular, was described as the safest pick in the last decade). When I'm drafting, I'm trying to maximize my chances of getting a guy who is going to have a stud NFL career, and to be honest, a former 6th rounder who rushed for 1500 yards is more likely to have a stud career than a "once-in-twenty-years talent" like Peterson. That's just simple fact, borne out time and time again by historical evidence. Guys who have proven it in the league are drastically underrated compared to unproven guys like Bush and Peterson.

In fact, Reggie Bush is the perfect example. Last season, many people valued Reggie Bush more highly than LaDanian Tomlinson. This season, people value Adrian Peterson more highly than Reggie Bush- despite the fact that Bush looked pretty darn good this past season. And as I said earlier in this thread, I suspect next year there's going to be a "Who would you trade Darren McFaddon for" thread, and Adrian Peterson's name isn't going to be on the short list.

Like I said, I don't dispute your main point. People are too eager to find the next big thing. The dynasty ADP of Drew, Bush, Addai, Maroney, and Peterson proves as much (they can't all be top 10 dynasty backs, can they?).That said, I don't think it's wise to dismiss a great prospect. I took Bush at 1.03 in a PPR dynasty draft last year. It's worked out fine.

As always, the key in any draft is to pick the best players. Sometimes the best players happen to be rookies.