Which rookie RBs have the best shot to make a fantasy impact in 2012? (1 Viewer)

[rickyg]

Hey guys. I have seen a few thread that compare 1 or 2 of the rookie rbs to each other. I'm curious to know what everyone's thoughts are on the entire class. Who do you think has the best chance to make a significant impact in fantasy for 2012 and beyond?

I'm looking at talent and opportunity here. Trent richardson is obvious. He enters camp as the undisputed starter.

Between guys like Doug Martin, David Wilson, Ronnie hillman, robert turbin...

Something tells me that it will be Ronnie Hillman who makes the biggest splash in 2012 albeit not rt away. From what I read about this kid he is an explosive, lesean McCoy type of back. He only has Willis mcgahee in front of him and mcgahee is in the wrong side of 30. I just feel like hillman will be the undisputed starter by mid season, either through a mcgahee injury or just flat out out playin him.

Who do you guys think it will be?

 

[EBF]

I'm not quite as high on Hillman as a lot of people are, but I like him more than the other second tier rookie backs like Pead and James.

I think Richardson is the guy to own, with Martin and Wilson following behind in that order.

In terms of sleepers, I like Robert Turbin and Edwin Baker from a redraft standpoint. Turbin is a good back and if Lynch misses significant time, he could force the issue. Baker might not even survive training camp, but I think he's a quality sleeper who benefits from Ryan Mathews's complete and utter lack of durability. It's almost a foregone conclusion that Mathews will miss time, so there's some incentive to look at his backups. I think Baker is a sneaky player to monitor in the preseason. If he shows some promise and makes the team, consider rostering him in deep leagues in case Mathews goes down.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Here's how I see them at the moment, looking more for redraft.

1: Trent Richardson - Undisputed starter in Cleveland.

2: Doug Martin - Good chance to be at least a 3rd down back in Tampa Bay. Could steal more touches as the season goes on.

3: David Wilson - Likely will be part of a RBBC with the Giants but shows off speed.

4: Robert Turbin - Has a chance to get some touches early but may not lock up a starting job when Lynch comes back in Seattle.

5: Ronnie Hillman - Not sold that he'll suddenly supplant McGahee. I think he has a chance to get more touches towards the 2nd half of the year but won't have impressive total year stats.

6: LaMichael James - Could fill an immediate Sproles like role but has a lot of competition, especially with a similar back in Kendall Hunter.

7: Isaiah Pead - Won't be much of a factor as long as Steven Jackson remains the starter and sticks as a 3 down RB.

8: Bernard Pierce - Pretty much stuck behind Ray Rice at the moment, similar situation to Pead.

9: Lamar Miller - Best bet is a return man but will struggle to compete with Bush and Daniel Thomas who is a solid "power" back compliment to Bush.

10: Chris Rainey - A bit of a sleeper case in Pittsburgh. Won't be a 15+ carry back but has a chance to carve out a return man/Darren Sproles like role there. Helps that Haley had a similar type multi-purpose back in McCluster in KC.

11: Cyrus Gray - Big fan of him coming out but he's stuck behind Jamaal Charles and Hillis in KC.

 

[rickyg]

Thanks for the thoughts guys. It seems like after Richardson, Martin, Wilson, hillman, and maybe turbin there is abhige drop off in this class too, no?

 

[Sweet Love]

Bilal Johnson

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

I'd put my money on Hillman and David Wilson.

 

[Sabertooth]

Running back - Doug Wilson is going to impress.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Running back - Doug Wilson is going to impress.

This could go one of two ways.

 

[DerekR]

Haha

 

[petenice15]

Running back - Doug Wilson is going to impress.

This could go one of two ways.

He's hedging his bet. I like it.

 

[zamboni]

Running back - Doug Wilson is going to impress.

This could go one of two ways.

Doug Wilson was indeed a great two-way defenseman.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

David Martin

 

[rickyg]

Yeah David Wilson and Ronnie hilan both have something in common that Doug Martin does not:

They both will be playing with elite qbs tha defense must respect. The giants offense is prolific and scores a lot and the Denver offense has the chance to be just as prolific. Plus both Wilson and hillman are playing behind rbs that are either injury prone or aging and there is a good shot that they get to start several games and at least be involved in an rbbc rt from the get.

Doug Martin could have the same opportunity but on an offense run by josh freeman who makes me barf in my mouth when I watch him play

 

[Shutout]

Its surprising to me that as much as people talk about certain players in FF as being injury-prone and assuming certain players will miss time during the year that David Wilson isn't the clear #2 on this list.

I don't like to expect injuries but there is a point where history IS a record to review and that leads me to believe that, behind Richardson, Wilson is most likely the player to be

1)called up to duty wth an injury to Bradshaw, ward, etc

2)Is on the best offensive team that could get him a lot of opportunity

3)Is on a team that clearly likes to run and plays in weather later that entices it

4)Is a very talented player that could seize an opportunity and earn a large role

I think Wilson is the one RB aside from Richardson that might have a huge impact later in the season and inthe FF playoffs. He might be in an ideal situation to be fresh and available and play just when the giants typically try to emphasize the run a bit more and, at the end of the year, other players might be banged up and the Giants may be comfortable with giving him some playing time near the end of his rookie year.

Again, i don't like to expect injuries, but wilson is also one of two rookie RBs (Hillman the other) that I can reasonably see the scenraio unfold where he might be needed for a larger portion of the year.

 

[rickyg]

Its surprising to me that as much as people talk about certain players in FF as being injury-prone and assuming certain players will miss time during the year that David Wilson isn't the clear #2 on this list. I don't like to expect injuries but there is a point where history IS a record to review and that leads me to believe that, behind Richardson, Wilson is most likely the player to be1)called up to duty wth an injury to Bradshaw, ward, etc2)Is on the best offensive team that could get him a lot of opportunity3)Is on a team that clearly likes to run and plays in weather later that entices it4)Is a very talented player that could seize an opportunity and earn a large roleI think Wilson is the one RB aside from Richardson that might have a huge impact later in the season and inthe FF playoffs. He might be in an ideal situation to be fresh and available and play just when the giants typically try to emphasize the run a bit more and, at the end of the year, other players might be banged up and the Giants may be comfortable with giving him some playing time near the end of his rookie year. Again, i don't like to expect injuries, but wilson is also one of two rookie RBs (Hillman the other) that I can reasonably see the scenraio unfold where he might be needed for a larger portion of the year.

Agreed

 

[zamboni]

Wilson intrigues me even if Bradshaw stays healthy. Coughlin probably wants to avoid overworking Bradshaw, leaving several carries available for Wilson (I'm assuming he wins the backup job over Ware/Brown/Scott).

And make no mistake, this team loves to run the ball despite Eli's vast improvement as a passer.

 

[butcher boy]

I like Martin the most. You have a situation where the new coaching staff traded up to draft this guy, combined with an underachieving back in Blount. If everything that's been said about Blount's lack of commitment/tardiness/etc. last year is true, I think it's going to take a complete 180 in attitude and pre-season performance for him to win over the coaching staff. Otherwise, I see Martin becoming the lead back fairly soon into the season.

 

[zadok]

I like Martin the most. You have a situation where the new coaching staff traded up to draft this guy, combined with an underachieving back in Blount. If everything that's been said about Blount's lack of commitment/tardiness/etc. last year is true, I think it's going to take a complete 180 in attitude and pre-season performance for him to win over the coaching staff. Otherwise, I see Martin becoming the lead back fairly soon into the season.

Yup. Schiano drafted him to be the bellcow and he will be that from week 1. Blount is the clear backup. Look at Rutgers with Ray Rice. Though Richardson is still the best of the bunch.

 

[MAC_32]

Trent Richardson - I will be looking for him in the late 1st/sometime in the 2nd in all of my drafts. I expect a top 5 back come season's end, only concern - rookie wall. On both of my dyno squads.

Doug Martin - Love the talent and situation, but usually end up with 2 RB's in rounds 1 and 2 and see the value in the 4th and 5th at WR. If I don't get 2 RB's early I'm targeting him though.

David Wilson - G Men usually take it slow with their rooks, given Wilson's issues (notably, consistency and football iq) it wouldn't surprise me if Ware shares touches with Bradshaw unless Wilson absolutely crushes camp. Doubt I'm targeting him in drafts, definitely not early ones.

Robert Turbin - I'm on record with not trusting Marshawn before his off season issues emerged, I don't love Turbin but he has my interest. Not targeting him in drafts (since I'm almost certainly not getting Marshawn) unless Lynch gets suspended.

Ronnie Hillman - McGahee is nearing the end, I like Hillman, and he's a better fit for the offense BUT he has 2 major obstacles - John Fox and his love of vets + the importance of pass pro with a brittle Manning under center. Given his ADP I'm going in other directions unless I get McGahee, likely target in 2013/end of 2012 in keepers.

LaMichael James - I think he has a meaningful role immediately, with room for more, and his ADP is friendly. Likely late round target regardless, on both of my dyno squads too.

Isaiah Pead - Not a fan of his as more than a CoP back, will serve S Jacks well in that role but don't like him as a lead guy - not targeting.

Bernard Pierce - Worthy handcuff, but that is absolutely all he is right now. Similar talent to Turbin though, and better than Pead.

Lamar Miller - Long term, really like him. Health and football IQ pushed him down in the draft, very talented. He may be 3rd in the pecking order on a bad offense right now though. Pass.

Vick Ballard - hand picked by the new regime, who has no ties to mediocre hold over's Donald Brown and Delone Carter. Not a big fan of the talent, but have to like the situation. Watching him in camp to see if he's a midseason waiver wire target.

Boom Herron - not a fan of the guy, but 2nd fiddle (Bernard Scott) to a mediocre #1 in Cincy (Law Firm) offers an opportunity if he finally realizes the potential he never tapped in college.

Alred Morris - late round Shenanigans RB? Sure, add to the watch list. I think Royster sucks, so if Hightower is as bad as many other than me think and Helu is passed over like I think he may there may some in-season waiver goodness here.

Chris Rainey - drafted to play a McCluster role in Todd Haley's offense, not much relevance for fantasy purposes so, pass.

Edwin Baker - situation to be the #2, but he was just a mediocre #2 in college. Talent's not there.

Terrance Ganaway - Similar to Baker, talent's the issue, not situation. Limited, downhill runner.

Michael Smith - I think he's more interesting than the above 2, a strong camp and he's Martin's backup - Schiano's staff doesn't seem to like Blount at all, and he hasn't given them a reason to

Chris Polk vs. Bryce Brown - competition to watch in camp for long term purposes, if LeSean McCoy's career follows a standard RB path Dion Lewis will move on at free agency and the winner between these 2 is the potential future. Nothing to see here in 2012 though.

Cyrus Gray - buried at 3rd on the depth chart, best case is he's Charles' backup in 2013. Don't think he's anything special anyway, was inconsistently decent in a defense-less college conference. Pass.

Daryl Richardson - due to my lack of faith in Pead, watching his camp for dyno purposes.

UDFA Flavor DeJour - Jewel Hampton, always liked the talent in school, just not the head or health. Monitoring camp.

 

[EBF]

Edwin Baker - situation to be the #2, but he was just a mediocre #2 in college. Talent's not there.

That's not a totally fair characterization. He had something like 1200+ rushing yards in 2010 and was viewed as a probable middle round pick before eventually losing a lot of carries to LeVeon Bell in 2011. I actually think Baker is a better NFL prospect than Bell despite the situation there. I'm not going to make any bold predictions about his pro success. The guy was a late 7th round pick. I won't be surprised if he's cut before the season even starts. However, he's got an ideal compact build for the pro game and I like his running style in highlights. Just seems like a guy who could surprise.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7m7kINPdm0

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Ronnie Hillman - McGahee is nearing the end, I like Hillman, and he's a better fit for the offense BUT he has 2 major obstacles - John Fox and his love of vets + the importance of pass pro with a brittle Manning under center. Given his ADP I'm going in other directions unless I get McGahee, likely target in 2013/end of 2012 in keepers.

This is hitting the nail on the head. They'll play someone who averages 3.0 and can block before they play a talented guy that lets Peyton get lit up.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

As far as value in 2012, I like David Wilson. Richardson and Martin are being hugely over-drafted at 12th and 39th overall; I like both guys from a talent standpoint, but Cleveland absolutely sucks on offense and TB isn't much better plus Blount actually looks like a decent enough player to merit some type of RBBC.

Wilson comes with a much more palatable price tag of 95th overall (RB38), plays for a team that should score alot of points, and is behind a player with some recurring foot issues. I don't expect Wilson to take a healthy Bradshaw's job outright, but I don't mind rolling the dice on upside 100 picks or so into a draft.

 

[MAC_32]

Edwin Baker - situation to be the #2, but he was just a mediocre #2 in college. Talent's not there.

That's not a totally fair characterization. He had something like 1200+ rushing yards in 2010 and was viewed as a probable middle round pick before eventually losing a lot of carries to LeVeon Bell in 2011. I actually think Baker is a better NFL prospect than Bell despite the situation there. I'm not going to make any bold predictions about his pro success. The guy was a late 7th round pick. I won't be surprised if he's cut before the season even starts. However, he's got an ideal compact build for the pro game and I like his running style in highlights. Just seems like a guy who could surprise.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7m7kINPdm0

Watched a lot of Sparty games and wasn't ever impressed by him. Makes some nice plays, as youtube clips will show, but throughout the course of the game he is a very ordinary runner most of the time. Not creative, elusive, over powering - nothing special. He's JAG imho.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Edwin Baker - situation to be the #2, but he was just a mediocre #2 in college. Talent's not there.

That's not a totally fair characterization. He had something like 1200+ rushing yards in 2010 and was viewed as a probable middle round pick before eventually losing a lot of carries to LeVeon Bell in 2011. I actually think Baker is a better NFL prospect than Bell despite the situation there.

EBF, you come off as a guy that does a lot of work on college prospects. Stating things like this really makes it hard to believe that.

 

[EBF]

Bell is not some kind of super elite prospect. He'll be drafted next year, but he's not much higher rated now than Baker was a year ago.

 

[MAC_32]

Bell is not some kind of super elite prospect. He'll be drafted next year, but he's not much higher rated now than Baker was a year ago.

Bell's more of a pass catching FB, he's probably not going to be anything special in the NFL. However, he was much better on the field in 2011 than Baker. That's why I take issue with Baker. A guy that's probably going to niche a role as a short end of the committee back looked much better than him last year and was rewarded with a bigger role.Even in Baker's breakout year in 2010 I didn't see anything that jumped off the page about him.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Bell is not some kind of super elite prospect. He'll be drafted next year, but he's not much higher rated now than Baker was a year ago.

So you acknowledge he's higher...which is odd considering he's a worse NFL prospect than Baker in your opinion.2011:Baker= 170 carries 665 yards 3.9 5, 5 receptions 60 yards 1 TDBell = 182 carries 948 yards 5.2 13,35 receptions 267 yards 0 TDOver the last two years:Baker= 377 carries 1866 yards 4.9 18, 8 receptions 82 yards 1 TDBell = 289 carries 1553 yards 5.3 21, 46 receptions 364 yards 0 TDAny way you want to slice it, Bell really outproduced Baker...plus this was Bell as a Fresh/Soph while Baker was a Soph/JuniorI like Bell as a prospect next season.

 

[rickyg]

Ok so after much deliberation I have decided which rb i think will have the most immediate and future succes (AFTER Trent Richardson):

Ronnie Hillman. There is nothing factual backing up my

thoughts or opinions. how could there be? No one has a crystal ball.

But after watching highlight reels on this kid and contemplatin his situation, I think Hillman has the chance to be an elite, Marshall Faulk type rb for the broncos for many years to come.

He has speed

He has great vision

He can cut on a dime

He has a tough inside running game

He is playin with Payton manning

He is behind a 31 yr old rb with a bionic knee.

He will at least see 10-12 touches per game in an rbbc with mcgahee.

He will be in a high scoring offense

My next rb after Hillman is David Wilson and maybe Doug martin is tied with Wilson. I don't necessarily think these guys are not as talented as Hillman...just don't like their situations as much.

My prediction is that after Richardson Hillman will prove to be the most valuable back in the 2012 draft class

 

[EBF]

Bell is not some kind of super elite prospect. He'll be drafted next year, but he's not much higher rated now than Baker was a year ago.

So you acknowledge he's higher...which is odd considering he's a worse NFL prospect than Baker in your opinion.2011:Baker= 170 carries 665 yards 3.9 5, 5 receptions 60 yards 1 TDBell = 182 carries 948 yards 5.2 13,35 receptions 267 yards 0 TDOver the last two years:Baker= 377 carries 1866 yards 4.9 18, 8 receptions 82 yards 1 TDBell = 289 carries 1553 yards 5.3 21, 46 receptions 364 yards 0 TDAny way you want to slice it, Bell really outproduced Baker...plus this was Bell as a Fresh/Soph while Baker was a Soph/JuniorI like Bell as a prospect next season.

Any way you slice it? Not quite.Baker had far more yards and a slightly higher YPC in 2010. Not that it means everything, either way. College production is nice, but hardly a perfect predictor of pro success. If it was, Ron Dayne would've been a Pro Bowler. The NFL and college are different games that reward different skills. Baker looks more like an NFL back to me than Bell, although Bell does some things well. I don't think Baker is some kind of stud by any means. Just an intriguing late round sleeper who could be thrust into the lineup because his team's starter is brittle.

 

[EBF]

Ok so after much deliberation I have decided which rb i think will have the most immediate and future succes (AFTER Trent Richardson):Ronnie Hillman. There is nothing factual backing up my thoughts or opinions. how could there be? No one has a crystal ball. But after watching highlight reels on this kid and contemplatin his situation, I think Hillman has the chance to be an elite, Marshall Faulk type rb for the broncos for many years to come. He has speedHe has great visionHe can cut on a dimeHe has a tough inside running game He is playin with Payton manningHe is behind a 31 yr old rb with a bionic knee. He will at least see 10-12 touches per game in an rbbc with mcgahee. He will be in a high scoring offense My next rb after Hillman is David Wilson and maybe Doug martin is tied with Wilson. I don't necessarily think these guys are not as talented as Hillman...just don't like their situations as much. My prediction is that after Richardson Hillman will prove to be the most valuable back in the 2012 draft class

Hillman is my favorite of the Pead/James/Hillman tier, but I'm taking cautious approach with him. I think Martin has everything needed to be a productive FF player. He won't have the longest career, but for the next few years there's no reason why he can't threaten top 10 RB numbers each season.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Bell is not some kind of super elite prospect. He'll be drafted next year, but he's not much higher rated now than Baker was a year ago.

So you acknowledge he's higher...which is odd considering he's a worse NFL prospect than Baker in your opinion.2011:

Baker= 170 carries 665 yards 3.9 5, 5 receptions 60 yards 1 TD

Bell = 182 carries 948 yards 5.2 13,35 receptions 267 yards 0 TD

Over the last two years:

Baker= 377 carries 1866 yards 4.9 18, 8 receptions 82 yards 1 TD

Bell = 289 carries 1553 yards 5.3 21, 46 receptions 364 yards 0 TD

Any way you want to slice it, Bell really outproduced Baker...plus this was Bell as a Fresh/Soph while Baker was a Soph/Junior

I like Bell as a prospect next season.

Any way you slice it? Not quite.Baker had far more yards and a slightly higher YPC in 2010.

Baker had twice as many yards and .1 more YPC in 2010. When Baker was a sophomore and Bell was a true freshman.

That makes up for the .4 YPC difference over a two year period? More TDs on less touches, 38 more receptions. No he is better any way you slice it at Michigan state...and he did it when he was younger than Baker.

Not that it means everything, either way. College production is nice, but hardly a perfect predictor of pro success. If it was, Ron Dayne would've been a Pro Bowler. The NFL and college are different games that reward different skills. Baker looks more like an NFL back to me than Bell, although Bell does some things well.

College production makes a difference when the two RBs were running behind the same OL over the same time period. You're really throwing out Ron Dayne stuff...

I don't think Baker is some kind of stud by any means. Just an intriguing late round sleeper who could be thrust into the lineup because his team's starter is brittle.

Bell is significantly bigger, better pass catcher, and more power. I'd say they are the same in speed/agility. Baker is quicker than Bell.I just don't see how you can come to that comparison when Bell has outproduced Baker at a younger age.