We have the game thread here - https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/dolphins-at-bills-2-5-53-5.810518/#post-24656803
But thought a poll might be fun.
But thought a poll might be fun.
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Which Side Do You Like? Dolphins at Bills -2.5 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
As I posted in the game thread, 2016 was the last outright win for Miami in Buffalo.
Thanks. How much weight do you put on that for today's game?
General Malaise
Footballguy
I like the Bills -2.5. Homefield advantage worth a FG, so laying less than that seems prudent.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Should be a really good game. Josh has pretty well owned the Dolphins other than last year’s heat game in Miami. But this isn’t the same Miami team. That offense is fantastic. Poyer being out could be a huge issue, though Rapp‘s tackling ability could help offset that loss.
I think it comes down to 2 things for Buffalo:
1. Can the DBs/defense cover and/or disrupt the timing enough for Buffalo’s tremendous D-line to get home and make Tua uncomfortable?
2. Can Josh play within the offense and keep from being hyped up trying to play Superman?
I think Buffalo’s defensive front is something that the Fins haven’t had to deal with yet and the Miami defense is going to really have their hands full. But Buffalo does tend to give up big plays and Miami excels at that.
I think it comes down to 2 things for Buffalo:
1. Can the DBs/defense cover and/or disrupt the timing enough for Buffalo’s tremendous D-line to get home and make Tua uncomfortable?
2. Can Josh play within the offense and keep from being hyped up trying to play Superman?
I think Buffalo’s defensive front is something that the Fins haven’t had to deal with yet and the Miami defense is going to really have their hands full. But Buffalo does tend to give up big plays and Miami excels at that.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I like the Bills from a betting perspective on this one.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
As someone posted in our Eagles thread. If you bet with the trend, you can only lose once. If you bet against the trend, you can lose forever.
The Dolphins just dropped 70 points on an NFL team and they're underdogs. This is a Bills line.
Hugsy_Malone
Footballguy
Long December and there's reason to believe
Maybe this year will be better than the last
If you're not up on Adam Duritz, then I suggest probability. Each game is independent of the last game.
I've got Miami to win outright.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
So Buffalo actually has sort of weird run defense numbers. It’s actually been somewhat of a trend for a while for them and I’m sure has to do with how they play defense plus also having guys who are smaller linebackers and DBs who aren’t great tacklers.
The Bills actually lead the league in run stuff percentage. They hold RBs to no gain or a loss more than any other defense. But for running backs that make it passed the defensive line, they are among the worst at how many yards they give up passed the LOS.
We’ll see how that plays out today, but IMO it’s likely a problem for the Bills since Miami’s RBs are so explosive and can gain a ton of yards passed the LOS. It’s especially dangerous since McDaniels does such an amazing job getting guys into space.
Miami has key injuries at Center, Connor Williams, #3 per PFF replaced by Liam Eichenberg who never played C in a game until last week. Plus DeShon Elliot at SS, replaced by Brandon Jones recovering from a 2022 ACL. Phillips who wrecked havoc on the Bills in 2022 is out, although AVG has been playing well.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Favour Miami at that line. Fortunately my book has the line at 3, which is much, much better
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
You aren't a trend guy, that's ok. Here are some more trends:
- Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
- Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
- Buffalo is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
titusbramble
Footballguy
With the level of churn that NFL rosters have, I am not sure why you are going back that far with the Bills winning straight up against them. I wonder who they drafted in 2018 that could have caused you to pick that specific cutoff
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Cook/Murray need to show up big.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Believe I read that a runner hasn't scored against the Bills this year?
Yes, on Yahoo: Raheem Mostert has scored in every game for the Dolphins this season, but in Week 4, he'll get a Bills defense that has yet to allow a running back to reach the end zone in 2023.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
While true, that’s really only because their CB Christian Benford chased down a not quite 100% Breece Hall when Hall ripped off an 83 yard run and ran out of gas at the end.
Thanks. I'm interested in how those trends say it's a 2 point win for Buffalo. Can you elaborate?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It says Miami has been good against the spread and Buffalo has been good straight up. So if the spread is BUF -2.5 then those trends say Buffalo will win the game but not cover. So that's where I got the 2 points from.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Turning into a bloodbath.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Bills pretty much nailed both of my keys today. Very well played confident game from them.
Interesting. Thanks.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
For the record, I picked Buffalo -2.5. Even though the trends said that Miami was good ATS, because I thought Buffalo was going to win outright and the spread was under 3, I would have just played the BUF money line in this game.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Prior to the game I was able to punch Bills to win the East at +145, figuring if they win the game they are in good position. Still feel good but should have taken the easier quick cash from this matchup.
renesauz
IBL Representative
missed this conversation since I was in bed asleep, but was listening to a guy on Sirius this morning on my way home from work. An amazing stat he quoted: Of the 8 teams that have scored 60 or more points in an NFL game, 6 of them LOST the following week, and 7 of them failed to cover.
THAT was a trend worth paying attention to
THAT was a trend worth paying attention to
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Used up all their points in one week.
Interesting.
Interesting. You spent a lot of time talking about the trends and how they said Buffalo will win by 2 but not cover. "So if the spread is BUF -2.5 then those trends say Buffalo will win the game but not cover. So that's where I got the 2 points from."
But you bet the other side?
Why ignore what you said the trends were saying would happen?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
It feels like one of those "I picked the team that covered" posts after the game is over. Pretty easy to say when the game is over.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yeah a couple of us also mentioned this on the first page of the game thread. Teams do tend to bounce after a huge game like what the Dolphins did.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Sure thing. Go into the game thread. That's where Joe said he like Miami and the points. At 11:22 am I replied:
After that, Joe started this thread. In the poll I picked Buffalo -2.5. Then at 12:27 pm I wrote:
I don't bet anymore, but when I did I used trends a lot. I like bigger trends which is why the Buffalo 9-1 SU against Miami in their last 10 was the best trend I posted. The other trends were smaller sample sizes and they weren't specific to the matchup of the 2 teams playing. The trends said that Miami would cover the 2 but lose the game. I was fairly certain Buffalo was going to win the game based on the spread. So if I was betting, I would have either teased the Bills or bet the Bills money line but I wouldn't lay the 2.5. I certainly wouldn't have bet Miami getting 2.5.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
This is a good trend.
Looking at the poll above ~58% of the voters were on Buffalo and only ~35% were on Miami.
That's what I mean. You went to pretty great lengths to say the trends said Bills win by 2 and don't cover.
But you picked Bills minus 2.5 in the poll. That just seemed interesting to me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
wish I’d seen this. I bet $100 on the Bills, so that’s my belated vote. For me that’s “strongly”
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Good hedge, if nothing else.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Because when the spread is under 3 so at that point, I'm just trying to pick the team I think will win the game. All the SU trends favored the Bills. If the Dolphins were getting 3.5 points, I would have considered betting them, but I'm not betting the Dolphins because I think the Bills will win the game but only by 1 or 2 points. At that point, I'm just going to bet the Bills money line or tease the Bills down.
Thanks. This is why I don't bet.
Just way too much, "All the trends say that Bills should win by one or two and not cover the 2.5 points but on the poll question of which side to take, I do the opposite and take the Bills to cover".
I know it's more complicated than that but that's what happened here.
And I don't mean to be badgering you on this. This isn't about you. My point is the gambling scene is so wild in there's always a "well, actually..." part to it that's not what they said to start.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Interesting to read all of this. I don’t do sports betting either, but my simple way of looking at this was there were two trends competing here……Bills win SU, Dolphins cover ATS. The problem with that is if you believe both trends, to bet it you are basically counting on the Bills to win by either 1 or 2 pts. That seems absurd to bank on, so at that point the honest answer is you have to pick which trend you believe more strongly. To your point Joe, I’m not sure why it isn’t framed that simply. “I believe the Bills SU trend more than the Miami ATS trend.”
If I’m misinterpreting, my bad. Just was scrolling and this topic caught my eye. Thanks for the interesting posts on this.
In the game thread and the Miami thread was some useful info. Miami missing its best olineman, Connor Williams, replaced by Liam Eichenberg who's been atrocious at LT and LG and never played a game at C until last week. I said that alone was worth 1-2 points. Miami missing its best pass rusher, Phillips, and SS. Plus, doubt about Fangio as a d-coordinator. You saw why, he left Kodou on an island vs Diggs many times. And BUF missing Poyer, who many said wasn't a big deal since he had been playing poorly.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
That's exactly what I'm saying. Which is why I would have gone Bills money line or a teased the points down so the Bills only had to win.
But that's exactly what you count on when you're making a bet and the line is 2.5.
Exactly. Just way too much playing both sides of the game with "this is what will happen but I'm going to bet this will not happen" (someone (not you) saying Bills will win by 2 and not cover but then they vote in the poll they'd take the side of Bills -2.5). The gambling world just seems filled with that.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sort of. You are also counting on the possibility that the team getting 2.5 points wins outright (not just loses but beats the spread). And in this case the poster in question had a strong thesis that Buffalo would win. That was his explicit view. So the only way both things (Bills win, Dolphins cover) could happen is if the Bills won by 1 or 2 pts.
As opposed to a rando like me betting Miami would have thought “well, they could lose by 1 or 2, they could tie, or win outright and I’m golden!”
But there's way more to it. For games against the spread obviously, you have to say how much they'd win by. Buffalo would win by no more than 2 and would not cover the 2.5 was the explicit view.
Sure. That was the other side. And for the record, that's the side I was on! So I would have lost by a mile if I'd bet.
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